Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

1.5x per year...
at least we crossed that 25600 line, finally. I wonder if we could cross 51200 sometime this year.

It's tempting to think we'll follow the 2019 recovery trajectory, but the budger rarely follows past patterns.

Updating "1.5x per year" trend...

I had not recalled that you compromised down from 2x to 1.5x.. even though you posted such in March..

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ahYUbOdDH-I

Bitcoin greatly rewards order, and severely punishes chaos.

To anyone who has lost coins: you're doing it wrong, but thank you for your donation!

Some ways of holding coins are easier than other ways, and personally, I consider that it is not easy to attempt to stay somewhat vigilant in the ways that we are holding our keys and the various ways to try to back them up without necessarily leaving them vulnerable to others while at the mean time sufficiently preserving them so we do not lose them to our own complications and/or oversights.

Didn't you yourself, AlcoHoDL, either lose some bitcoin or maybe even come close to overly complicating some of your wallets?  Or, am I getting you mixed up with another member?  The more I think about it, I am pretty sure you told some stories of how some ways of storing keys might become too complicated, especially with the passage of time and thinking that we had sufficiently documented in order to trigger our memories, and then viola.. we are struggling to remember and/or figure it out.. so if we are sometimes struggling with our own systems, then how are we going to be passing those coins down with someone else being able to read our notes and/or fill in the gaps, even if the coins might be hiding in plain sight.

So far there is no easy solution, and it seems that it could be a while before easy systems come.. because some of us might currently be able to program our clock on our VCR (or microwave), but others struggle, and even us in time 1 know how to do it, but in time 2, we may have had forgotten how to do it, and did we keep too much information in our heads presuming that we were going to remember when the time comes.. but the time ends up being 15 years later rather than 5 years later.. where did all that time go?

No, it wasn't me who lost coins. I think a recent situation like this happened to either OutOfMemory or sirazimuth, IIRC. It can happen to anyone, and, let's face it, Bitcoin has radically changed the way we handle and protect our cash (of the digital variety, a.k.a. BTC). Even those of us who are very computer-literate can end up in situations like this, and you're right in that I've made several posts in the past emphasizing that fact.

Yes.. I am remembering posts from around 5 years ago and you were talking about ways to overly complicate keys.. so yeah, I may have misspoke to imply that you actually lost coins or said that you lost coins or that you might have been close to losing coins due to overly complications.. but you likely did post something about it, even though I cannot remember exact details that might not really matter too much in terms of the point about over complication can be a way (and is a way) to lose coins...and even reasonable, smart and diligent people likely lose coins from time to time.

I remember several years ago, when I had accumulated a decent amount of corn (I think it was about 15 BTC), I designed an extremely elaborate and complex sequence of steps to encode/encrypt and backup the seed. It involved a passphrase, a book, some pseudo-random (i.e., able to be regenerated) numbers, and some method of combining all bits together. I verified my newly created algorithm and it worked. But then it dawned on me that missing/forgetting just one of the several steps involved would prevent access to the seed, and, as you've correctly pointed out, we often forget much simpler tasks, such as how to set the microwave clock (has happened to me--the god damned thing doesn't even remember the time on a mains power cut, so I don't even bother anymore).

Exactly.. it's like de ja vu all over again seeing you say these things in your own words, rather than me trying to inaccurately parrot you..

In such cases we can read the manual and find out how to do it, but in the case of my above mentioned, supposedly super-strong encryption algorithm, there's no manual to look up, and writing one would compromise its security. So, I quickly decided to apply the KISS principle: a seed with 24 words + a very strong (but not impossible to memorize) passphrase.

If you think about it, one of the issues with Luke Dasher was that he had his own system, rather than following a more basic open source system that would have had probably given more protections than his have had created his own system that was probably good, but was not  sufficiently peer reviewed.. not that we have to have everything that we do peer reviewed, but it may well be better to follow tried and true basic systems rather than outsmarting ourselves with a good system that might have, like you said, one little flaw that ends up fucking up the whole thing... because once years pass by, it might become nearly impossible, if not completely impossible to resolve, especially if we don't even know the whole package, for example if two things go wrong, then we are missing more pieces that make it difficult to know the total size or if we have all of the parts.. even in the right order.

Has served me well. No security breaches, passphrase has now been practically etched in my memory cells.

You don't want that... because remember, we talked about hypnotism... when we meet in person, I will try to get you drunk or maybe I will trigger you into some kind of an outburst in which you splurt out the private keys... hahahaha

Anything more complex than that, and I run the risk of forgetting about it and locking myself out of my coins. No, thanks.

I won't argue with you on that part.

The above is the reason I support the idea of the banking institutions of the future providing custodian services for BTC holders. You just can't expect everyone to know about seeds, passphrase entropies and the like, and be able to apply them correctly. So, those of us who can handle it, can do it, as most of us do, but with extreme caution, and running the risk of losing our coins. The rest of us who are lacking the skill or don't want to take the risk, should have the option to pay someone else to do it for them, just as we all do with fiat using the banking system. NYKNYC is the price you pay in the latter case.

ditto, amen.. etc etc etc. that's what I am you are talking about

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Chart buddy Sandwich as "they" like to say

with JJG as the bread, this time.

No security breaches, passphrase has now been practically etched in my memory cells. Anything more complex than that, and I run the risk of forgetting about it and locking myself out of my coins. No, thanks.

The above is the reason I support the idea of the banking institutions of the future providing custodian services for BTC holders. You just can't expect everyone to know about seeds, passphrase entropies and the like, and be able to apply them correctly. So, those of us who can handle it, can do it, as most of us do, but with extreme caution, and running the risk of losing our coins. The rest of us who are lacking the skill or don't want to take the risk, should have the option to pay someone else to do it for them, just as we all do with fiat using the banking system. NYKNYC is the price you pay in the latter case.

regarding "practically etched"-I had a situation exactly like that...used some passphrase for years...then did not use it for a year...then one day had to use it again and was drawing complete blanks..as if the neuron that had it literally died (which, of course, could happen)...later was able to recover it only by chance.

That's another problem with memory that may well have had happened to many of us. We might use some of our passwords so frequently we don't even really know them, and there had been some times that I needed to enter a password, but it was in a different context, and I could not remember it for my life, but when I got back to my other context, and then I went to enter the password, it was like right there... it is like the difference of typing it on a computer versus maybe having to say it orally in some other place, and then it is like your fingers know it, but your mouth doesn't know it.

So the "practically etched" could surely give a false sense of security in terms of how we might not even know how we know and how we remember, but when we get into some other kind of situation, it is like we revert to some other state. like if we were a monkey (or a bot) rather than a man (or woman for that sake, are there really any women?  jajajajajaja).

[edited out]

Yes, this is a possibility, and I'm not going to lie, this is something I fear. In fact, just thinking about it gives me the chills. But somehow I've grown to trust my brain and I hope my memory occupies enough neurons to have some redundancy, in case some of them die.

Something that can help keep those neurons in good shape is regularly refreshing them, i.e., using the passphrase every few months. That's what I do, and so far I've had absolutely zero difficulty in recalling it, and it's a very strong one. Maybe that one year you left your neurons asleep, was enough to weaken them. But you recalled it eventually, so maybe they did not die after all.

You likely realize what you are doing is not really right, AlcoHoDL, but I don't really know any kind of a correction for it.  We all likely do it to some extent, and we don't really know what might trigger us not to remember some of the basics, or what we thought were basics...all of a sudden some of the basics are missing, and how many pieces do we need to have in order to solve the puzzle, and how many pieces can we afford to have missing and still be able to solve the puzzle.

I am not saying that I know, and I am not even saying that I know which things I am relying too much on my memory and maybe I need to write some things down or to go through the motions so that I don't remember them.. and how do you know that you went through the motions on all of the things that you need to know?

Yes, the other side of the coin might be writing too many things down.. and even that could become a bit of a puzzle if you write it all down in order that you remember, and then after 2 years you have written down everything, so then you go back to the beginning to review what you first wrote two years earlier in order to go through all of it... but then what happens if the way that you wrote it and the way that you think it does not really jive... so you have to stand on your head and have someone pour a diet coke on your left foot, and then you will properly remember it.

buddy i will humbly request a nice hike tonight a strong candle 🕯️ to 36,363.60 works for me.

You realize that buddy does not do cents?  In other words dollars is the lowest digit, and it is not even Buddy's fault.. because around a year and a half ago, Bitstamp changed its order books so that the buy sells have to be in dollars, not cents.. .if that makes any sense?.. just letting you know... would not want to get your hopes up that buddy is going to suddenly show cents out of the blue.

We all know you can do this lift in you sleep 💤 so please do it durning my sleep tonight.

@JJG

honey badger my not care but buddy has got the balls 🏈 ⚽️ 🏀 to do the lift.

Go NY ✈️ Jets 4-3 without the injured qb not bad.

My comment is: "no comment"

[eXPHorizon]

All of you get the Mark of the beast. Doomed for all eternity

That is a long long time...

[OutOfMemory]

Sunday OT:

One day (during the latest partial solar eclipse) I suddenly realized that the fact that Moon exactly blots out the sun is somewhat weird and is highly unlikely.
We just happen to live at the time when angular diameter of both the moon and the Sun are virtually identical.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/life-unbounded/the-solar-eclipse-coincidence/
Although it is exactly what is happening, the event itself has microscopic probability from all possible arrangements between the size of the planet satellites, the star, distances, etc, etc.
That made me think about other "unique" features of the realm about "right now":

1. First off, all universe parameters had to be just right to make stable atoms, galaxies, etc-that's a given. Our Universe is just one out of roughly 10^500 chances. Good enough!
2. The 'strange' triple alpha process that forms carbon in the stars (Hoyle state).  
3. Sun had to be formed after heavy elements already accumulated...almost 8 bil years after the Big bang...basically, we are 'late".
4. Humans appear on earth 4.7 bil years after the planet was born and the planet has a maximum of another 1 bil years to go before the biosphere is bound to be destroyed by the expanding Sun that would be transitioning to a red giant. So, we appeared within the last 20% of the planet's life.."late" again.
5. The Moon is larger that the satellite of the earth size planet should be theoretically with astronomers proposing (and basically proving) that the Moon was formed by the collision of the "initial" earth with a body the size of mars, roughly.
6. That collision probably evaporated the original water on the planet and resulted in Earth being drier that it would have been otherwise, with most water being brought by comets and asteroids.
7. It is entirely possible that the core rotation and magnetic field plus tectonic plates movement was also caused by that collision, which ought to be a very rare event.
8. We are here during the time when we can still see galaxies. Some time later...in fact, much later, other galaxies will be invisible to us.
9. We live at the age when computing became widespread. Being born a hundred years early and we would have missed it.
10. Being born as "you"-that's a biggie. Each human mating pair is capable of generating at least several dozen trillions genetic combinations, but here you are. Chances of winning a lottery are at least 100 thou times larger than that. Add to that your unique personal history that added to you being you.
11. We live during the age of bitcoin "discovery", so we could participate early, which is almost like having a golden ticket and/or winning a lottery (again).

TL;DR Sometimes I wonder about all this 'selection' mechanisms that resulted in "now", but then, it all depends on the number of "rolls".

Biodom peeking
into pandoras lil box
on a sunday eve

But it's not that unlikely that the shadow of earth hits the moon: On every full moon the sun is almost directly behind the earth, when viewed from the moon. It just needs a little bit to cross the two ecliptic angles (moon-earth and earth-sun) and voila, the moon is hit by the core shadow of the earth, 154 times a century. There is also peripheral shadow (an "almost" hit), which hits the moon 88 times a century, and the dimensions are so big and the dynamics so static - remember that dyncamics had trillions of years to balance out within the dance of gravity - that this is working as precise as clockwork.

Going through your list above, there are more recent discoveries that take this some steps further, from omitting the real existence of time, which indeed fixed some unsolvable problems, to yet unexplored "particles" that flood the universe, even maybe multiverses, to form energy and matter, as well as interconnecting them and exchanging "information" between them - at timeless "speeds". The problem is granularity and how to detect these yet undefined "entities" - which mostly consists of guessing (modeling) and simulating, mainly based on data from CERN and HST/JWST.
Our reality is mainly a snapshot of the local result of universal (or multiversal) events, starting from day 0. Light (vision) is energy, sent across space. What we observe with telescopes is only the energy that was emitted from remote events (past realities) - so we don't look at things, we are looking at information which is forming a visual abstraction of what is (aka "god" - following more recent translations of "JHW").

I won't get on, because it always blows my mind doing so, too complex to be expressed using so little words. Anyway, we seem not to be made to decode universal being, since we are a subsidiary part of it all, so we should just try to live our lives, knowing - or assuming- there are a lot things going on out there which are too complex and hideous to be explored. We're just a grain of sand in the desert, and every time i take a telescope out in the backyard and capture photons originating from events so insanely big and far away, i remind myself of how small we are, and everything that seemed somehow "important" to me before - just disappears.

And yes, we are lucky as fuck to be here in this now in this place. Likely less than a once-in-a-universe coincidence.

EDIT: What's even more fascinating to me is that there is a real chance that the universe is somehow aware of our existence.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

....

No, it wasn't me who lost coins. I think a recent situation like this happened to either OutOfMemory or sirazimuth, IIRC. It can happen to anyone, and, let's face it, Bitcoin has radically changed the way we handle and protect our cash (of the digital variety, a.k.a. BTC). Even those of us who are very computer-literate can end up in situations like this, and you're right in that I've made several posts in the past emphasizing that fact.

.......

To  be clear, yes, I lost about half a bitcoin, about $200 in value at the time, (or something like that, I cant remember, 9 years ago) but it had nothing to do with being hacked.
I have never lost a single satoshi from a hack.
<redacted>
 Nuff said.

[OutOfMemory]

....

No, it wasn't me who lost coins. I think a recent situation like this happened to either OutOfMemory or sirazimuth, IIRC. It can happen to anyone, and, let's face it, Bitcoin has radically changed the way we handle and protect our cash (of the digital variety, a.k.a. BTC). Even those of us who are very computer-literate can end up in situations like this, and you're right in that I've made several posts in the past emphasizing that fact.

.......

To  be clear, yes, I lost about half a bitcoin, about $200 in value at the time, (or something like that, I cant remember, 9 years ago) but it had nothing to do with being hacked.
I have never lost a single satoshi from a hack.
<redacted>
 Nuff said.

Yeah, i lost a ledger, but easily restored the keys using a new one.
And my first transaction was hijacked by malware. 0,1 BTC, early 2017.

[sirazimuth]

....

No, it wasn't me who lost coins. I think a recent situation like this happened to either OutOfMemory or sirazimuth, IIRC. It can happen to anyone, and, let's face it, Bitcoin has radically changed the way we handle and protect our cash (of the digital variety, a.k.a. BTC). Even those of us who are very computer-literate can end up in situations like this, and you're right in that I've made several posts in the past emphasizing that fact.

.......

To  be clear, yes, I lost about half a bitcoin, about $200 in value at the time, (or something like that, I cant remember, 9 years ago) but it had nothing to do with being hacked.
I have never lost a single satoshi from a hack.
<redacted>
 Nuff said.

Yeah, i lost a ledger, but easily restored the keys using a new one.
And my first transaction was hijacked by malware. 0,1 BTC, early 2017.

Oh,  a Ledger eh?.. That's another naughty word on this here famous thread, but hey, at least it doesn't start with the letter "c", so there is that.

Sunday OT:

One day (during the latest partial solar eclipse) I suddenly realized that the fact that Moon exactly blots out the sun is somewhat weird and is highly unlikely.
We just happen to live at the time when angular diameter of both the moon and the Sun are virtually identical.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/life-unbounded/the-solar-eclipse-coincidence/
Although it is exactly what is happening, the event itself has microscopic probability from all possible arrangements between the size of the planet satellites, the star, distances, etc, etc.
That made me think about other "unique" features of the realm about "right now":

1. First off, all universe parameters had to be just right to make stable atoms, galaxies, etc-that's a given. Our Universe is just one out of roughly 10^500 chances. Good enough!
2. The 'strange' triple alpha process that forms carbon in the stars (Hoyle state).  
3. Sun had to be formed after heavy elements already accumulated...almost 8 bil years after the Big bang...basically, we are 'late".
4. Humans appear on earth 4.7 bil years after the planet was born and the planet has a maximum of another 1 bil years to go before the biosphere is bound to be destroyed by the expanding Sun that would be transitioning to a red giant. So, we appeared within the last 20% of the planet's life.."late" again.
5. The Moon is larger that the satellite of the earth size planet should be theoretically with astronomers proposing (and basically proving) that the Moon was formed by the collision of the "initial" earth with a body the size of mars, roughly.
6. That collision probably evaporated the original water on the planet and resulted in Earth being drier that it would have been otherwise, with most water being brought by comets and asteroids.
7. It is entirely possible that the core rotation and magnetic field plus tectonic plates movement was also caused by that collision, which ought to be a very rare event.
8. We are here during the time when we can still see galaxies. Some time later...in fact, much later, other galaxies will be invisible to us.
9. We live at the age when computing became widespread. Being born a hundred years early and we would have missed it.
10. Being born as "you"-that's a biggie. Each human mating pair is capable of generating at least several dozen trillions genetic combinations, but here you are. Chances of winning a lottery are at least 100 thou times larger than that. Add to that your unique personal history that added to you being you.
11. We live during the age of bitcoin "discovery", so we could participate early, which is almost like having a golden ticket and/or winning a lottery (again).

TL;DR Sometimes I wonder about all this 'selection' mechanisms that resulted in "now", but then, it all depends on the number of "rolls".

Don't be silly!
The Earth is 10,000 years old.
We are decedents of Adam and Eve and Noah saved all the animals from a flood on his big arc.
It says so in the bible so it must be true.

And on a more serious note, and almost as unbelievable...
People actually believe that shit...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

....No, it wasn't me who lost coins. I think a recent situation like this happened to either OutOfMemory or sirazimuth, IIRC. It can happen to anyone, and, let's face it, Bitcoin has radically changed the way we handle and protect our cash (of the digital variety, a.k.a. BTC). Even those of us who are very computer-literate can end up in situations like this, and you're right in that I've made several posts in the past emphasizing that fact........

To  be clear, yes, I lost about half a bitcoin, about $200 in value at the time, (or something like that, I cant remember, 9 years ago) but it had nothing to do with being hacked.
I have never lost a single satoshi from a hack.
<redacted>
 Nuff said.

It seems to me that the longer that we are in bitcoin and probably the more kinds of activities that we are engaged in with our coins, the more opportunities that we have to lose coins.. and I am not even necessarily referring to getting involved in shitcoins, which could be another way to lose coins.  One of the good things about having had accumulated more than enough coins, the losses sometimes will just feel like a part of doing business.. but at the same time, there can be some painful thoughts in regards to how to potentially prevent the same kinds of losses - and is it worth it to go down certain paths, maybe even becoming a bit of a bitcoin recluse - and not interacting with our coins in the world, to potentially be more safe. 

I don't deny the existence of security through obscurity as one of the potentially valuable parts... and surely I still think that there are a lot of difficult things with bitcoin, and trying to figure out ways to help some of the newer folks in onboarding and practicing somewhat safe practices.. at least safe enough that they kind of have some ideas regarding how one way of holding coins might be preferable and figuring out why some kinds of practices are adding risks that might be lessened with some safer practices and better organization.

There are so many folks who don't even have a back up of their phone, and I am sometimes having trouble blaming them, but it seems that some kinds of back ups should be in practice for all of our data, even though surely the kind of data that has monetary value attached to it. and in the current subject we are talking about bitcoin serving as a kind of monetary value that is attached to data, and so the value being attached to the data contributes towards justifications to get more serious about our data, especially our bitcoin data... seems so abstract, and it kind of is, but when feeling the HLB that it can help to materialize, some of the abstractness might start to feel more concreteness.

Yeah, i lost a ledger, but easily restored the keys using a new one.
And my first transaction was hijacked by malware. 0,1 BTC, early 2017.

Oh,  a Ledger eh?.. That's another naughty word on this here famous thread, but hey, at least it doesn't start with the letter "c", so there is that.

Hahahaha.. you had not noticed the first time that OOM had mentioned the Ledger incident in order that you could bond with him over your Ledger commonality.  OOM did receive a bit of a lecture on the matter, and not sure if he might be considering switching, but if he ended up buying another Ledger then sure, he is in a similar camp as you.. not exactly the same camp, but similar.. we are each unique little flowers (doesn't flower sound nicer than snowflake?), by the way... so no flower is going to tell another flower what to do, even though "we" (the other flowers) may well choose to lecture your little fartie flowery ass.

[OgNasty]

The strength of this rally has been quite impressive. While it may be slowing a bit as we attempt to break through $35K, I have to say that I am surprised with how we continue to drift upwards. Clearly someone is buying a lot of coins right now. Now to see if we smash through $35K and keep going or bounce off of it and go back into consolidation.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

no haiku Sunday
I would be wrong to do that
so a simple one

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

a buddy sandwich
became my second sunday
haiku still simple

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

Ever notice how some short posts about the usual king daddy movements just sound so generic, one could swear the member just asked the chatty AI dude to help them out?
But I suppose that said member would actually have to come up with a good prompt, so there is that.

PayPal won't let me move my free bitcoin (bought with reward point proceeds) to my Electrum wallet...   "there is a problem"  
... bastards.   I'll write to my congressman and bitch about it.

GO BITCOIN

[Hueristic]

Ever notice how some short posts about the usual king daddy movements just sound so generic, one could swear the member just asked the chatty AI dude to help them out?
But I suppose that said member would actually have to come up with a good prompt, so there is that.

PayPal won't let me move my free bitcoin (bought with reward point proceeds) to my Electrum wallet...   "there is a problem"  
... bastards.   I'll write to my congressman and bitch about it.

GO BITCOIN