Define "too long"
You really need a reality check.
3 days?
Oh my.
3 days..
At least you are acknowledging the matter.
Acknowledging is a step in the right direction, and I am not going to consider myself a saint, because I have had my moments of impatience and emotionalism in regards to bitcoin, yet I will still point fingers, without naming any members specifically, but there are some members who panic and get all worked up more than others, and no matter how new we are to bitcoin, we should be attempting to figure out ways to accomplish our goals without getting to worked up about them. Many members do seem to get better at controlling their emotionalism in regards to their bitcoin holdings, but it is not like any of us might not be susceptible to flare ups - while at the same time, it seems to be that if we are attempting to put systems into place in which we are always prepared (both financially and psychologically) for either price direction, then we are going to be more prepared to deal with BTC price movements that go against our preferences.
Pretty good tweet I saw below. Obviously ignore the shitcoin references.
Bitcoin only.
@Ashcryptoreal
BITCOIN WILL HIT $250K IN 2025
From $250k high to capatulation dump below $100k in 2026.
Excellent trading opportunity.
Yeah, but how much of your stash are you going to sell, and presumptively you would be wanting to buy back at significantly lower prices, if you could hit those kinds of numbers.
Maybe I would need to presume that you already have enough BTC, maybe we could use 20 BTC? or 10 BTC as a couple of example BTC stash sizes that Biodom had thrown out there? which means that you don't quite have enough BTC, but you still have a decent enough amount to play with.. .. but think about it.. 10 BTC would be $400k right now, and $2.5 million at $250k, and 20 BTC would be double that.
How much of your stash would you be wanting to sell though? Half? 10 BTC in the 20 BTC case or 5 BTC in the 10 BTC case or some other amount way of playing the wave?
And what would be your sell price points? would you be doing it all at once or would you have several stages along the way? or would you have any specific price point(s) in mind? Maybe you would not want to specifically share your various contemplated selling price points with any specificity here? but they still are important considerations.
I am not completely poo poo-ing the idea, since I might decide to engage in some kind of more aggressive sell ladder this time around, but I would still have some difficulties considering selling more than 20% of my stash from todays amount, but since I already widdle away at my own stash.. I already have in a bit of a built-in expected diminishing of my stash that appears to be around 5% reduced by the time we would get to $250k-ish .. and so those are current projections, so who knows regarding to wanting to up the amount to 20% or just to take another 20% off the top from whatever the BTC stash might be at that time.. if we were to get to something like $250k?
Thinking out loud, but I might consider some kind of a plan that might deviate from my potentially "boring" usual. But I still might not know how I would be advantaged by being too lump summing in my approach of making sales (rather than keeping with an incremental system that remains comfortable to me), unless I specifically might have something in mind in terms of a possible purchase(s) that I might want to make, but you are suggesting increasing my stash by theoretically being able to buy back more BTC on the way down..
but what if some of us are already o.k. with the size of our BTC stash.. sure that is possible.. so why be greedy, but also why leave free money on the table too, especially if some of the waves start to become somewhat obvious? , so then maybe it doesn't really deplete the BTC stash too much by shaving off a bit of the extra, excluding the risk that what if the BTC price continues to go up instead of correcting, then we would have to account for that possibility and be willing to live with it, yet might we not feel kind of bad if we sold a decent chunk of BTC way too soon.. and then might not even get our buy back price correct, once we had made the sale and then having some dilemmas in regards to trying to hit various buy back price points.
Pretty good tweet I saw below. Obviously ignore the shitcoin references.
Bitcoin only.
@Ashcryptoreal
BITCOIN WILL HIT $250K IN 2025
From $250k high to capatulation dump below $100k in 2026.
Excellent trading opportunity.
It is reasonable to expect that wild swings like the one you describe could gradually be "tamed" by the ETF players + regulation, resulting in a slower, but more stable and organic growth, that closely resembles the current 50-, 100-, or even 200-WMA trendlines further into the future. This will be good for HoDLers, not so good for traders. Will see how things play out.
Another good point regarding the risks of trying to play too BIG with king daddy. Even with my regular fairly whimpy sales on the way up, I am still generating a lot of cash from those, so why generate even more cash, unless I have a specific reasons, and expecting to buy back cheaper does not seem to be a sufficient enough reason to generate even more cash.. .. but still I am not going to necessarily completely rule out the idea (maybe because of some of the obviousness of leaving quite a bit of money on the table), just that I personally would probably not be playing these kinds of practices with very big percentages of my BTC stash...
Maybe instead of my current selling of around .05% for every 10% rise, maybe if I were to be more aggressive then I would sell 1% or maybe 1.5% or 2% if I am being really aggressive? Perhaps? perhaps?
I still have my current BTC sell orders going up to $150k (which have mostly existed since early 2021, even though Binance did not allow me set sell orders above $100k until maybe around early to mid 2023), so I have not yet considered the exact criteria of my BTC sell orders that might end up getting placed between $150k and $250k or higher.. and whether it might make any sense to deviate from my current pattern (whether that is creating some incremental higher amounts or maybe throwing in some extra lump sum selling amounts in there).. but I am not going to deny that there might be something in the idea of selling some extra.. but still kind of considering why it would even be necessary to deviate very much with something that is already pretty solid and working pretty well....
I suppose if we get to new ATHs then at that point we may well get into the $80ks - presuming a kind of free-flow through no man's zone, then the supra $150k prices might start to become relevant in terms of being within "reachable."
Edited: Clarified some of my points in each of the last two above responses, fleshed out a few ideas and fixed some of the typos
Poll
