Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Willy Woo
@woonomic
ETFs are buying...

Institutions are buying...

Who the hell is selling?

2024 brought a mass of commentators looking at ETFs flows, as if that's all that matters.

What matters is total demand and supply.

Here's a 101 thread on how the modern #Bitcoin  market works.
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727009602646427


Willy Woo
@woonomic
First, let me tell you who is selling.

The OGs. They are selling

They have more BTC than all the ETFs put together... 10x more.

And they sell into every bull market.

This pattern is as old as the genesis block.

Chart below: the age x amount of coins being sold.

https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727011871957115


Willy Woo
@woonomic
We are now in the modern age of BTC.

Paper BTC has flooded the market since 2017.

Futures markets.

If you want to buy BTC, it used to be you had to buy real BTC.

You can now buy paper BTC. Thus a no-coiner can sell you that paper.

Together you have made a synthetic BTC.

https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727014535053376


Willy Woo
@woonomic
That would-be demand for BTC gets diverted to paper BTC, fulfilled by counter traders who have no BTC to sell, they just have USD to back their bet.
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727016586383618


Willy Woo
@woonomic
In the old days, BTC would go on an exponential run because the only sellers was a trickle from the OGs and an even smaller amount from miners with their newly mined coins.

Today the magic of paper BTC is what you want to watch.
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727018364461294?s=46


Willy Woo
@woonomic
The 2022 bear market was dictated by a flood of paper BTC when spot holders didn't really sell.

In this current bull, I have marked where paper increased,  these were times when price didn't rally.

We are in one of these right now.

The 2022 bear market was dictated by a flood of paper BTC when spot holders didn't really sell.

In this current bull, I have marked where paper increased,  these were times when price didn't rally.

We are in one of these right now.

https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727020562350494


Willy Woo
@woonomic
So... not a great idea to look solely at ETF buying.

On-chain data... derivatives data... technical price action...

All of these add to the demand and supply picture.

Putting it together is an art, not a quantifiable science.

Everyone is just making educated guesses.
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727022768468255

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Willy Woo
@woonomic
We are now in the modern age of BTC.
Paper BTC has flooded the market since 2017.
Futures markets.
If you want to buy BTC, it used to be you had to buy real BTC.
You can now buy paper BTC. Thus a no-coiner can sell you that paper.
Together you have made a synthetic BTC.
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727014535053376


Willy Woo
@woonomic
That would-be demand for BTC gets diverted to paper BTC, fulfilled by counter traders who have no BTC to sell, they just have USD to back their bet.
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727016586383618

This is all true, but if (when!) you want to issue more ETF shares, you do need the "underlying" - that is, the real thing, or King Daddy as someone says.

In other words: if ETF shares are just changing hands, this may not move the underlying price directly at all. But if new shares are issued, the institution creating a new synthetic (piece of) BTC needs an equivalent real piece.

People look at ETF  in/outflows because when big corporations, pension funds, or sovereign states look for BTC ETFs to add to their balance sheets or treasuries, there is no escaping from someone  - even if maybe not them directly - having to go shopping for some authentic corn. Not paper, no photos, no IOU. Real, hard bitcoin. Wait and see.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Willy Woo
@woonomic
We are now in the modern age of BTC.

Paper BTC has flooded the market since 2017.

Futures markets.

If you want to buy BTC, it used to be you had to buy real BTC.

You can now buy paper BTC. Thus a no-coiner can sell you that paper.

Together you have made a synthetic BTC.

https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727014535053376

That's what these futures were all about: "Taming" Bitcoin.
There's no free lunch for coiners, thanks to the wall street party poopers 

[xhomerx10]

OT: Check out a cool map of US housing affordability. Move the slider to whatever your number is  
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/map-where-can-you-afford-a-home-in-the-united-states-rcna155286
The median household income in US is $77397.
The whole west coast+Florida coast+ Tristate area (NY, NJ, CT)+ the rest of the North-east coast are unaffordable for at least 50% of the populace.

Slide all the way to the right, notice that the largest area that still priced out, is the Jackson Hole. Go search the photos around this area, the views are like they are from Switzerland.

I noticed the area, but did not bother to check that it is around Jackson, thanks.
Apparently WY is 11X the area of NJ and is also bigger than UK-I did not know these factoids beforehand.
https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/USA/wyoming_map.htm

Maybe "aliens" around the "Devils Tower" have all that money  

...most likely just wealthy ranchers, though.

 What's up with West Virginia?  I heard it was almost heaven and yet there's no data?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

I moved the income slider all the way to the right and overlayed some national parks 'n stuff - legend below (I think the colours were preserved... didn't want to spend too much time on it)

[Hueristic]

OT: Check out a cool map of US housing affordability. Move the slider to whatever your number is  
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/map-where-can-you-afford-a-home-in-the-united-states-rcna155286
The median household income in US is $77397.
The whole west coast+Florida coast+ Tristate area (NY, NJ, CT)+ the rest of the North-east coast are unaffordable for at least 50% of the populace.

Slide all the way to the right, notice that the largest area that still priced out, is the Jackson Hole. Go search the photos around this area, the views are like they are from Switzerland.

I noticed the area, but did not bother to check that it is around Jackson, thanks.
Apparently WY is 11X the area of NJ and is also bigger than UK-I did not know these factoids beforehand.
https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/USA/wyoming_map.htm

Maybe "aliens" around the "Devils Tower" have all that money  

...most likely just wealthy ranchers, though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQE_zNs5HOU

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

Meanwhile, my friend, a time traveller, sent me this leaked pic from a 2025 100k party....   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

leaked pic from a 2025 100k party....    

I hope she's at least 19 then.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Meanwhile, my friend, a time traveller, sent me this leaked pic from a 2025 100k party....   

 Oh ffs!  Looks like we're gonna lose our shirts!  Sell, sell sell!

[Hueristic]

A new HWUB vid on the intel performance changes.

Unfortunately all these tests are game only but does have some good power metrics under core heavy workloads.

But then again X3D is a gaming chip and not the workstation core heavy line.

https://odysee.com/@HardwareUnboxed:2/ryzen-7-7800x3d-vs.-intel-core-i9-14900k:6

I like Steve's reviews as he does a ton of real world testing and not targeted BS.

Tim on the other hand is a Fanboi that can't be trusted.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com