Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hamza2424]

Debt time bomb

Tick...tick....tick.....

Biden borrowing binge driving ‘unsustainable’ rise in global debts, warns IMF
https://uk.yahoo.com/style/biden-borrowing-binge-driving-unsustainable-175346283.html

I made a post on it a few weeks back in time here, this Tick....tick is going to end sooner, and the worst-case scenario we are going to face gonna destroy the whole economic cycle. It really doesn't matter now the gap is too big $32.6 trillion to $23.32 trillion.
Any chances of Bitcoin standards ??

[1714230986]

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[1714230986]

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[1714230986]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

almost 10 years of bitcoin for me.. .. life before bitcoin and life after getting into bitcoin.

My 10 year anniversary in bitcoin is in May 2024. Hopefully we have an approved spot ETF by then & an ATH maybe.

I was a fresh faced mid 20’s noob back then. I have done very well from bitcoin but my God, it ages you.

Haha weird, but my birthday falls in May, and the surprise or gift you're considering could very well be the most remarkable birthday present. Speaking of gifts, there's a promising prospect on the horizon – the approval of a Bitcoin ETF by April 2024. This will mark my fourth year of being involved with Bitcoin, which, in its own right, feels like being an early adopter. But regardless, I can't wait to see what the future holds! for me & BTCitcoiner

There are so many folks who have not yet gotten into bitcoin, so for sure making it through a full cycle is nearly putting you at OG status... give it another 10 years, and you will likely really be starting to feel that you have been a bitcoiner for like forever, especially since I suspect that we may well still be having half or more of the population without any or hardly any exposure to BTC... and sure it is hard to say what the level of BTC's adoption will be in the next 10 years - perhaps in the 10% to 20% range?  That would be bullish.. ...  

I would like to be surprised with higher levels of adoption.. and so many crazy things could end up happening in the next 10 years.. and I hate having doom and gloom thoughts.. so maybe it is just easier taking one day (step) at a time.

Have you reached your BTC accumulation goal, then if not keep accumulating.

If you are in your maintenance stage, you might be accumulating and liquidating.. so attempting to keep some kind of a meaningful balance.. not easy with such a volatile asset.. even when some of us feel that we have decent systems in place.. we still might have some questions regarding how to manage/maintain it.

You could just leave your various shitcoins on that old seed, too... and in that way, if you ever wanted to access the shitcoins, you would just restore your old seed onto your ledger.. which would be wiping your new seed, reinstall your old seed, do whatever transactions you want to do with your shitcoins, and then reinstalling your new seed.. to the extent that you did not follow the earlier suggestion of just buying more than one ledger.. so in some sense I personally believe that it is is better to have aa few different hardware wallets around... even if some of them might cost a bit of money... but if you can buy some expensive spectacles to capture dee neanderlands in dee skies, you likely could afford an extra hardware wallet or two.. and presuming that you have more than 0.00419312 BTC that you are securing.  #nohomo

It's not the cost. I was struggling buying a second ledger, beause i had mixed experiences with my first one. It was a present for my wife, but she didn't use it, so i asked her to use it for backup. The second one has one of the buttons not going as smooth as the other one. However, i was interested in Trezor in the past, too. I don't remember which reason exactly kept me from buying one, in the end. Personally, i wouldn't have any problems intermediately (if that is even correct english?) storing my Bitcoin "on paper" and distributing them to future hardware wallets. I'm generally curious, so i guess i will use other different hardware wallet solutions in the future, too.

Today, Trezor just announced a new hardware wallet (Trezor Safe 3) that seems to be quite competitively priced.. ... They are accepting orders, and it is supposed to start to ship in mid-November.

https://trezor.io/trezor-safe-3

I still have some troubles understanding how a hardware wallet with a secure element could be open source.  If anyone can explain or even point to some sources, that would be something that I would be interested in hearing a bit more about how that can be done.

Site was down for almost three hours and its also confirmed by ChartBuddy since he missed three slots of posting at:
07:01 AM
08:01 AM
09;01 AM
Site is back and so ChartBuddy next chart will appear at 10:01AM

Did "we" miss anything during that "down" time?  besides chartbuddy?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[danadc]

Can this CPI actually affect the price of BTC that much? Here is an article that talks about how important it is, although I think that the price of Bitcoin moves in other ways:

On Oct. 12, the September print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) bolstered the trend, coming in at 3.7% year-on-year versus 3.6% expected. Less food and energy, the tally was 4.1% — matching forecasts.

“The all items index increased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, the same increase as the 12 months ending in August,” an official press release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed.

    “The all items less food and energy index rose 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending September, and the food index increased 3.7 percent over the last year.”

Reacting, financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter nonetheless emphasized the tight spot in which monetary policy — and the Federal Reserve — now found itself.

Original Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-cpi-btc-price-tackling-26-8-k}

Even so, with all this, I think that the price of bitcoin can rise to $30k, it may be that inflation has a very bad effect on fiat money, but this is Bitcoin, it is another world.

They say it can lower the price to "$24k-$35k" but that's what they've Been saying since the beginning of the year , it's not worth the points. I see them as excuses because they don't really know when bitcoin has a real effect due to some type of event in the market. world , I am Governed more by Israel's war than if it Affects me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

Site was down for almost three hours and its also confirmed by ChartBuddy since he missed three slots of posting at:
07:01 AM
08:01 AM
09;01 AM
Site is back and so ChartBuddy next chart will appear at 10:01AM

Did "we" miss anything during that "down" time?  besides chartbuddy?

That's really a good question.
During 'down' time no one posted anything so we didn't missed anything AFAIK.


Meanwhile, ChartBuddy is still at number 2 in terms of Post count. philipma1957, is at number one in terms of post count.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hamza2424]

There are so many folks who have not yet gotten into bitcoin, so for sure making it through a full cycle is nearly putting you at OG status... give it another 10 years, and you will likely really be starting to feel that you have been a bitcoiner for like forever, especially since I suspect that we may well still be having half or more of the population without any or hardly any exposure to BTC... and sure it is hard to say what the level of BTC's adoption will be in the next 10 years - perhaps in the 10% to 20% range?  That would be bullish.. ...  

I would like to be surprised with higher levels of adoption.. and so many crazy things could end up happening in the next 10 years.. and I hate having doom and gloom thoughts.. so maybe it is just easier taking one day (step) at a time.

Have you reached your BTC accumulation goal, then if not keep accumulating.

If you are in your maintenance stage, you might be accumulating and liquidating.. so attempting to keep some kind of a meaningful balance.. not easy with such a volatile asset.. even when some of us feel that we have decent systems in place.. we still might have some questions regarding how to manage/maintain it.

As I'm here for the rest of my life I will keep counting on Bitcoin, In the coming cycle I'm sure around 20% to 30% population is gonna recognize Bitcoin as their priority.

Bitcoin accumulation goal, you mean that amount well for now I am not sure about what should be the specific number you can say untill now it's X, but I'm on the way.

Hmm, it's hard to say but with the passage of time my physiology about Bitcoin and the market is much more mature now, so most of the time I can say I've done well in handling the fear & FOMO.

[Hueristic]

Today, Trezor just announced a new hardware wallet (Trezor Safe 3) that seems to be quite competitively priced.. ... They are accepting orders, and it is supposed to start to ship in mid-November.

https://trezor.io/trezor-safe-3

I still have some troubles understanding how a hardware wallet with a secure element could be open source.  If anyone can explain or even point to some sources, that would be something that I would be interested in hearing a bit more about how that can be done.

That's a good question and should be answerable by anyone that decides to trust a hardware wallet and if they cant then they are doing it wrong.

Another good question is why a server at ledger headquarters failing under load stops ledger users from being able to transact.
https://twitter.com/P3b7_/status/1590578730702761984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw



Here is a good read that explains alot of fundamentals in an easy to digest manner.

https://bitbox.swiss/blog/best-of-both-worlds-using-a-secure-chip-with-open-source-firmware/



One thing I have noticed when doing this type research in the past is I don't like any company that forces the use of javascript on their site yet pro-ports to sell you a security device for your life savings.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

That's why i asked ledger to delete my personal data from their servers immediately after delivery. I couldn't believe they had customer data hacked off their webshop server. What a no-go. It's impossible to compare this case to paper wallet security. A security device shouldn't get bricked too easily, imo.
I don't consider ledger products as perfect or even close, but they had the best suited and available ones at the time i decided to use a hardware wallet.

It dumbfounds me to believe anyone can trust ledger after this but then again I could never understand anyone ever adding trust into a specifically designed trustless system in the first place.

legder is the worst... no bitcoiner should buy their product imo

[JayJuanGee]

There are so many folks who have not yet gotten into bitcoin, so for sure making it through a full cycle is nearly putting you at OG status... give it another 10 years, and you will likely really be starting to feel that you have been a bitcoiner for like forever, especially since I suspect that we may well still be having half or more of the population without any or hardly any exposure to BTC... and sure it is hard to say what the level of BTC's adoption will be in the next 10 years - perhaps in the 10% to 20% range?  That would be bullish.. ...  

I would like to be surprised with higher levels of adoption.. and so many crazy things could end up happening in the next 10 years.. and I hate having doom and gloom thoughts.. so maybe it is just easier taking one day (step) at a time.

Have you reached your BTC accumulation goal, then if not keep accumulating.

If you are in your maintenance stage, you might be accumulating and liquidating.. so attempting to keep some kind of a meaningful balance.. not easy with such a volatile asset.. even when some of us feel that we have decent systems in place.. we still might have some questions regarding how to manage/maintain it.

As I'm here for the rest of my life I will keep counting on Bitcoin, In the coming cycle I'm sure around 20% to 30% population is gonna recognize Bitcoin as their priority.

Holy shit, Hamza2424.

You know that a cycle is ONLY 4 years long?

And, sure maybe "we" could give you a wee bit of a benefit of a doubt and to suggest that you really meant two cycles.. this cycle and the next one, but that still ONLY gets you 8 years under the most generous of interpretations of your own words.

Maybe in the last almost 15 years we have gone from zero to 1%.. and gosh are we being generous with even thinking that 1% of the world's population somehow has some exposure to bitcoin that would mean that bitcoin is a priority for them?..

I have my doubts, but it is not easy to measure bitcoin adoption.. but we could say that 1% of the worlds population is right around 80 million people... so in the next 4-8 years you are suggesting that bitcoin adoption is going to be 20x to 30x that number.. which, with the same quantity of world's population would be 1.6 billion to 2.4 billion.

you seem to be a bit optimistic, and I cannot completely fault you with that because they numbers do seem to be reachable, but I question reaching them in a 4-8 year time horizon - even if we could realistically and reasonable figure out how to measure being in bitcoin in such a way that it is "a priority" for those who are in it.  On that side note, it is almost like you would be creating too many requirements.. because bitcoin accumulators/HODLers could go about the process in a variety of ways and even if they might have had created something like 1% to 25% as their bitcoin allocation level, there would be a lot of variance in terms of how to manage that too... and are we able to call some kinds of behaviors more in line with "putting BTC as a priority" than other kinds of behaviors?

Bitcoin accumulation goal, you mean that amount well for now I am not sure about what should be the specific number you can say untill now it's X, but I'm on the way.
 

Well, maybe it is worth it to attempt to clarify this point.. but the accumulation amount is surely going to depend upon your own situation, goal and timeline. .. and this might be another good reason to refer to my entry-level fuck you status chart.  Check this out: 

Entry-level Fuck you status chart - attempt to prognosticate.
BTC_Price Bottom Start $                    StartDate               Gain/Time(days)                 FU Status Goal                
                               $46.41                    6/1/14                    182.6 (6 mos)                       $2,000,000

(Date)	(RL_Price)	(BTC Bottom)	(%gain/time)	(% Rate ∆)	($ Amount ∆)	(#Coins/FU Status)
06/01/2023	$26,820	$26,043.89	23.36%	95.00%	$6,083.52	76.7934437
11/30/2023		$32,127.40	22.19%	95.00%	$7,129.32	62.2521586
05/31/2024		$39,256.73	21.08%	95.00%	$8,275.81	50.9466784
11/29/2024		$47,532.53	20.03%	95.00%	$9,519.43	42.0764474
05/31/2025		$57,051.96	19.03%	95.00%	$10,854.60	35.0557632
11/30/2025		$67,906.56	18.07%	95.00%	$12,273.79	29.4522355
05/31/2026		$80,180.35	17.17%	95.00%	$13,767.61	24.9437674
11/30/2026		$93,947.96	16.31%	95.00%	$15,325.04	21.2883814
05/31/2027		$109,273.00	15.5%	95.00%	$16,933.66	18.3027829
11/30/2027		$126,206.66	14.88%	96.00%	$18,775.49	15.8470242
05/31/2028		$144,982.15	14.28%	96.00%	$20,705.93	13.7948016
11/29/2028		$165,688.09	13.71%	96.00%	$22,716.57	12.0708737
05/31/2029		$188,404.66	13.16%	96.00%	$24,797.87	10.6154487
11/29/2029		$213,202.53	12.64%	96.00%	$26,939.30	9.38075172
05/31/2030		$240,141.83	12.13%	96.00%	$29,129.50	8.32841159
11/30/2030		$269,271.34	11.64%	96.00%	$31,356.43	7.42745218
05/31/2031		$300,627.76	11.18%	96.00%	$33,607.54	6.65274557
11/30/2031		$334,235.31	10.73%	96.00%	$35,869.99	5.98380823
05/30/2032		$370,105.30	10.3%	96.00%	$38,130.76	5.40386749
11/29/2032		$408,236.06	9.99%	97.00%	$40,797.47	4.89912626
05/31/2033		$449,033.53	9.69%	97.00%	$43,528.37	4.45401037
11/29/2033		$492,561.90	9.4%	97.00%	$46,315.48	4.06040337
05/31/2034		$538,877.38	9.12%	97.00%	$49,150.40	3.71141947
11/29/2034		$588,027.79	8.85%	97.00%	$52,024.35	3.40119980
05/31/2035		$640,052.14	8.58%	97.00%	$54,928.27	3.12474543
........
05/31/2038		$1,013,573	7.15%	97.00%	$72,455.00	1.97321752
...........
11/29/2043		$1,960,433	5.27%	98.00%	$103,375.00	1.02018279
.................
11/28/2048		$3,139,783	4.31%	98.00%	$135,277	0.63698674
.................
05/29/2056		$5,639,679	3.67%	99.00%	$206,870	0.35463011

and surely we don't necessarily need to use my numbers.. in order to figure out our goals... but let's say that you have been aggressively accumulating BTC since mid-2020, and you have accumulated close to 3 BTC; however, when you look at the chart (or whatever your own chart), you see that you probably are going to need a minimum of 4 BTC in 10 years in order to really feel that you are at entry-level fuck you status, so maybe you continue to aggressively accumulate BTC and in the next 5 years, you are able to accumulate another 3 BTC bringing your total portfolio to 6 BTC, so thereafter you largely feel that you have reached (and surpassed) your BTC accumulation goal, and you have a bit of a cushion (perhaps 2 BTC greater than the amount that you believe that you need by the end of 2033... even though nothing is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia).

So what you going to do?

You surely are going to feel more free the closer and closer that you get to reaching your BTC accumulation goal, but you are also going to likely feel a bit of freedom once you surpass your goal and you might even start to play around a bit more with your surplus BTC because you have a bit of a cushion, and if you are smart and focused about it, maybe you will play around with any BTC that surpasses 5 BTC because you even want to keep a 1 BTC cushion from your bottom line amount that you believe that you need to have by the end of 2033 in order to be at entry-level fuck you status whether you use my chart or some other potentially reasonable chart.

Hmm, it's hard to say but with the passage of time my physiology about Bitcoin and the market is much more mature now, so most of the time I can say I've done well in handling the fear & FOMO.

I think that you are referring to psychology, right?

I agree that the more that you have a plan and the more that you attempt to stick with your plan, then the more likely you are going to gain confidence and/or comfort from that, and you might have even come to realize that so long as you keep your goals reasonable, prudent, conservative and something in your own grasp to achieve, then likely you have ended up surpassing your own goals in a variety of ways.

Today, Trezor just announced a new hardware wallet (Trezor Safe 3) that seems to be quite competitively priced.. ... They are accepting orders, and it is supposed to start to ship in mid-November.
https://trezor.io/trezor-safe-3
I still have some troubles understanding how a hardware wallet with a secure element could be open source.  If anyone can explain or even point to some sources, that would be something that I would be interested in hearing a bit more about how that can be done.

That's a good question and should be answerable by anyone that decides to trust a hardware wallet and if they cant then they are doing it wrong.

Another good question is why a server at ledger headquarters failing under load stops ledger users from being able to transact.
https://twitter.com/P3b7_/status/1590578730702761984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Here is a good read that explains alot of fundamentals in an easy to digest manner.

https://bitbox.swiss/blog/best-of-both-worlds-using-a-secure-chip-with-open-source-firmware/

One thing I have noticed when doing this type research in the past is I don't like any company that forces the use of javascript on their site yet pro-ports to sell you a security device for your life savings.

I am not going to claim to have understood that... but at least there's some information that I might want to look at more closely - even though it is another brand.. and a bit of a promotional piece. for BitBox02.. and I haver heard some good things about that HW wallet, too.

[philipma1957]

R.I.P. Lois Lane from 1950's Tv show she was the last one to go.

[Taskford]

There are so many folks who have not yet gotten into bitcoin, so for sure making it through a full cycle is nearly putting you at OG status... give it another 10 years, and you will likely really be starting to feel that you have been a bitcoiner for like forever, especially since I suspect that we may well still be having half or more of the population without any or hardly any exposure to BTC... and sure it is hard to say what the level of BTC's adoption will be in the next 10 years - perhaps in the 10% to 20% range?  That would be bullish.. ...  

I would like to be surprised with higher levels of adoption.. and so many crazy things could end up happening in the next 10 years.. and I hate having doom and gloom thoughts.. so maybe it is just easier taking one day (step) at a time.

Have you reached your BTC accumulation goal, then if not keep accumulating.

If you are in your maintenance stage, you might be accumulating and liquidating.. so attempting to keep some kind of a meaningful balance.. not easy with such a volatile asset.. even when some of us feel that we have decent systems in place.. we still might have some questions regarding how to manage/maintain it.

As I'm here for the rest of my life I will keep counting on Bitcoin, In the coming cycle I'm sure around 20% to 30% population is gonna recognize Bitcoin as their priority.

Bitcoin accumulation goal, you mean that amount well for now I am not sure about what should be the specific number you can say untill now it's X, but I'm on the way.

Hmm, it's hard to say but with the passage of time my physiology about Bitcoin and the market is much more mature now, so most of the time I can say I've done well in handling the fear & FOMO.

All of us would provably stay here because we already know the potential of bitcoin and high chance that we can get more better by having bitcoin then use it for investment and other more. For sure in future many people will notice it especially that bitcoin is gaining more popularity due to recent news that it gaining a lot of hypes due to its potential profit for investments, for sure this upcoming bull run can catch many peoples attention maybe they join and became accumulator to test the market.

That's why i asked ledger to delete my personal data from their servers immediately after delivery. I couldn't believe they had customer data hacked off their webshop server. What a no-go. It's impossible to compare this case to paper wallet security. A security device shouldn't get bricked too easily, imo.
I don't consider ledger products as perfect or even close, but they had the best suited and available ones at the time i decided to use a hardware wallet.

It dumbfounds me to believe anyone can trust ledger after this but then again I could never understand anyone ever adding trust into a specifically designed trustless system in the first place.

legder is the worst... no bitcoiner should buy their product imo

Its just a waste of money lol 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com