Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

Against all of your good advice and my bad judgement, I am about to watch Argylle.  I'm going in... wish me luck.  Hope I make it out alive.

 *My wife is a big Henry Cavill fan.

[1714484064]

1714484064

[1714484064]

1714484064

[1714484064]

1714484064

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

Against all of your good advice and my bad judgement, I am about to watch Argylle.  I'm going in... wish me luck.  Hope I make it out alive.

 *My wife is a big Henry Cavill fan.

thank you for your sacrifice

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[strawbs]

Sorry for the long c&p, but thought others might enjoy this. Gotta love his bullishness and I find myself mostly in (hopeful) agreement. This wouldn't just be Gentlemen, this would be Gentlemen on crack.....

You really aren't bullish enough on #Bitcoin. All of your existing models for Bitcoin are based on data that is now completely obsolete. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess. Your favorite chart squigglers and quad four enthusiasts are relying on data from a period of time where a TINY fraction of global capital had access to Bitcoin.

Few people realize that everything has now changed. Historically, Bitcoin has never broken through the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level before the halving. Well, it just blew the doors right off that level.

Market timing geniuses are left sobbing into their rapidly devaluing sacks of fiat, desperately hoping for a pull-back. Let this be a warning. It's the first of many models to be destroyed now that BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. are laying on the bid 24/7. Rumor has it OTC desks have setup makeshift boiler rooms to speed dial whales and beg them for sub-$100K BTC. Meanwhile TRILLIONS in investment capital sits frozen on the sidelines, unable to move for the next 60 days.

Why, you ask?

Registered Investment Advisors have a 90+ day waiting period before they can allocate to new investment products. RIAs are watching Bitcoin run, twitching like greyhounds in the race traps, waiting to secure a position for their clients. We are likely going to see RIA inflows hit at the same time as the halving.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is rocketing even more than Bitcoin. It's up 63% in the past 3 months compared to 46% for BTC. But a MSTR pump is just a delayed Bitcoin pump. Saylor will soon be selling more MSTR shares and buying Bitcoin with the proceeds. But that's not all...

With this performance, there's a chance that MicroStrategy could end up in the S&P500. If that happens, MSTR will receive 10's of billions in passive flows from index investors. Much of which will ultimately flow into spot Bitcoin as Saylor continues his genius strategy.

Bottom line: Even the hardcore Vanguard Bogleheads will soon be stacking #Bitcoin by way of MicroStrategy.

Just one more thing that isn't priced in.

As all of this unfolds, it's important to keep in mind how the Bitcoin price is actually set. It isn't tethered to earnings, new product developments, etc. Its price is only limited by the understanding of the people buying and selling. Some of us understand how scarce it is, and have already priced it at $1 million+ per coin. If the market suddenly shifted their views towards ours, there's nothing holding BTC back from going to $500K+ virtually overnight. What could make that happen?

For now, most people still view BTC as a trade. Not the ultimate asset to accumulate. But as a thought experiment, imagine if a major nation state like Saudi Arabia made it clear that they were stacking Bitcoin with their profits. That they aren't looking to trade in and out, but rather create a multi-generational Bitcoin endowment. Perception would shift drastically overnight. Who would sell their BTC for a mere $100K when they know Saudi Arabia is going to pour in decades worth of oil profits?

The same shift could happen if corporations, major billionaires, etc. started publicly denominating their success in Bitcoin. Jeff Bezos just unloaded $4 Billion in Amazon stock a few months after he was seen partying with Michael Saylor in St. Tropez. Did Saylor orange pill another whale? Who knows. But one thing's for sure: We're on a knife's edge.  Only a few headlines away from a shift in perception that would bring drastically higher price levels.

Plan accordingly

https://x.com/stackhodler/status/1758096264426586118

[Biodom]

Sorry for the long c&p, but thought others might enjoy this. Gotta love his bullishness and I find myself mostly in (hopeful) agreement. This wouldn't just be Gentlemen, this would be Gentlemen on crack.....

You really aren't bullish enough on #Bitcoin. All of your existing models for Bitcoin are based on data that is now completely obsolete. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess. Your favorite chart squigglers and quad four enthusiasts are relying on data from a period of time where a TINY fraction of global capital had access to Bitcoin.

Few people realize that everything has now changed. Historically, Bitcoin has never broken through the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level before the halving. Well, it just blew the doors right off that level.

Market timing geniuses are left sobbing into their rapidly devaluing sacks of fiat, desperately hoping for a pull-back. Let this be a warning. It's the first of many models to be destroyed now that BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. are laying on the bid 24/7. Rumor has it OTC desks have setup makeshift boiler rooms to speed dial whales and beg them for sub-$100K BTC. Meanwhile TRILLIONS in investment capital sits frozen on the sidelines, unable to move for the next 60 days.

Why, you ask?

Registered Investment Advisors have a 90+ day waiting period before they can allocate to new investment products. RIAs are watching Bitcoin run, twitching like greyhounds in the race traps, waiting to secure a position for their clients. We are likely going to see RIA inflows hit at the same time as the halving.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is rocketing even more than Bitcoin. It's up 63% in the past 3 months compared to 46% for BTC. But a MSTR pump is just a delayed Bitcoin pump. Saylor will soon be selling more MSTR shares and buying Bitcoin with the proceeds. But that's not all...

With this performance, there's a chance that MicroStrategy could end up in the S&P500. If that happens, MSTR will receive 10's of billions in passive flows from index investors. Much of which will ultimately flow into spot Bitcoin as Saylor continues his genius strategy.

Bottom line: Even the hardcore Vanguard Bogleheads will soon be stacking #Bitcoin by way of MicroStrategy.

Just one more thing that isn't priced in.

As all of this unfolds, it's important to keep in mind how the Bitcoin price is actually set. It isn't tethered to earnings, new product developments, etc. Its price is only limited by the understanding of the people buying and selling. Some of us understand how scarce it is, and have already priced it at $1 million+ per coin. If the market suddenly shifted their views towards ours, there's nothing holding BTC back from going to $500K+ virtually overnight. What could make that happen?

For now, most people still view BTC as a trade. Not the ultimate asset to accumulate. But as a thought experiment, imagine if a major nation state like Saudi Arabia made it clear that they were stacking Bitcoin with their profits. That they aren't looking to trade in and out, but rather create a multi-generational Bitcoin endowment. Perception would shift drastically overnight. Who would sell their BTC for a mere $100K when they know Saudi Arabia is going to pour in decades worth of oil profits?

The same shift could happen if corporations, major billionaires, etc. started publicly denominating their success in Bitcoin. Jeff Bezos just unloaded $4 Billion in Amazon stock a few months after he was seen partying with Michael Saylor in St. Tropez. Did Saylor orange pill another whale? Who knows. But one thing's for sure: We're on a knife's edge.  Only a few headlines away from a shift in perception that would bring drastically higher price levels.

Plan accordingly

https://x.com/stackhodler/status/1758096264426586118

I agree with almost everything, including the vibe, but Microstrategy in SP500? This is not going to happen for at least 10 years, maybe never.
Why? For the same reason as why GLD is not in SP500. Basically, very small earnings (in MSTR case).
MSTR is almost like a no fee leveraged bitcoin ETF.
Do I wish that I bought it in my retirement account?
Sure...but it ain't a SP500 destined entity, imho.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Toxic2040]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

where is the thread that shows top 100 days for btc can't find it.

[FinePoine0]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Missouri advances bill guarding right to buy, hold, and mine #Bitcoin   
Details

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Nice chart below

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Against all of your good advice and my bad judgement, I am about to watch Argylle.  I'm going in... wish me luck.  Hope I make it out alive.

 *My wife is a big Henry Cavill fan.

 Oh man, that sucked so bad that my wife woke me up telling me she had fallen asleep.

[bitcoinPsycho]

https://news.bitcoin.com/blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-holdings-near-110k-btc/




Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust quickly climbed to the top five in terms of inflows for all ETFs in 2024, achieving this feat within just 17 days of launch. Blackrock CEO Larry Fink recently said that he is now a “big believer” in bitcoin, emphasizing that “it’s bigger than any government.”

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

I think it’s maybe a good idea to set yourself a fiat value in sales and then try to hit that, rather than a certain amount of bitcoin you sell. How much fiat do you need to satisfy your needs for the next four years (from end of 2025) until we get ready to do it all again.

So, you are following a different path from JJG, which is primarily focused on the BTC part of the stash.
Of course, the selling is activated by triggering some fiat-denominated values. But I guess it is a consequence, rather than the trigger.
I tend to believe in the case of USD debasement you could sell too early.

yes, the way BTC (and USD) is built you will always sell too early, when looking at it longterm. There is no way around it

[Gachapin]

Against all of your good advice and my bad judgement, I am about to watch Argylle.  I'm going in... wish me luck.  Hope I make it out alive.

 *My wife is a big Henry Cavill fan.

first I thought you wrote Aguirre, the Wrath of God.... which I can recommend to anyone who hasn't watched that classic yet.  Same goes for "Fitzcarraldo".

Both flicks are by Werner Herzog who is an absolute extremist when it comes to making movies.
The background stories on how these movies were made and on what happened at the sets are probably as interesting as the movies themselves.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com