Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

AIs everywhere...
Be sure to count them knuckles,
Before you believe!

Do robots need teeth?
A Terminator sure does.
Clothes, boots and bikes too!

Was once a Christian.
Dated a Christian girl too.
Sweet looks, dirty mind...

Larry Fink et al.,
Hot and bothered about corn!
A sight for sore eyes...

So when "fuck you" come?
How many months will it take?
Time for a baby?

Wanna sell some corn?
Don't even think about it!
Read below, instead.

Friendly reminder.
Monday the 22nd.
You know what to do.

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[1714603389]

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[Ambatman]

2 days around 41,600$ next is a pull back or a spike. I give 63% chance of a spike. 44K$ is my target.

The market needs a positive news currently to undergo such. Its been under $43K for too long

[Volgastallion]

Change of location

Where the dude @
Hoping it’s not to easy this time

Distopic world, where the wall between USA and Mexico was finally build and was made of stone and not from wires or bars.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Apple's Vision Pro (in US only at the moment)-somewhat cool tech, but at about $4K (including tax and an optical insert) it's 0.096 btc or about.
Of course, you can put it on a card too, I am just comparing.
I was seriously considering it, but decided against it for a reason that I can't think of an important use case for me at the moment, I cannot share it with the family (because it is individually strapped) and it is too solitary. Well, maybe it is cool to look at photos and videos, including movies, but having something that weights 650g (1.43 lb) on your head for long periods of time could be uncomfortable.

Any of you went for it?

[WatChe]

Reading WO's posts/reports about so much corn selling happening lately, it just dawned on me how strong the Bitcoin price has held so far. I consider the current dip as ant-sized, given the amount of selling. Not claiming to be an expert in such matters, this is just a long-time HoDLer's gut feeling.

Just imagine what will happen when the selling stops, big investors pour in, demand increases, and the buying craze begins... And all this happening in a Halving year!

The incoming pump will be stratospheric! 6 digits guaranteed, soon^TM.

There was a small dip yesterday and today there is recovery cycle.
No matter what happens to price of Bitcoin, just HODL to have bigger piece of the cake.
6 digit is guaranteed, can't say this year or next.

[AlcoHoDL]

Reading WO's posts/reports about so much corn selling happening lately, it just dawned on me how strong the Bitcoin price has held so far. I consider the current dip as ant-sized, given the amount of selling. Not claiming to be an expert in such matters, this is just a long-time HoDLer's gut feeling.

Just imagine what will happen when the selling stops, big investors pour in, demand increases, and the buying craze begins... And all this happening in a Halving year!

The incoming pump will be stratospheric! 6 digits guaranteed, soon^TM.

There was a small dip yesterday and today there is recovery cycle.
No matter what happens to price of Bitcoin, just HODL to have bigger piece of the cake.
6 digit is guaranteed, can't say this year or next.

I think the chances of 6-digit prices this year are significant, but there are no guarantees, hence the "soon^TM" in my post above.

I expect mostly good things for this year and the next. Halving years are always fun.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitmover]

I still see that glitch. Correct me if I am the only one getting that error? Bitmover says its fixed but not at my end.

Price of Bitcoin is way ahead of 200-week moving average which is 30k$, so there is nothing to worry about. Just a small dip and Bitcoin once again back onto track.
There was too much expectations from newly launched ETF's and they fail to have any significant impact on bitcoin price in there initial days of launch. Give it few more days and we will see whether they can have any impact on bitcoin price.

Maybe cache problems.
Try Ctrl F5.

Do you still see the glitch?

[JayJuanGee]

The 200-week moving average is currently about $30.25k...

Thanks to awesome work by Bitmover now we have a tool where we can instantly see Price of bitcoin vs 200-week moving average.

Bitcoin got a good rebound from 40k$. So there is chance that Bitcoin may move back in the window of 43 - 45k. Let's see what price of Bitcoin will be for next 2 to 3 days and that will give more clarity about where price is heading.

Yes.. thanks to bitmover.. and yes, the site shows the difference between the BTC spot price and the 200-week moving average, and even being able to select it for historical dates.

However, right now (maybe for the last 2-3 days), there has been some kind of glitch in the site, and the site is not registering the inputs on the left side in order to show the outputs on the right side of the portfolio balance values and the monthly authorized withdrawal amounts based on the inputs.

Hey, it's working again. I made a mistake while uploading the files for the last version.! You can check it out.

I will soon add it to the menu of the website

I still see that glitch. Correct me if I am the only one getting that error? Bitmover says its fixed but not at my end.

At the time that I first reported the glitch to Bitmover (maybe a day ago), I had not been able to load the page through any of four browsers, which were Chrome and Safari on the Mac and also Chrome and Safari on IOS.  Then about 8 hours later, he said that he fixed it, and I said that I still was not able to load the pages, but then by the time he posted here (the above post), I was able to load it on Mac on the Safari, but not the other four, and then I loaded DuckDuckGo on my IOS, and I was able to load it from there too.. so that is why I sent a merit to Bitmover because I saw it as mostly resolved, even though it was ONLY loading on 2 out of 5 of my available browsers.  In the last 3-4 hours, it has been loading on all 5 of my browsers, so I figure it is working now.

By the way, I do see how some of us could start to get addicted to such a tool, and I have not yet seen anyone imitating it, which also is one of the great things about some of these ideas that can become more and more common with the passage of time and with people talking about them.

Price of Bitcoin is way ahead of 200-week moving average which is 30k$, so there is nothing to worry about. Just a small dip and Bitcoin once again back onto track.

Yes.  We can see that we had gotten up to $49,048 which is 63% above the 200-WMA on the 11th (even though the daily average only shows 55%-ish) and then dipped down to around 36% above the 200-WMA on the daily average on the 19th, (but if we manually calculate the spot price we will see the spot price at $40,258 had dipped to only 33% above the 200-wma), but then now we are a bit over 37% above the 200-week moving average.

There was too much expectations from newly launched ETF's and they fail to have any significant impact on bitcoin price in there initial days of launch. Give it few more days and we will see whether they can have any impact on bitcoin price.

Seems like noise to me.  We are going to get these kinds of moves, and probably part of the justification for keeping the don't wake me up zone so large between $35k and $55k because it should be difficult to figure out why any of us longer term bitcoiners should be getting too excited about price fluctuations within the context of such a broad don't wake me up zone.. even though I still watch it, it still is not anything to get too worked up about until maybe we start getting closer to one side or the other of the range... rather than mostly bouncing around the middle.. maybe the lower middle or the upper middle, but still largely the middle.

2 days around 41,600$ next is a pull back or a spike. I give 63% chance of a spike. 44K$ is my target.

The market needs a positive news currently to undergo such. Its been under $43K for too long

Define "too long"

You really need a reality check.

[Biodom]

Hey, it's working again. I made a mistake while uploading the files for the last version.! You can check it out.

I will soon add it to the menu of the website

I still see that glitch. Correct me if I am the only one getting that error? Bitmover says its fixed but not at my end.

Price of Bitcoin is way ahead of 200-week moving average which is 30k$, so there is nothing to worry about. Just a small dip and Bitcoin once again back onto track.
There was too much expectations from newly launched ETF's and they fail to have any significant impact on bitcoin price in there initial days of launch. Give it few more days and we will see whether they can have any impact on bitcoin price.

No glitch for me...great site, thanks @bitmover and @jjg (for providing some excel sheets).
It's kind of both inspiring and sobering at the same time, though. Let me explain what I mean:

Even if someone has 10 bitcoins (which is at least 3810X of what an average earthling can have IF bitcoin is more or less equally distributed), they still can use only $1380/mo, if I understand it correctly. This site (https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html) says that only 864K addresses have 1-10 btc.
What i am basically getting at is that even if someone has 10btc ($400K roughly), they can only "rake" $1.4K a mo from it (if you go with a conservative 4% instead of default 6%), which is enough only for just a subsistent living in US.

EDIT: a simple calculation shows that for a comfortable in most of the country mid to low upper middle class living ($10K/mo) you need approx 72-73 btc (only 130K people maximum have that in the whole world or 0.29% of bitcoin wallets, same reference as above).

Why inspiring? Because it shows the price appreciation potential as having the top 1mil out of potential 8 bil wallets (simplification, of course) or 0.0125% OUGHT to be enough to provide more than barely surviving in the future, all things considered.

TL;DR Even bitcoin "rich" with 10 btc cannot use it for a sustained living YET.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

There was a small dip yesterday and today there is recovery cycle.
No matter what happens to price of Bitcoin, just HODL to have bigger piece of the cake.
6 digit is guaranteed, can't say this year or next.

I think the chances of 6-digit prices this year are significant, but there are no guarantees, hence the "soon^TM" in my post above.

I expect mostly good things for this year and the next. Halving years are always fun.

It's good to have good feeling about coming days.
My feelings are that we will see 6 figure this year or latest by next year. It's affirm from my side 

...

Maybe cache problems.
Try Ctrl F5.

Do you still see the glitch?

It's fixed now. Thank you for the prompt reply.

At the time that I first reported the glitch to Bitmover (maybe a day ago), I had not been able to load the page through any of four browsers, which were Chrome and Safari on the Mac and also Chrome and Safari on IOS.  Then about 8 hours later, he said that he fixed it, and I said that I still was not able to load the pages, but then by the time he posted here (the above post), I was able to load it on Mac on the Safari, but not the other four, and then I loaded DuckDuckGo on my IOS, and I was able to load it from there too.. so that is why I sent a merit to Bitmover because I saw it as mostly resolved, even though it was ONLY loading on 2 out of 5 of my available browsers.  In the last 3-4 hours, it has been loading on all 5 of my browsers, so I figure it is working now.

By the way, I do see how some of us could start to get addicted to such a tool, and I have not yet seen anyone imitating it, which also is one of the great things about some of these ideas that can become more and more common with the passage of time and with people talking about them.

I just checked it on my mobile phone then Firefox running on Ubuntu and finally on Chrome running on my Windows. It's working fine in all 3 environments, so I can say its now fixed. 
This is a great tool developed by Bitmover using the idea of JJG. With time as more people get to know about this tool, its utilisation will defiantly go up.

Seems like noise to me.  We are going to get these kinds of moves, and probably part of the justification for keeping the don't wake me up zone so large between $35k and $55k because it should be difficult to figure out why any of us longer term bitcoiners should be getting too excited about price fluctuations within the context of such a broad don't wake me up zone.. even though I still watch it, it still is not anything to get too worked up about until maybe we start getting closer to one side or the other of the range... rather than mostly bouncing around the middle.. maybe the lower middle or the upper middle, but still largely the middle.

So for now we can say that Bitcoin price will move on its own though there is huge investment coming into these Bitcoin ETF. We will have better understanding about whether these ETFs will increase bitcoin price or not in a month or two.
Long term investors can just sit back and relax because we are very much in don't wake me up zone - 35 to 55k$.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Pretty good tweet I saw below. Obviously ignore the shitcoin references.

Bitcoin only.



@Ashcryptoreal
BITCOIN WILL HIT $250K IN 2025

Here's how this will happen 👇

Bitcoin has always followed a 4-year crypto cycle

➜ 1 year of recovery

➜ 1 year of halving (the same year BTC hits a new ATH)

➜ 1 year of a full-blown parabolic run

➜ 1 year of crash (70%–80% drawdown)

Right now, we are into the halving year, and BTC is expected to hit a new ATH in Q4 of 2024

Currently, the BTC price is mimicking the 2020–2021 cycle, so let's see how things will proceed

♦️ Correction before halving (maybe to $30k-$35k)

♦️ A few months of consolidation during the summer

♦️ Bullish Q4 of 2024 and a new ATH of $70,000

♦️ $100k $BTC in Q1 of 2025

♦️ Full-blown altseason where alts will pump 100x-1000x

♦️ Some consolidation and correction in Q2 of 2025

♦️ In Q3 of 2025, the pump will resume, and BTC will hit $200k–$250k in Q4 of 2025.

𝑊ℎ𝑦 𝑊𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝐻𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛?

➡️ The BTC price is always driven by supply and demand.

➡️ With the halving and ETF approval, there will be a reduction in supply emissions, and demand will increase.

𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑊𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐹𝑟𝑜𝑚?

1️⃣ COMPANIES CASH HOLDING

In the US alone, companies hold over $4.5T worth of cash on their balance sheet, which is depreciating in value every year.

With the introduction of new accounting rules, it will be easy for institutions to hold BTC on their balance sheet.

2️⃣ BONDS

Right now, there are over $10T worth of bonds that are yielding 0% or negative, and this money will enter into BTC.

Imagine even 5% of that money entering BTC; it will push BTC to new highs.

3️⃣ GOLD MARKET SHARE

BTC is the new digital gold, and it has every characteristic that makes gold money.

Slowly, people are realizing that BTC is the new gold, and they are flocking to BTC.

Gold has a MCap of $12T, and now with spot ETF approval, it will be even easier for gold investors to dump their gold and hold BTC, which is the superior money.

𝑊ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑 𝑌𝑜𝑢 𝐷𝑜?

🟠 Hold utility-based coins

🟠 Don't panic, and always verify before taking any action.

🟠 Book profits when there is euphoria.

Like and retweet if you found this post
helpful. You can also  bookmark this post so everytime you feel bearish just look at this post for reassurance.

Also, tell me your price prediction for BTC in 2025.

https://x.com/ashcryptoreal/status/1749095312285925394

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Pretty good tweet I saw below. Obviously ignore the shitcoin references.

Bitcoin only.

Also, tell me your price prediction for BTC in 2025.

https://x.com/ashcryptoreal/status/1749095312285925394

Agree with the 2025 prediction, still think that we would be at ~47K at the halving.
However, it "feels" more like 2016 than 2020 so far.
btw, 2015 (prehalving year) also accelerated up at the end, just as 2023 did.
We might see some US tax season selling (around late March, early April), but could see a nice rally afterwards into the halving.
Re liquidity: apparently, the first FED rate cut is now predicted to be no earlier than May...so that "cavalry" will be arriving a bit late.

[darkangel11]

♦️ Correction before halving (maybe to $30k-$35k)

Maybe such pre-halving correction has already occurred. Take 2016 as an example. The Halving was in September and there was no big correction before or after, the price was more or less flat.
The only dip was due to a large bitfinex hack and it was only around 16%. We've just experienced something similar.

[Ambatman]

Define "too long"

You really need a reality check.

3 days?

Pretty good tweet I saw below. Obviously ignore the shitcoin references.

Bitcoin only.



@Ashcryptoreal
BITCOIN WILL HIT $250K IN 2025

Here's how this will happen 👇

Bitcoin has always followed a 4-year crypto cycle

➜ 1 year of recovery

➜ 1 year of halving (the same year BTC hits a new ATH)

➜ 1 year of a full-blown parabolic run

➜ 1 year of crash (70%–80% drawdown)

Right now, we are into the halving year, and BTC is expected to hit a new ATH in Q4 of 2024

Currently, the BTC price is mimicking the 2020–2021 cycle, so let's see how things will proceed

♦️ Correction before halving (maybe to $30k-$35k)

♦️ A few months of consolidation during the summer

♦️ Bullish Q4 of 2024 and a new ATH of $70,000

♦️ $100k $BTC in Q1 of 2025

♦️ Full-blown altseason where alts will pump 100x-1000x

♦️ Some consolidation and correction in Q2 of 2025

♦️ In Q3 of 2025, the pump will resume, and BTC will hit $200k–$250k in Q4 of 2025.

𝑊ℎ𝑦 𝑊𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝐻𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛?

➡️ The BTC price is always driven by supply and demand.

➡️ With the halving and ETF approval, there will be a reduction in supply emissions, and demand will increase.

𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑊𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐹𝑟𝑜𝑚?

1️⃣ COMPANIES CASH HOLDING

In the US alone, companies hold over $4.5T worth of cash on their balance sheet, which is depreciating in value every year.

With the introduction of new accounting rules, it will be easy for institutions to hold BTC on their balance sheet.

2️⃣ BONDS

Right now, there are over $10T worth of bonds that are yielding 0% or negative, and this money will enter into BTC.

Imagine even 5% of that money entering BTC; it will push BTC to new highs.

3️⃣ GOLD MARKET SHARE

BTC is the new digital gold, and it has every characteristic that makes gold money.

Slowly, people are realizing that BTC is the new gold, and they are flocking to BTC.

Gold has a MCap of $12T, and now with spot ETF approval, it will be even easier for gold investors to dump their gold and hold BTC, which is the superior money.

𝑊ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑 𝑌𝑜𝑢 𝐷𝑜?

🟠 Hold utility-based coins

🟠 Don't panic, and always verify before taking any action.

🟠 Book profits when there is euphoria.

Like and retweet if you found this post
helpful. You can also  bookmark this post so everytime you feel bearish just look at this post for reassurance.

Also, tell me your price prediction for BTC in 2025.
https://x.com/ashcryptoreal/status/1749095312285925394

2025 gives me same feeling like 2021, where i believe a new ATH would be created.
I think the last halving brought about 750% increment.
But would development ongoing (in regards to scalability) and increase in the community i believe Bitcoin would be around $185K pessimisticly and barely pass $300K optimistically.
To me i believe the 100K would be a psychological barrier compare to 60K.
But once crossed
I barely see any limit at part from 250K or 500K.

♦️ Correction before halving (maybe to $30k-$35k)

Maybe such pre-halving correction has already occurred. Take 2016 as an example. The Halving was in September and there was no big correction before or after, the price was more or less flat.
The only dip was due to a large bitfinex hack and it was only around 16%. We've just experienced something similar.

The dip is based on the worse likely case scenario.
It happens
It doesn't
As long we holding spot
The funds are safe, only our emotions would be at test.
But knowing we in an halving period, prepares the mind for the following greens.


But 2026? Imo there is a likelihood of a big correction like(almost) 2022.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Pretty good tweet I saw below. Obviously ignore the shitcoin references.

Bitcoin only.

@Ashcryptoreal
BITCOIN WILL HIT $250K IN 2025

From $250k high to capatulation dump below $100k in 2026.

Excellent trading opportunity.