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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26838359 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
philipma1957
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January 26, 2024, 01:52:41 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??

yeah why not
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January 26, 2024, 02:03:23 PM


Explanation
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Negotiation
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Reality is that 1 BTC = Billionaire.


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January 26, 2024, 02:04:21 PM

#Bitcoin – A vision of a decentralized future. 🏙️✨ Is this the world we want to live in?


Source.
Rustam Meraj
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January 26, 2024, 02:09:50 PM

So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??
Hope so... Smiley
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January 26, 2024, 02:15:05 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), JimboToronto (1), Hueristic (1), Toxic2040 (1)

#Bitcoin – A vision of a decentralized future. 🏙️✨ Is this the world we want to live in?


Source.


Buildings with an excessive amount of Bitcoin advertising?

You wanna show me an image of a decentralized future? Create a picture of a banker crying under a bridge, with tattered clothes and a hobo-stick.
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January 26, 2024, 03:01:19 PM


Explanation
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Hueristic
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January 26, 2024, 03:07:34 PM
Last edit: January 26, 2024, 03:49:36 PM by Hueristic
Merited by El duderino_ (3), JayJuanGee (1), Paashaas (1)

Quote
George Carlin's estate sues over AI-generated stand-up special titled 'I'm glad I'm dead'


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/george-carlins-estate-sues-ai-generated-stand-special-titled-glad-dead-rcna135808




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kONMe7YnO8


Edit: started off good but got fucking retarded woke.

Good thing its got time stamps or I wouldn't have found the good shit after the woke crap.
JayJuanGee
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January 26, 2024, 03:52:14 PM

$480k
~
or do you prefer to contemplate something like
$320k
Any of those are possible, but we still might not know the timeline or if they might be within reasonable contemplations for this cycle. .and do you have plans for such?  or might you blow your whole wadd (if any?) prior to $150k?
While the $150k cap may end in November 2024 rather than December, it's more likely to be closer to $320k and $480k by 2025.
$640k
Any of those are possible,
I don't think it's likely to happen in the next 2-3 years but if the market changes a lot then that's a different story, otherwise going over $640k is pretty much impossible.

Of course, there is a bit of validity in terms of the underlying substance (and magnanimity) of various numbers, but I would not get too much caught upon the substance of the numbers at least in terms of pumpamentals. yet it is another thing for the pumpamentals to result in sustainability.

In other words, once we get up to some of those prices, another doubling is not as BIG of a deal as it seems to be at current prices.  So at current prices, it might have seemed very difficult for us to get from $20k to $40k in this last round, but when there is momentum, even going within the various doublings can become somewhat effortless.. until at some point there is going to become difficulties to sustain because buy support is not adequately keeping up.. and there could be various reasons that it could become unsustainable along the way, but at the same time continue to double at even higher prices that had been difficult at lower prices.

$20k
$40k
$80k
$160k
$320k
$640k

I am not wedded to any of the ideas, yet I am still trying to suggest that like in the past it may well be good to be prepared in the future.

250 9/2015
500 11/2015 & 5/2016  & 8/2016
1000  12/2016
2000  3/2017
4000  9/2017
8000  10/2017
16000  11/2017

2500  9/2017
5000  10/2017
10000  11/2017
20,000 12/2017

There were a lot of folks who sold at various earlier doubling points in the 2015-2017 price run, and yeah they got a decent amount of profits in terms of dollars, but they still ended up missing out... especially think about selling in the $2ks.. and then missing out on 3 more doublings?  When mistakes like that are made, they sometimes contribute to further mistakes, or just messed up psychology.

Don't get me wrong because I am not even feeling that I personally need any kind of price run, yet there were several of us who did not sell very many coins during the 2015-2017 BTC price run, and if we are largely still hanging onto our coins, we are not in a bad situation, even though some of us might have felt some regret that we could have had gotten more coins by selling some on the way up in that 2015-2017 price run.. especially in the supra $10k prices and had quite a few opportunities to buy more on the way down.. but in the end, we still might have not really suffered that much in terms of still have quite a few of those coins... .. ..

But, yeah, maybe I am assuming too much.  maybe some guys had gotten up to 80 BTC prior to the 2015-2017 BTC price run, and then maybe they sold some of their coins on the way up, made some mistakes here and there and maybe made up for some of their mistakes, and so maybe at some points they had gotten down to ONLY having 40 BTC, so at some points they might have kind of felt that they had reached fuck you status, but never quite got there enough in order to feel comfortable... and right now if they might still have been able to build back up to 45 BTC in the past few years, they might consider themselves to be close to fuck you status.. even if if we are using the 200-week moving average as our value measurement.

But even if we go by my entry-level fuck you status chart, a guy who currently has 45 BTC could still potentially make some additional mistakes along the way, and as long as he still has around 38 BTC by the end of 2025, he would clearly be in default entry-level fuck you status at that time.

So there can be ways to manage your BTC stash, and probably if the BTC price were to perform into the supra $300ks arena or maybe even as low as in the supra $200k arena in 2025, then it will probably end up dragging up the 200-WMA more than my current fuck you status chart predicts.
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January 26, 2024, 04:00:28 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

the morning wall report


looking good

all ahead standard

dyor


4h



D

stronghands
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January 26, 2024, 04:01:15 PM


Explanation
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Ambatman
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January 26, 2024, 04:39:55 PM

Waking up to see an alert Bitcoin has crossed $41.5K is as beautiful as "your food is ready".
JayJuanGee
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January 26, 2024, 04:51:17 PM

I'd like to quote Jimbo here in my defense  (IIRC, apologies if I'm attributing this wrongly to him) : "Buy if you can and sell if you have to" and it was clearly a "have to" moment.
That's what I thought when I saw JJG's response to you. If you've gotta spend, you've gotta spend. It's not an option that can wait.

Indeed I've preached "Buy if you can and sell if you must" for years.

Save if you can, spend only if you absolutely must. Take your profits in Bitcoin.

I am not going to proclaim to know when any of us might transition into such a phase as to it not really mattering too much.. and even mattering less if our average cost per BTC is in the double digits.. so the higher or cost per BTC, the more strategic we might want to be in terms of our sales, even if someone with $1k, $2k or $3k average cost per BTC would still be in 39x, 20x and 13x profits respectively, if we are using $39k as a possible sell point.

Personally, I still believe that there could be some value in attempting to be strategic about your sales too..  even if there might be some times in which you might be caught off guard in terms of managing your own cashflows.

In those kinds of cases that you have plenty of profits, you still can manage your BTC spending based on your cashflows.. so maybe we just assume that you are in profits and we assume that you are decently over fuck you status, so then maybe we would create a spending budget for our current holdings of 88 coins, and if our withdrawal rate is 4%, then we would still end up with right around 0.3 BTC per month of spending, which is currently right around $12k per month

I personally have been claiming that a 6-10% withdrawal rate is likely to be sustainable as long as we are measuring our entry-level fuck you status from the 200-week moving average rather than from spot price, so with an 8% withdrawal rate we are close to 0.6 BTC per month and around $24k per month in current cash value...and yeah, maybe that means that many of us could even have a much smaller stash and still have enough income from that... but we still likely need to figure out our own right balance so that we do not overly deplete our own stash or maybe pull the fuck you lever too early.

I guess it's back to DCA, no big dip anymore🤧😭, Grayscale pls dump 2 billion GBTC if possible 😅😅

NOW WE WOULD BE SCREAMING 😱 TO THE MOON, FOR THOSE THAT BOUGHT THE DIP.

At times I wonder whats the dip, when my friend is just Starting withe the last dip of 35k and I bought even lower for 25k and I SCREAMING dip, what's the dip? 😅😅

Anything right under 40k is a dip for for me right now.

Maybe anything under $69k should be considered a dip?  Especially if someone is trying to build a stash and is in the relatively early stages of such.. meaning that if he has ONLY been accumulating less than a full cycle and if he did not come into the space with already BIG investment portfolio in which he could afford to lump sum allocate into bitcoin at earlier stages.

For example, there is a difference between a guy who stared out at $100 per week in the last 4 years and has accumulated right around 1BTC (with $20k invested), and maybe the guy who started out with $200k investment portfolio who might have invested $22k into bitcoin within the first year of investment ($400 per week) and then maybe invested another $23 k in the next 3 years (at $150 per week), so maybe he might have $45k invested in total ($22k first year and $23k next 3 years), but he also might have accumulated close to 3 BTC rather than just 1 BTC even though the main thing differentiating him from the newbie investor is that he is able to start out with stronger DCA approach (that might be considered a kind of front-loading of his investment) and maybe to be a bit more aggressive because he already has spent time building up his investment portfolio prior to getting into BTC.

#Bitcoin – A vision of a decentralized future. 🏙️✨ Is this the world we want to live in?

Source.

No.
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January 26, 2024, 05:01:16 PM


Explanation
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January 26, 2024, 05:15:55 PM

Looks like the rubber might be hitting the road a little bit for the first time since the ETFs dropped. A nice little 5% pop this morning to stop the bleeding. Congrats to those who scooped up a little more BTC below $40K. I think we may not have seen the last of sub-40K pricing, but I feel like it’s a decent risk reward or entry point for ETF buys.
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January 26, 2024, 05:37:39 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I think that even though there could be some overlap, the topic of whales is a bit of a different topic, even though someone who is really able to buy and hold in the real early days  (such as in early 2013 or prior to 2013, or even prior to 2012 could have really become a whale with a fairly modest investment level of perhaps less than $10k investment in the real early days, but surely depends on what we might call a whale..   Do we need more than 1,000 BTC or would 500BTC be enough?  I know that these numbers are changing, but even by 2013, there would have needed to have been maybe a bit more than $10k invested to get more than 10k coins.. perhaps in the ballpark of $13-$15k.  . and sure maybe we could say more than 1,000 coins is a whale, but I am not sure about 500-1,000 coins.. perhaps currently bordering upon whale status.. but not quite there yet.

It could well be that in 10-15 years, then having more than 100 BTC might start to be getting to whale status.. so maybe it partly depends upon when you do the assessment of whale status and it seems to be a bit of a moving target, even though there are ways to attempt to get some kinds of bearing upon making such "whale status" assessments.

Today it costs around 40 million $ to buy 1000 BTC while back in 2015 when price of Bitcoin was around 200$ there wont be much investment needed to buy 1000 BTC. The real point is today there is majority running after Bitcoin because of its success but back in 2013 or before that there are not many who are giving importance to Bitcoin.
I cam to know about Bitcoin first in 2017, it took me 2 years to do first transaction in Bitcoin and further 2 more years to understand that there is immense benefit in HODLING the Bitcoin. You might be one of whales as you full fill both criteria 1) you bought BTC when it was in its early days 2) You are still a HODLER    

Of course, folks who are newer to BTC and who are likely either in their accumulation stage or in their early accumulation stage, should be pleased to accumulate during dips, accumulate when the BTC price fails to go up or seems to be static, and it can take a long time to accumulate enough BTC, and maybe you have to spend 10 years or more accumulating before you really start to feel comfortable that you have enough.

I have already made the claim several times in recent times that anyone investing $100 per week for the next 10 years is likely not going to be able to accumulate a whole BTC and maybe not even half of a BTC, but at least there are greater chances of accumulating half of a BTC than a whole BTC, but if you had already gotten started, and maybe you are no spring chicken anymore WatChe. .and congratulations, you are coming up upon your having been registered on the forum for a whole bitcoin cycle.. and if you have been investing into bitcoin for that whole time, then that would have had been helpful too.

Just think about it, a $100 per week invested into bitcoin over the last 4 years would have had resulted in more than 1 BTC (at 1.0505), but if you had been wanting to double the quantity of your BTC holdings in a similar amount of time, you may well need to increase your investment rate by 4x to 6x or maybe even more.

It's not only that you know Bitcoin but also the realization that its not just buy on dips and sell when price goes up. If I talk about myself then it took my sometime to understand that act.
If you can increase your investment to extent that can give you 1 Bitcoin in the long run then its good but if you don't have that much money then invest as much as you can. It will also give you good result over your investment.
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January 26, 2024, 06:03:26 PM


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philipma1957
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January 26, 2024, 06:15:32 PM

42k next?

maybe by tonight.
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January 26, 2024, 07:03:23 PM


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philipma1957
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January 26, 2024, 07:05:50 PM

lets try this
43k
maybe by tonight
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January 26, 2024, 07:43:10 PM

lets try this
43k
maybe by tonight

Seems doable, 42k at block 827520


You may be optimistic when you say midnight, but it doesn't seem unattainable. In any case, I hope you'll be right. Grin
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