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I both agree and disagree with you on the time based approach.
Now, "we" are making progress.
I largely agree with the assumptions of various constance as you mentioned, even though some of the ones that you listed are more precise than others in terms of what is exactly going to happen, and some of them are merely directional and likely to happen, rather than guaranteed, but at the same time all of them put ongoing upwards pressures on BTC prices, yet at the same time they do not guarantee any level of BTC price movement or when it might happen, even though surely the halvenings are the most reliable in terms of both when (in terms of block count, not calendar days) they will happen and how much will happen.. which is the issuance of new supply (approximately every 10 minutes) will immediately be cut in half for the next 210,000 blocks (210,000 blocks x 10 minutes = total amount of time, even though it might end up being a bit more or a bit less than 10 minutes on average over the 210,000 blocks).
Ongoing and persistent UPpity pressures, does not even guarantee that the BTC price will go up, so I have some troubles figuring out how you are going to want to try to be precise with such measures of either time and/or how much within any specific time... even though you can still have some confidence that there are good chances that the UPpity price pressures are going to persist and that there is going to be tendencies for the BTC price to move up with the passage of time, so why not just be prepared to catch the price at various points on the way up and then to do what you like at those various price points on the way up, even though it is not guaranteed to get there, but if it does get there, then you are ready to take you pre-planned action, and you are not even locked into your pre-planned action because maybe you preplanned action might set up sell orders at certain price points on the way up, so if the price goes shooting up, then you catch those price points, but if the movement up is taking longer than expected, then you can make changes to your plan prior to your sell orders getting executed. Of course, you don't necessarily need to set any of your sell orders in advance, but if any of them are within striking distance, then you do run a risk of missing the sale if you don't have the closer ones already set up in advance.
I am not even disagreeing with your proposal of looking at past time frames and then trying to make some kind of rough estimation of some kind of parallel BTC price performance based on the historical pattern, but how the hell are you going to get both time and intensity correct? and maybe you might suggest that you do not need to get them exactly correct, you just need to be in the ballpark of correct, so then you just end up back to the same question that I attempted to pose earlier of just letting the BTC price come to you and already having your orders in place which just have to do with price and not trying to combine it with time, so you just have the orders preset at various increments.
By the way, another thing that I was thinking is that for BTC accumulators who seem to believe that they do not have enough BTC (and you seem to be placing yourself into such camp), then selling on the way up is not a way to accumulate more bitcoin but instead, should be considered as an attempt to employ a kind of insurance in regards to the extreme and inevitable bitcoin volatility (which includes that it goes up and may come back down.. or maybe is likely, but not guaranteed to come back down) - while at the same time not having confidence regarding the volatility direction. So if we are not sure about the extent of BTC's volatility, but we have some kind of assurance that BTC exist - almost as an inevitability (which makes BTC volatility as another constant that you failed/refused to list as one of your constants.. hahahahahaha), and so we can sell some BTC on the way up as a way to insure ourselves, just in case it falls back down, but we are not guaranteed that it will fall back down nor how much it will fall back down if it ends up falling back down.
All of this being said, after starting my spreadsheet and hypothetical scenarios, I really feel the best course of action, for me personally, is to hold and continue to accumulate through purchases with current income methods.
I kind of said that previously, and of course, you are seeming to have dilemmas about this, and I am not even going to blame you for having the dilemmas, even though it does kind of seem that the best way to keep building up the size of your BTC stash is to keep adding to it, and then you end up knowing which way it is going, which is constantly UP in size, even if some sats cost you more money than other sats... but then after you end up getting to a certain size of a BTC stash, then it might start to become clear that you have enough and you are able to sell some of them (surely not recommending ever selling all of them absent your wanting to completely get out of BTC), and so when you have reached a certain level of BTC stash, you might even want to divide some of your stash into one category and other parts of your stash into other categories based on their cost basis, and maybe you also have some calculations that account for the cost basis of your total stash.
I am going to go by your forum registration date, and let's say for example that up until now you have accumulated 10 BTC, and maybe you have made a lot of mistakes along the way.. so we are largely plugging you into our earlier HypoMyth chart in which you have either reached or are close to reaching 10 BTC, but you have spent around $100k for your BTC, so you have an average cost basis of about $10k for your BTC up until this point.
Let's say that you are anticipating that you will accumulate BTC for one or two more cycles, so you could create a separate budget in which you are buying anywhere between $100 and $1k in BTC per week, and you anticipate that in the coming 4-8 years you will be able to accumulate a couple more BTC, but surely, you are not completely confident, so it could be the case that you have two different ways of conceptualizing your BTC that include your pre-2024 BTC in one category and your post 2024 BTC in another category, and maybe your cost basis for your post 2024 BTC might go up into a lot higher numbers, and surely if you keep accumulating BTC at these prices (and potentially higher), you are going to be causing an overall UPpity draw on the cost basis of all of your BTC, and so there could be reasons to separate out your coins because you might not want to engage in any sales of any of your BTC that are purchased after a certain date unless they are in a certain percentage of profits, and since your earlier BTC have a lower cost basis, you might feel that you have more liberty with those earlier purchased BTC, yet you still might run into some dilemmas in regards to why you are treating different parts of your already established BTC stash in different ways.. but it could make some sense to make sure that you are into any of your later accumulated BTC prior to selling them, and sure, maybe you had accumulated some BTC between early 2021 and about May 2022 that have way higher cost bases, as compared to other parts of your BTC stash, so maybe you would also like to exclude any of your coins (satoshis) that you had accumulated supra $30k so that you are making sure that you are ONLY selling BTC in proportion to your BTC that are profitable higher than a certain amount, rather than selling from your whole stash.
At the same time, maybe none of this matters, since if you are considering that your first sale is not going to come until the BTC price is at least $130k, then therefore, you could treat all of your coins that are acquired for less than $65k (that is that they would have at least double appreciation by the time the BTC price were to reach $130k) in one category, and maybe you ONLY start to separate out any coins that you purchase for more than $65k so that you treat those supra $65k coins in a separate category, but you try to siimplify your accounting in regards to all of your sub-$65k coins all fitting in the same category.
I am just throwing out some ideas, and there surely could be ways that you could consider separating your coins into differing categories in ways that make sense to your own situation and whatever particular peculiarities might have had happened with your own BTC accumulation journey in the past 6-ish years (or whatever might be your actual BTC accumulation timeline).
Additionally, with Greyhats recent post about taxes and the income tax it makes more sense to potentially be able to withdraw at a time where cap gains tax may not even apply to me vs trying to gain back a 20% hit on anything that is sold.
Sure, in some cases the tax implications might contribute towards which direction that you might go, and what kind of accounting (costs) that you believe that you need to assure are covered. I have seen some people engage in some pretty weird conduct merely because they were trying to avoid or minimize taxes, and sometimes it does not look very pretty. I even had a business relationship in which I knew that they were using me in order that they could avoid taxes, and I told them that if I sent them the value then they are avoiding certain level of taxes, but then I would be incurring taxes on my end, and we still ended up going through with the deal, and surely I ended up paying more taxes than they would have ended up paying if we had not ended up doing the deal, and so sometimes it can be a little stressful to see that more fees and/or taxes are going to be incurred under certain kinds of structures, and surely you had already mentioned that there can be ways that you make sure that you might either cash out differing amounts or you might adjust your buy/sell parameters based on your considerations of some of the potentially additional costs.
Additionally, I don't take anything you say as hostile. I appreciate your point of view and enjoy exploring these different ideas.
**some of the graphs would not link as an image but are found in the source links**
No problem. I was not sure how you were going to take HypoMyth.. because sometimes we might end up getting locked into a kind of image of a person that might not really reflect our facts very closely, just as there is a member who seems to get irritated by being the guy who bought 20 BTC in 2015 and then did not continue to add to his position for a considerable amount of time, and so sometimes we might end up making comparisons/contrasts that are not really very flattering.
I have even had some of my own from time to time...and for example, sometimes there are some forum members who suggest that they cannot relate to some of the scenarios that I am putting out there, and there is no way that they could have had accumulated that many BTC in the amount of time that I outlined based on their own financial situation, yet I might not agree to change the hypothetical, because sometimes we could have a hypothetical that we just end up having to divide everything by 10 in order to arrive at numbers that are relatable, and at the same time, with our fees staying high for so long, it is seeming less and less practical for guys who are buying $10 of BTC per week (or worse yet, $10 per month) to be transferring those BTC to private storage in such small amounts, so sometimes there is a kind of balancing that needs to be considered in terms of maybe allowing the amount held with a third party to get up to $500 or even $1k before transferring the amounts to a private wallet, even if it might take 1 or 2 years to get to something like $500 or $1k in value being held by someone who is ONLY buying $10 per week or $10 per month... and sometimes I have to guess in regards to how some members are able to acquire their BTC because sometimes it might not be easy to transfer such low amounts onto an exchange or some other place that maybe some value is being held in dollars and/or in bitcoin, and if transactions are happening peer to peer, then some people might not want to transact under a certain amount.
When dealing with quasi-strangers, I used to have a minimum of $300, but I knew people who had minimums that were way higher than mine, but surely if we are in poor countries, we might appreciate how there could be some accommodation to transact with smaller amounts and have a lower minimum... and by the way, I was recently in a place that is considered a quite poor location, and I was trying to find some ways to get local cash, and it seems that the BATMs were charging around 8%, but I ran across a guy who said that he was willing to do 3%, and surely in the end, I figured out that he was a bit of a scammer because we actually spent quite a bit of back and forth and I was trying to teach him about some bitcoin matters, but he had some other things that he was wanting to transact with me in regards to bitcoin, so in some sense we were talking about the various other things that we could transact, yet at the same time, I told him that I wanted to have a test BTC transaction go through first prior to conducting any of those other business arrangements, even though I did not mind clarifying the terms of the various other business arrangements. So I was initially going to do a transaction of around $500, but then he seemed to want to do at least $1k, and I was more or less willing to entertain the idea of a minimum of $1k, even though I told him that I thought that he was being a bit unreasonable based on so many of the circumstances, including that he did not really seem to know what he was doing in regards to bitcoin and also that he would have had the potential of getting other business through me if we were to have our first test transaction go through successfully, and in the end, the matter ended up falling through and he had some subsequent communications with me that caused me to conclude that I do not want to ever meet with him again, absent running into him, he is a person to be avoided...and it can be sad if we start to believe that we might be building up some kind of longer term relationship and then it ends up falling through because the other person ends up having way differing expecations, goals and even willingness to go to places that rise to the level of red flags.
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