Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aesma]

Thanks Trump, taking a bullet for the team. Now go away please.

Anyways, here in France politics have delved into a bit of chaos. Nobody has won the election, and our current (1958 vintage) constitution wasn't ready for that, so now we don't know what happens. For a few days it seemed that the lunatic far left was going to get into government. And when I say far left, I'm not talking about Bernie Sanders. France is already like Bernie Sanders' dream. No, I'm talking 90 or even 110% tax rates, including on capital gains, a limit on successions of 12 millions euros, over that the state takes everything (including a billion dollar company), disarming the police, letting all immigrants in and providing them with housing, food, healthcare etc., really crazy people.

Now that perspective has faded away a bit, it seems we'll keep the previous government for a while, which is a bit strange since it lost the election.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[As-Soon-As]

https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1813346954102849573

Farm in the 🇳🇱 Netherlands uses #Bitcoin mining to keep stable temperatures inside the greenhouse

This surprises other Bitcoin miners around the world, there are a fair share of such Bitcoin miners around the world as Big Wall Street giant corporations own all the exclusive mining facilities. 
It doubles the profit and eco-friendly crops, here the miners can get double the profit by using bitcoin mining by controlling the temperature.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ambatman]

I think a lot of what a person will do depends of how much btc they get.

I would think most people left  are more then five coins.

I would think Selling 10% and keeping 90% in coin will be common.

I am also not sure about tax rules.

If you had coins in feb 2014 they were worth 650 usd they are 100x at 65,000

having 5 coins means 3250 is now 325,000. I am not sure if you could be taxed in full at a cost basis of 3250

usa law at the moment would mean 20% or 60-65k in tax.

I dont have mount gox coins. so not a worry for me.

But if I did get five coins and thought I may owe 65k in tax. I am selling 100k of 325k and paying the 65k asap.

this would give me 35k cash and 225k in btc or 3.46 btc.

So I suspect savvy USA people are going to sell at least 20% and pay capital gains on the whole 5 coins.

But what do I know.

The capital gain tax is different for various countries including asset or income that are considered taxable
In my country it's 10% for capital gain tax but since you mentioned USA, let's use it as a basis as can be seen below.



The deadline which for tax payment is also quite different for different countries but one for USA is April 2025
So there's no rush in paying tax now
Besides I won't be surprised if individuals that are expecting the BTCs have started or already have a method that they would benefit the most from even with tax.
Like taking their holdings as a collateral.
You don't need to pay tax if you not selling.

There are countries whose tax system would cost little or nothing to receivers of The MT GOX Btc
Like Belze, Netherlands(usually no tax on personal equity), Singapore, Switzerland (progressive tax system here), Monaco etc.  

Personally I think most especially those holding quite some amount before wouldn't want to sell
They have been surviving without it except those that really needs it or have weak hands
Well as long as the fall is not caused by anything that threatens Bitcoin Fundamentals
Then it would always be a buying opportunity.

There are some country where Tax on long holding assets are
The capital tax law of countries are quite different so it all depends and you don't have to pay your Tax when holding except when you sell.
The last time I got any contact with Bitcoin price it was around $55K
It always a beautiful experience buying Bitcoin when it's showing -5 to 7%

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[heslo]

This is absolutely beautiful; a true example of FAFO. Can't wait till the charges against him come and he deserves every bit of pain he gets for all the suffering he put people through

[LoyceV]

There are countries whose tax system would cost little or nothing to receivers of The MT GOX Btc
Like Belze, Netherlands(usually no tax on personal equity), Singapore, Switzerland (progressive tax system here), Monaco etc.

This is incorrect. In The Netherlands, there's basically a wealth tax. It used to be 1.2% per year, nowadays it's closer to 2% per year. I'm not sure how an uncertain claim like MtGox would have been filed annually, but if you get the money now, for sure you owe taxes retroactively. Since Bitcoin is currently high, and the tax is calculated based on the value on January 1st each year, the total percentage is not that bad.

[philipma1957]

I think a lot of what a person will do depends of how much btc they get.

I would think most people left  are more then five coins.

I would think Selling 10% and keeping 90% in coin will be common.

I am also not sure about tax rules.

If you had coins in feb 2014 they were worth 650 usd they are 100x at 65,000

having 5 coins means 3250 is now 325,000. I am not sure if you could be taxed in full at a cost basis of 3250

usa law at the moment would mean 20% or 60-65k in tax.

I dont have mount gox coins. so not a worry for me.

But if I did get five coins and thought I may owe 65k in tax. I am selling 100k of 325k and paying the 65k asap.

this would give me 35k cash and 225k in btc or 3.46 btc.

So I suspect savvy USA people are going to sell at least 20% and pay capital gains on the whole 5 coins.

But what do I know.

The capital gain tax is different for various countries including asset or income that are considered taxable
In my country it's 10% for capital gain tax but since you mentioned USA, let's use it as a basis as can be seen below.



The deadline which for tax payment is also quite different for different countries but one for USA is April 2025
So there's no rush in paying tax now
Besides I won't be surprised if individuals that are expecting the BTCs have started or already have a method that they would benefit the most from even with tax.
Like taking their holdings as a collateral.
You don't need to pay tax if you not selling.

There are countries whose tax system would cost little or nothing to receivers of The MT GOX Btc
Like Belze, Netherlands(usually no tax on personal equity), Singapore, Switzerland (progressive tax system here), Monaco etc.  

Personally I think most especially those holding quite some amount before wouldn't want to sell
They have been surviving without it except those that really needs it or have weak hands
Well as long as the fall is not caused by anything that threatens Bitcoin Fundamentals
Then it would always be a buying opportunity.

There are some country where Tax on long holding assets are
The capital tax law of countries are quite different so it all depends and you don't have to pay your Tax when holding except when you sell.
The last time I got any contact with Bitcoin price it was around $55K
It always a beautiful experience buying Bitcoin when it's showing -5 to 7%

common misconception if you earn the extra money today you need to pay estimated taxes as you earn it.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/estimated-taxes


Taxes must be paid as you earn or receive income during the year, either through withholding or estimated tax payments. If the amount of income tax withheld from your salary or pension is not enough, or if you receive income such as interest, dividends, alimony, self-employment income, capital gains, prizes and awards, you may have to make estimated tax payments. If you are in business for yourself, you generally need to make estimated tax payments. Estimated tax is used to pay not only income tax, but other taxes such as self-employment tax and alternative minimum tax.

If you don’t pay enough tax through withholding and estimated tax payments, you may have to pay a penalty. You also may have to pay a penalty if your estimated tax payments are late, even if you are due a refund when you file your tax return.

trust me  a person that scored bigly on this say 10 coins lost at 6500 now worth 650000 would be an idiot to not pay 20% or 130k the day he gets the coins

well next estimated  payment is due  9/16/2024


Now I simply have zero idea how this will be treated by usa.

but they are scum and may not say what they should which would be we will consider that you held them from 2014 to 2024 and as long as you keep them as BTC no tax is due.

My guess is they will say it is income of 650,000 - 6,500 = 635,000 which is 127,000 tax which will be due by 9/16/2024


so a 10 coins coin living in the USA should sell 2 and pay the tax.

BTW if you get the coins at 650,000 don't pay the tax and the coins drop to 30,000 each or 300,000 guess what you tax bill based will be in April 2025   650,000 not 300,000


So any USA guy or girl  needs to talk to a tax expert idk they  had 5 or 10 or more coins maybe even if they have 1 or 2 coins.


The IRS will not give a snap ruling on this I am explaining the worst the USA can do as of today.  So I see smart USA people selling at least enough to pay the tax . which is 20% if it is big or 15% if it is small enough

[philipma1957]

I bet more of those funds leave Kraken as BTC than fiat.

And it will happen almost immediately.  Self custody lesson learned

I think a lot of what a person will do depends of how much btc they get.

I would think most people left  are more then five coins.

I would think Selling 10% and keeping 90% in coin will be common.

I am also not sure about tax rules.

If you had coins in feb 2014 they were worth 650 usd they are 100x at 65,000

having 5 coins means 3250 is now 325,000. I am not sure if you could be taxed in full at a cost basis of 3250

usa law at the moment would mean 20% or 60-65k in tax.

I dont have mount gox coins. so not a worry for me.

But if I did get five coins and thought I may owe 65k in tax. I am selling 100k of 325k and paying the 65k asap.

this would give me 35k cash and 225k in btc or 3.46 btc.

So I suspect savvy USA people are going to sell at least 20% and pay capital gains on the whole 5 coins.

But what do I know.

Yes.  What do you know?

It seems important to note that GOX creditors are not going to be getting taxed anything if they are choosing to not sell any of their received coins.  

The receipt of the coins does not trigger a taxable event.  These are not mined coins.. they are likely previously purchased coins... and a fraction of their original stash (perhaps around 15%)

I know that frequently you are coming up with solutions that involve the selling of coins, but real bitcoin HODLers are not necessarily jumping straight into considering how much fiat that they can get for their cornz.. Getting an immediate fiat payoff may well not be the first thought that comes to the mind of a "true" coiner.

By the way if a GOX customer receives around 5 BTC, that may well would have meant that his quantity of BTC would have had been around 33 BTC at the time of the bankruptcy filing.. that is assuming around a payout of around 15% of his earlier GOX balance.

So yes the receipt of 5 BTC and 5 Bcash may well result in the selling of Bcash, and perhaps buying BTC with that money or maybe just completely cashing out of his Bcash stash.. which currently 5 BCash would be valued just under $2k.  Does he buy BTC with that Bcash money or just decide to use the cash? or some combination?

If such a person with around 5 BTC credit from GOX, then perhaps over the years, that person would have had also replaced his 33-ish BTC, so maybe such a person still holds around 33 BTC outside of GOX, so his receipt of a GOX payout increases his BTC stash from 33-ish to 38-ish.  Perhaps? perhaps?

38-ish BTC would not be a bad sized total stash, and surely the GOX coin recipient might consider his receipt of the 5 BTC as a reason to start some kind of a sustainable withdrawal system, even something aggressive like 10% would result in an ability to begin to cash out around 0.275 BTC per month ($17,875 at current prices).. . which is around 3.3 BTC per year...and so yeah, if someone does not need to withdraw that much, he could withdraw less than that amount... but yeah, after around a year and a half, someone withdrawing 10% per year would have had withdrawn all of his GOX coins if such a hypothetical might happen to apply to any such GOX creditor.

hmm we got,over, 66k

down a bit now.

Personally, this here cat (I) would not necessarily consider a lack of ongoing and persistent UP as being exactly down.. but, hey whatever, you are not completely inaccurate and sure it is a free world (the last time I checked), so you can say your uppities and downities however you like, since obviously, your mileage does seem to vary.

DO not tell anyone that this is not taxable event in the USA

I am simply saying there is no ruling on this and that it could be taxable . Plus since you get it now at 65k a coin if the IRS says it is taxable they will base it on 65k and if you listen to the other non usa guy that say it is not due til April of 2025 when coins drop to 30k they will base it on 65k.

So only moron would take a score and end up with nothing.

okay 5 coins were 3250 now 650000

lets agree with you that he had 33 coins they were worth 21,450

got 5 coins worth 325,000 profit of  either 303,550 or 321750

to think you should not pay 15% before sept 16 if you are USA based is stupid and high risk more.

To pay the 15% is safe. you can bet your bottom dollar guys that stumbled into this score. Will not pay and will pay

As some people are gamblers and some are not.

I have zero skin in the game.  The safe move is pay the 15% if it is smaller or pay the 20% if it is bigger.

The moron move is not to pay.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

common misconception if you earn the extra money today you need to pay estimated taxes as you earn it.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/estimated-taxes


Taxes must be paid as you earn or receive income during the year, either through withholding or estimated tax payments. If the amount of income tax withheld from your salary or pension is not enough, or if you receive income such as interest, dividends, alimony, self-employment income, capital gains, prizes and awards, you may have to make estimated tax payments. If you are in business for yourself, you generally need to make estimated tax payments. Estimated tax is used to pay not only income tax, but other taxes such as self-employment tax and alternative minimum tax.

If you don’t pay enough tax through withholding and estimated tax payments, you may have to pay a penalty. You also may have to pay a penalty if your estimated tax payments are late, even if you are due a refund when you file your tax return.

trust me  a person that scored bigly on this say 10 coins lost at 6500 now worth 650000 would be an idiot to not pay 20% or 130k the day he gets the coins

well next estimated  payment is due  9/16/2024


Now I simply have zero idea how this will be treated by usa.

but they are scum and may not say what they should which would be we will consider that you held them from 2014 to 2024 and as long as you keep them as BTC no tax is due.

My guess is they will say it is income of 650,000 - 6,500 = 635,000 which is 127,000 tax which will be due by 9/16/2024


so a 10 coins coin living in the USA should sell 2 and pay the tax.

BTW if you get the coins at 650,000 don't pay the tax and the coins drop to 30,000 each or 300,000 guess what you tax bill based will be in April 2025   650,000 not 300,000


So any USA guy or girl  needs to talk to a tax expert idk they  had 5 or 10 or more coins maybe even if they have 1 or 2 coins.


The IRS will not give a snap ruling on this I am explaining the worst the USA can do as of today.  So I see smart USA people selling at least enough to pay the tax . which is 20% if it is big or 15% if it is small enough

I am not a tax specialist and in all likelihood this is how it would be taxed, but think of the logic (or maybe the lack of it in our 1040).
Say, I had 100 coins on MtGox (I didn't have any, just a theoretical number).
They are sending me back 25 and telling me that 75 were "lost" due to the business failure.
Let's say, i get the coins today, July 17.
OK, I got the "income" of 25X65 (roughly for simplification)=$1.625 mil
In addition, I also got a claim of a capital loss of 75X65=$4.875 mil. It is real, but I am not sure how to best document it in the return-a question to CPA.
Yes, I can use only $3K per year in "pure" loss in US, but I can subtract this loss from ANY OTHER cap gains I would make...forever (if needed).
Basically, no tax on the first 4.875 mil of gains going forward.
So, if someone was smart and managed to 'substitute' for lost coins in 2014-2015 (like Tim Draper did who lost 30K coins to MtGox, then bought the same amount from marshals), then you can sell a substantial amount and have NO cap gains.

EDIT: Or, maybe I had a 100X65=6.5 mil loss in the above scenario, which is now covered by 25% by a gain? This would be the best read of the situation, of course.
First document 100% loss based on the current value, then apply 25% current value coin value "gain" to it.

[LoyceV]

I am not a tax specialist and in all likelihood this is how it would be taxed, but think of the logic (or maybe the lack of it in our 1040).
Say, I had 100 coins on MtGox (I didn't have any, just a theoretical number).
They are sending me back 25 and telling me that 75 were "lost" due to the business failure.
Let's say, i get the coins today, July 17.
OK, I got the "income" of 25X65 (roughly for simplification)=$1.625 mil
In addition, I also got a claim of a capital loss of 75X65=$4.875 mil. It is real, but I am not sure how to best document it in the return-a question to CPA.

I'm not a tax specialist either, and especially not on US taxes, but shouldn't the capital loss be based on what you paid for it back in the days? You never paid capital gains tax on those 75 Bitcoins, so I'd say the capital loss should be based on what you paid in (say) 2014.

[Biodom]

I am not a tax specialist and in all likelihood this is how it would be taxed, but think of the logic (or maybe the lack of it in our 1040).
Say, I had 100 coins on MtGox (I didn't have any, just a theoretical number).
They are sending me back 25 and telling me that 75 were "lost" due to the business failure.
Let's say, i get the coins today, July 17.
OK, I got the "income" of 25X65 (roughly for simplification)=$1.625 mil
In addition, I also got a claim of a capital loss of 75X65=$4.875 mil. It is real, but I am not sure how to best document it in the return-a question to CPA.

I'm not a tax specialist either, and especially not on US taxes, but shouldn't the capital loss be based on what you paid for it back in the days? You never paid capital gains tax on those 75 Bitcoins, so I'd say the capital loss should be based on what you paid in (say) 2014.

Maybe...and this is the worst read, albeit what you lost is PROPERTY, not $$, right?
You were just informed that 75% of your property is gone, but you can have the 25%-that would be the "best" read, but i am not sure if it is possible to interpret it like this.