$36k is chopper time. $35k was yesterday.
Did we do $35k yesterday? Damn I missed it!!
A quickie, but a goodie.
That's so cute...
Really! But don't you dare buy it with BTC, because it will soon be the most expensive (yet still cute) mug you've ever owned.
That does kind of provoke a bit of a question regarding how afraid any of us might be in terms of spending any of our BTC at times that might be less than desirable... ... I am remembering at some point in 2020 or so, I posted about never wanting to sell any BTC below $5k, and so long as the BTC price is above $5k, then it is just a matter of how much I might sell at any given time, and then how urgent that I might consider it to be to replace the BTC that I sold, for example if I am perceiving that I am selling in a dip rather than in a rip.
Replace or don't replace, and if we are starting to play the waves a bit, then aren't we always going to have plenty of cash too? It seems that I have almost as much cash as is worth my whole BTC portfolio that is just available for me to do whatever I want, whether I buy BTC when the price dips or just keeping such cash in reserves.. so in some sense, the cash continues to build up with the passage of time, even when the BTC price is bouncing around.. even though I will admit that I was starting to feel nervous about how much cash I had once the BTC price dropped below $22k in June 2022.. so there was likely around 8 months or more that I was feeling a bit tight on cash.. which maybe if more time passes, systems can be put into place in order to create greater cushions in order to not feel as cash constrained as I was feeling between June 2022 and maybe around January/February 2023.. .but even those outrageous BIG DIPpity times of bitcoin did not feel as bad as the late 2018 dip... and even though March 2020 was a bit stressful, that did not even feel so bad since it ended up playing out pretty quickly, relatively speaking, even if there were several weeks of uncomfortableness.
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It surely can be difficult for HODLers to continue to HODL when the see BTC prices like we saw in the last couple of days and even once you add up the last month or so, and so HODLers frequently get so excited and even the more self-restrained of them will sometimes be able to hold out until the new ATH or even sell within 20% or so of the ATH to the upside and conjecture that they are "killing it" when they thereafter end up getting reckt through their opportunity cost losses that are subsequently shown by their selling too much too soon.. and sure it is almost inevitable that some folks are going to become statistics.
Agreed. This is not a time for selling (unless one
has to, etc., etc.). Selling now would be tantamount to missing the upcoming (time scale of months) pre-/post-halving price appreciation that history has shown to be a near certainty. Well, whatever makes one happy... I think it's also a stash threshold/marine species/citadel residence level issue. Those with big stashes would not mind selling even relatively large amounts of corn (but still a fraction of their total stash), while those with few coins of even less than a whole coin may not want to give those precious few sats away just yet...
I'd say that those with 100+ BTC would be fine selling up to 5 BTC for expenses and indulgences. Life's short. Anything in the double/single digits would better be HeDL and even topped up if this is possible. All this is better explained using your $2M fuck-you status analysis, which I'm a fan of. I think there is a post of yours with a long table--don't have the link handy now--which explains it nicely.
Yes. I cite my chart pretty frequently, so I keep it on predial (or is it speed dial?).
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591I am thinking that you will be a fan of my new chart too, if I ever get to posting it.
It's a bit complicated, but it provides a spending formula in reference to how close to (or far away from) the 200-week moving average the price might be... and of course, people could plug in their own numbers... and I keep talking about it, but I just haven't pulled the trigger in posting it. Yet.
Again, $2M can vary from fuck-you for some, to fuck-me for others, and corn price also changes (generally rises) with time, so these numbers are not really constant, which is equivalent to octopuses still being octopuses, but feeling like fishes, etc. etc. So it's all kind of relative, adaptive and progressing. And this progression is more positive for those with a bigger stash (value appreciation), and more negative for those with a very small or no stash (more difficult to accumulate--same fiat buys less BTC). An informed decision to sell or to buy or to HoDL has to take at least the above factors into account, and not just listen to one's lower brain that tends to want a LHB-type gratification.
Probably part of the key to the whole thing is to see it in light of the 200-week moving average and to realize that the amount of cushion that any of us might need between getting into entry-level fuck you status and even having some extra value to be 1.5x or 2x or even 5x fuck you status could be quite exhilarating .. even with the presumption that we can tweak around the threshold numbers if we believe that our entry level into fuck you status might be at a lower price point or perhaps at a higher price point... but even with the 200-week moving up a bit slower than anticipated, it is still getting back up to moving up $17 per day.. so we can continue to see the number of coins that we need to be in entry level fuck you status is pretty close to being on track with my chart, even though I might have to adjust it a bit, yet by the end of November 2023, we are seeing just over $32k as our 200-week moving average price which means only a bit more than 62 coins to be at entry level fuck you status (for those wanting to use $2 million as their guide),
and when just two years earlier in November 2021 we would have needed to have more than 153 coins to be at entry level fuck you status.. even though surely the BTC spot price was much higher at that time, we still should be able to appreciate that we could end up getting deceived by spot price, unless we figure out some ways to manage that.. which surely many of us may well be nervous about shaving off too many BTC, especially while we might still be building our number of coins. and your example of someone with 100 BTC surely would be someone with a decent BTC cushion and would have entered into entry-level fuck you status right around late 2022. .and event though not quite 2x entry level fuck you status, probably still should not be having a lot to worry about, even if s/he might want to completely live off his/her bitcoin with the $2million being as a guideline that produces right around $6,666 per month of passive income, meaning that s/he should feel no problems shaving off $6,666 per month, whether s/he chooses to do it month by month or yearly or quarterly or maybe choosing to do it on rips. .which is part of what my upcoming chart is supposed to be about.
It's just a few months before the next halving. Not a long time. I'd wait it out, let it happen and re-evaluate things in late 2024.
That is the thing.. the actual halvening will likely take several months for the effects to be felt.. but at the same time, there could be some attempts to manipulate and/or price it in before the effects are actually felt in more concrete kinds of ways, and so I would not even be surprised if patterns might end up getting broken just to attempt to throw people off, even though in the whole scheme of things, we still might be able to take some advantages of some of the either premature ejaculations or even the purposeful dump attempts that might cause some folks to get reckt, and surely usually the BIGGER players have ways to protect themselves, they also sometimes might suffer some pretty BIG damages if they try to play around too much with the honey badger.
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