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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 3 (4.1%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (1.4%)
$80K to $85K - 2 (2.7%)
$85K to $90K - 8 (11%)
$90K to $95K - 12 (16.4%)
$95K to $100K - 12 (16.4%)
>$100K - 35 (47.9%)
Total Voters: 73

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26496210 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
philipma1957
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August 01, 2024, 10:49:00 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)


The Marines are a department of the Navy...


the men's department.

 Grin

The best part was what I used to hear.

Although we did move 16 long tubes when we sailed from PI to Diego Garcia and those tubes when guarded 24/7 by Eight marines.

we then off loaded them on a Spruance class destroyer. With the Marines always guarding them.

Which is close to Taxi duty.
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August 02, 2024, 01:26:12 AM

stop buddy
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August 02, 2024, 01:29:01 AM

Protip: Some of you guys just need to up your mousie game (also known as baby ratt)
i have a RAT 5 mouse from like a decade ago thats still going. close enough?
That's sick.  Want it.
 

Who can beat a mouse/ratt that lasts for a decade?

[edited out]
yup thats it. mine is black.

if i can clean out all the bits of weed and crusty ramen noodles/dried drool and such maybe ill post a pic lol

The unedited "in the wild" version sounds more interesting.

Bitcoin down $6000.

Back to bearish sentiment.

Bearish sentiment seems a bit much.

New ATH after U.S elections.

I hope that we won't have to wait that long.

Any OG bitcoiner here who didn't see the Bitcoin Conference 2024 Trump pump-and-dump coming from a mile a way should have your head examined by now.

Any short-lived hype or FOMO "news" is exactly that... short-lived. Always has been, always will be.

Only three mechanisms rule Bitcoin's true price discovery/stabilization anymore:

1. Mining hashrate

2. 200-day moving average

3. Having effects (usually front-ran)

(4. And the float, definitely a factor, but ill-measurable)

All others are short term PnD bullshit.

What about exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe / network principles (like those outlined by Trace Mayer)?  I know that your #1 mining hashrate kind of touches upon the matter - but Mayer had outlined 7 different network effects that surely seem to continue ot be building in bitcoin.

Starting to believe that this is not the place for me anymore.

Even off-topics are not fun anymore.

WO turned into a cult with people what they want to hear.

Initial years where great thought.

Interesting way to do a rage quit.

I doubt that anyone is against you or any of your ideas, yet surely you are free to post what you like, even if guys argue against what you post.

One of the problems could be if some of your posts might come off as talking your book or disingenuine, and yeah, I remember some battles during the pandemic days involving you. That off-topicness was not really fun for any of us.  You do what you want, and by the way, there is no need for anyone to welcome you or agree with you for you to post whatever you like and for you to back up your posts or not.

I understand that topics might become boring, so it is possible that you have outgrown "us". or grew away from the thread.. not that there is any exact "us" here anyhow... so it might be you rather than the thread.

Historically, I do recall a lot more trolling on the thread, so sometimes trolling can make a thread more exciting.... but you don't seem to be talking about lack of trolls.

Ultimately it is your choice whether to participate and how... 

Another thing is perhaps: Make the change you want to see... or is it be the change you want to see.

[edited out]
All things considered, feels pretty good being "ignored", guess I'm not a virgin anymore. Wink

Regarding reasons for dump, it seems like the bulk of the MtGox selling is over, which feels positive.

I sometimes forget this thread is more about Bitcoin promotion and holding rather than "Wall Observer BTC/USD", so when finally sitting on some useful information, didn't even realize it was adding to the FUD when sharing it (assuming that's the reason for the "ignore" part). Will try to remember this going forward.

Say what you like.  Who cares?

It does not matter if the rest of us agree with your perspective or not.. ..

Of course, if you are just trolling, then that's another story, you are likely to get backlash, but even if you were a troll, the trolls usually also get away with a certain amount of posting non-substantive and meaningless nonsense.  That does not seem like your historical posts.

I don't make stock calls often, actually only about 4 that I can remember but I'm batting 1000%.

Buy Tesla on IPO
Buy Ford when it dropped below 1 dollar and they refused the Gov bailout
Buy Amd when it went below 1 dollar
Short Intel July 15th.

It takes a man to admit when they were wrong, have a merit. Wink
Wow, that's better than 99% of investors, for sure.
Compare it with my stats:

Bought TSLA after it declined after the IPO, sold few mo later...decided that the story would take too long to fruition...duh!
Bought AAPL in 1997, sold it in 2000 after making 10X
Never bought NVDA
Biggest wins apart from bitcoin were in small biotechs (3x, 5X, even 10X)

Bought bitcoin, though, and still holding...
Perhaps, you don't need many mega-wins and just ONE could be sufficient..at least this is my hope.

But what is your bitcoin buying story.

One version I heard is bought 20 bitcoins in 2015 and then now sitting on them ever since waiting for them to go up to $10 million each.  there were a few variations of it.

I told my story close to a zillion times, so I doubt anyone wants to hear my reiteration of it again... even though some variation of my story is in my bitcoin investment ideas thread.

Check out this interview of VanEck’s CEO talking about Bitcoin being worth $350K on the way to 2.9 million dollars per BTC… Could those be the tops in 2025 and 2029? It seems like that’s the picture that is being painted and the big boys are buying into. BTC being worth millions in 5 years is certainly an exciting prospect. It would be a difficult hodl.

https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1819118012059804080

$350k is ONLY around 5.5x from here and so $2.9 million is only right around 8.3x higher than $350k.. 

And so $2.9 million is ONLY right around 45x from here.

Those do not sound like outrageous numbers - especially if you were to presume that bitcoin still does not have very large levels of adoption at any level, even though there are enthusiastic individuals, institutions and governments, as opposed to few institutions, governements and/or rich/well known individuals were so outwardly positive about bitcoin prior to Saylor getting in and really pushing the case.

Sure there were always some vocal folks in bitcoin, but it never really got traction prior to Saylor's involvement - not that Saylor deserves credit for some dynamics that were likely going to happen whether he got involved in bitcoin and shouted from the rooftops or not.
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August 02, 2024, 02:17:02 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), tiCeR (2), vapourminer (1), psycodad (1)

In the case of the USA, I don't really understand it.
It’s the same as Germany. They have rules and processes setup to deal with confiscated assets. They can’t just decide to keep something if it may go up in value. I imagine it would easier to auction the BTC no matter what and try to pass a bill to begin buying BTC then it would be to just move the confiscated BTC into a reserve fund. Especially when you consider that a lot of that BTC was stolen from actual victims who probably want to fight to get it back (see: Razzlekhan).
Ok didn't know that. And after all we wouldn't know if they have accumulating BTC for a long time. If the US government knows that countries like Russia and Iran and North Korea get into BTC big time, it is hard to imagine that they would not acquire a decent amount of coins over time for themselves without letting the public know. Would they have to let the public know in theory?

Of course if the victims are known or could be identified at some point in the future, then you are perfectly right that they can't just keep those coins for themselves. But my guess would be that that a good amount of those confiscated BTC come from drug dealers. What would the correct legal way then be when someone sold drugs for $10,000 in BTC, gets caught, and in the meantime those BTC increase in total to $100,000 until the case has been settled? Put aside the fact that someone might have to go to jail, but would the drug seller have the right to at least get back some of the value (after paying a penalty)?
For sure, I am also concerned about due process and the obligations of any governments that seize bitcoin, and for sure property and due process rights and even criminal laws are going to vary from country to country.. whether we are referring to a national government that might engage in such prosecution or sometimes it may well be a local government that had engaged in the seizure.. including in the USA property rights tend to be defined by state law.. even though the categories of what laws apply to whom and who's property we are determining (including governmental overreach) can also sometimes become factors.
The right way is definitely to auction it as they would any other seized property or return it to victims. The government should start their stack fresh with no potential claims against it. I saw a bill was just introduced to buy 1,000,000 BTC for the government. Let’s pretend for a second that the government could buy that much BTC and the market could absorb it like a traditional stock market. Using current pricing and expected investment to market cap multiples (x40), that alone would push the price of BTC to $190K. More realistically though, it would moon the price due to lack of supply and additional demand. I don’t think $300K+ is out of the question for next year and this could be the way.

First of all, you are not going to get a change in USA law to cause the bitcoin that it already holds to either become unencumbered or any claims against them to be resolved right away (by executive order or even by congress) since there are due process and property rights clauses in the constitution.

Second, that proposed legislation is not even close to being passed, so you seem to be living in a fantasy if you believe that the US government is going to start buying BTC in order to reach some kind of a "strategic reserve target."  Let the proposed legislation pass and the president sign it first, before you start getting all excited about something that merely has been proposed and it has to get through the senate, house and then past the president's desk.. and then what kinds of dates does it have to become effective (does supposed fantasy law describe if the coin acquisition would be overt or covert or both?).

Don't get me wrong, I am finding it quite interesting and perhaps also bullish that several of the talking points about bitcoin  (and crypto) has changed in the past several months.. yet it still could take a bit of time before actual friendly legislation goes through, even assuming either legislation or executive actions might end up continuing to progress.
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August 02, 2024, 02:37:30 AM
Last edit: August 02, 2024, 02:56:44 AM by Biodom
Merited by El duderino_ (4), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

I don't make stock calls often, actually only about 4 that I can remember but I'm batting 1000%.

Buy Tesla on IPO
Buy Ford when it dropped below 1 dollar and they refused the Gov bailout
Buy Amd when it went below 1 dollar
Short Intel July 15th.

It takes a man to admit when they were wrong, have a merit. Wink
Wow, that's better than 99% of investors, for sure.
Compare it with my stats:

Bought TSLA after it declined after the IPO, sold few mo later...decided that the story would take too long to fruition...duh!
Bought AAPL in 1997, sold it in 2000 after making 10X
Never bought NVDA
Biggest wins apart from bitcoin were in small biotechs (3x, 5X, even 10X)

Bought bitcoin, though, and still holding...
Perhaps, you don't need many mega-wins and just ONE could be sufficient..at least this is my hope.

But what is your bitcoin buying story.

One version I heard is bought 20 bitcoins in 2015 and then now sitting on them ever since waiting for them to go up to $10 million each.  there were a few variations of it.

I told my story close to a zillion times, so I doubt anyone wants to hear my reiteration of it again... even though some variation of my story is in my bitcoin investment ideas thread.


Ah, I did buy some in 2014, 2015 and later...sold some in 2017..not buying now, apart from small sums...the numbers are not really important because I would not disclose despite your teasing and assumptions, but it is true that I am waiting until the sum reaches a certain high number, possibly, after which I would transition to phase 2. It's not going to be the distribution, but, rather, an organization of matters related to bitcoin and my extended family.

That said, it is possible that I wouldn't live to see phase 2 because bitcoin's price needs to be quite high for me to follow through.
Otherwise, I would just make a will or do a trust. Honestly, currently there is no good method of even giving bitcoin to someone because rules and laws regarding this are at a rudimentary level. You are not going to do it by writing a private code on a piece of paper and putting it in a safe at the bank or at the lawyer's office (lol!) and/or giving someone a trezor/ledger. They wouldn't know what to do with it...it takes quite intense learning to get it properly, as we all know.

I think that some people are paradoxically converting btc into btc etfs now because those units are VERY easy to inherit from you or for you to gift.
I wouldn't do it in principle because to me etfs are inferior to bitcoin itself, but I can see others going this route, especially when brokerages would be allowed to take your btc and give you etfs.

EDIT: I am convinced that this conversion would become a reality later. Why? For a simple reason that brokerages would have more opportunities to earn "yield" on your actual bitcoins vs almost lifeless etfs (which are good only for inheritance or limited borrowing against).
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Is Trump trying to encourage me to vote for Harris?

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August 02, 2024, 04:52:19 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

...

First of all, you are not going to get a change in USA law to cause the bitcoin that it already holds to either become unencumbered or any claims against them to be resolved right away (by executive order or even by congress) since there are due process and property rights clauses in the constitution.

Second, that proposed legislation is not even close to being passed, so you seem to be living in a fantasy if you believe that the US government is going to start buying BTC in order to reach some kind of a "strategic reserve target."  Let the proposed legislation pass and the president sign it first, before you start getting all excited about something that merely has been proposed and it has to get through the senate, house and then past the president's desk.. and then what kinds of dates does it have to become effective (does supposed fantasy law describe if the coin acquisition would be overt or covert or both?).

Don't get me wrong, I am finding it quite interesting and perhaps also bullish that several of the talking points about bitcoin  (and crypto) has changed in the past several months.. yet it still could take a bit of time before actual friendly legislation goes through, even assuming either legislation or executive actions might end up continuing to progress.

Ok so if I understand you correctly here, the government could not secretly amass a high amount of BTC without letting the public know or without going through congress? I mean there have been countless of things and measures that have been executed and when the public only found out decades later. I am not so much convinced that the government or an agency close to the government would push the price by passing a bill that 1,000,000 BTC should be bought. That would be stupid. I'd rather assume they have already done it for years and years while sticking to the law that confiscated BTC have to be treated differently. Again my question: is it possible that the US government (or an agency close to it) is already sitting on a million BTC? Or whatever amount, but a significant one?

In my opinion BTC is of such a high geostrategic relevance that I would not find it reasonable to inform the whole world about it when purchases are being made.
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August 02, 2024, 05:51:03 AM
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Starting to believe that this is not the place for me anymore.

Even off-topics are not fun anymore.

WO turned into a cult with people what they want to hear.

Initial years where great thought.

Kind of agree with that as well, you would be missed, here's hoping you will reconsider.

Say what you like.  Who cares?

It does not matter if the rest of us agree with your perspective or not.. ..

Of course, if you are just trolling, then that's another story, you are likely to get backlash, but even if you were a troll, the trolls usually also get away with a certain amount of posting non-substantive and meaningless nonsense.  That does not seem like your historical posts.

Not a troll, and it matters to me what you think because learned a lot from your posts, even if disagreeing at times.

On the subject, I do miss proudhon, he used to balance this thread nicely.
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August 02, 2024, 06:47:21 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Protip: Some of you guys just need to up your mousie game (also known as baby ratt).  
i have a RAT 5 mouse from like a decade ago thats still going. close enough?
That's sick.  Want it.
 

Who can beat a mouse/ratt that lasts for a decade?

I still have two first generation standalone bluetooth Apple trackpads which work fine with their latest Macs, bought in 2013.
One is used for my dayjob.

Much prefer the trackpad over a mouse. I use the pinch and zoom a lot as my eyesight is terrible.
It also just focuses my attention better on whatever I zoom into probably.
I've noticed that web browsers have become more reliable with zoom actually.
If you had a lot of zoomed in tabs, things used to go a bit crazy (no longer able to zoom at all until you restart the browser etc).
Not so much nowadays.
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August 02, 2024, 07:03:47 AM

Let’s pretend…

you seem to be living in a fantasy

I’m glad you’re sticking with me…
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August 02, 2024, 07:27:47 AM

In the case of the USA, I don't really understand it.
It’s the same as Germany. They have rules and processes setup to deal with confiscated assets. They can’t just decide to keep something if it may go up in value. I imagine it would easier to auction the BTC no matter what and try to pass a bill to begin buying BTC then it would be to just move the confiscated BTC into a reserve fund. Especially when you consider that a lot of that BTC was stolen from actual victims who probably want to fight to get it back (see: Razzlekhan).
Ok didn't know that. And after all we wouldn't know if they have accumulating BTC for a long time. If the US government knows that countries like Russia and Iran and North Korea get into BTC big time, it is hard to imagine that they would not acquire a decent amount of coins over time for themselves without letting the public know. Would they have to let the public know in theory?

Of course if the victims are known or could be identified at some point in the future, then you are perfectly right that they can't just keep those coins for themselves. But my guess would be that that a good amount of those confiscated BTC come from drug dealers. What would the correct legal way then be when someone sold drugs for $10,000 in BTC, gets caught, and in the meantime those BTC increase in total to $100,000 until the case has been settled? Put aside the fact that someone might have to go to jail, but would the drug seller have the right to at least get back some of the value (after paying a penalty)?
For sure, I am also concerned about due process and the obligations of any governments that seize bitcoin, and for sure property and due process rights and even criminal laws are going to vary from country to country.. whether we are referring to a national government that might engage in such prosecution or sometimes it may well be a local government that had engaged in the seizure.. including in the USA property rights tend to be defined by state law.. even though the categories of what laws apply to whom and who's property we are determining (including governmental overreach) can also sometimes become factors.
The right way is definitely to auction it as they would any other seized property or return it to victims. The government should start their stack fresh with no potential claims against it. I saw a bill was just introduced to buy 1,000,000 BTC for the government. Let’s pretend for a second that the government could buy that much BTC and the market could absorb it like a traditional stock market. Using current pricing and expected investment to market cap multiples (x40), that alone would push the price of BTC to $190K. More realistically though, it would moon the price due to lack of supply and additional demand. I don’t think $300K+ is out of the question for next year and this could be the way.

First of all, you are not going to get a change in USA law to cause the bitcoin that it already holds to either become unencumbered or any claims against them to be resolved right away (by executive order or even by congress) since there are due process and property rights clauses in the constitution.

Second, that proposed legislation is not even close to being passed, so you seem to be living in a fantasy if you believe that the US government is going to start buying BTC in order to reach some kind of a "strategic reserve target."  Let the proposed legislation pass and the president sign it first, before you start getting all excited about something that merely has been proposed and it has to get through the senate, house and then past the president's desk.. and then what kinds of dates does it have to become effective (does supposed fantasy law describe if the coin acquisition would be overt or covert or both?).

Don't get me wrong, I am finding it quite interesting and perhaps also bullish that several of the talking points about bitcoin  (and crypto) has changed in the past several months.. yet it still could take a bit of time before actual friendly legislation goes through, even assuming either legislation or executive actions might end up continuing to progress.


You are absolutely correct @JJG, I mean this is politics and everything is/can be possible and we shouldn't be so carried away by what the US said concerning Bitcoin perhaps we should be careful and mindful of what we want to believe because I see this... As a strategy for him to get into power, years back same person was kind of criticizing Bitcoin but whatever it is, I hope it doesn't turn to affect us negatively.
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