When I last looked at the liquidity data on CEXs, it said that they had about 1.8 million BTC - and regardless of the accuracy of the data, I think that the supply shock that has been talked about for years is not yet in sight.
We might need to see some links to how that CEX quantity of bitcoin is changing through the years before we can say whether 1.8 million is enough to absorb ongoing buying pressures that seem to be coming through a large number of new sources (oh never mind,
psycodad seems to have had provided some decent links), including but not limited to the new ETFs that are ongoingly sucking up more of the coins, and seeming to be coming from new rather than existing BTC holders - even though sure there might be some already existing BTC holders converting over to ETFs, I doubt that the quantity of converts is sufficiently offset by the new folks coming into bitcoin and putting additional pressures on whatever actual real bitcoins are available to be absorbed.
Supply shock seems inevitable.. but maybe it ONLY causes a 2x to 3x increase in BTC prices... which I am just talking my own previous assertions of $120k to $180k being a potentially decent consolidation range that could play out for a bit of time.. maybe even a whole year-ish?
Bitcoin still fighting for a breakout which will happend...today ore later this week i hope.
Bitcoin cycle these days be like :
1. Start from 60k$
2. Move to 63-64k and stay there for a while.
3. Move to 68k and make people excited.
4. Move to 70k and make people excited for new ATH.
5. Fall back to step 1 or 2.
6... and 1-5 keeps happening, until it doesn't.
Nothing wrong with that.
[edited out]
So even more than I thought - but still it is a large amount, and people who keep their coins on CEX obviously have a good reason for it - let's assume that they want to sell them at a certain moment, maybe when the price reaches $100k? I have nothing against you being right - I would like to experience someone wanting to buy a large amount of BTC, but not being able to do so because there are no coins on the market.
Of course, there are all kinds of reasons that people keep some or all of their coins on exchanges, and surely some of the coins are going to be for sale at certain prices, and maybe if the BTC price moves fast in one direction or another coins become available for sale that were not previously available for sale.
I personally believe that the supply shock theory is real.. even though there are always going to be people making more and more coins available as the BTC price goes up, yet the million dollar (bitcoin) question still remains regarding if the quantity of the increase in demand is going to outpace the amount of coins that are ongoingly coming available as the BTC price goes up, and many of us already realize that there are quite a few folks who are pretty modest in their sales of BTC, and sure they will sell some of their BTC, but they are likely not selling them in as grand of quantities as they might do in other asset classes.. so in other words, it seems like many BTC coin holders are more and more informed that it is not a good idea to sell too many of their coins too soon, even if they may well be willing to sell some of them along the way up the price path.
Its nice to see us over 70, the last few weeks its been hard to stay bullish when we have been stuck in this range. Some days I'm hesitant to even bother checking the prices because i know it will be in the range and then other days I am super bullish and and start digging into the data, and dreaming of next run. Ahhhh the trials and tribulations, #1stworldproblems
A new thought popped into my head this morning though, and this is pure speculation(since speculating on a range bound asset price at the moment is boring AF). Could the accumulation thats going on over the last 3months be tied into when the next ATH will hit. For example, if we look at the current date range of this sideways action its Mar - Jun, for a short-term investor of 1yr timeframe in the US at least they have to hold the asset for 12months to get the long term capital gains rate. Could we be in store for fun in Mar - Jun in 2025, is this where some of the short termer's planning to sell into to.
I would like to definitely say I'm not a short term investor, but just some speculating on whats going on in the market now and how this might effect the markets next year.
Keep calm, keeping stacking :-)
I am not going to claim to know the answer, and my thoughts are that BTC prices have pretty good odds of hitting somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024, and that the ATH of 2025 will be higher than the ATH of 2024, but surely my own is just a tentative working idea (or my base case) and I doubt that my base case even has higher than 50/50 odds of happening, even though I believe it to be the most likely momentum that I am anticipating at the moment based on current information.. yet as information changes, then so might the base case.
Poll
