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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26369770 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
DaRude
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January 19, 2024, 07:39:10 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (19), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Today, the market is dumped ETF seems not to make difference to the price tho


https://twitter.com/WhaleWire/status/1748065165491188212

what do you guys think?

I think that this twitter poster does not know "maf":

0.001% is 1/100000 of value.
1/100000 of about 800 bil is 8 million.
I am 100% sure that more than 8 mil was deposited into ETFs.
In fact, it's more like 80-100X of 8 million.


But mafs are hard! It's hard to gauge how much of it is being reshuffled vs cashing out vs new money coming in. GBTC has been selling over BTC10.000/day, but others see inflows that more than offset it. Also. futures and ETFs in other countries see outflows, and now there are also rumors of miners dumping BTC10.000. So no one really knows what to make out of it thus the volatility, but what we do know is at $42k/BTC we only need $38MM of new capital inflow per day to buy up all new BTC, and that's about to drop to just $19MM/day in 3 month, and then just $9.5MM/day in about 4yrs3m...not just in ETFs but globally
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January 19, 2024, 08:01:14 AM


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January 19, 2024, 09:01:18 AM


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January 19, 2024, 09:55:09 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), LoyceV (4), hisslyness (2), vapourminer (1), JimboToronto (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Today, the market is dumped ETF seems not to make difference to the price tho


https://twitter.com/WhaleWire/status/1748065165491188212

what do you guys think?

I think that this twitter poster does not know "maf":

0.001% is 1/100000 of value.
1/100000 of about 800 bil is 8 million.
I am 100% sure that more than 8 mil was deposited into ETFs.
In fact, it's more like 80-100X of 8 million.

Correct. The correct value is 0.1%, and that is the daily trade value, not what is held, which is probably higher.

The total gold ETF market cap is 1.7% of all gold.

I'd say BTC has done well getting 5+% of that share within a week.

Consider that gold is a much bigger marketcap pie and the ETFs have been trading for 20 years, and importantly does not have the massive new supply limitation every 4 years.

It will be very interesting to see where this goes 4-8-12 years from now.


Furthermore, that tweet is extremely negative from the first few words. It's like saying here in the UK temperatures dropped to yearly lows yesterday. It's just stupid. The year just got started!

Not until you are about halfway through the year do I think it's acceptable to write stuff like "yearly lows" etc.
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January 19, 2024, 10:01:15 AM


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January 19, 2024, 10:08:46 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), JayJuanGee (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

Blackrock iShare Bitcoin Trust ETF has increased their position from $499M to $707M as of 16th January 2024...

Make that $1.06B as of the 17th January 2024

+$300M in 1 day…

Upswing will come, in the meantime HODL strong and BTFD!
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January 19, 2024, 10:30:53 AM

Blackrock iShare Bitcoin Trust ETF has increased their position from $499M to $707M as of 16th January 2024...

Make that $1.06B as of the 17th January 2024

+$300M in 1 day…

Upswing will come, in the meantime HODL strong and BTFD!

Always funny how a long term developing taxonomy is being evaluated from a short term view, regarding that 0,001% tweet  Cheesy
It seems like the old "It's a bubble" narrative from 10 years ago managed to hold up.

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January 19, 2024, 11:03:23 AM


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January 19, 2024, 01:21:29 PM

Those sell walls look like steps.
While coins down a little I'm looking to earn some if y'all got any task or anything yall'd like to remotely outsource shoot me a pm.
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January 19, 2024, 01:25:08 PM

Blackrock iShare Bitcoin Trust ETF has increased their position from $499M to $707M as of 16th January 2024...

Make that $1.06B as of the 17th January 2024

+$300M in 1 day…

Upswing will come, in the meantime HODL strong and BTFD!

Always funny how a long term developing taxonomy is being evaluated from a short term view, regarding that 0,001% tweet  Cheesy
It seems like the old "It's a bubble" narrative from 10 years ago managed to hold up.


I love how you are referencing Bitcoin as a living/breathing organism!… reminds me of my early days working at a clients operation, you could stand back and just watch the place run, better than a well oiled machine…

But you are right, short term views seem to have a greater impact on people choices. Maybe it’s due to the fact attentions spans are being decimated to quarter mile times! I blame tiktok/IG Reels and YT shorts!
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 19, 2024, 01:59:32 PM
Merited by bitcoinPsycho (1), OutOfMemory (1)

...wondering if we're not going to re-test $40k at this rate.

or 30k  Tongue

Split the difference?

done, ill go set my buys @ 35k now

But but

Last months been able of buying those prices and cheaper all the time…

i have emergency fiat stashes i keep for occasions like this

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January 19, 2024, 02:03:23 PM


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January 19, 2024, 02:35:17 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2024, 02:56:48 PM by OutOfMemory

Blackrock iShare Bitcoin Trust ETF has increased their position from $499M to $707M as of 16th January 2024...

Make that $1.06B as of the 17th January 2024

+$300M in 1 day…

Upswing will come, in the meantime HODL strong and BTFD!

Always funny how a long term developing taxonomy is being evaluated from a short term view, regarding that 0,001% tweet  Cheesy
It seems like the old "It's a bubble" narrative from 10 years ago managed to hold up.


I love how you are referencing Bitcoin as a living/breathing organism!… reminds me of my early days working at a clients operation, you could stand back and just watch the place run, better than a well oiled machine…

But you are right, short term views seem to have a greater impact on people choices. Maybe it’s due to the fact attentions spans are being decimated to quarter mile times! I blame tiktok/IG Reels and YT shorts!


I bet you're right regarding that short attention spans, at least it feels plausible, as far as i can compare with my observations of "close" society.
But: The dynamics behind this behaviour is also able to be explained by (lack of) impulse control and also extrapolation of short-term events onto the mid to far future.
Extrapolation in the means of, for example, a short dip not bought up within a day or two seems to project fearful thoughts between "we're going down moar, soon" and "the whole BTC bubble will pop, soon" in more than just some individuals. While i know these fears personally from my own past, they were always cured by zooming out and remembering myself about the timed market cycles. My impulse responses almost always led me to the wrong decisions, in hindsight. I have to admit though, that i suffer from impulse control disability to a good degree, but i have learned to manage it through awareness and discipline. Two things you can't really expect from a good part of market participants. Becoming a Bitcoiner was awfully accelerating that learning process, to be honest.
On the other hand, short term up's seem to ramp up the number of longs through greed and fomo, and those seem to be liquidated very often when the FOMO is correcting shortly afterwards. I was keeping my hands off leverage for a reason and it was good that way  Cool

EDIT: After thinking over my reply, i guess it's mostly the YOLO (which, in my opinion is half way mistunderstood, see below) society that is prone to impulsive decisions.

And YOLO, the term for "don't care about the future", is in fact a very precious concept, when you look at it the yin-yang way:
There are times you should not care too much about consequences of your decisions, resulting in missing out opportunities you can take only one time in your life.
But there are times, you should indeed care about such consequences, because these could degrade or prematurely end the one precious life you have been born into.
So, YOLO advises one to weigh the importance of the now gainst of that of the tomorrow. That's the way i understand it.

A better term to replace (the half way misunderstood) YOLO! in a more meaningful way would be "Live fast, die young", as we said in the old times  Grin

Enuff of the offtopic now  Wink


But but

Last months been able of buying those prices and cheaper all the time…

i have emergency fiat stashes i keep for occasions like this



I started to build these kind of reserves too, recently.
Just pointed that out a page three pages back or so...
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January 19, 2024, 03:03:28 PM


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January 19, 2024, 03:14:13 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), BitcoinBunny (2)

Correct. The correct value is 0.1%, and that is the daily trade value, not what is held, which is probably higher.

The total gold ETF market cap is 1.7% of all gold.
In my book, 0.1% per day is huge! If they keep this up for a while, especially with the oncoming halving, the scarcity will be felt. And once the scarcity is felt, prices must go up.
Unless of course those ETF guys are going fractional reserve Bitcoin, but that would be Madoff level and I don't think they're willing to take that risk.
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January 19, 2024, 03:52:50 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (2), bitcoinPsycho (1), OutOfMemory (1)

Don't worry about the price drop. Any seasoned HoDLer knows that this can happen.

Remember: Halving in 3 months -- ETFs approved -- Such economic processes often have long dead times.

Don't act like mindrust -- we all know better than this.
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January 19, 2024, 04:00:33 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Fucking Barry Shillbert can't stop dumping... Retarded mother-fucker...
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