Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

With yesterday's outflow, GBTC have sold 51 000 coins, which is 8.2% of their initial holdings. It is quite possible this will continue at least for a week. Most probably until either they lower the fee, or lose all their customers. Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees? This is a rhetorical question of course. Until this issue is resolved there will be some volatility. And a possibility for some pre halving big dump like in 2020. Don't forget that the traders are stupid. If there are 100 good news and only 1 bad news, they will still dump.  Eventually, the price will reflect the supply shock and ETF's probably will have a major influence for that.

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[1714197863]

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[AlcoHoDL]

Reading WO's posts/reports about so much corn selling happening lately, it just dawned on me how strong the Bitcoin price has held so far. I consider the current dip as ant-sized, given the amount of selling. Not claiming to be an expert in such matters, this is just a long-time HoDLer's gut feeling.

Just imagine what will happen when the selling stops, big investors pour in, demand increases, and the buying craze begins... And all this happening in a Halving year!

The incoming pump will be stratospheric! 6 digits guaranteed, soon^TM.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ambatman]

Just imagine what will happen when the selling stops, big investors pour in, demand increases, and the buying craze begins... And all this happening in a Halving year!

The incoming pump will be stratospheric! 6 digits guaranteed, soon^TM.

I'd prefer using exospheric.
The bigger the dip the stronger the recovery.
2022 dip is a proof of that
Still surprises me why i barely feel the dip compare to how i was in the future
I still hate seeing red color though.
In 2022 dip, i thought lady luck had a personal vendetta against me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[psycodad]

[bitebits]

The halving is near. Sell your bitcoin while you can. This time is different ©.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Just came across this picture while browsing Facebook and thought it's worth sharing.
Those who are in there 30s or 40s and doing job must realise that aspect and those who are retired can tell its true or not.


Image from Facebook.

My wife will remember how hard I worked at mining BTC.

I remember how hard she worked at her job. She is retired.She worked 1980 to 2012.

Our kids are dead so they won’t remember.

Do my wife’s former bosses remember how much time she gave them nope.


Will my mining partner’s care about the time i put in from 2018 to 2024. Maybe one of the three will care in twenty years.

So the sign has some value.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

<snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees?

Well:

1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money.
2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out.
3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick?

[xhomerx10]

The halving is near. Sell your bitcoin while you can. This time is different ©.

 
                     
                     

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ivomm]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

<snip>Why should one prefer the well established Blackrock, Fidelidy, etc. with their low fees and fair play, over some FTX kinda shady company with high fees?

Well:

1. With high volatility yearly fee of 1.5% is irrelevant because every day it moves more than that, so if you try to flip one ETF for another, you can easily lose money.
2. In the last 5 days GBTC outperformed IBIT by 0.7% and FBTC by 0.8%, check it out.
3. Your statement is a borderline defamation...do you actually know that they are what you say they are or you just spewing stuff and hope that it will stick?

Well, your logic is like the principle buy low sell high. Sounds true, but in reality most of the daily traders do the opposite. Trying to defend Greyscale leadership is pointless. They prefer to take the big money now, rather than to try to keep their clients. And definitely they are not caring what damage this will inflict on the price.  Btw,  there are some good explanations for what's going on, like this one:

"Note: the more we think about it and talk to ppl, prob only a small minority of the GBTC outflows are likely going to the Nine right now as much of it was FTX and traders who arb-ed discount. Also the proportionality of the flows to the size of the firm is almost perfect, indicating flows due to reach/distribution/hustle."
https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1748696162725458229

[JayJuanGee]

Just imagine what will happen when the selling stops, big investors pour in, demand increases, and the buying craze begins... And all this happening in a Halving year!

The incoming pump will be stratospheric! 6 digits guaranteed, soon^TM.

I'd prefer using exospheric.
The bigger the dip the stronger the recovery.
2022 dip is a proof of that
Still surprises me why i barely feel the dip compare to how i was in the future
I still hate seeing red color though.
In 2022 dip, i thought lady luck had a personal vendetta against me.

The bigger the dip, the bigger the recovery.. .

that is a strange view of bitcoin and contains a kind of presumption that bitcoin's price slope is inevitable, which surely I question how much something like that can be relied upon - even though we likely understand that there is a certain power that comes with digital scarcity in a kind of asset class that never previously existed.. so that does likely lend to a certain amount of UPpity inevitability, but still I question about magnitude, time and various set backs, even though the price has a lot of ongoing UPpity price pressures.. even when there are various attempts to manipulate and to attack, but if from time to time there are needs to produce the coins (or to show that you actually have them) .. or even distrust in others holding your coins, then it becomes a lot harder to not enter into risks if you don't have the coins that you claim to have....

What does it mean?

A kind of stair-step chasm between the "this is fine" doggie and his coffee?

[WatChe]

Just came across this picture while browsing Facebook and thought it's worth sharing.
Those who are in there 30s or 40s and doing job must realise that aspect and those who are retired can tell its true or not.


Image from Facebook.

My wife will remember how hard I worked at mining BTC.

I remember how hard she worked at her job. She is retired.She worked 1980 to 2012.

Do my wife’s former bosses remember how much time she gave them nope.

Will my mining partner’s care about the time i put in from 2018 to 2024. Maybe one of the three will care in twenty years.

So the sign has some value.

It's about maintaining balance between family life and work. Life is short so we must enjoy it as much as we can. There are people around who spends too much time in offices or in business giving less time to family, that scenario must be avoided. If we ignore our kids while they are young then they will ignore us while we need them in old age.      

Our kids are dead so they won’t remember.

Sorry to hear that. That's painful.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com