Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

so how would Bitcoin affect the 60/40 might be a matter of whether all is taken from the 40 or if some might stay in the 40...

I'm actually 40 and I was never into 60/40 portfolio. To me the "40" sucked. It was something my father, who was in his 70s, was holding when I was making my first steps in "investments" (which in other words meant I had enough money to start thinking about it).
Out of all my friends nobody had any bonds. The prime thing to own if you had funds was real estate and for those with less liquidity either collectibles or stocks (usually tech). 10 years later I still don't own any bonds. My portfolio is 70% bitcoin 20% real estate 10% fiat, although numbers can change rapidly. If we go to $100k the value of it will exceed 90% bitcoin.

You seem to be skipping both the 60 and the 40.. since 60 is equities, and when I first got into bitcoin, I was shooting towards something like 10% into bitcoin, but I actually did not realize that was what I was shooting for until I was in bitcoin for nearly a year.

You can see how my allocations have changed over the years (at least until mid-2022) in my descriptive post regarding how my allocations had changed between 2013 when I first got into bitcoin and the time of that post... and by the way, my category of a hybrid income, that was largely a 60/40 set up within that.. but then I had other things too...

And, yeah, you can see from that chart that I had already gotten up to something close to 90% bitcoin based on my likely shared practice of not really reallocating, even though I do have a practice of selling on the way up and buying back on the way down which might end up in some forms of reallocation.. kind of at a more subtle level...and yeah, I am not sure how I feel about the allocations to bitcoin that are more than 90%.  I am thinking  that I am a bit uncomfortable with that, yet at the same time, I am not really wanting to reallocate, since I am having trouble figuring out better places to put bitcoin value... .. and so maybe I just have to try to be more creative..

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[1714228026]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[dragonvslinux]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

[Biodom]

<snip> (convince me otherwise).

Why should we...you already have it all mapped out  

Imho, unless we go under 36K on a weekly, we are still in a bull phase.

[ChartBuddy]

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[dragonvslinux]

<snip> (convince me otherwise).

Why should we...you already have it all mapped out  

Lol, yeh unless price says otherwise, I feel like I do. Or at least the 4 cycle does, which I am simply plagiarising here.

2023: bullish followed by "mini bear" (I have believed this since 2022 and so far wrong by about 10 days of 2024 being bullish though)
2024: early bearish followed by bullish (not sure on trend change though, this could be in april followed by consolidation, who knows etc)

Didn't you also have the 0.618 mapped out for a rebound to $48K for over a year? What happened?! Was it "EtF hYpE" related?

Genuinely curious here, as you were one of the few who thought such a strong rebound was possible...

Imho, unless we go under 36K on a weekly, we are still in a bull phase.

Totally agree based on say 20 Week MA @ $35.5K that is rising fast, support from here would mean immediate bullish continuation. My only issue is that it's in no mans land (ie low trade volume #mindthegap), so I don't believe price will find support in this range. Similar to how once $30K was broken to the upside, I didn't believe there would be any resistance until around $38K. If people want to believe in no mans land, then sure, it happens, it's just rare that price reverses in these areas without considerable trading volume building up first, that's all. But sure, let's just agree that anything could happen here. Like $100K tomorrow.

Overall unless we go under $30K we are still in a bull "phase" (based on bullish Weekly MA 50 & 200 crossover and price level, fib retracements etc) - as opposed to long-term bearish, like 2022, or even a neutral market for that matter. However, price would also remain bullish finding support from Ichimoku Cloud baseline support at $23K as well, so there is a margin for error, like lower prices than most expect to be the most bearish. You could also argue I'm not bearish long-term at all, despite thinking that $30K is now likely, for the reason provided, because this would simply be a bullish correction from a long-term bull trend.

My main concern is simply how bullish everyone remains, now that 2023 is over, as if 2019 (-60% from high to low) and 2015 (-70% from high to low) didn't exist as concepts for Bitcoin as part of a 4 year cycle, because "everything is different now". While this could be "completely true", it has also been the narrative since 2013, and to put it simply, has never been the case so far. But I guess eventually, say it 10 times over, and it'll happen eventually... so there is that. I do however think that 2024 won't correct as far as 2019 and 2015, with only up to around -50% - which is quite an optimistic outlook compared to previous corrections I think.

[JayJuanGee]

<snip> (convince me otherwise).

Why should we...you already have it all mapped out  

Imho, unless we go under 36K on a weekly, we are still in a bull phase.

For meeeeeeeeeee, a break below $36k (or $35k) would merely mean that we broke to the downside out of the the don't wake me up zone, which is currently something like $35k to $55k.

In other words, we seem to be in a bull phase (or a bull trend or whatever you want to call it) since around the end of 2022, even though we might not have realized it (realized that the $15,479 bottom was in) until either the middle or the end of 2023.. .

In other words, anyone seeing us revisiting the bottom or even sub $20k?  

Alternatively anyone see us going below the 200-week moving average for any significant period of time?  

The 200-week moving average is currently about $30.25k...

I am not sure what it would take for me to conclude that the bull phase is over, especially given that we spent around 16 months either below the 200-week moving average are bouncing around close to it... and right now, as I type this post, we are about 37% above the 200-WMA, so sure on January 11, we had a BTC price peak that brought us to right around 60% above the 200-week moving average, so BTC price performance had seemed to have had been better, just a bit over a week ago, but still 37% above the 200-week moving average is not a bad place to be considering where we spent a lot of time between mid 2022 and about October 2023.

[ChartBuddy]

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[FinePoine0]

<snip> (convince me otherwise).

Why should we...you already have it all mapped out  

Imho, unless we go under 36K on a weekly, we are still in a bull phase.

Bitcoin price does not seem to enter below 40k. Already we are going through a touch of a bull run, as it is a short bull run as the bitcoin halving is very likely to take place by mid-April.
 And it is very likely that the price of Bitcoin will increase several times more from the post-halving period. Then we will be in the middle of the big bull run.

For now, I think the price of Bitcoin will stay between 40k and 42k.

[El duderino_]

Just normal market

After years and years I just have seen when going up there are a few stops down….
Never been different

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[WatChe]

Just came across this picture while browsing Facebook and thought it's worth sharing.
Those who are in there 30s or 40s and doing job must realise that aspect and those who are retired can tell its true or not.


Image from Facebook.

[ChartBuddy]

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[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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All credit to ChartBuddy

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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