So maybe you could imagine a more whimpy investor (#1) who might have bought at various scattered times, between 2013 and present and maybe he acquired around 40 BTC for an average cost of $600 per BTC (total invested $24k invested), so he is doing quite well in terms of average cost per BTC. (portfolio valued at $1.7 million)
as compared with a second more aggressive investor (#2) who might have gotten in at the same time, made more mistakes, accumulated 80 BTC, but his average cost per BTC is around $2.4k per BTC... ($192k invested). It should be obvious that most of us would still rather be the second investor rather than the first one, even though his average cost per BTC is 4x higher than the first. (portfolio valued at $3.4 million)
As a comment:
Yes, wimpy investor #1 has less btc, but he/she also spent $166K less.
Let's assume for a second that the wimpy investor spent all 166K on NVDA on jan 1, 2014 (10 years ago).
That investor would now have (610/3.92)X166K=$25831633 in that investment and can buy 618 additional btc right now (618>>40 extra).
IF the same for AAPL, then 39.55 btc, which is essentially the same; 44.5 extra BTC "equivalent" for MSFT during the same time, beating "aggressive" by 5-10% (depending on how to count-the whole stash or only extra over 40).
What I am getting at: there were many choices (i just gave the three obvious ones) that would have given you the same btc-equivalent for a wimpy, but smart investor #1.
Of course, you needed to have taken a right choice of investment to get there.
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You seem to be getting away from the hypothetical because there are all kinds of investments that whimpy investor could have had done besides bitcoin, and if you just happen to pick some that out performed bitcoin, then you are not really engaging with the hypothetical.
We are not talking about a bunch of various possible investments in this thread besides talking about the dollar versus bitcoin trade... or maybe we could talk about various averages like average stocks, bonds, properties or commodities, but that also seems like a distraction, because generally bitcoin has outperformed all of those by a long shot, yet if you focus on some specific stock or some specific property, there may well be cases in which BTC did not outperform the comparative, as you selectively picked out some possible stocks that an investor in this thread may or may not have had been able to get into, during the whole time that bitocin was available.. whether lump summing, buying on dips or DCA investing.
Btw, for a "wimpy investor" who bought a thousand btc at the beginning of 2013 for half of a "wimpy" allocation and never sold any, it would be all academic (sitting pretty on $41.8 mil). I wish i would be smart and "wimpy" like this in Jan 2013, but I wasn't. Everyone deserves the btc price they got...and we all have to live with this maxim.
I think that we are trying to talk about situations that regular investors (or normies) might have gotten themselves into in 2013/2014 rather than just making up a bunch of after the fact scenarios. One BIG Lump sum would have outperformed various forms of DCA and smaller lump sums that were spread out, especially if the one BIG lump sum is picked at a time in which the BTC price was regularly low, but hardly any of us talk about lump sum because it does not tend to be as practical for many folks, even if a person might have a $1 million portfolio, if he is aiming to get 10% into bitcoin (which would be $100k), he might not want to pull it all out of one of his already existing assets in one go, but he might still be able to be somewhat aggressive and get into his new investment allocation in several chunks that might be take 6 to 12 months to execute...
...but sure there might be some occasions, in which the guy with the relatively decently-sized investment portfolio might be in a situation in which he feels that he has to liquidate one or another asset, so he is in a position to lump sum into some kind of investment(s).. so even though those kinds of situations can happen, they are not usual, especially for normies... and I would presume that we would be in a thread that is attempting to appeal to a broader segment of the population rather than more well-to-do folks who are less typical and who may even be more financially sophisticated.
I, personally, am a bit leary of lump sum investment that does not at least attempt to do some preparations for either buying on dips or even some DCA that might be especially applicable if the BTC price had moved against the person.... so let's say for example, the lump summer had held off investing into bitcoin through the whole of late 2013 and through most of 2014, but when the BTC prices started to reach the lower to mid-$400s in late 2014, he could not resist anymore, and so he did his lump sum into bitcoin at that time, but then we know what happened in 2015, is that the BTC price dipped down to about $155.. but at the same time it got stuck in the mid-200s for most of 2015, so there may have had been some utility to be able to buy more during late 2014 and through most of 2015, and there can be many examples of such.. so maybe the guy had around $100k that he could invest at $450, which would have gotten him around 222 BTC, but then instead of investing all of it, maybe he invests 1/2 or 3/4s and then saves the other portion for the possibility of buying on dips and/or DCA in the event that the BTC price moved against him. Guys are going to come to differing decisions regarding how to play such matters and how much to hold in reserves versus how much to invest right away.
If you started buying BTC in 2021, then we might be in similar circumstances, although I started buying at the very top of 2013, so it took me a couple of years to start to get comfortable with the stack that I had, even though I largely felt that I had enough within a year of getting in and buying all the way on the way down.. but the down continued... so maybe that is something similar to your entrance into BTC, if we might presume that you started buying BTC at around the time of your forum registration date.
I started in the mid of 2017. We have seen Bitcoin at $4k in Corona days. Still accumulating. Waiting for $100k+. Which we will see soon.
I personally am not looking forward to cashing out large portions of my stash, and I think that part of the point of my earlier response is that if any of us might have started to buy at or near the earlier top and then maybe even bought through the top, then it can take a while to either get into profits or to start to feel that you are not spending so much time in the red.. but then another advantage of holding over a decently long period of time is the power of compounding and the ability to have options.. so the 200-week moving average has moved up plenty in the last 2.5 cycles, and it has even moved up quite bit since mid-2017.. so there should be some confidence, and I would not see any reason to cash out large amounts, even if the BTC price does end up hitting $100k or higher prices this year or next year.
Hopefully you have some kind of plan that goes beyond mere thoughts of withdrawing large portions of your cornz when there likely are not any better places to keep you value... unless you are at or near the end of your life.
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