Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Btw in Belgium Easter = chocolate eggs. Just for you to know

#haiku (special Sunday Haiku)

[Biodom]

I know that many people post 120-140K as a possible top this cycle and yet others think that we would go to 250-500K. Those are probably two main ideas of where the top might occur.
I want to present an alternative scenario. It would be mostly just numerology (with my bias), so here is that.
Consider prior tops:

$$: 32, 1160, 19780, 69800 (numbers could be slightly off, I am going from memory).
OK..1160 from 32 is 55X, 19780 from 1160 is 17X, 69800 from 19780 is 3.5x
Mostly people say: aha..so next will be a decrease to 2X peak to peak or even slightly lower (I have seen even 116K bandied about).

However, I propose an alternative scenario:
What if the 2021 number is an "artificial" one, caused by the chinese mining ban plus FTX shenanigans?
Let's just use a "projective" numerology and assume that a cycle reduction should be similar from cycle to cycle with a 0.309 coefficient (the fraction of 17X and 55X).
This gives a "theoretical" 2021 value of 5.25X of 2017 value or $103351 and 2024-2025 value of $167661 (1.622X(of 103351)=5.25X0.309X103351).

Of course, it is entirely possible that because we underperformed in the prior cycle, we would outperform in this one and peak even higher, but I decided to show the numbers I got so far.

TL;DR An alternative numerology suggests a peak at ~$168K for this cycle.

[Biodom]

more dough is printed
what percentage to bitcoin?
not zero, I say

# Sunday haiku

[Pandorak]

However, I propose an alternative scenario:
What if the 2021 number is an "artificial" one, caused by the chinese mining ban plus FTX shenanigans?
Let's just use a "projective" numerology and assume that a cycle reduction should be similar from cycle to cycle with a 0.309 coefficient (the fraction of 17X and 55X).
This gives a "theoretical" 2021 value of 5.25X of 2017 value or $103351 and 2024-2025 value of $167661 (1.622X(of 103351)=5.25X0.309X103351).

And what if those catalysts make another "artificial" price in this cycle?

Bad narratives around crypto have been heard, the latest is the KuCoin case, why does this problem come when bitcoin biggest event is coming?

Based on the rainbow chart^[1], usually we are at the "Accumulate" and "Still Cheap" levels after the halving occurs (based on 2 latest halvings). Because now is the MEGA GIGA TERRA ULTRA SUPER ULTIMATE MAXIMUM cycle ever in crypto, so we expect prices that are beyond our expectations. I think we will go to $150,000 - $250,000 per now - December 31, 2025 timeframe.

[1] https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Possible.. . yeah sure.. but really?  

Are you going to really want to argue something in that lame-ass direction?  

Is there a way we could potentially outline something like this to be bettable because what you are suggesting it quite outrageous, and you likely know that you would not stand behind what you just said, but you want to appear as if you are "open-minded" while at the same time, you are providing "fair and balanced" fringe nutjob theories as if they were to have some kind of a meaningful chance that would be worthy of serious accounting.

You almost deserve a slappening for that nonsense.... unless you would rather frame your nonsense in acceptable bet terms, then I will forgive you for your participation in this line of thinking.
 

That's a strange reaction..
Personally, I don't care about gold, but it is perfectly reasonable that it MIGHT be at 5K in 8 years as it is ONLY 2.4X, roughly, or 10-11%/year.
Similarly, it is also perfectly reasonable for bitcoin to be at 1.6 mil in 8 years as it would be 23X or about 48% a year.
Not interested in any bets as I don't have a strong conviction about either of these numbers.

Ok.  I admit it.  I might have overreacted, since now that go back and I reread your claims, they don't necessarily seem as shocking and/or bad as I had originally understood them to be..... and maybe I was just too irritated by any attempt to be "fair and balanced" when it comes to gold overtaking bitcoin - or any framing that bitcoin and gold are correlated in meaningful ways, especially since bitcoin has already historically been eating gold's lunch,  and is likely to continue to go in that direction... even if it might be some modest variation, like you seem to be suggesting, which I also read your initial post as being way more gradual than what you seem to be describing.. but yeah, there is a bit of bearishness to suggest that bitcoin is going to only 10x relative to gold in the next 8 years.. even though, like you specified, bitcoin would be 23xing against fiat and gold would ONLY be 2.4xing against fiat.. so yeah upon rereading it, I am not as outraged as I was the first time around.

EDIT: a keyboard fight? lol

Still sliding at 70k better 70 than 60 but I am waiting on 80.

I can see a trend... - you will never be happy

Looks like we are going to achieve the highest EVER weekly and, at the same time, monthly closing... and both even over the previous cycle peak (not closing) ATH.
Nice.

That is a good point.  I had not even noticed how those weekly candles are closing.

I usually don't like to call these kinds of matters, as early as you were projecting it (since at the time that you posted that, the weekly close was still 8.5 hours away), and so far our highest closing candle was 4 weeks ago when it closed at $69,026.. so yeah, the odds are looking greater and greater to close above that current weekly high.. yet we still have 4 hours to go..

Still... even though we are appearing to have momentum, I hate to count my easter bunnies before the easter eggs hatch.

I'm not sure I will live long enough, tough.

Heh. Replacement of gold can happen within the next 4 to 8 years. Replacement of the real estate is going to take a little longer though...

It is all happening simultaneously - especially since none of those other assets are going to be completely replaced by bitcoin.  It would mostly ONLY be removing the monetary premium that is getting inefficiently put into those kinds of assets that are not very good monetary goods... so yeah, they will still have various values and maybe even some monetary premium value, just not as much monetary premium as they currently hold, since bitcoin is more efficient in regards to being a better money and therefore deserving of the storage of monetary value.. .so it would be strange to suggest that bitcoin were to have any kind of monetary premium, even though any asset or money can get overvalued, especially during price pumps that end up going on too much and for too long.. so if BTC were to shoot up to $500k within the next 2-6 months, many of us might consider that to be too much too fast.. and maybe we could refer to that as a monetary premium, even though it is a short-term monetary premium not like the kind of monetary premium that a lot of current assets have because they are so pumped by the dollar and the fact that not too many folks (besides Phillip) wants to be holding their value in dollars.. (o..k.. sure i lie a bit since there still is a lot of demand for the dollar since it is the least bad of the large number of MOAR shittier currencies).

[fillippone]

I'm not sure I will live long enough, tough.

Heh. Replacement of gold can happen within the next 4 to 8 years. Replacement of the real estate is going to take a little longer though...

It is all happening simultaneously - especially since none of those other assets are going to be completely replaced by bitcoin.  It would mostly ONLY be removing the monetary premium that is getting inefficiently put into those kinds of assets that are not very good monetary goods... so yeah, they will still have various values and maybe even some monetary premium value, just not as much monetary premium as they currently hold, since bitcoin is more efficient in regards to being a better money and therefore deserving of the storage of monetary value.. .so it would be strange to suggest that bitcoin were to have any kind of monetary premium, even though any asset or money can get overvalued, especially during price pumps that end up going on too much and for too long.. so if BTC were to shoot up to $500k within the next 2-6 months, many of us might consider that to be too much too fast.. and maybe we could refer to that as a monetary premium, even though it is a short-term monetary premium not like the kind of monetary premium that a lot of current assets have because they are so pumped by the dollar and the fact that not too many folks (besides Phillip) wants to be holding their value in dollars.. (o..k.. sure i lie a bit since there still is a lot of demand for the dollar since it is the least bad of the large number of MOAR shittier currencies).

This model says 100k in 2025 and 1M in 2032.

Giovanni Santostasi - The Bitcoin Power Law Theory

Then it will be slower and slower.
Better buy now, than tomorrow.

[Biodom]

Partially OT:

Typically, I don't post about s-tcoins, but I want to address one interesting social phenomenon about them this cycle.
A memecoin obviously does not have a value, apart from being just that, a meme.
However, why we see such seemingly outrageous valuations for those: 31bil, 18bil, 4.6bil, 3.6 bil..and on and on.
I think that it represents something, but what is it?
Possibilities:
1. Rejection of traditional monetary values. Something like this: "you, boomers made my life difficult, so to spite you and reject what you think is valuable, I would invest in meme stocks (GME, AMC, etc) and meme coins".
2. Desire to organize into virtual "tribes": the tribe of dog#1, the tribe of dog#2, the tribe of a "dog wif hat" (for f sake!), frog, whatever.
Each tribe has a meme, then probably would have certain rituals, etc.
3. Complete and utter nihilism that translates into "laying flat" and meme coin chasing.

Honestly, this is not what I expected, but it seems where we are.
Certainly, memes have, for now*, the biggest momentum.
I am not buying any, but I am very curious about what it all means going forward.
I also think that it seems that memes distract from the major thesis of bitcoin as being a new form of money.
They are almost a caricature of that important idea.

Bewildered.

* I have a bag of dog#1 from long time ago at zero cost as I took lots of profit during the last super spike.

[philipma1957]

Partially OT:

Typically, I don't post about s-tcoins, but I want to address one interesting social phenomenon about them this cycle.
Memecoin obviously does not havea value, apart from being just that, a meme.
However, why we see such seemingly outgareous valuations for those: 31bil, 18bil, 4.6bil, 3.6 bil..and on and on.
I think that it represents something, but what is it?
Possibilities:
1. Rejection of traditional monetary values. Something like this: "you, boomers made my life difficult, so to spite you and reject what you think is valuable, I would invest in meme stocks (GME, AMC, etc) and meme coins".
2. Desire to organize into virtual "tribes": the tribe of dog#1, the tribe of dog#2, the tribe of a "dog wif hat" (for f sake!), frog, whatever.
Each tribe has a meme, then probably would have certain rituals, etc.
3. Complete and utter nihilism that translates into "laying flat" and meme coin chasing.

Honestly, this is not what I expected, but it seems where we are.
Certainly, memes have, for now*, the biggest momentum.
I am not buying any, but I am very curious about what it all means going forward.
I also think that it seems that meames distract from the major thesis of bitcoin as being a new form of money.
They are almost a caricature of that important idea.

Bewildered.

* I have a bag of dog#1 from long time ago at zero cost as I took lots of profit during the last super spike.

If you believe in satoshi's power into wealth concept the scrypt algo is okay.

I don't know if any of the other memes you think about  are pow .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

buddy is an easter egg on toast sandwich

[Biodom]

Partially OT:

Typically, I don't post about s-tcoins, but I want to address one interesting social phenomenon about them this cycle.
Memecoin obviously does not havea value, apart from being just that, a meme.
However, why we see such seemingly outgareous valuations for those: 31bil, 18bil, 4.6bil, 3.6 bil..and on and on.
I think that it represents something, but what is it?
Possibilities:
1. Rejection of traditional monetary values. Something like this: "you, boomers made my life difficult, so to spite you and reject what you think is valuable, I would invest in meme stocks (GME, AMC, etc) and meme coins".
2. Desire to organize into virtual "tribes": the tribe of dog#1, the tribe of dog#2, the tribe of a "dog wif hat" (for f sake!), frog, whatever.
Each tribe has a meme, then probably would have certain rituals, etc.
3. Complete and utter nihilism that translates into "laying flat" and meme coin chasing.

Honestly, this is not what I expected, but it seems where we are.
Certainly, memes have, for now*, the biggest momentum.
I am not buying any, but I am very curious about what it all means going forward.
I also think that it seems that meames distract from the major thesis of bitcoin as being a new form of money.
They are almost a caricature of that important idea.

Bewildered.

* I have a bag of dog#1 from long time ago at zero cost as I took lots of profit during the last super spike.

If you believe in satoshi's power into wealth concept the scrypt algo is okay.

I don't know if any of the other memes you think about  are pow .

It matters to me and you, but it does not matter for meme-runners or so it seems.

[OgNasty]

buddy is an easter egg on toast sandwich

I’m no stranger to a good toasted egg salad sandwich. Some mustard and cheese.. Sounds kind of gross but I have them for breakfast occasionally. This time of year the eggs even tend to be colored.

[AlcoHoDL]

One Sunday closer,
To next month's Halving event.
Yet, few understand!

Blue, green, or orange?
One bull to wipe out all bulls?
My bet's on orange!

Phil's getting older...
His haikus miss syllables...
Cooking still great though!

Bob's buying more land.
Neighbors thought he would give in.
They'll learn the hard way!

Hey, Grayscale, what's up?
Have you gone completely nuts?
Thanks for the cheap coins!

Gold better than corn?
Is this some kind of r0ach joke?
Fuck CNBC!

Bat-slap expected.
Instead, a thoughtful reply.
Thank you, JJG!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[BobLawblaw]

Damnit... Another 55 acres of grazing land came up for sale directly south abutting of our homestead... Guess I should do something with this corn... Can't spend it when I'm dead...

Submitted a counter offer earlier today. Cross your fingers for me, gentlemen!

Handshake deal for the land this afternoon. Gunna set me back a few pieces of corn, but it's worth it!

Super excited! Moar cows nao!!!

Close on the deal in 30 days.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

how about $88888.88 for


April fool's day

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com