ChartBuddy
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November 14, 2023, 06:03:27 PM |
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coolcoinz
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November 14, 2023, 06:09:10 PM |
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Bitcoin always has been not correlated to various equities and/or tech stocks, even though there have been so many claims about correlation.
Once upon a time in 2020... S&P is black. No correlation is a pipe dream. Obviously investments are related to some extent, but Bitcoin’s low market cap has always rallied significantly harder as price discovery is being reached. Those thinking this market will be less correlated in the future than the past, I have some bad news for you in relation to the coming spot ETF funds…
IMO Bitcoin can experience a much larger growth than stocks in the long run, especially when all the ETFs get approved they'll have to face the lowest liquidity of bitcoin in history. Imagine your clients expect you to have x amount of bitcoin in stock, for instance 100k, by next month and the competing fund needs to buy 300k at the same time and total trading volume on exchanges like bitstamp is 2k... We can expect the correlation to continue to be low if bitcoin begins to rally due to no liquidity and large demand.
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JayJuanGee
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November 14, 2023, 06:38:21 PM |
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Holy stock rally Batman! I can’t remember the last time my stock portfolio was so green. Definitely feels like a shift has been made in the investment world. A bit curious why Bitcoin hasn’t followed suit and gone up a significant amount today, but I guess after the recent rally the market needed a breather. Still good news that money is flowing back into equities.
There's no correlation anymore. They've been writing about it for months. For instance, here's Coindesk in July: Bitcoin's (BTC) fortune is no longer tied to sentiment in the U.S. stock markets. The 90-day rolling correlation of changes in bitcoin's spot price to changes in Wall Street's tech-heavy equity index, Nasdaq, and the broader index, S&P 500, has declined to near zero thestreet.com, 2 weeks ago Despite being a fundamentally decentralized asset, the bitcoin price historically tracks with traditional assets. But its recent decoupling from the S&P 500 could signal a changing outlook from mainstream investors. (...) TheStreetCrypto’s George Tung reported in the video above. “In 2023 … there’s 0% correlation… That’s because we have this flight to quality. A lot of people are paying attention and not happy about what’s going on with inflation, with printing, with debt, with everything else that’s going on. And plus, people are not oblivious to the fact that institutions are jumping into the space and about to pump bitcoin.” No correlation is a pipe dream. Obviously investments are related to some extent, but Bitcoin’s low market cap has always rallied significantly harder as price discovery is being reached. Those thinking this market will be less correlated in the future than the past, I have some bad news for you in relation to the coming spot ETF funds… So we may well agree somewhat about the historical correlation of bitcoin and stocks not really being present, and surely I would not be arguing that there are not periods in which bitcoin may well appear to be correlated for extendedly long periods of time... but those little surprises from time to time do make differences, so for example between about 2013 and present, in the last 10 years, stocks may well have doubled in price, and what has bitcoin done? something like 20x to 40x depending on from where you had been measuring. Yeah there were quite a few periods of correlation contained therein. An ETF may well bring greater correlation, but the EFT twats may not have as much power as they believe to control King Daddy... remember some of the mid 2017 statements (was it in regards to the CME futures and some of that?).. yeah they were able to make it appear that they were controlling king daddy for a short period of time.. but would you really say that they had been successful? Sure some might say that bitcoin has ONLY tripled from the around $10k prices when CME futures were introduced.... and so whatever, we will see how some of these matters play out, and surely there are a lot of efforts to make self-custodial illegal or some variation of that, so it is not like we are without some future battles on a variety of fronts that may or may not end up negatively affecting BTC's price and/or suppressing it... Perhaps? perhaps? The future is not guaranteed in either direction, so part of the reason to NOT get overly enthusiastic about upside BTC price performance that may or may not end up playing out.. and so hopefully each of us know how to attempt to manage our funds and our expectations in regards to more than just a narrow set of scenarios. Bitcoin always has been not correlated to various equities and/or tech stocks, even though there have been so many claims about correlation.
Once upon a time in 2020... S&P is black. Yes, of course there are ways to find those kinds of patterns of seeming correlation, and rely upon them to your detriment, which surely has happened to BTC HODLers from time to time when they fail/refuse to recognize BTC's lack of correlation merely because they are looking at evidence and arguments of short-term correlation that does not reflect longer time frames in which you may well end up getting reckt as fuck because you failed/refused to pee pare ur lil selfie for the possibility of BTC UPpity... because you bought into some nonsense and you ended up sizing your position based on such misleading and lacking in long term view information. another thing, good luck if you are following the supposed BIG brains that had been arguing correlation and then now are arguing lack of correlation and who are likely to flip back to correlation when it is convenient, and hopefully you do not get reckt too badly if you end up relying on their representations.
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JimboToronto
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November 14, 2023, 06:42:02 PM |
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Yo!
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Odusko
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November 14, 2023, 06:45:47 PM |
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Feels like the market is running out of steam and taking a breath. Will be interesting to see which direction the market points to when people get back to work in a few hours.
In Belgium, work is already ongoing Nice @El duderino_ let's see how that works toward achieving a positive outcome in the coming days.
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ChartBuddy
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November 14, 2023, 07:03:24 PM |
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philipma1957
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November 14, 2023, 07:50:19 PM |
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buddy are you going to give us some cheap corn?
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El duderino_
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November 14, 2023, 08:02:27 PM |
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What is happening Exactly what I don’t like but what is needed.
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ChartBuddy
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November 14, 2023, 08:03:23 PM |
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eXPHorizon
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November 14, 2023, 08:36:49 PM |
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It is time to get serious. 🐻🐻❄️🐨🧸
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ChartBuddy
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November 14, 2023, 09:03:28 PM |
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JayJuanGee
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November 14, 2023, 09:51:27 PM |
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What is happening Exactly what I don’t like but what is needed.
I am not sure if such correction is needed, but it is hard to imagine that a 42% up from around $27k to $38k in around a month without any kind of correction is sustainable.. even though historically, we have seen that sometimes dee cornz will go UPpity without a correction for quite a bit of time. I am agreeing with you in part of the sentiment in terms of my still mauling over what should be my new don't wake me up zone.. ..maybe $30k-ish on the lower end?..
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ChartBuddy
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November 14, 2023, 10:01:16 PM |
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infofront (OP)
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November 14, 2023, 10:37:54 PM |
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Poll reset. The market is looking a little uglier ATM, but I'm not lowering price ranges on the poll yet
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LFC_Bitcoin
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November 14, 2023, 10:45:05 PM |
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If we’re bottoming out here then I’d say it’s very bullish. Hopefully we’ve found a new floor, which could set us up for an end of year rally to new yearly highs.
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ChartBuddy
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November 14, 2023, 11:01:16 PM |
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OROBTC
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November 14, 2023, 11:43:57 PM |
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If we’re bottoming out here then I’d say it’s very bullish. Hopefully we’ve found a new floor, which could set us up for an end of year rally to new yearly highs.
I wouldn't know, but a low today would be nice. Go BTC go. On a related note, a guy I know who is a "Medium Shot" in BTC World told me he was very optimistic. He runs money in BTC companies, and his company is apparently doing quite well. He thinks the SEC will approve all the ETFs (or most anyway). However, he told me he has no special or insider knowledge. Soooo, with the dip and his encouraging words, I bought a little BTC today.
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ChartBuddy
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November 15, 2023, 12:01:17 AM |
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JayJuanGee
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November 15, 2023, 12:10:55 AM |
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buddy did three in a row make it for you?
maybe you do 4 in the still of the night.
Sideways 36-38k is the new slot.
maybe we leave it in a few days.
Looking at patterns from previous cycles I could understand why traders would be expecting a correction here. Typically there is one more dip before the main launch around the halving time. I personally wouldn’t bet on it though, as I’m a believer that the FTX fraud artificially depressed prices more than any time in previous Bitcoin history. I could not resist saying something. Accordingly, I find it is a bit crazy how frequently that "we" can be a kind of speaking out of both sides of our mouths in order to say that we might go down before we go up, but not only that, for several months, I have been hearing about this "one more dip before the UP will typically happen before the halvening blah blah blah.. and so yeah, one more dip before the up of the pre-halvening could happen, but it might not happen, also. If I seem to recall that we had a dip down to the upper $24ks, only a couple of months ago in mid August...... yet maybe that one lasted too long, so it could not really be a quickie dip, since we were stuck in the lower $25ks for nearly a whole month from mid August to Mid September.. .. but even the whole month from mid september to mid-october we did not really get very much UPpity progress and so therefore since in mid-October we were still in the $26ks.. so surely all of those two months between mid August and mid October could surely serve as enough down.. for anyone feeling some needs for down.. even though I am surely NOT opposed to the idea of quickie downs or even drug out downs that end up constituting "one more down before UP," they hardly seem to be necessary because we are always going to be able to locate them on the charts after we had already gone up.. then we are going to be able to look back at the charts and say.. "hey look here was a down before up" and "hey, here was another down before up" and then again "here, this one down before up that was the last down before up, so we must have to have downs before up.. and this was the last down before up, so therefore in the future we are going to likely need one last down before we get the up, no?" hahahahhaha ridiculous.... even if also yours truly may well have made such similarly dumb statements during my various moments experiencing excited utterances.
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ChartBuddy
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November 15, 2023, 01:01:15 AM |
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