Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

And yet somehow, miraculously, "jobless claims fall".
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/08/weekly-jobless-claims-fall-to-233000-less-than-expected-in-a-positive-sign-for-labor-market.html

Everyone should know by now (I assume you do) that jobless numbers are heavily gamed. Particularly, if you've been unemployed for a while, you become categorized as long-term-unemployed and no longer count in the numbers. The number to look at is the labor participation rate which is up but still hasn't fully recovered from the lockdowns.

[Richy_T]

Walk into any cafe in America and ask for a double cappuccino and you will almost certainly be asked "Small, medium, or large?"

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0deaskGSuA

I should see that movie sometime.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

in one of the realities, the recent dump could serve as the perfect preparation for a 10k god candle straight to 70k

im checking realities as fast as i can but i only have so much acid

[Phil_S]

49.5k + 10k = 59.5k

 

[goldkingcoiner]

in one of the realities, the recent dump could serve as the perfect preparation for a 10k god candle straight to 70k

im checking realities as fast as i can but i only have so much acid

You are only travelling between realitys of the same dimension. Put a layer of DMT into a doob of sweet skunk, watch a Sabine Hossenfelder video and let the elves explain superdeterminism and how it solves "spooky action at a distance". You will either feel amazed at life and the universe or get a crippling feeling of existential dread.

[philipma1957]

well some rally action. Maybe we go over 60k.

[Torque]

And yet somehow, miraculously, "jobless claims fall".
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/08/weekly-jobless-claims-fall-to-233000-less-than-expected-in-a-positive-sign-for-labor-market.html

Everyone should know by now (I assume you do) that jobless numbers are heavily gamed. Particularly, if you've been unemployed for a while, you become categorized as long-term-unemployed and no longer count in the numbers.

Agreed.

The number to look at is the labor participation rate which is up but still hasn't fully recovered from the lockdowns.

But even the labor participation rate alone cannot be trusted anymore to tell the real story. Because losing a single white collar working making $100k+/year permanently, but replacing them with two full time (or worse, part time) blue collar workers @ $35k/year each is still major economic loss of purchasing power, even if the participation rate number increases. Not to mention the loss of income tax the IRS can collect.

[Torque]

never drink any coffee in America at any cafe except black americano no cream no sugar.

No one anywhere in USA makes really good coffee.

My coffee water in house is sediment filtered/ then reverse osmosis/ then distilled.

My beans are fresh ground.

I like old school percolator then cloth filter into stainless steel 2 liter (yeah I know what a liter is)

This is a days worth I use this thermos

https://thermos.com/products/stainless-king-beverage-bottle-2-0-l?variant=40161000980636#


I drink coffee from 8am to 4pm


black no sugar.


sometimes a spoon of whip cream.


If I make expresso it must have some booze in it. And cups are always small around 4 maybe 5 oz.

Same here, with one exception: drip coffee absolutely sucks, even with the best fresh ground beans and filtered water.

My weapon of choice is the Philips 4347/94 Espresso Machine. Designed by Italian engineers.

Makes amazing regular coffee.

Worth. Every. Single. Penny. Paid.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

49.5k + 10k = 59.5k

 

The 10k god candle after the previous few smaller ones
I think he meant

[Ambatman]

What a rally!!!
We almost having a comeback just a little push.
I'm already having a good feeling over next Week.

Bitcoin mining has been legalized in Russia, I believe this might serve as a precedence for other countries that had banned mining.
 https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/putin-signs-law-legalizing-cryptocurrency-mining-in-russia

In another news
US policy group proposes Bitcoin tax-free zone for digital economy growth
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tax-free-zone-us-economic-dominance


And my favorite
Small holders of Bitcoin hit a new high despite the previous drop.
https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-addresses-of-small-holders-hit-new-highs-despite-drop/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Good day for Bitcoin so far, currently sitting at $59,500. We’re $10,000 up from the bottom in that pretty shocking dump.

I’d like to think there’s no more FUD and real world events that crash the price coming up. I’m hoping we break $60,000 over the next few days and then it’s like the correction didn’t really happen.

Rate cutting cycle starting in September, hopefully Trump wins in November and then all bets are off, destination Valhalla.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

You are only travelling between realitys of the same dimension.
Put a layer of DMT into a doob of sweet skunk

Agreed, DMT is nothing like acid.



A different ball game
Three tokes into hyperspace
Changa for the win






#haiku

[Gachapin]

49.5k + 10k = 59.5k

 

I mean a daily candle.. up.     we recently had one daily (almost) 10k down, aka a devils candle  

[Richy_T]

But even the labor participation rate alone cannot be trusted anymore to tell the real story. Because losing a single white collar working making $100k+/year permanently, but replacing them with two full time (or worse, part time) blue collar workers @ $35k/year each is still major economic loss of purchasing power, even if the participation rate number increases. Not to mention the loss of income tax the IRS can collect.

Absolutely. There's an appropriate maxim (that doesn't spring to mind) about what you measure becomes the target. So buying dead rats encourages rat breeding, prioritizing crime statistics can lead to discouraging reporting crime and god only knows what the focus on GDP does. Always worth looking below the surface.

(Edit: Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure")

Same here, with one exception: drip coffee absolutely sucks, even with the best fresh ground beans and filtered water.

My weapon of choice is the Philips 4347/94 Espresso Machine. Designed by Italian engineers.

Makes amazing regular coffee.

Worth. Every. Single. Penny. Paid.

Agreed. I have one (one of the 3 series, I believe) I treated myself to a year ago and it's fantastic. Great coffee and less waste and it will have paid for itself over the pods I was buying by 2025. The only negative is the cleaning regimen and it's not really that bad.

[AlcoHoDL]

I never 'use' anything...don't want to mess with my brain.
Maybe I am missing out, but it is what it is, sorry to be a bit squarish  .

[...]

I stand rapt in awe,
Of the wonders of the world,
Where drugs have no place!

#replyku1

Here is some speculation:

Our mini-crash this time was from 70K to 49.6K, roughly, which is 28.6% (some reported it as 27.5%).
In March 2020 the "main" crash was 50% in a day or so.

Therefore, the severity of this crashola so far was 28.6/50=0.572X
Assuming no more crashes, what does it say about the ensuing bull?
In 2020-21, we moved from 3.8K to 68.9K - a 18.13X.

Multiplying 18.13 by a reduced severity factor of 0.572 and assuming that the "bounce" is proportional to the "crash" gives us a 10.37X multiplier (18.13X0.572=10.37) for a maximum bull during this cycle.

If we apply 10.37X to the 49.6K low, it gives us a $514.4K maximum price during this cycle (more than I personally thought possible).
It's $467.66K if using 27.5% decline for the calculation.

TL;DR just dubious speculation as B. Cowen calls it.

Half a mil. next year?
Who could disagree with that?
Will proudhon concur?

#replyku2