Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??

I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024).
0.1 BTC is the offer.

Don't consider me interfering with your bet because if anyone here were to have such confidence to take such a bet that is likely 50/50 even in the best case scenarios.. and probably more likely in your favor..maybe even 60/40 in your favor (especially since we ONLY passed above $40k right around 14 hours ago), then surely such person is having a lot of confidence for likely unsupported, guessing and gambling reasons.. .

Another point is that I personally see no reason to be making those kinds of BIG bets of 0.1BTC if there is some kind of desire to really try to take these price prediction matters seriously.  There is probably no reason to bet more than 0.001 BTC.. unless you have been battling around these ideas for a while some guy and you have some kind of beef or point to make, but yeah, maybe some guys want to show their balls and their conviction, but it seems a bit unnecessary to me, at least this early in the bet negotiations.. which apparently you do want to show some level of conviction (and maybe you are getting emotional about it), but with a bet that already seems to be in your favor.. not completely but from my perspective, you are not really saying much of anything too controversial.. even though surely there could be some guys in these here parts who are going to want to take the other side of a bet that seems to be in your favor or maybe willing to take such a bet for mere funzies .. which sure maybe some guys might be willing to have your proposed amount of BTC at stake.. whether an escrow is needed or not might be another story.

Now earlier you were making some BIGGER claims about being able to buy in the lower $30ks, and since you were making those statements when the BTC price was around $46k, the price has moved in your favor and we have so far gotten around a 21% correction, and so maybe you have not yet bought back in? 

If you have not bought back in, then you must at least be wanting to suggest that you are still waiting for lower than our current local low of $38.5k-ish.  If you want to bet something about that local low, then you may well get some more takers, even though probably even the sub $38.5k might ONLY have around 50/50 odds.. but maybe you have more confidence than some other guys.. but it might be a more fair bet.. . an so far you have been directionally correct in terms of a pretty good size correction that we have gotten so far, but still have you reached your goals and have you already locked in some profits?  your squigglies might be telling you to wait and you are getting a bit anxious, no?

By the way, I am personally not even very interested in a bet that might be closer to 50/50 around $38.5k is going to break, and gosh, I am not sure if breaking to the downside of the don't wake me up zone would be much more than 50/50, either.. so I am probably not going to be betting any of the numbers.. except maybe if someone might want to suggest that we will break below the 200-week moving average within the next few months prior to the halvening, I  might be willing to take something like that.. and gosh if we were to push such terms oout for the whole of 2024, I might get a bit more skittish, even though I think that the odds are slightly favorable to not breaking below the 200-week moving average anytime in2024... I am not 100% confident but I would be willing to take it as a kind of gentleman's bet of around 50/50.. and perhaps even betting in the ballpark of 0.001 BTC.  I probably would not go higher than that, absent if there might be odds or something in there or some other kinds of funzies to make going higher worth it.

So are you ready to close your short yet?  or maybe if you had not shorted are you ready to get back into the long that you closed in the $48k arena?  #asking for a friend.

I am surely not going to deny that our current $42k-ish bounce could have been a dead cat... but some further UPpity for the weekend is feeling pretty good as a potential right now, even though like I said it could be a fake, so I am not going to get my hopes up too much, especially since I don't make those kinds of bets that would be trying to play waves or squigglies..

In my own situation, there has been quite a bit of action already in the past few months.. pretty much selling all the way up from $27k-ish to $49k-ish and maybe just a few times buying back, until finally this latest time around where we finally got a correction greater than 11%.  So this time around I already had a few buy orders fill between $38.5k and $45k-ish., and then I had a couple of further sales up into the lower $42ks.., Currently, my spreads are around $3k-ish.. and my increments are between $1,250 and $1,500..   Even though sometimes a feel a bit like a bot with no feelings, yet I am afraid of bots (something could go wrong.. not that I could program a bot anyhow), so I set and reset my buy/sell orders manually.

[1714572376]

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[1714572376]

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[1714572376]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Waking up to see an alert Bitcoin has crossed $41.5K is as beautiful as "your food is ready".

haha...not when you are on ozempic..I am not, but someone I know is...  

[Biodom]

So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??

I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024).

0.1 BTC is the offer.

It could easily do so, of course, as 40K has no particular meaning.
42, on the other hand,....the meaning of life  

[JayJuanGee]

So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??

I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024).
0.1 BTC is the offer.

It could easily do so, of course, as 40K has no particular meaning.
42, on the other hand,....the meaning of life  

$35k = meaning


$55k = meaning




$35k ...........................[no meaning zone]........................................$55k






#justsaying

[Ambatman]

So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??

I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024).

0.1 BTC is the offer.

Does it really matter at the end?
It happens
It doesn't
We still seeing 6 digits.
Let's just pass through the bumpy road together
We entering the highway soon.

[Biodom]

So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??

I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024).
0.1 BTC is the offer.

It could easily do so, of course, as 40K has no particular meaning.
42, on the other hand,....the meaning of life  

$35k = meaning


$55k = meaning




$35k ...........................[no meaning zone]........................................$55k






#justsaying

35 vs 55 would make a solid difference to my 'virtual' number (NOT on the blockchain), but I agree as far as the trend is concerned.

[paid2]

-snip-
We entering the highway soon.

IMO at $40k+ and only 12,000 blocks until halving, we already are on the highway lol

What more do we want,  I mean I agree that there's plenty of reason to be bullish, but personally, I'm not biting off more than I can chew, already enough for me tbh

[JayJuanGee]

So??
Never
Under
40
Again
??

I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024).
0.1 BTC is the offer.

It could easily do so, of course, as 40K has no particular meaning.
42, on the other hand,....the meaning of life  

$35k = meaning

$55k = meaning

$35k ...........................[no meaning zone]........................................$55k

#justsaying

35 vs 55 would make a solid difference to my 'virtual' number (NOT on the blockchain), but I agree as far as the trend is concerned.

Of course, it makes a difference to be on the bottom or the top of that range (a 46% difference), but still. .which way are we going to break out..?   to the top or to the bottom?

For me, it seems more likely to break to the upper side, even though it could take several months before such break were to occur, but still it might not .. it could break in a week.. so I am not claiming to know... and even within the range, we could go down to towards the bottom, and how much are we going to be affected in terms of actions that we are taking?   I would imagine that we are mostly in holding, maintaining and perhaps accumulating a bit or maybe even selling some, but not too much.

Are we buying and selling in this range? 

Of course, I am doing both but it is not like I am doing any such buying and selling in large ways or outside of my system because it just seems to be a zone that we are in.. and then even if we break to the upper end of the zone, then we would end up in noman's land (which is $55k to $82k-ish) (or maybe it could be referred to as bat country? or whatever?).. so what the fuck? it is not like we are going to be hanging around in those there parts for very long either, relatively speaking.

-snip-
We entering the highway soon.

IMO at $40k+ and only 12,000 blocks until halving, we already are on the highway lol

What more do we want,  I mean I agree that there's plenty of reason to be bullish, but personally, I'm not biting off more than I can chew, already enough for me tbh

Define "enough"

you have only been registered on the forum since August 2021, so what happened?

Did you do all lot of BTC accumulation in 2022 and 2023, so your bags are largely already filled? 

If you started buying BTC in 2021, then we might be in similar circumstances, although I started buying at the very top of 2013, so it took me a couple of years to start to get comfortable with the stack that I had, even though I largely felt that I had enough within a year of getting in and buying all the way on the way down.. but the down continued... so maybe that is something similar to your entrance into BTC, if we might presume that you started buying BTC at around the time of your forum registration date.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Troytech]

I guess it's back to DCA, no big dip anymore🤧😭, Grayscale pls dump 2 billion GBTC if possible 😅😅

NOW WE WOULD BE SCREAMING 😱 TO THE MOON, FOR THOSE THAT BOUGHT THE DIP.

At times I wonder whats the dip, when my friend is just Starting withe the last dip of 35k and I bought even lower for 25k and I SCREAMING dip, what's the dip? 😅😅

Anything right under 40k is a dip for for me right now.

Maybe anything under $69k should be considered a dip?  Especially if someone is trying to build a stash and is in the relatively early stages of such.. meaning that if he has ONLY been accumulating less than a full cycle and if he did not come into the space with already BIG investment portfolio in which he could afford to lump sum allocate into bitcoin at earlier stages.

For example, there is a difference between a guy who stared out at $100 per week in the last 4 years and has accumulated right around 1BTC (with $20k invested), and maybe the guy who started out with $200k investment portfolio who might have invested $22k into bitcoin within the first year of investment ($400 per week) and then maybe invested another $23 k in the next 3 years (at $150 per week), so maybe he might have $45k invested in total ($22k first year and $23k next 3 years), but he also might have accumulated close to 3 BTC rather than just 1 BTC even though the main thing differentiating him from the newbie investor is that he is able to start out with stronger DCA approach (that might be considered a kind of front-loading of his investment) and maybe to be a bit more aggressive because he already has spent time building up his investment portfolio prior to getting into BTC.

So at the end of the day it's all on the approach and the amount invested In, but a newbie can still get there in two years if he uses his first year to relatively build momentum by building his emergency funds and reserves as he does his DCA. So that the next year he could do a major front loading for his investment, just like a pump.

[rdbase]

This was all planned by the wall street insider!
Always long this guy to be a winner at life!


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1750957003361472852

This also could be the reason for the sudden surge:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5336007.msg63564235#msg63564235
A major tech company stating they have 387 million in BTC
Then again, it could be nothing!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

So at the end of the day it's all on the approach and the amount invested In, but a newbie can still get there in two years if he uses his first year to relatively build momentum by building his emergency funds and reserves as he does his DCA. So that the next year he could do a major front loading for his investment, just like a pump.

I am not going to tell you what to do because I don't really know your situation well enough, and of course, you have to come to your own assessment regarding the possible price range of BTC in 2024 versus 2025 versus 2026 and in terms of your own situation.  Front loading in 2025 does not seem like a good idea, and it challenges the idea of why someone frontloads and when he does it.  And, yeah, you may nor may not be in a position to front load if you don't really have much for either reserves and/or for an emergency fund.

Each of us does what he can, and I know that there were times in my life that even if I had figured out bitcoin, I might not have had hardly any money to invest, and my mindset was not even in the right place... so sometimes it can be difficult to figure out various ways to both be creative but while at the same time not taking too many risks, and when I was in college, I used to invest some of my student loans, but I did it in a way that was very conservative because I felt that I had to make sure that I did not lose money while I was also sometimes maybe even planning for various times that I would have had needed cash.. so I am not sure what I would have had done if I had known bitcoin at that time, maybe I would have taken a pretty conservative approach to it.. but I cannot really say since those were way different times..

I am talking about in the 90s.. .. but we don't alway know what we don't know, and we get ourselves into investing into certain kinds of things that we feel that we know and we are comfortable with them at the time, so it could have had been possible that if my college years would have been in the 2013 time frame, maybe I would have learned about bitcoin, or maybe if my college years were happening right now, maybe I would be thinking much differently right now as compared to then, and part of my point is that I did not have a lot of money to invest when I was in college but I was able to get loans, but the loans were for quite a bit less than what seems to be going on these days.

[paid2]

Define "enough"

you have only been registered on the forum since August 2021, so what happened?

Did you do all lot of BTC accumulation in 2022 and 2023, so your bags are largely already filled? 

If you started buying BTC in 2021, then we might be in similar circumstances, although I started buying at the very top of 2013, so it took me a couple of years to start to get comfortable with the stack that I had, even though I largely felt that I had enough within a year of getting in and buying all the way on the way down.. but the down continued... so maybe that is something similar to your entrance into BTC, if we might presume that you started buying BTC at around the time of your forum registration date.

Indeed you really started your BTC journey with some hardcore challenge! At least you started with DCAing, which is the way to go! I imagine that when you zoom-out the chart, you probably find it funny now right?   Buying at 1k, would be a crazy privilege from a 2024s newcomer point of view!

I think I was lucky from my side, I learned about BTC in late 2017/2018. I made a sort of "all in" with BTC, so a lot of movements and mistakes.. at the beggining I lost some coins trying to trade lol. I sold some of my BTC in 2021 to buy my house (I recently changed my username on the forum thanks to this), most of my stack is from mining. Enough $ per BTC would be around 17-19k for me, so I am fine with the current value. Not selling now because I consider most of my stack as a bonus for the future/old days ; but I could sell some without "psychological difficulty" if needed at 40k (it would be different if BTC fall to 10k tomorrow  ). BTC already helped for the house, my diploma and some good lazying years, so I am not too greedy anymore, more is welcome but not vital

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Define "enough"

you have only been registered on the forum since August 2021, so what happened?

Did you do all lot of BTC accumulation in 2022 and 2023, so your bags are largely already filled? 

If you started buying BTC in 2021, then we might be in similar circumstances, although I started buying at the very top of 2013, so it took me a couple of years to start to get comfortable with the stack that I had, even though I largely felt that I had enough within a year of getting in and buying all the way on the way down.. but the down continued... so maybe that is something similar to your entrance into BTC, if we might presume that you started buying BTC at around the time of your forum registration date.

Indeed you really started your BTC journey with some hardcore challenge! At least you started with DCAing, which is the way to go! I imagine that when you zoom-out the chart, you probably find it funny now right?   Buying at 1k, would be a crazy privilege from a 2024s newcomer point of view!

I think I was lucky from my side, I learned about BTC in late 2017/2018. I made a sort of "all in" with BTC, so a lot of movements and mistakes.. at the beggining I lost some coins trying to trade lol. I sold some of my BTC in 2021 to buy my house (I recently changed my username on the forum thanks to this), most of my stack is from mining. Enough $ per BTC would be around 17-19k for me, so I am fine with the current value. Not selling now because I consider most of my stack as a bonus for the future/old days ; but I could sell some without "psychological difficulty" if needed at 40k (it would be different if BTC fall to 10k tomorrow  ). BTC already helped for the house, my diploma and some good lazying years, so I am not too greedy anymore, more is welcome but not vital

Of course, I cannot judge for you, but it still seems that you have not had a lot of time accumulating because you bought some, sold some and bought some, and in part you seem to be somewhat worried about ongoingly buying BTC is going to raise your average cost per BTC, and I am not really sure if that matters so much in the long run, and to me it seems to be the main question regarding if you believe that you have enough BTC or not.. and you may well have had concluded that you do have enough.

I am thinking that each year since about 2016, I have had some BTC to declare on my taxes, but I am also thinking that if I had been less active I may well not have as many BTC, even though my average cost per BTC is more. 

So maybe you could imagine a more whimpy investor (#1) who might have bought at various scattered times, between 2013 and present and maybe he acquired around 40 BTC for an average cost of $600 per BTC (total invested $24k invested), so he is doing quite well in terms of average cost per BTC. (portfolio valued at $1.7 million)

as compared with a second more aggressive investor (#2) who might have gotten in at the same time, made more mistakes, accumulated 80 BTC, but his average cost per BTC is around $2.4k per BTC... ($192k invested).  It should be obvious that most of us would still rather be the second investor rather than the first one, even though his average cost per BTC is 4x higher than the first. (portfolio valued at $3.4 million)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Define "enough"

you have only been registered on the forum since August 2021, so what happened?

Did you do all lot of BTC accumulation in 2022 and 2023, so your bags are largely already filled?  

If you started buying BTC in 2021, then we might be in similar circumstances, although I started buying at the very top of 2013, so it took me a couple of years to start to get comfortable with the stack that I had, even though I largely felt that I had enough within a year of getting in and buying all the way on the way down.. but the down continued... so maybe that is something similar to your entrance into BTC, if we might presume that you started buying BTC at around the time of your forum registration date.

Indeed you really started your BTC journey with some hardcore challenge! At least you started with DCAing, which is the way to go! I imagine that when you zoom-out the chart, you probably find it funny now right?   Buying at 1k, would be a crazy privilege from a 2024s newcomer point of view!

I think I was lucky from my side, I learned about BTC in late 2017/2018. I made a sort of "all in" with BTC, so a lot of movements and mistakes.. at the beggining I lost some coins trying to trade lol. I sold some of my BTC in 2021 to buy my house (I recently changed my username on the forum thanks to this), most of my stack is from mining. Enough $ per BTC would be around 17-19k for me, so I am fine with the current value. Not selling now because I consider most of my stack as a bonus for the future/old days ; but I could sell some without "psychological difficulty" if needed at 40k (it would be different if BTC fall to 10k tomorrow  ). BTC already helped for the house, my diploma and some good lazying years, so I am not too greedy anymore, more is welcome but not vital

Of course, I cannot judge for you, but it still seems that you have not had a lot of time accumulating because you bought some, sold some and bought some, and in part you seem to be somewhat worried about ongoingly buying BTC is going to raise your average cost per BTC, and I am not really sure if that matters so much in the long run, and to me it seems to be the main question regarding if you believe that you have enough BTC or not.. and you may well have had concluded that you do have enough.

I am thinking that each year since about 2016, I have had some BTC to declare on my taxes, but I am also thinking that if I had been less active I may well not have as many BTC, even though my average cost per BTC is more.  

So maybe you could imagine a more whimpy investor (#1) who might have bought at various scattered times, between 2013 and present and maybe he acquired around 40 BTC for an average cost of $600 per BTC (total invested $24k invested), so he is doing quite well in terms of average cost per BTC. (portfolio valued at $1.7 million)

as compared with a second more aggressive investor (#2) who might have gotten in at the same time, made more mistakes, accumulated 80 BTC, but his average cost per BTC is around $2.4k per BTC... ($192k invested).  It should be obvious that most of us would still rather be the second investor rather than the first one, even though his average cost per BTC is 4x higher than the first. (portfolio valued at $3.4 million)

As a comment:

Yes, wimpy investor #1 has less btc, but he/she also spent $166K less.
Let's assume for a second that the wimpy investor spent all 166K on NVDA on jan 1, 2014 (10 years ago).
That investor would now have (610/3.92)X166K=$25831633 in that investment and can buy 618 additional btc right now (618>>40 extra).
IF the same for AAPL, then 39.55 btc, which is essentially the same; 44.5 extra BTC "equivalent" for MSFT during the same time, beating "aggressive" by 5-10% (depending on how to count-the whole stash or only extra over 40).

What I am getting at: there were many choices (i just gave the three obvious ones) that would have given you the same btc-equivalent for a wimpy, but smart investor #1.
Of course, you needed to have taken a right choice of investment to get there.

Btw, for  a "wimpy investor" who bought a thousand btc at the beginning of 2013 for half of a "wimpy" allocation and never sold any, it would be all academic (sitting pretty on $41.8 mil). I wish i would be smart and "wimpy" like this in Jan 2013, but I wasn't. Everyone deserves the btc price they got...and we all have to live with this maxim.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com