Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[WatChe]

I'm a bit cautious when after such a price pump we are so flat for almost a week. Often that ends with a bart down.
But lets see

Have a nice week ahead everyone.

On a lighter note, this 34k support be like ...


Image from reddit

[JayJuanGee]

ah ha!!!!!!!

I see an admission, there.  

First things first - you “see” shit.

Oh my, aren't you all worked up over nothing.

Secondly, what are you referring to? The “troll” part, or what can they achieve against an army of professional liars?

I kind of wished that you would have had said "professional trolls" and "liars" rather than "trolls" and "professional liars," then at least you would have had been more accurate in your descriptive attempts at a snipe.

Thirdly, I didn’t admit to anything - it was a sarcastic statement.

You are digging ur lil selfie in deeper and moar deeper.

Don't you have anything better to do?  Weren't you at least going through a prior stage of describing some of your "hot babes" experiences?  Have your hot babe experiences run dry?  Maybe the hot babes got annoyed with your personality?  or lack thereof.  hahahahahaha

Maybe work on getting back to improving your hot babe experiences, then at least you might be able to cheer up ur lil selfie and maybe even produce some off-spring, not that I should encourage such things, in your case it might be better to NOT enable you in that direction.

If true, that seems neither "sweet" nor unusual enough to be pointed out as any kind of a "gotcha."

Please

'splain

selfie.

Jay, Juan and Gee, I’m not really into debating with AI’s.

Ok.  don't then.. No problema.

That said, what amazes me about your registration date, is how advanced AI’s are in the private and military sector.
In short, chatGPT my ass.

Again, you are back to being sweet.

Can you make up your mind about whether you would like to be sweet or you would like to be the lil turd that is in your more true nature (or are you just acting like a little turd because your that's how your handlers prefer it).

Why not actually get involved with some substantive discussions of lillie fiend, rather than trying to be a lillie fiend wannabe... This lillie fiend wannabe is not really working so well for you anyhow, is it?

[edited out]

To clarifiy, I don't use any shamir secret sharing or similar tech as you seem to assume.

Sure, I might have misunderstood, but I was not presuming the use of shamir.. I was merely presuming having a seed and then splitting it into two parts.. So I may well have had been confused about what it was/is that you were/are doing.  Accordingly, I thought that they were in plain text, so maybe partially I was asking for myself, but also for anyone else who might not have understood what you meant by what seemed to have had been a back up that was split into two parts.

The backup and the "original" are fully identical. Before writing it down I just xor the original 2048bit key that results in a valid seed for electrum with a password and store that value as BIP39 encoded seed words. Xor that again with the valid password and you get the original and valid electrum seed back.

I tried to look up Xor but I don't really understand what that is.. I guess it is creating a hash and then reverse hash or something like that, so yeah, maybe I am missing something in regards to what you are doing since I don't really know how to xor anything... at least not so far in my bitcoin journey (or otherwise in my personal life - not that I know about.. maybe I had been XORing things without realizing that was what I was doing all this time).

Regarding the other (very valid) concerns like storing in different locations etc. that you bring up, these have been well considered and in my view sufficiently addressed but due to obvious opsec reasons I'd prefer not to go into too much detail.

Well that was what I thought was my main point...(Or question).. so that if you have ONLY one back up, then that could be dangerous, but if you have two back ups that would be better with some sufficiency in terms of different locations.. and sure none of us necessarily need to know details, but mostly inquiring upon the different locations having had been taken into account.  On a personal level I have a few different locations that I trust, but it is not like anything is exactly locked in time, and there could be times in which passwords are being updated in which the information is all located in one location. which could sometimes make systems more vulnerable when the parts are brought together, to the extent that they might need to be or if there might be some other way of updating the various parts without necessarily bringing the parts together.

So in some sense I am not necessarily specifically wanting to talk about you, but to talk about some of these kinds of vulnerabilities that any of us could have when we are either creating our back up systems or if we might be administering our systems from time to time.... including that sometimes when I am travelling, I might create new wallets and/or passwords for new products and/or services, but these might have temporary back ups that are not as adequate as my more permanent back ups, but I might not update my longer term (more permanent) back ups for several months and maybe even it could approach a year before some of the later created systems (passwords and/or seeds and/or other important information) get merged into the older (and considered to be more permanent and cold) back up password systems.

[AlcoHoDL]

Far from ATH,
But we're getting there slowly.
Got to wait it out.

Choo-choos have appeared,
Of the CCMF type,
That started it all.

As for fuck-you corn,
One still needs more than 50.
Ask Jay for details.

Coincidence that...
...Bob sells, then has colon checked?
No, I don't think so!

When dating a girl,
Don't just check her private parts.
Count her knuckles, too!

Beheading babies.
Bombing women and children.
Two sides, two evils.

The Wall Observer.
Where order flirts with chaos,
And they fall in love.

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[OgNasty]

We’re still in the early stages of this next run, but it is clear that the market changed directions and is back on the way up. Given the time period we’re in of the cycle, we should get a good long rally from here that will only intensify as people begin experiencing FOMO. Soon an ETF will be approved and Bitcoin will be all over the news again. 

[JayJuanGee]

I'm a bit cautious when after such a price pump we are so flat for almost a week. Often that ends with a bart down.
But lets see

Yeah, but we cannot go by "often" because sometimes it does not end up in "down" but instead ends up in continuation of "punishment mode" over and over and over, until so many of the shorters just give up... "We" have seen such punishment mode happen many times in bitcoin landia, and it is not easy to know when it is going to happen or whether it is happening as we are observing it.  Do you need any examples besides maybe just my pointing to April to June 2019?  

Yeah, there are other examples, so you have been around long enough to be able to point to them yourself, and regarding whether "we" might be at such a point in the cycle or not is still to be seen.. no one really knows (except maybe some folks might know that how much value that they have on the sidelines that they are going to continue to put into bitcoin and some of the rest of us might not know about their convictions in regards to their spare cash, since our $thousands or $100s of thousands or our $millions does not even come close to the levels of spare cash that some folks/institutions/governments might be willing to throw into the pot upon the development of certain price movements) until after it already happened, then we are like holy shit. .and then maybe at that point we may or may not get a correction.  I am not even saying that is where we are at, but we could be at a place in which support is sufficiently bolstered enough to be there.

I'm a bit cautious when after such a price pump we are so flat for almost a week. Often that ends with a bart down.
But lets see

it's just a small retest,

the price is gradually increasing, prompting traders to consider taking a position after that the price will crash by making 1-3 red candles.

I doubt that BTC price movements are that easy to describe or to predict how they will play out, but you are likely correct in terms of the need for a bit of time to consolidate before the next leg that could go in either direction, and surely even if we end up going up rather than down, there could have had been some benefits towards consolidating for a while so that when the next UP comes, then there are more shorts in place to reck.

I'm a bit cautious when after such a price pump we are so flat for almost a week. Often that ends with a bart down.
But lets see

Have a nice week ahead everyone.

On a lighter note, this 34k support be like ...

Image from reddit

Surely that is pessimistic to be seeing support as being so vulnerable.. but hey, no problem you can believe whatever you like.  I hope that you are not making your bets based on such... in other words, there is nothing wrong in terms fo being prepared to buy more if the price goes down, but gotta be careful in terms of either selling or even low coiners/no coiners failing/refusing to buy BTC at these prices based some kind of a belief that downity has high odds of happening (or that downity is near inevitable).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

I'm a bit cautious when after such a price pump we are so flat for almost a week. Often that ends with a bart down.
But lets see

Have a nice week ahead everyone.

On a lighter note, this 34k support be like ...

Image from reddit

Surely that is pessimistic to be seeing support as being so vulnerable.. but hey, no problem you can believe whatever you like.  I hope that you are not making your bets based on such... in other words, there is nothing wrong in terms fo being prepared to buy more if the price goes down, but gotta be careful in terms of either selling or even low coiners/no coiners failing/refusing to buy BTC at these prices based some kind of a belief that downity has high odds of happening (or that downity is near inevitable).

JJG I shared this just on a lighter note and trust me it has nothing to do with selling or buying Bitcoins. 34k is not a price where you start thinking to sell off. Its just a small pump, may be price from here keep increasing (I don't know). Either way we must not deviate from our strategies of accumulation due to such pumps and dumps.

[psycodad]

The backup and the "original" are fully identical. Before writing it down I just xor the original 2048bit key that results in a valid seed for electrum with a password and store that value as BIP39 encoded seed words. Xor that again with the valid password and you get the original and valid electrum seed back.

I tried to look up Xor but I don't really understand what that is.. I guess it is creating a hash and then reverse hash or something like that, so yeah, maybe I am missing something in regards to what you are doing since I don't really know how to xor anything... at least not so far in my bitcoin journey (or otherwise in my personal life - not that I know about.. maybe I had been XORing things without realizing that was what I was doing all this time).

..
An XOR gate implements an exclusive or, that is, a true output results if one, and only one, of the inputs to the gate is true.
..

Given that the key is basically just a very large integer number and given that any password (or a hash thereof) can also be represented by a equally large integer, you can xor the key(-number) K with the password(-number) P and get a new large number N.
Means K^P =  N and N^P = K

Let's assume for the below example that we deal only with numbers up to 15 (4 bits), let K be 13 and let P be 9, the result of xoring them is 4 (see below):

Code:

13 = 1101
     ^
 9 = 1001
=========
 4 = 0100

Now if we take the "fake seed" N (4) and xor it again with the password P (9) we get again our key K (13):

Code:

 9 = 1001
    ^
 4 = 0100
=========
13 = 1101

To quote loosely from Applied Cryptography: Xor is a extremly secure cryptographic algorithm under the assumption that they key is of perfect randomness and at least as long as the payload to encrypt.

That is not to say that the above described procedure is by any means anything even resembling serious cryptography, but it should delay the regular thug and win me some more time to secure the funds via backup.

But the procedure could be extended to work only on the seed and calculate the checksum itself. The N value would then not only look like a seed but be a valid seed and you could even transfer some smallish fund to that camouflage wallet and hope the thug just takes the few sats you left there and is happy with his loot.

[Phil_S]

1.5x per year...
at least we crossed that 25600 line, finally. I wonder if we could cross 51200 sometime this year.



It's tempting to think we'll follow the 2019 recovery trajectory, but the budger rarely follows past patterns.

Updating "1.5x per year" trend...

[AlcoHoDL]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ahYUbOdDH-I

Bitcoin greatly rewards order, and severely punishes chaos.

To anyone who has lost coins: you're doing it wrong, but thank you for your donation!

Some ways of holding coins are easier than other ways, and personally, I consider that it is not easy to attempt to stay somewhat vigilant in the ways that we are holding our keys and the various ways to try to back them up without necessarily leaving them vulnerable to others while at the mean time sufficiently preserving them so we do not lose them to our own complications and/or oversights.

Didn't you yourself, AlcoHoDL, either lose some bitcoin or maybe even come close to overly complicating some of your wallets?  Or, am I getting you mixed up with another member?  The more I think about it, I am pretty sure you told some stories of how some ways of storing keys might become too complicated, especially with the passage of time and thinking that we had sufficiently documented in order to trigger our memories, and then viola.. we are struggling to remember and/or figure it out.. so if we are sometimes struggling with our own systems, then how are we going to be passing those coins down with someone else being able to read our notes and/or fill in the gaps, even if the coins might be hiding in plain sight.

So far there is no easy solution, and it seems that it could be a while before easy systems come.. because some of us might currently be able to program our clock on our VCR (or microwave), but others struggle, and even us in time 1 know how to do it, but in time 2, we may have had forgotten how to do it, and did we keep too much information in our heads presuming that we were going to remember when the time comes.. but the time ends up being 15 years later rather than 5 years later.. where did all that time go?

No, it wasn't me who lost coins. I think a recent situation like this happened to either OutOfMemory or sirazimuth, IIRC. It can happen to anyone, and, let's face it, Bitcoin has radically changed the way we handle and protect our cash (of the digital variety, a.k.a. BTC). Even those of us who are very computer-literate can end up in situations like this, and you're right in that I've made several posts in the past emphasizing that fact.

I remember several years ago, when I had accumulated a decent amount of corn (I think it was about 15 BTC), I designed an extremely elaborate and complex sequence of steps to encode/encrypt and backup the seed. It involved a passphrase, a book, some pseudo-random (i.e., able to be regenerated) numbers, and some method of combining all bits together. I verified my newly created algorithm and it worked. But then it dawned on me that missing/forgetting just one of the several steps involved would prevent access to the seed, and, as you've correctly pointed out, we often forget much simpler tasks, such as how to set the microwave clock (has happened to me--the god damned thing doesn't even remember the time on a mains power cut, so I don't even bother anymore). In such cases we can read the manual and find out how to do it, but in the case of my above mentioned, supposedly super-strong encryption algorithm, there's no manual to look up, and writing one would compromise its security. So, I quickly decided to apply the KISS principle: a seed with 24 words + a very strong (but not impossible to memorize) passphrase. Has served me well. No security breaches, passphrase has now been practically etched in my memory cells. Anything more complex than that, and I run the risk of forgetting about it and locking myself out of my coins. No, thanks.

The above is the reason I support the idea of the banking institutions of the future providing custodian services for BTC holders. You just can't expect everyone to know about seeds, passphrase entropies and the like, and be able to apply them correctly. So, those of us who can handle it, can do it, as most of us do, but with extreme caution, and running the risk of losing our coins. The rest of us who are lacking the skill or don't want to take the risk, should have the option to pay someone else to do it for them, just as we all do with fiat using the banking system. NYKNYC is the price you pay in the latter case.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ahYUbOdDH-I

Bitcoin greatly rewards order, and severely punishes chaos.

To anyone who has lost coins: you're doing it wrong, but thank you for your donation!

Some ways of holding coins are easier than other ways, and personally, I consider that it is not easy to attempt to stay somewhat vigilant in the ways that we are holding our keys and the various ways to try to back them up without necessarily leaving them vulnerable to others while at the mean time sufficiently preserving them so we do not lose them to our own complications and/or oversights.

Didn't you yourself, AlcoHoDL, either lose some bitcoin or maybe even come close to overly complicating some of your wallets?  Or, am I getting you mixed up with another member?  The more I think about it, I am pretty sure you told some stories of how some ways of storing keys might become too complicated, especially with the passage of time and thinking that we had sufficiently documented in order to trigger our memories, and then viola.. we are struggling to remember and/or figure it out.. so if we are sometimes struggling with our own systems, then how are we going to be passing those coins down with someone else being able to read our notes and/or fill in the gaps, even if the coins might be hiding in plain sight.

So far there is no easy solution, and it seems that it could be a while before easy systems come.. because some of us might currently be able to program our clock on our VCR (or microwave), but others struggle, and even us in time 1 know how to do it, but in time 2, we may have had forgotten how to do it, and did we keep too much information in our heads presuming that we were going to remember when the time comes.. but the time ends up being 15 years later rather than 5 years later.. where did all that time go?

snip

No security breaches, passphrase has now been practically etched in my memory cells. Anything more complex than that, and I run the risk of forgetting about it and locking myself out of my coins. No, thanks.

The above is the reason I support the idea of the banking institutions of the future providing custodian services for BTC holders. You just can't expect everyone to know about seeds, passphrase entropies and the like, and be able to apply them correctly. So, those of us who can handle it, can do it, as most of us do, but with extreme caution, and running the risk of losing our coins. The rest of us who are lacking the skill or don't want to take the risk, should have the option to pay someone else to do it for them, just as we all do with fiat using the banking system. NYKNYC is the price you pay in the latter case.

regarding "practically etched"-I had a situation exactly like that...used some passphrase for years...then did not use it for a year...then one day had to use it again and was drawing complete blanks..as if the neuron that had it literally died (which, of course, could happen)...later was able to recover it only by chance.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ahYUbOdDH-I

Bitcoin greatly rewards order, and severely punishes chaos.

To anyone who has lost coins: you're doing it wrong, but thank you for your donation!

Some ways of holding coins are easier than other ways, and personally, I consider that it is not easy to attempt to stay somewhat vigilant in the ways that we are holding our keys and the various ways to try to back them up without necessarily leaving them vulnerable to others while at the mean time sufficiently preserving them so we do not lose them to our own complications and/or oversights.

Didn't you yourself, AlcoHoDL, either lose some bitcoin or maybe even come close to overly complicating some of your wallets?  Or, am I getting you mixed up with another member?  The more I think about it, I am pretty sure you told some stories of how some ways of storing keys might become too complicated, especially with the passage of time and thinking that we had sufficiently documented in order to trigger our memories, and then viola.. we are struggling to remember and/or figure it out.. so if we are sometimes struggling with our own systems, then how are we going to be passing those coins down with someone else being able to read our notes and/or fill in the gaps, even if the coins might be hiding in plain sight.

So far there is no easy solution, and it seems that it could be a while before easy systems come.. because some of us might currently be able to program our clock on our VCR (or microwave), but others struggle, and even us in time 1 know how to do it, but in time 2, we may have had forgotten how to do it, and did we keep too much information in our heads presuming that we were going to remember when the time comes.. but the time ends up being 15 years later rather than 5 years later.. where did all that time go?

snip

No security breaches, passphrase has now been practically etched in my memory cells. Anything more complex than that, and I run the risk of forgetting about it and locking myself out of my coins. No, thanks.

The above is the reason I support the idea of the banking institutions of the future providing custodian services for BTC holders. You just can't expect everyone to know about seeds, passphrase entropies and the like, and be able to apply them correctly. So, those of us who can handle it, can do it, as most of us do, but with extreme caution, and running the risk of losing our coins. The rest of us who are lacking the skill or don't want to take the risk, should have the option to pay someone else to do it for them, just as we all do with fiat using the banking system. NYKNYC is the price you pay in the latter case.

regarding "practically etched"-I had a situation exactly like that...used some passphrase for years...then did not use it for a year...then one day had to use it again and was drawing complete blanks..as if the neuron that had it literally died (which, of course could happen)...later was able to recover it only by chance.

Yes, this is a possibility, and I'm not going to lie, this is something I fear. In fact, just thinking about it gives me the chills. But somehow I've grown to trust my brain and I hope my memory occupies enough neurons to have some redundancy, in case some of them die.

Something that can help keep those neurons in good shape is regularly refreshing them, i.e., using the passphrase every few months. That's what I do, and so far I've had absolutely zero difficulty in recalling it, and it's a very strong one. Maybe that one year you left your neurons asleep, was enough to weaken them. But you recalled it eventually, so maybe they did not die after all.

[Hueristic]

regarding "practically etched"-I had a situation exactly like that...used some passphrase for years...then did not use it for a year...then one day had to use it again and was drawing complete blanks..as if the neuron that had it literally died (which, of course could happen)...later was able to recover it only by chance.

Did the same, made a variation of a few methods on a phrase and it cost me 5 grand after I forgot what I did a few years later.

[Biodom]

Sunday OT:

One day (during the latest partial solar eclipse) I suddenly realized that the fact that Moon exactly blots out the sun is somewhat weird and is highly unlikely.
We just happen to live at the time when angular diameter of both the moon and the Sun are virtually identical.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/life-unbounded/the-solar-eclipse-coincidence/
Although it is exactly what is happening, the event itself has microscopic probability from all possible arrangements between the size of the planet satellites, the star, distances, etc, etc.
That made me think about other "unique" features of the realm about "right now":

1. First off, all universe parameters had to be just right to make stable atoms, galaxies, etc-that's a given. Our Universe is just one out of roughly 10^500 chances. Good enough!
2. The 'strange' triple alpha process that forms carbon in the stars (Hoyle state).  
3. Sun had to be formed after heavy elements already accumulated...almost 8 bil years after the Big bang...basically, we are 'late".
4. Humans appear on earth 4.7 bil years after the planet was born and the planet has a maximum of another 1 bil years to go before the biosphere is bound to be destroyed by the expanding Sun that would be transitioning to a red giant. So, we appeared within the last 20% of the planet's life.."late" again.
5. The Moon is larger that the satellite of the earth size planet should be theoretically with astronomers proposing (and basically proving) that the Moon was formed by the collision of the "initial" earth with a body the size of mars, roughly.
6. That collision probably evaporated the original water on the planet and resulted in Earth being drier that it would have been otherwise, with most water being brought by comets and asteroids.
7. It is entirely possible that the core rotation and magnetic field plus tectonic plates movement was also caused by that collision, which ought to be a very rare event.
8. We are here during the time when we can still see galaxies. Some time later...in fact, much later, other galaxies will be invisible to us.
9. We live at the age when computing became widespread. Being born a hundred years early and we would have missed it.
10. Being born as "you"-that's a biggie. Each human mating pair is capable of generating at least several dozen trillions genetic combinations, but here you are. Chances of winning a lottery are at least 100 thou times larger than that. Add to that your unique personal history that added to you being you.
11. We live during the age of bitcoin "discovery", so we could participate early, which is almost like having a golden ticket and/or winning a lottery (again).

TL;DR Sometimes I wonder about all this 'selection' mechanisms that resulted in "now", but then, it all depends on the number of "rolls".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

buddy i will humbly request a nice hike tonight a strong candle 🕯️ to 36,363.60 works for me.

We all know you can do this lift in you sleep 💤 so please do it durning my sleep tonight.


@JJG

honey badger my not care but buddy has got the balls 🏈 ⚽️ 🏀 to do the lift.


Go NY ✈️ Jets 4-3 without the injured qb not bad.

[JayJuanGee]

1.5x per year...
at least we crossed that 25600 line, finally. I wonder if we could cross 51200 sometime this year.

It's tempting to think we'll follow the 2019 recovery trajectory, but the budger rarely follows past patterns.

Updating "1.5x per year" trend...

I had not recalled that you compromised down from 2x to 1.5x.. even though you posted such in March..

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ahYUbOdDH-I

Bitcoin greatly rewards order, and severely punishes chaos.

To anyone who has lost coins: you're doing it wrong, but thank you for your donation!

Some ways of holding coins are easier than other ways, and personally, I consider that it is not easy to attempt to stay somewhat vigilant in the ways that we are holding our keys and the various ways to try to back them up without necessarily leaving them vulnerable to others while at the mean time sufficiently preserving them so we do not lose them to our own complications and/or oversights.

Didn't you yourself, AlcoHoDL, either lose some bitcoin or maybe even come close to overly complicating some of your wallets?  Or, am I getting you mixed up with another member?  The more I think about it, I am pretty sure you told some stories of how some ways of storing keys might become too complicated, especially with the passage of time and thinking that we had sufficiently documented in order to trigger our memories, and then viola.. we are struggling to remember and/or figure it out.. so if we are sometimes struggling with our own systems, then how are we going to be passing those coins down with someone else being able to read our notes and/or fill in the gaps, even if the coins might be hiding in plain sight.

So far there is no easy solution, and it seems that it could be a while before easy systems come.. because some of us might currently be able to program our clock on our VCR (or microwave), but others struggle, and even us in time 1 know how to do it, but in time 2, we may have had forgotten how to do it, and did we keep too much information in our heads presuming that we were going to remember when the time comes.. but the time ends up being 15 years later rather than 5 years later.. where did all that time go?

No, it wasn't me who lost coins. I think a recent situation like this happened to either OutOfMemory or sirazimuth, IIRC. It can happen to anyone, and, let's face it, Bitcoin has radically changed the way we handle and protect our cash (of the digital variety, a.k.a. BTC). Even those of us who are very computer-literate can end up in situations like this, and you're right in that I've made several posts in the past emphasizing that fact.

Yes.. I am remembering posts from around 5 years ago and you were talking about ways to overly complicate keys.. so yeah, I may have misspoke to imply that you actually lost coins or said that you lost coins or that you might have been close to losing coins due to overly complications.. but you likely did post something about it, even though I cannot remember exact details that might not really matter too much in terms of the point about over complication can be a way (and is a way) to lose coins...and even reasonable, smart and diligent people likely lose coins from time to time.

I remember several years ago, when I had accumulated a decent amount of corn (I think it was about 15 BTC), I designed an extremely elaborate and complex sequence of steps to encode/encrypt and backup the seed. It involved a passphrase, a book, some pseudo-random (i.e., able to be regenerated) numbers, and some method of combining all bits together. I verified my newly created algorithm and it worked. But then it dawned on me that missing/forgetting just one of the several steps involved would prevent access to the seed, and, as you've correctly pointed out, we often forget much simpler tasks, such as how to set the microwave clock (has happened to me--the god damned thing doesn't even remember the time on a mains power cut, so I don't even bother anymore).

Exactly.. it's like de ja vu all over again seeing you say these things in your own words, rather than me trying to inaccurately parrot you..

In such cases we can read the manual and find out how to do it, but in the case of my above mentioned, supposedly super-strong encryption algorithm, there's no manual to look up, and writing one would compromise its security. So, I quickly decided to apply the KISS principle: a seed with 24 words + a very strong (but not impossible to memorize) passphrase.

If you think about it, one of the issues with Luke Dasher was that he had his own system, rather than following a more basic open source system that would have had probably given more protections than his have had created his own system that was probably good, but was not  sufficiently peer reviewed.. not that we have to have everything that we do peer reviewed, but it may well be better to follow tried and true basic systems rather than outsmarting ourselves with a good system that might have, like you said, one little flaw that ends up fucking up the whole thing... because once years pass by, it might become nearly impossible, if not completely impossible to resolve, especially if we don't even know the whole package, for example if two things go wrong, then we are missing more pieces that make it difficult to know the total size or if we have all of the parts.. even in the right order.

Has served me well. No security breaches, passphrase has now been practically etched in my memory cells.

You don't want that... because remember, we talked about hypnotism... when we meet in person, I will try to get you drunk or maybe I will trigger you into some kind of an outburst in which you splurt out the private keys... hahahaha

Anything more complex than that, and I run the risk of forgetting about it and locking myself out of my coins. No, thanks.

I won't argue with you on that part.

The above is the reason I support the idea of the banking institutions of the future providing custodian services for BTC holders. You just can't expect everyone to know about seeds, passphrase entropies and the like, and be able to apply them correctly. So, those of us who can handle it, can do it, as most of us do, but with extreme caution, and running the risk of losing our coins. The rest of us who are lacking the skill or don't want to take the risk, should have the option to pay someone else to do it for them, just as we all do with fiat using the banking system. NYKNYC is the price you pay in the latter case.

ditto, amen.. etc etc etc. that's what I am you are talking about