Short squeeze in the making or the beginning of hugely depressing spring/summer?
(wondering for a friend ofc)
Edited to add: Had to sell a tiny bit to pay insurances, so it could resume uppity now any moment.
The needing to sell a bit for some "extra" expenses seems like it should have been in the upper $40s, not in the upper $30s..
#justsaying
Thanks for pointing that out, it already began to dawn upon me but now I know for sure..
Then again, when the invoices start to change colors so to speak you can't wait any longer for the squiggly lines to please ones desires and wishes.
Though seriously, in the past it worked more often than not to wait as long as possible to sell for basic needs (a mandatory insurance is not exactly an "extra" expense in my book).
And I'd like to quote Jimbo here in my defense (IIRC, apologies if I'm attributing this wrongly to him) : "Buy if you can and sell if you have to" and it was clearly a "have to" moment.
Remembering for what I buyed the sats I sold yesterday I'd like to quote the lil doggie too: "This is fine".
Let's say for example if we have an average cost of $1k per BTC or maybe even way less, as Jimbo proclaims to have something like 2 digits on his average cost, but anyhow, for the ease of illustration and maybe even to help guys to relate a bit, then maybe if you are currently around 40x in profits and in the whole scheme of things, it does not make very much difference if you ended up selling some of those coins in 39x profits or if you could have had gotten 49x in profits.
It's cool how you put things into perspective with your example. Someone would have still made a sizable profit even if they had sold at 39x profits rather than the desired 49x. It's critical to remember that timing the market precisely is impossible and that hindsight is 20/20. Furthermore, profits—regardless of whether they are 39x or 49x—are always positive.
Another thing to make matters even more clear is that many of us long term Bitcoiners will maybe complain a bit because we are selling 0.5% of or stash or maybe sometimes 1-2% at most for some expenses that we thought that we could put off, but were not able to put off. So we are usually not even tending to talk about selling large amounts of our BTC holdings but still we are kind of complaining about it.
Maybe I can give one of my own examples. In late 2018 and even into early 2018, I had constructed plans to do some construction over 2018, and so I had pretty much held in reserves around 65% to 75% of the costs of various construction that was taking place in mid-to-late 2018, even some of the construction was going slow, and so I had anticipated those bills to start to come due in February and March of 2019, but instead a large chunk of them came due in November and December 2018, so I felt kind of fucked to be considering having to pay those bills and not really being able to put them off until I thought that they would be due. So I ended up selling around 4% of my BTC stash during some pretty low points of the market, it was not the absolute bottom, but I think that it might have been around $4k-ish.. and between December 2018 and April 2019 I was able to buy back about 1/2 of the amount that I sold..and so there was some regret there in terms of how I planned it and how I carried it out.. but I did not sell at the absolute bottom of that correction (which was $3,124), and probably I was able to get back some more of those BTC over the next ups and downs of the BTC prices, since the BTC prices had gone up to $13,880 and then corrected back down into the $6ks in late 2019 and then we can recall the prices went above $10k but then corrected back down to $3,850, so all of those were played well in my system of accumulating BTC so my BTC stack largely built during that time, but still I can feel that my sale of 4% and my ability to ONLY recover half of that was still some place in which I ended up with less BTC to play with.
Another thing is that if I am the one who is claiming to have had average BTC costs of around $1k per BTC, so there are some regrets to be selling around 4x in profits rather than other opportunities to sell at much higher amounts such as even 10x in profits in order to have had the potential of not having to sell as many and to have been able to have chances to buy back at the times that I was selling or at least to HODL through it rather than to sell at lower than preferred BTC prices.
Well so far the dude was proven wrong and I am still correct.
much ado about nuttin.
In udder wurdz.. seems like a lot of noise.. you have a target price of $33,333 that may or may not get hit, and yeah you have some targets between there, as well, but what is the good to either get emotional about it or to wage upon it happening.. even if the ONLY meaningful thing that you are waging is that you have some buy orders outstanding that may or may not end up getting filled.
When I posted earlier about some of the adjustments that I made to my buy and my sell orders, I forgot to mention that I largely did not change the increments that i had set from late 2020 and early 2021, but I think that our various ups and downs (mostly downs) since 2021 did cause some needs for me to rethink the ways that I had those set.. so largely they are currently with about $1,500 increments until we get to pretty well into no man's land (about $58k when the switch to $2,000 increments until $72k they switch to $3k increments and then $3,500 increments from $100k to $120k and $5k increments up until $150k.
Since some of us had been talking about what to do after $150k (presuming that it could end up happening, and I had not really thought about it very much), but I am thinking that maybe I will increase my sell amounts by 20% to 30% or so in terms of bitcoin and then the increments would be $7,500 until $200k and then probably $10k between $200k and $300k, but still I am not as concrete as setting those supra $150k sell orders, and I am thinking that we would need to get through noman's land first and maybe even get into supra $100k .. but things could end up moving fast if we get to supra $100k, so it might be better to have the sell orders set up if it looks like $100k might get broken.. so yeah, a lot of ifs.. so maybe we are still not close to getting to those kinds of break throughs.. and I might become guilty of counting my chickens before they hatch.. but still giving some thoughts to those kinds matters shouldn't hurt to have a kind of outline of a plan so that it might be easier to put in place.. and maybe I should at least on paper (besides this post) write it out in order that I will know what I had already tentatively decided)... it might make more sense to actually see it on paper, too (referring to digital paper rather than actual physical sheets)...
So then if we get through $150k and then $200k and then $300k, then probably it would be good to figure out $300k to $600k.. we alreadyknow that sometimes in a cycle there can be a doubling and then a doubling and another doubling.. but it might not happen all at once, but if we look back between late 2015 and late 2017, we had 6 doublings over 2 years, but then maybe we had something like 5 doublings over 1 year .. or maybe we had 4 doublings over about 4 months
250 9/2015
500 11/2015 & 5/2016 & 8/2016
1000 12/2016
2000 3/2017
4000 9/2017
8000 10/2017
16000 11/2017
2500 9/2017
5000 10/2017
10000 11/2017
20,000 12/2017
I am not certain that doublings are going to happen in a matter of a few months, even though there is nothing really discounting from the possibility of several doublings being able to happen in a relatively short period of time.. but then what kinds of numbers do we start with in order to measure?
not quite this but something close
$15k
$30k
$60k
$120k
$240k
$480k
or do you prefer to contemplate something like
$20k
$40k
$80k
$160k
$320k
$640k
Any of those are possible, but we still might not know the timeline or if they might be within reasonable contemplations for this cycle. .and do you have plans for such? or might you blow your whole wadd (if any?) prior to $150k?
I can tell you for myself, even if I pick up my sell orders, I still will likely be "under" doing it... and will I have regrets when the ultimate BIG correction comes? I am not sure because I am not sure about if a BIG correction will come and if it will even matter very much to me.
probably enough fantasizing for now.. and I can neither confirm nor deny how great the odds might be for some of the possible upside scenarios nor figure out for anyone else the extent to which they feel that they are ready, willing and/able to prepare for those kinds of situations and not even be disappointed if they don't end up playing out and maybe we don't end up getting much if any above $120k. .and sure could even be worse than that, but I hate to devolve into too many negative Nancisms.. I will let the beartards, the bitcoin naysayers, the shitcoin pumpers, the low coiners and nocoiners and the fence sitters to engage in those even more negative scenario ponderings.
Poll
