Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

Congratulations to Imane Khelif for winning another all female Olympics boxing match.

[Biodom]

Right now, it feels that ALL theories about bitcoin price are wrong.

Then, I look at the 200 wma and so far, it is smooth-up and to the right.
Until that changes profoundly, it pays to ride it, imho.

That said, it is starting to feel that we are in an inflationary decade.
If you look at 70-ies, inflation rise was not smooth: there were 2-3 peaks with valleys in between.
https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832

All investments apart from gold were not good during the seventies and stock market in constant dollars declined: see 1968-1982 period-decline from 915 to 369 (60% in 14 years).

https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/5860/inflation-adjusted-sp-500-index-price

Will bitcoin behave like gold in the following 8-10 years or will it correlate more with stocks?
Additionally, how AI will play out? Imho, this could be profoundly deflationary.

Conclusion: no clear path at the moment, but we should plow through, eventually.

[Hueristic]

WTF! went back and located a ton of posts to write a up a jjg post then went to grab the quotes and they all errored.

Session verification failed. Please try logging out and back in again, and then try again.

Motherfucker!

Maybe I'll waste another ten minutes later and try again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Will bitcoin behave like gold in the following 8-10 years or will it correlate more with stocks?
Additionally, how AI will play out? Imho, this could be profoundly deflationary.

Protip:

It is funny (or ironic) to continue to notice that over the yeas, you still don't seem to get bitcoin very well.  In udder wurds, Bitcoin is not very likely to be a mature asset, so it is not very likely to be correlated to either of those two asset classes in the way that you are suggesting that it might be, especially in the next 8-10 years.

WTF! went back and located a ton of posts to write a up a jjg post then went to grab the quotes and they all errored.

Session verification failed. Please try logging out and back in again, and then try again.

Motherfucker!
Maybe I'll waste another ten minutes later and try again.

Refreshing the page (from which you are attempting to link or quote) usually takes care of that kind of a particular error message.

[Hueristic]

Refreshing the page (from which you are attempting to link or quote) usually takes care of that kind of a particular error message.

Nope, even tried to manually add the post reference in a quote that did work and still got the same error.

My bad misread that. I had already closed all the pages I used to locate the posts I needed.

[Biodom]

It is kind of funny how so many bitcoiners worship that dweeb as some kind of a god (and even frequently reinterpret benevolent or well-intentioned or even 5-D chess meanings into his statements), but on the regular he either says a lot of pretty dumb shit or he is so obviously over-the-top when it comes to his narcissism.

Still, after watching Trump's talk at the Bitcoin Conference 2024, even if only a fraction of what he promised would come to pass I think it would be great for Bitcoin, and as a foreigner and holder that means more to me than other issues. Worst case, all of the promises he made are neglected or outvoted, even the fact that he just showed up at the Bitcoin Conference meant something.

--- EDIT: Not related to Trump below. ---

Overall, as inflation increases (with the threat of hyperinflation looming) in current fractional reserve banking system, considering the volume of debt and interest involved for many countries, holding Bitcoin might be the only solution for governments to slow down inflation where BTC has the potential to outperform the interest from debt. I don't know exactly how that Bitcoin financial construct would look like in the end, but either way it's the most bullish proposition I can think of at the moment, guaranteed CCMF to the moon! Think "Fort Knox" with Bitcoin.

To inflation has a very simple  cause. Human demand keeps growing and all the worlds assets don’t grow.

IE. I was 7 in 1964 there were  2.5 billion people. an equal devision of peopl to earth 🌎 gave each person
1 acre of fresh water 12 acres of land and 36 acres of ocean.

in 2024 there are 8.1 billion people giving under ⅓ acres of fresh water under 4 acres of land and under 12 acres of ocean.


this is the driving force of inflation demand grows like mad and resources are constant.

yeah tech (bitcoin ,computers ) can help use the fixed resources better. but they are not making more earth

That doesn't make sense to me.
If demand grows and supplies are constant we should only have deflation, such as the price for a BTC going up massively.

THUS in theory that deflation should be making any currency more valuable.

So if your parents bought a house for $10,000. Now it should be $1,000 right?
IF there were no other forces in play.

Inflation (= money printing) seems to exist exactly to try to ebb all of that
(and it's probably a scam in many ways - but let's not dwell on that now).
However in many cases that does not work and the balance seems to be impossible to get right.

Either governments inflate too much or too little.

And even if the balance appears to be right  (the magical 2% inflation rate you always hear) in many areas other financial, societal and physical instruments
have been invented to make prices go even more crazy for some sectors:

• Red tape with regards to what you could do yesterday but not tomorrow => Now you need a $50,000 dollar EV as an ICE car is not allowed here
• Women can now all work and earn near the same as men so couples can both pay for a mortgage -> Massive increase in house prices
• Cheap debt, you can now get a mortgage 7 times the value of your salary where it used to be 3.
• More access to credit cards and short term loans.
• Mass immigration into certain areas due to the world becoming better connected and everyone seeing the grass is probably greener over there
• Wealthy companies have gained more access to instruments to keep their growth ballooning (have your Iphones made in China), massively
  increasing the difference between super rich and the average Chinese Iphone assembly worker.
• Petro Dollar has made US very rich per capita but it has had negative effects elsewhere, but the strength of this seems to be reducing
• Much of the technology invented over the last 100 years have meant many changes that have led to inflation:
  ease of access of travelling and thus moving between distant countries etc.

That's my take on it any way.

Sure, I agree with some of your assertions that much demand makes prices go boom but I just think there is more to it than just that
(hence my long winded explanation).

We are seeing much of the first world now not actually having enough children to sustain GDP growth (see Japan especially),
so immigration and inflation seem to have been encouraged to try to fix that.

But these are certainly causing other problems that no one thought about much I think.

Personally I reckon there are probably more than enough resources to sustain 15-20 billion people on the planet.
But them all wanting (and allowing them) to live in the same areas is just foolish.

if there are 25 people and they want a house the demand is lower than 81 people that want a house.

since realestate is kind of finite the supply simply can not grow as fast as the demand.

and the goverment prints more money as a badaid to hide the wound caused by faster demand growth than supply growth.


but you say build taller buildings and fit more people in them. yeah that is one way tech can help.


but consider the issue beyond real estate go with biomass of the earth.

it is fixed.

so if humans are 0.001  part of the biomass and the nonhuman part is 0.999

the demand we place on the biomass supply is not much.

if we grow to 0.01 part and the rest is 0.99 the demand is 10x


we now push really fucking hard on the biomass of the world.

Just think of the weight of the food you eat in a year. I eat at least a pound of different foods in a day and I drink at lease .5 gallons of liquids. which weighs 3.5 pounds So I take in 4.5 pounds a day around 1642 pounds a year . I weigh 195 or 8.42 food and drink to 1

this is likely more than the average person.

so make it 5 to 1

the worlds needs to do 5 x 8.1 billion =40.5 billion pounds for food and drink

vs 5 x 2.5 billion = 12.5 billion pounds for food and drink.

this is biomass demand and it is growing every fucking year for a real long time.

This is the reason inflation exists. Printing money simply hides this as you and the two or three that merited you seem to think that inflation is a monetary term. The reality is inflation is the reflection of the human demand curve on the planets biomass. But either way you want to define things inflation will never leave us until you figure out how to alter the humans demand growth on the worlds biomass.

Well, we are MAKING the biomass that we eat..Humans are 34% of global mammal biomass already...livestock and pets-62%, ALL wild mammals-just 4%.
That said, human biomass is "just" 80 mil tonnes of carbon, while plants are 450 bil tonnes or carbon.
We are still a small % of the biomass, but we already dominate animal biomass completely (our bodies+cattle+pets), but the way things are going, it looks like to total number of humans would peak at about 9-10 bil and then decline over 1-2 centuries to maybe 3 bil, according to projections based on birth/death trends (not accounting for diseases, wars, etc).

[Biodom]

Will bitcoin behave like gold in the following 8-10 years or will it correlate more with stocks?
Additionally, how AI will play out? Imho, this could be profoundly deflationary.

Protip:

It is funny (or ironic) to continue to notice that over the yeas, you still don't seem to get bitcoin very well.  In udder wurds, Bitcoin is not very likely to be a mature asset, so it is not very likely to be correlated to either of those two asset classes in the way that you are suggesting that it might be, especially in the next 8-10 years.

The gist of my post was that 200 wma will show the way, but, as always, you look at the minor details.
That said, you cannot say what would and what would not happen either.
Yogi Berra states: "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." 

[Ambatman]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Buddy is $80K too hard to ask for .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Will bitcoin behave like gold in the following 8-10 years or will it correlate more with stocks?
Additionally, how AI will play out? Imho, this could be profoundly deflationary.

Protip:
It is funny (or ironic) to continue to notice that over the yeas, you still don't seem to get bitcoin very well.  In udder wurds, Bitcoin is not very likely to be a mature asset, so it is not very likely to be correlated to either of those two asset classes in the way that you are suggesting that it might be, especially in the next 8-10 years.

The gist of my post was that 200 wma will show the way, but, as always, you look at the minor details.

Yes.  I looked at something you said (asked) and I attempted to focus on responding to that part of what you said (asked). I don't see any problem with my response and I did not quote you out of context or anything like that..

That said, you cannot say what would and what would not happen either.
Yogi Berra states: "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." 

I was not the one making the prediction, and I am not even very much into trying to give too precise of predictions in regards to what I believe might happen.  I was merely responding to what you said... and yeah, my various attempts at predicting the future relates to the 200-WMA too (which are attempts to conservatively be safe with considering bottom rather than top prices, even though there are no guarantees with that, either).. so I didn't see anything controversial about any of your attempts to stay focused on the 200-WMA - even though most of us realize that the 200-WMA is a delayed indicator... so if the 200-WMA ends up shifting from positive to negative, it may well end up being a bit late that any of us might be able to realize "oh shit!!!"

Personally, I consider that even with bitcoin remaining a bullish and positive asset, there may well be some periods in the future in which the 200-WMA ends up negative rather than positive, yet really it is so difficult to know when something like that might end up happening or for how long something like that might endure... and I hope that the mere happening of a negative 200-WMA would not end up meaning the death or demise of bitcoin.

We did have a pretty strong test of the 200-WMA between around June 2022 and October 2023 when the BTC spot price spent a quite a bit of time below the 200-WMA and even reached right around 36% below the 200-WMA for a short period (maybe a day or two) in November 2022... but still during much of that time, the 200-WMA still continued to go up right around 20% on an annualized basis for those 16-18-months-ish, which many times during that period resulted in the 200-WMA continuing to go up around $10 per day during that time period. 

Sure the current BTC price is higher than it was in late 2023, and even the current 200-WMA is more than 30% higher than it was in late 2023, but still the 200-WMA is currently going up around $36 to $44 per day in the past 8-ish months.. and so it would take a bit of time for the 200-WMA to go negative rather than remaining positive, even if BTC spot price were below the 200-WMA for a considerable amounts of time.  You can see the actual historical BTC spot prices versus the 200-WMA at: https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

[BitcoinBunny]

O/T

Only 4 weeks into the Labour government and England is already falling apart.
Congrats Keir Starmer.
Absolutely terrible speech on Thursday.

 

[philipma1957]

get your cheap corn we are under 60k

I got some at 59.9k

[Biodom]

OT: A couple of interesting links about the 'mind's eye' and some out of the ordinary visual perception.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-happens-in-a-mind-that-cant-see-mental-images-20240801/

TL;DR Human perception is a spectrum from aphantasia to hyperphantasia. Interestingly, people with either are well adapted to environment. How come?

https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/how-a-rare-disorder-makes-people-see-monsters

TL;DR Not sure if you would not encounter a paywall, but i didn't. This is a rarer condition and is more difficult to adapt to.

[OutOfMemory]

O/T

Only 4 weeks into the Labour government and England is already falling apart.
Congrats Keir Starmer.
Absolutely terrible speech on Thursday.

 

Why, thank clown Boris Johnson (or the voters) then, who started to make UK politics an absolute joke.
Monty Python couln't have done it better. Now swallow the bill.
Sorry.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[psycodad]

Refreshing the page (from which you are attempting to link or quote) usually takes care of that kind of a particular error message.

Nope, even tried to manually add the post reference in a quote that did work and still got the same error.

My bad misread that. I had already closed all the pages I used to locate the posts I needed.

The Text Area Cache plugin for Mozilla (seems it is available to other browser too meanwhile) saved my ass numerous times when editing large texts in the browser and experiencing the gifts of wonderful modern computing..(a.k.a crashed, timed out, login again first, cleaning lady tripped over an important cord, server not responding and whatnot)..

-> https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/textarea-cache/
-> https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/textarea-cache/chpphekfimlabghbdankokcohcmnbmab
-> https://microsoftedge.microsoft.com/addons/detail/textarea-cache/fpgnojhegiecfddikicbnlpamggflbln

HTH

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Refreshing the page (from which you are attempting to link or quote) usually takes care of that kind of a particular error message.

Nope, even tried to manually add the post reference in a quote that did work and still got the same error.

My bad misread that. I had already closed all the pages I used to locate the posts I needed.

The Text Area Cache plugin for Mozilla (seems it is available to other browser too meanwhile) saved my ass numerous times when editing large texts in the browser and experiencing the gifts of wonderful modern computing..(a.k.a crashed, timed out, login again first, cleaning lady tripped over an important cord, server not responding and whatnot)..

-> https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/textarea-cache/
-> https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/textarea-cache/chpphekfimlabghbdankokcohcmnbmab
-> https://microsoftedge.microsoft.com/addons/detail/textarea-cache/fpgnojhegiecfddikicbnlpamggflbln

HTH

I'll check it out, I used to use session manager but stopped for some reason I can't remember.

thx @dude for taking care of him for me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com