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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26371051 times)
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March 30, 2024, 12:40:35 AM

ChartBuddy's Daily Wall Observation recap
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March 30, 2024, 01:01:15 AM


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March 30, 2024, 02:34:40 AM

Can someone guide what's the easiest and convenient way to convert btc to usd in USA? My relative is in USA and he has bank account there.
Can someone guide about how to convert btc to usd in this case?
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March 30, 2024, 02:38:25 AM
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Can someone guide what's the easiest and convenient way to convert btc to usd in USA? My relative is in USA and he has bank account there.
Can someone guide about how to convert btc to usd in thus case?

coinbase if you don't mind kyc.

kraken will also want kyc

there are a few people on this website that will buy using PayPal or Zelle some are trustworthy buyers.
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March 30, 2024, 02:41:00 AM

Can someone guide what's the easiest and convenient way to convert btc to usd in USA? My relative is in USA and he has bank account there.
Can someone guide about how to convert btc to usd in thus case?

coinbase if you don't mind kyc.

kraken will also want kyc

there are a few people on this website that will buy using PayPal or Zelle some are trustworthy buyers.


With coinbase can we withdraw directly to bank account ? How long it takes to activate account with kyc
criptoevangelista
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March 30, 2024, 02:45:17 AM

Can someone guide what's the easiest and convenient way to convert btc to usd in USA? My relative is in USA and he has bank account there.
Can someone guide about how to convert btc to usd in thus case?

coinbase if you don't mind kyc.

kraken will also want kyc

there are a few people on this website that will buy using PayPal or Zelle some are trustworthy buyers.


With coinbase can we withdraw directly to bank account ? How long it takes to activate account with kyc

It's very quick, register with the biggest brokers, whichever validates first you make the withdrawal.
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March 30, 2024, 03:01:15 AM


Explanation
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March 30, 2024, 03:59:33 AM

Can someone guide what's the easiest and convenient way to convert btc to usd in USA? My relative is in USA and he has bank account there.
Can someone guide about how to convert btc to usd in thus case?

coinbase if you don't mind kyc.

kraken will also want kyc

there are a few people on this website that will buy using PayPal or Zelle some are trustworthy buyers.


With coinbase can we withdraw directly to bank account ? How long it takes to activate account with kyc

yes you can take money from coinbase to PayPal or to a bank account.

not sure but if it is under 10k it is likely to be pretty quick
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March 30, 2024, 04:01:14 AM


Explanation
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March 30, 2024, 04:03:49 AM

you need front and back photo of your drivers license or your passport.

Also they are FDIC for your cash.

I usually keep a few thousand in cash for business on their site.

Less in coins.
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March 30, 2024, 05:01:14 AM


Explanation
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March 30, 2024, 05:11:05 AM
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March 30, 2024, 05:17:06 AM
Last edit: March 30, 2024, 05:52:58 AM by JayJuanGee
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[...]
Sensing a new ATH in the next 24 hours.

Because...reasons.
Wow.. you ONLY have 20 hours and 10 minutes left, from the time of your prediction..

Hopefully, none of us are trying to hold our breath in anticipation of such BTC prices.
I also hope none of us do, as holding one's breath for too long can cause memory loss (as in "I forgot my passphrase"), in which case the pain would be even more severe if my prediction does come true. Cheesy

Ready the chopper, less than 20 hrs to go...!

Well.  One thing is forgetting your password, and another thing might to be going and telling everyone your password and you various "secrets" because you had gone into a hallucinogenic state.

I don't advocate such.

Regarding the substance of the matter.

I will agree that we can never really know when a pump might end up happening - and surely there can be some benefits that come from elements of surprise.. .. and I think that we are still getting used to this world of ongoing buying pressures through those newly formulate onramps, aka bitcoin spot ETFs.

I have a hard time figuring out from where exactly they are getting their coins.

Yeah, we see a lot of coins flowing out of GBTC, so surely there seems to be attempts to paint that as if it were some kind of a negative, when the inflows into other ETFs have been way outpacing the GBTC outflows - especially when you zoom out over several weeks - and even a couple of months of inflows and clearly new demand. .. so who is selling?  I don't know, but someone's gotta be selling.. unless they are fractionally reserving.. which surely I am not going to presume any of those twats to have actual integrity, if there might be areas for them to get away with shenanigans.

So yeah a pump could come at any time.. we've been floating largely $74k to $60k if you could call that a correction. .. but it was enough to wake dragonvslinux for a short period of time. .and almost animate him into losing a bet.. but then now we are back int he upper $60ks and lower $70ks for nearly a week.. and yeah, not quite a week.. since maybe it is important that a bit of an up-leg from lower $60ks to upper $60ks took place at the end of last weekend and the beginning of the week.. to the extent that even matters.. business days and all of that.

But then on the other end, it had been a bit more than two weeks since we last seen an ATH, and that was at the end of that particular week..

I don't know or claim if ATHs might not be sufficiently reasonable to happen on the weekends too..

Why not?


Edit: For some reason when I wrote the above, I was thinking that we were already in the weekend.. .. so getting my days mixed up.. and maybe just go ahead and forget about every thing that I said above that relates to anything that related to anything.



Sensing a new ATH in the next 24 hours.

Because...reasons.
We all are fortunate enough to see another ATH this week.
We'll see.

I'm hoping we'll continue at least sideways until the halving.

I've still got a shitload of taxes to catch up on before the end of April. I managed to convince my personal taxman that it would be in everybody's best interest to cut me some slack over the winter in anticipation of some serious Bitcoin price growth before the halving. Luckily that came to be. Now I've gotta put up or shut up.

Any of us likely hate to sell too much too soon, but surely this does not seem to be a bad place to shave some off, especially compared with $27k in October... and also it could have been that we would have been dickering around with mid-$40ks and lower $50ks until the halvening .. which seemed like a pretty likely scenario until the ETFs actually went through and launched us clearly in the middle of noman's land that also being considered as our new don't wake me up zone, which surely seems strange to consider this price range with those two names at the same time, but if the glove fits, put it on.

Interrupting Buddy streak.
Where is everyone?

When in the don't wake me up zone, it is optional to sleep.

I had a pretty BIG tax bill this year too, for "reasons.".. kind of weird to sometimes be paying so damned much.. ... ..
yeah my wife complains about the amount of taxes we pay lately. i just tell her that if you dont want us to pay taxes we can always choose to be poor, as we only pay taxes when we make money.

she grudgingly agrees paying it is better.

There can be dilemmas regarding if there is enough money in the various accounts that are already in dollars to pay the bill, so then just move a little money around so that there is enough in the account that is paying the bill... so then it comes in handy to have some of that money just hanging around.. .. yet at the same time, don't we also sometimes worry if we have too much cash that is just hanging around and it is not working?.. I hate to get sucked into those luring ideas of yield and interest and dividends, even though surely there is some attractiveness in having your money working versus not working, and another thing is that I will admit that I did have to sell some cornz to cover the float.. or to be able to maintain my sufficient cashfloat.. which meant that I ended up selling around 0.3% of my BTC stash, and hey that should just be a rounding error correct?.. I mean I probably am already to a status that I am permitted to sell way more than that - even 30x of that and to even claim that it is sustainable to be able to sell up to 10% per year..... so still dancing around ideas of being able to sell 4% to 6% to 10% per year. .. and look at me getting all worked up over a mere 0.3%.. .. even if I sold that every single month. .that would not even add up to the 4%.. it would be 3.6% for the whole year.. .. gotta pick up the spending game.. I keep saying to myself, but not really complying.. .

Maybe I should bid against Bob's 55 acres to the south of him?... and we could become neighbors?  good ole buddies?

Could you actually imagine bob as your neighbor in real life?
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March 30, 2024, 05:28:06 AM

you need front and back photo of your drivers license or your passport.

Also they are FDIC for your cash.

I usually keep a few thousand in cash for business on their site.

Less in coins.

My relative is on visit visa to USA and has valid passport with USA visa. So he can also use that facility?

The withdrawal is not much just few hundred buck's.

What about binance? That too works in USA?
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March 30, 2024, 05:55:23 AM
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I had a pretty BIG tax bill this year too, for "reasons.".. kind of weird to sometimes be paying so damned much.. ... ..
yeah my wife complains about the amount of taxes we pay lately. i just tell her that if you dont want us to pay taxes we can always choose to be poor, as we only pay taxes when we make money.

she grudgingly agrees paying it is better.

There can be dilemmas regarding if there is enough money in the various accounts that are already in dollars to pay the bill, so then just move a little money around so that there is enough in the account that is paying the bill... so then it comes in handy to have some of that money just hanging around.. .. yet at the same time, don't we also sometimes worry if we have too much cash that is just hanging around and it is not working?.. I hate to get sucked into those luring ideas of yield and interest and dividends, even though surely there is some attractiveness in having your money working versus not working, and another thing is that I will admit that I did have to sell some cornz to cover the float.. or to be able to maintain my sufficient cashfloat.. which meant that I ended up selling around 0.3% of my BTC stash, and hey that should just be a rounding error correct?.. I mean I probably am already to a status that I am permitted to sell way more than that - even 30x of that and to even claim that it is sustainable to be able to sell up to 10% per year..... so still dancing around ideas of being able to sell 4% to 6% to 10% per year. .. and look at me getting all worked up over a mere 0.3%.. .. even if I sold that every single month. .that would not even add up to the 4%.. it would be 3.6% for the whole year.. .. gotta pick up the spending game.. I keep saying to myself, but not really complying.. .

Maybe I should bid against Bob's 55 acres to the south of him?... and we could become neighbors?  good ole buddies?

Could you actually imagine bob as your neighbor in real life?

Trading in and out often increase taxes as these trades count as short term cap gains, which are taxed the same as income, so up to 37%+NIIT of 3.8%+state tax (not in TX).
Not optimal, so after experiencing this kind of taxes once (during the Internet "bubble"), I almost never sell before at least a year has passed.
I hear in Germany, it is zero tax after a year. No such luck here, but some more manageable amount after a year.
Keeping most of cash in a bank (which pays out close to nothing) vs keeping it in a brokerage account that pays above 5% in a money market fund is as close to a nobrainer as it could get in a non-crisis economic situation.
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March 30, 2024, 06:00:53 AM

Yeah.. last cycle I had my highest range starting from $1.5 million and higher (with around 0.5% odds), so this cycle has gotta be higher than that, unless I happened to have been wrong the last time around with my assignment of possibilities.. I am not going t concede the assignment to have had been wrong, even though surely the outcome showed that such prices would not even come close to being met within the terms that I had outlined...

yet still I would suggest ultra bullish for this particular cycle has to at least get close to $1 million .. or perhaps sub $1 million and higher (such as $800k plus).. would also be acceptable in order to really attempt to recognize and appreciate some of the underlying dynamics that push upon my lil precious prices.. so in that regards to $250k as a "ultra-bullish price target" would maybe be on the relative conservative or perhaps mid-range side of bullish. even though sure there is ONLY around a 3.2x-ish difference between $250k versus $800k plus.
I have read your posts on this and others. The problem I have though is assigning any kind of probability to numbers above 250, sure there is a very tiny weeny .% probability and to me they are all like pie in the sky and not realistic. Its easy on one hand to say its only a "3.2x-is difference" but based on market cap your talking about going from ~1.3T and ~70k spot to  13T and ~700k spot. I cant wrap my head around that much capital injection happening this cycle. Dont get me wrong it would be great, and I might be severely underestimating retail fomo and etf + other cap injections along the way during this bull but at the same time lets be realistic.

I am attempting to be realistic.

You assign lower probabilities than me. No problem.

If you add up all of my projected numbers above $650k from my 2021 assignment of probabilities that I had assigned around 6.75% probabilities that the BTC price would go higher than $650k during that last cycle.. and yeah of course, the price did not end up going above $69k.. yet this cycle the odds for supra $650k has to be higher than it was last time.. and yeah I had not considered a number for that yet.

A  few days ago, I had also assigned probabilities to what the BTC price will be in 10 years.

So maybe the odds that you come to calculate might look something like the below that in 10 years BTC will:

1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover)  - less than 1%
2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) -  less than 5%
3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) -  less than 8%
4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) -  less than 9%
5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) -  less than 10%
6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) -  around 10%
7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%
8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%
9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%
10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%
11) Go to a price that is higher $10m -  around 7%


I am attempting to be realistic in all of my assignments of probabilities.  I suppose that having differing ideas about future probabilities (especially when it comes to prices, such as BTC prices) contributes to differing market behaviors, and if we all agreed about the current BTC price or variations of the future price, then that would be a boring world.  There would be no volatility.. but that is not the world we live in, especially when it comes to BTC.. In BTC we have violent and inevitable volatility that is likely going to last until it reaches around $5 million per coin or more. . which is around 10x gold's market cap (which maybe is going to happen within 2-4 cycles).. and then BTC is going to have another 100x more appreciation from that in the coming 50-200 years.. so these things take a while, but even in the relatively short term, we can likely have some funzies.

[edited out]
I have a possible solution to your puzzle: this "cycle" will continue for longer than expected.
This way, it could get to 13T in about seven years at about 40% appreciation/year (on average) or roughly 2X of Nasdaq.
Or, get there sooner, say, by 2029 (at 60% a year) and then undergo a long term bear.
Witness a 8 year (about) bull market in Gold after ETF approval, followed by a 3-6 year bear (depending if you count from the lows or from the change in trend) and now 6-9 years of continuing bull.
Imho, we would get something similar, but not exactly, of course.

That sounds pretty bearish, Biodom..

But hey, you are entitled to your own whimpy opinion.. whether it ends up being correct or not.

Ok.. this cycle is until around the end of 2025, give or take 6 months... so $650k to $900k could be reached.. maybe.. rough ball park of greater than 10% odds..

you need front and back photo of your drivers license or your passport.

Also they are FDIC for your cash.

I usually keep a few thousand in cash for business on their site.

Less in coins.
My relative is on visit visa to USA and has valid passport with USA visa. So he can also use that facility?

The withdrawal is not much just few hundred buck's.

What about binance? That too works in USA?

Binance US discontinued its transactions in USD right around the the beginning of 2023.

There is cash app, and Gemini, and there may be bitcoin atms, depending on the city where the guy is going... or maybe bitcoin meetups and just transact directly with some real world peeps.
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March 30, 2024, 06:01:16 AM


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March 30, 2024, 07:01:13 AM


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