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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 3 (3.8%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (1.3%)
$80K to $85K - 2 (2.5%)
$85K to $90K - 9 (11.4%)
$90K to $95K - 12 (15.2%)
$95K to $100K - 12 (15.2%)
>$100K - 40 (50.6%)
Total Voters: 79

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26497682 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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January 26, 2024, 03:52:14 PM

$480k
~
or do you prefer to contemplate something like
$320k
Any of those are possible, but we still might not know the timeline or if they might be within reasonable contemplations for this cycle. .and do you have plans for such?  or might you blow your whole wadd (if any?) prior to $150k?
While the $150k cap may end in November 2024 rather than December, it's more likely to be closer to $320k and $480k by 2025.
$640k
Any of those are possible,
I don't think it's likely to happen in the next 2-3 years but if the market changes a lot then that's a different story, otherwise going over $640k is pretty much impossible.

Of course, there is a bit of validity in terms of the underlying substance (and magnanimity) of various numbers, but I would not get too much caught upon the substance of the numbers at least in terms of pumpamentals. yet it is another thing for the pumpamentals to result in sustainability.

In other words, once we get up to some of those prices, another doubling is not as BIG of a deal as it seems to be at current prices.  So at current prices, it might have seemed very difficult for us to get from $20k to $40k in this last round, but when there is momentum, even going within the various doublings can become somewhat effortless.. until at some point there is going to become difficulties to sustain because buy support is not adequately keeping up.. and there could be various reasons that it could become unsustainable along the way, but at the same time continue to double at even higher prices that had been difficult at lower prices.

$20k
$40k
$80k
$160k
$320k
$640k

I am not wedded to any of the ideas, yet I am still trying to suggest that like in the past it may well be good to be prepared in the future.

250 9/2015
500 11/2015 & 5/2016  & 8/2016
1000  12/2016
2000  3/2017
4000  9/2017
8000  10/2017
16000  11/2017

2500  9/2017
5000  10/2017
10000  11/2017
20,000 12/2017

There were a lot of folks who sold at various earlier doubling points in the 2015-2017 price run, and yeah they got a decent amount of profits in terms of dollars, but they still ended up missing out... especially think about selling in the $2ks.. and then missing out on 3 more doublings?  When mistakes like that are made, they sometimes contribute to further mistakes, or just messed up psychology.

Don't get me wrong because I am not even feeling that I personally need any kind of price run, yet there were several of us who did not sell very many coins during the 2015-2017 BTC price run, and if we are largely still hanging onto our coins, we are not in a bad situation, even though some of us might have felt some regret that we could have had gotten more coins by selling some on the way up in that 2015-2017 price run.. especially in the supra $10k prices and had quite a few opportunities to buy more on the way down.. but in the end, we still might have not really suffered that much in terms of still have quite a few of those coins... .. ..

But, yeah, maybe I am assuming too much.  maybe some guys had gotten up to 80 BTC prior to the 2015-2017 BTC price run, and then maybe they sold some of their coins on the way up, made some mistakes here and there and maybe made up for some of their mistakes, and so maybe at some points they had gotten down to ONLY having 40 BTC, so at some points they might have kind of felt that they had reached fuck you status, but never quite got there enough in order to feel comfortable... and right now if they might still have been able to build back up to 45 BTC in the past few years, they might consider themselves to be close to fuck you status.. even if if we are using the 200-week moving average as our value measurement.

But even if we go by my entry-level fuck you status chart, a guy who currently has 45 BTC could still potentially make some additional mistakes along the way, and as long as he still has around 38 BTC by the end of 2025, he would clearly be in default entry-level fuck you status at that time.

So there can be ways to manage your BTC stash, and probably if the BTC price were to perform into the supra $300ks arena or maybe even as low as in the supra $200k arena in 2025, then it will probably end up dragging up the 200-WMA more than my current fuck you status chart predicts.
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January 26, 2024, 04:00:28 PM
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the morning wall report


looking good

all ahead standard

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January 26, 2024, 04:39:55 PM

Waking up to see an alert Bitcoin has crossed $41.5K is as beautiful as "your food is ready".
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January 26, 2024, 04:51:17 PM

I'd like to quote Jimbo here in my defense  (IIRC, apologies if I'm attributing this wrongly to him) : "Buy if you can and sell if you have to" and it was clearly a "have to" moment.
That's what I thought when I saw JJG's response to you. If you've gotta spend, you've gotta spend. It's not an option that can wait.

Indeed I've preached "Buy if you can and sell if you must" for years.

Save if you can, spend only if you absolutely must. Take your profits in Bitcoin.

I am not going to proclaim to know when any of us might transition into such a phase as to it not really mattering too much.. and even mattering less if our average cost per BTC is in the double digits.. so the higher or cost per BTC, the more strategic we might want to be in terms of our sales, even if someone with $1k, $2k or $3k average cost per BTC would still be in 39x, 20x and 13x profits respectively, if we are using $39k as a possible sell point.

Personally, I still believe that there could be some value in attempting to be strategic about your sales too..  even if there might be some times in which you might be caught off guard in terms of managing your own cashflows.

In those kinds of cases that you have plenty of profits, you still can manage your BTC spending based on your cashflows.. so maybe we just assume that you are in profits and we assume that you are decently over fuck you status, so then maybe we would create a spending budget for our current holdings of 88 coins, and if our withdrawal rate is 4%, then we would still end up with right around 0.3 BTC per month of spending, which is currently right around $12k per month

I personally have been claiming that a 6-10% withdrawal rate is likely to be sustainable as long as we are measuring our entry-level fuck you status from the 200-week moving average rather than from spot price, so with an 8% withdrawal rate we are close to 0.6 BTC per month and around $24k per month in current cash value...and yeah, maybe that means that many of us could even have a much smaller stash and still have enough income from that... but we still likely need to figure out our own right balance so that we do not overly deplete our own stash or maybe pull the fuck you lever too early.

I guess it's back to DCA, no big dip anymore🤧😭, Grayscale pls dump 2 billion GBTC if possible 😅😅

NOW WE WOULD BE SCREAMING 😱 TO THE MOON, FOR THOSE THAT BOUGHT THE DIP.

At times I wonder whats the dip, when my friend is just Starting withe the last dip of 35k and I bought even lower for 25k and I SCREAMING dip, what's the dip? 😅😅

Anything right under 40k is a dip for for me right now.

Maybe anything under $69k should be considered a dip?  Especially if someone is trying to build a stash and is in the relatively early stages of such.. meaning that if he has ONLY been accumulating less than a full cycle and if he did not come into the space with already BIG investment portfolio in which he could afford to lump sum allocate into bitcoin at earlier stages.

For example, there is a difference between a guy who stared out at $100 per week in the last 4 years and has accumulated right around 1BTC (with $20k invested), and maybe the guy who started out with $200k investment portfolio who might have invested $22k into bitcoin within the first year of investment ($400 per week) and then maybe invested another $23 k in the next 3 years (at $150 per week), so maybe he might have $45k invested in total ($22k first year and $23k next 3 years), but he also might have accumulated close to 3 BTC rather than just 1 BTC even though the main thing differentiating him from the newbie investor is that he is able to start out with stronger DCA approach (that might be considered a kind of front-loading of his investment) and maybe to be a bit more aggressive because he already has spent time building up his investment portfolio prior to getting into BTC.

#Bitcoin – A vision of a decentralized future. 🏙️✨ Is this the world we want to live in?

Source.

No.
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January 26, 2024, 05:15:55 PM

Looks like the rubber might be hitting the road a little bit for the first time since the ETFs dropped. A nice little 5% pop this morning to stop the bleeding. Congrats to those who scooped up a little more BTC below $40K. I think we may not have seen the last of sub-40K pricing, but I feel like it’s a decent risk reward or entry point for ETF buys.
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January 26, 2024, 05:37:39 PM
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I think that even though there could be some overlap, the topic of whales is a bit of a different topic, even though someone who is really able to buy and hold in the real early days  (such as in early 2013 or prior to 2013, or even prior to 2012 could have really become a whale with a fairly modest investment level of perhaps less than $10k investment in the real early days, but surely depends on what we might call a whale..   Do we need more than 1,000 BTC or would 500BTC be enough?  I know that these numbers are changing, but even by 2013, there would have needed to have been maybe a bit more than $10k invested to get more than 10k coins.. perhaps in the ballpark of $13-$15k.  . and sure maybe we could say more than 1,000 coins is a whale, but I am not sure about 500-1,000 coins.. perhaps currently bordering upon whale status.. but not quite there yet.

It could well be that in 10-15 years, then having more than 100 BTC might start to be getting to whale status.. so maybe it partly depends upon when you do the assessment of whale status and it seems to be a bit of a moving target, even though there are ways to attempt to get some kinds of bearing upon making such "whale status" assessments.

Today it costs around 40 million $ to buy 1000 BTC while back in 2015 when price of Bitcoin was around 200$ there wont be much investment needed to buy 1000 BTC. The real point is today there is majority running after Bitcoin because of its success but back in 2013 or before that there are not many who are giving importance to Bitcoin.
I cam to know about Bitcoin first in 2017, it took me 2 years to do first transaction in Bitcoin and further 2 more years to understand that there is immense benefit in HODLING the Bitcoin. You might be one of whales as you full fill both criteria 1) you bought BTC when it was in its early days 2) You are still a HODLER    

Of course, folks who are newer to BTC and who are likely either in their accumulation stage or in their early accumulation stage, should be pleased to accumulate during dips, accumulate when the BTC price fails to go up or seems to be static, and it can take a long time to accumulate enough BTC, and maybe you have to spend 10 years or more accumulating before you really start to feel comfortable that you have enough.

I have already made the claim several times in recent times that anyone investing $100 per week for the next 10 years is likely not going to be able to accumulate a whole BTC and maybe not even half of a BTC, but at least there are greater chances of accumulating half of a BTC than a whole BTC, but if you had already gotten started, and maybe you are no spring chicken anymore WatChe. .and congratulations, you are coming up upon your having been registered on the forum for a whole bitcoin cycle.. and if you have been investing into bitcoin for that whole time, then that would have had been helpful too.

Just think about it, a $100 per week invested into bitcoin over the last 4 years would have had resulted in more than 1 BTC (at 1.0505), but if you had been wanting to double the quantity of your BTC holdings in a similar amount of time, you may well need to increase your investment rate by 4x to 6x or maybe even more.

It's not only that you know Bitcoin but also the realization that its not just buy on dips and sell when price goes up. If I talk about myself then it took my sometime to understand that act.
If you can increase your investment to extent that can give you 1 Bitcoin in the long run then its good but if you don't have that much money then invest as much as you can. It will also give you good result over your investment.
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January 26, 2024, 06:15:32 PM

42k next?

maybe by tonight.
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January 26, 2024, 07:05:50 PM

lets try this
43k
maybe by tonight
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January 26, 2024, 07:43:10 PM

lets try this
43k
maybe by tonight

Seems doable, 42k at block 827520


You may be optimistic when you say midnight, but it doesn't seem unattainable. In any case, I hope you'll be right. Grin
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January 26, 2024, 08:19:21 PM

lets try this
43k
maybe by tonight
Lol the next thing would be "$50K maybe before month end".
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January 26, 2024, 08:30:42 PM

lets try this
43k
maybe by tonight
Lol the next thing would be "$50K maybe before month end".

baby steps batman baby steps
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January 26, 2024, 08:34:32 PM
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I think that even though there could be some overlap, the topic of whales is a bit of a different topic, even though someone who is really able to buy and hold in the real early days  (such as in early 2013 or prior to 2013, or even prior to 2012 could have really become a whale with a fairly modest investment level of perhaps less than $10k investment in the real early days, but surely depends on what we might call a whale..   Do we need more than 1,000 BTC or would 500BTC be enough?  I know that these numbers are changing, but even by 2013, there would have needed to have been maybe a bit more than $10k invested to get more than 10k coins.. perhaps in the ballpark of $13-$15k.  . and sure maybe we could say more than 1,000 coins is a whale, but I am not sure about 500-1,000 coins.. perhaps currently bordering upon whale status.. but not quite there yet.

It could well be that in 10-15 years, then having more than 100 BTC might start to be getting to whale status.. so maybe it partly depends upon when you do the assessment of whale status and it seems to be a bit of a moving target, even though there are ways to attempt to get some kinds of bearing upon making such "whale status" assessments.
Today it costs around 40 million $ to buy 1000 BTC while back in 2015 when price of Bitcoin was around 200$ there wont be much investment needed to buy 1000 BTC. The real point is today there is majority running after Bitcoin because of its success but back in 2013 or before that there are not many who are giving importance to Bitcoin.
I cam to know about Bitcoin first in 2017, it took me 2 years to do first transaction in Bitcoin and further 2 more years to understand that there is immense benefit in HODLING the Bitcoin. You might be one of whales as you fullfil both criteria 1) you bought BTC when it was in its early days 2) You are still a HODLER    

1) we are still early days today, but surely more and more institutions and rich people are starting to figure it out and a lot of the institutions and rich people are mostly getting into BTC because they likely want to front run a) other institutions and rich people and a) poor people (retail).  

Sure some of the institutions and rich folks might understand bitcoin, but not likely in any kind of meaningful way in terms of making sure that they take some into self-custody... and I don't completely have anything against merely getting price exposure or holding bitcoin in tax advantaged accounts, and so maybe some of those kinds of investment vehicles will deflect some of those folks from really understanding what bitcoin is, which would also be a greater advantage for those of us who likely have more appreciation for the power of self-custody, self-sovereignty and keeping some of our value outside of the less self-sovereign channels.

2) regarding my own purported whale status, there can be difficulties making too many assumptions about some of us, even if we are proclaiming to disclosing some specific information, and at the same time, I like to make sure to suggest that I may well be making up a lot of my own situation... but at the same time, I do have some variations of stories and I also have some consistent forum presence that has mostly gravitated around the accumulation and the HODLing of coins.

But even given all of that, you cannot completely presume whale status including holding 1,000 coins or more, but then I had also discussed that whale status is coming down too, so there could be differences between current whale status or some possible ambitions to reach whale status at some time in the future.. and I personally have never claimed to want to reach whale status, and I probably had not even thought very much about how many BTC it takes to be at whale status in terms of my own chart projecting entry level fuck you status into the future...

I know previously (I am pretty sure it was before 2020) some of us had talked about filthy rich status, and I think that my own number had been $40 million, but then since 2020, I would probably feel that I would need to at least double that and perhaps even go a bit more in terms of labelling what might be filthy rich status, and so maybe I am considering filthy rich status and whale status to be similar kinds of things.. even though surely these definitions in terms of the wealth of a broad class of bitcoiners has considerably change through the years, too... meaning the amount of BTC it takes to reach some of these kinds of thresholds have dropped in exponential kinds of ways.
 
Of course one thing is accumulating, holding and even having good intentions in regards to both of those things, but neither one of them are easy, even if any of us might have the right kinds of good intentions. People have expenses and also people have a certain budget that can be quite difficult to ongoingly maintain.. and another thing is that people have some of their own technological limitations and other mistakes that I have even proclaimed to having had gone through some pretty decent-sized mistakes, and all of these kinds of things can either reduce the quantity of coins that are accumulated or cause the quantity of coins to shrink.

At least I don't have some of the bad habits of getting involved in shitcoins or trading, even though some people seem to think that what I do is a form of trading, which I deny it, but just the fact that any of us is keeping some of our coins on exchange can have some of its other problems.

By the way the exchange matters reminds me to hate to even say how I was rescued from a few of my mistakes, but I had some quirks that were kinds of dumb luck in terms of how and/or where I held some coins, and I had also some mistakes in which I engaged in transactions to buy/sell BTC person to person, and so I sent the BTC after receiving the cash, or I would give the cash after getting at least 1 confirmation that the BTC transaction had gone through.  And I had a couple of mistakes in regards to those kinds of transactions that show some people to be less honest than others, and I also had some honest folks come through too, when I accidentally sent my BTC transaction two times... but did not realize it until the next day.  I guess I am lucky too that I had never (so far) gotten physically robbed when engaging in person to person transactions with strangers... which did happen to some folks even though maybe it was not always for significant amounts of money.

The point that you make about my still being a HODLer is not a very strong one.  Sure there are some guys who had either rugged themselves or they sold too many coins too soon and then became way too disgruntled about BTC, and I suppose that my not playing with my stash in those kinds of BIG ways could be part of the explanation of my sticking around and trying to maintain some semblance of consistency through the years..

For example, a guy could lose large amount of his stash and even learn from those kinds of experiences in such a way that he can still lecture other guys about being too whimpy in their approach to BTC or to suggest default entry-level fuck you status levels that don't even apply to their own situation.  There are some folks who are quite frugal and may well be able to get by quite well on a entry-level fuck you status that is 1/10th the size of the default entry-level fuck you status.

So $2 million as the default entry-level fuck you status is a kind of western middle class standard of living for someone who is not really extravagant (and not living in a real high cost of living area, such as Manhattan).  So $2 million produces $6,666 per month, but $200k would still produce $666 per month, and that is nothing to sneeze at, especially if it is understood to be pretty damned close to passive income, absent the mere management of it.  So even though I frequently talk about $2 million as the default, that still does not mean that my own personal one would necessarily need to be greater than $200k... especially also when I am really only conceding to having more than 0.63 BTC, and that can end up being a not fixed amount too.. because even with what seems to be a fairly modest stash size, mistakes can still be made.. and having to go back down towards aiming for 0.21 BTC would not necessarily be unheard of and it may well be a decent size stash for a lot of folks, especially if we consider future appreciation and maybe even working towards ongoingly building it, too.

Of course, folks who are newer to BTC and who are likely either in their accumulation stage or in their early accumulation stage, should be pleased to accumulate during dips, accumulate when the BTC price fails to go up or seems to be static, and it can take a long time to accumulate enough BTC, and maybe you have to spend 10 years or more accumulating before you really start to feel comfortable that you have enough.

I have already made the claim several times in recent times that anyone investing $100 per week for the next 10 years is likely not going to be able to accumulate a whole BTC and maybe not even half of a BTC, but at least there are greater chances of accumulating half of a BTC than a whole BTC, but if you had already gotten started, and maybe you are no spring chicken anymore WatChe. .and congratulations, you are coming up upon your having been registered on the forum for a whole bitcoin cycle.. and if you have been investing into bitcoin for that whole time, then that would have had been helpful too.

Just think about it, a $100 per week invested into bitcoin over the last 4 years would have had resulted in more than 1 BTC (at 1.0505), but if you had been wanting to double the quantity of your BTC holdings in a similar amount of time, you may well need to increase your investment rate by 4x to 6x or maybe even more.
It's not only that you know Bitcoin but also the realization that its not just buy on dips and sell when price goes up. If I talk about myself then it took my sometime to understand that act.
If you can increase your investment to extent that can give you 1 Bitcoin in the long run then its good but if you don't have that much money then invest as much as you can. It will also give you good result over your investment.

Hey, I am not trying to be a prude in regards to any of these kinds of quantities to invest into BTC topics, even though I frequently like to gravitate towards the $100 per week example, because prior to March 2020, I would frequently use $10 per week in order to proclaim that guys gotta get the fuck off of zero, and $10 per week seemed doable and it made more sense than the $1 per day example.. because I surely prefer the idea of trying to accumulate on a weekly basis rather than a daily basis, even though guys can do whatever they like and whatever might be practical to their own circumstances.  Yet, many of us realize that after March 2020, maybe it started to seem that there may well be some needs to go up to $100 per week to even come close to some kind of appreciable level of accumulation that was even close to comparable to the kinds of results that the $10 per week guy would have gotten in the then years gone by.

I am also not trying to poo poo the guys who struggle to even get to $10 per week and sometimes are ONLY able to do $10 per month, yet it still is going to be quite difficult to make any kind of meaningful difference in life with those kinds of small levels.. yet at the same time there is a recognition that something is better than nothing and even $10 per week or $10 per month can add up if that is all that a guy is able to do.

Maybe that might be part of the reason that I also suggest that guys try to be as aggressive as they are able to be in their BTC accumulation without overdoing it. in terms of their own abilities to make sure that they are able to hang onto any coins that they accumulate... so each guy has to figure out some kind of assessment of his own financial cushions in order that he never has to sell any BTC except at a time that is of his own creation.

Oh and by the way, your own assertion that you are likely still in your earliest years of BTC accumulation likely signifies that you should not be considering selling on the way up, even though buying on the way down can be a good practice, buy still whether you even need to buy on the way down depends upon where you are at in your own bitcoin accumulation journey.. because sometimes just buying no matter what is the even better practice.  I think selling on the way up would ONLY apply when you have started to reach a lot of BTC and it still might not make sense to sell on the way up if your idea is BTC accumulation, because selling to accumulate more is contradictory behavior and sometimes might put you in a bit of a pickle instead of just buy ongoingly in order to accumulate.  Once you reach a bit of a later stage sell king might start to make sense.. but you would have to assess your own situation to figure when it might start to make sense to sell, even if you are still to consider yourself to be accumulating.
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January 26, 2024, 09:49:47 PM

So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??

I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024).

0.1 BTC is the offer.
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