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November 01, 2024, 11:49:25 AM *
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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (9.1%)
8/4 - 16 (13.2%)
8/11 - 7 (5.8%)
8/18 - 6 (5%)
8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 72 (59.5%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26484451 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


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August 21, 2024, 09:44:16 PM
Merited by Greyhats (1)

[edited out]
Its a nice feeling getting there a bit earlier, I have a pretty good plan from now until end of the year. Will re-asses again closer to Dec as I plan out next year. The over accumulation though gives me some buffer, the one decision I need to make though is whether i transition to maintenance or keep accumulating. I haven't quite got there yet, but I am thinking about it.

Likely it would be somewhat safer to consider these phases in terms of some kind of a spectrum, so surely when you are in your earliest stages of BTC accumulation you would likely be strict and aggressive so long as you have other aspects of your cash management in a relatively strong status.  So within the transition to maintenance you become less and less intense in regards to how you accumulate, and maybe at some point you are ONLY accumulating on dips rather than accumulating all of the time (such as every week). 

Surely the lines are not exactly clear, and so you might start to think of yourself as still accumulating but more opportunistically, and maybe you are still spending a decent amount of your income on accumulating bitcoin, but you are feeling a bit less rushed about it.

For example, rather than buying every week, you might hold the money that you would have usually been using to buy bitcoin until the end of the month and sure along the way if there are any meaningful dips or you perceive the BTC price to be in a low area, you might buy a few times before the end of the month, but then you might go through the whole month without buying.. so then at the end of the month, you have a balance that would have historically been used to buy bitcoin, and then decide if you are going to roll that amount over into the next month or allocate it for something else (investing in something else or consumption), and it could take several months or even several years to completely discontinue accumulating more (or discontinue adding money from your cashflow to buy more bitcoin), yet you should be able to figure out some systems that allow you to be comfortable with the process  or the kinds of conditions in which you might add more outside money into your bitcoin versus just letting it maintain itself, whether you start to have sales in there or not.. surely the more that you over-allocate, then the more comfortable you should be able to become to release some coins now and then... I sometimes still have some problems with shaving some off, since I will become tempted to do spend and replace with my sales, even if maybe I might not replace as quickly as I used to do historical, but instead I will just put the replacement amount as some kind of a dip price (adding the amounts to my buy on the way down kind of BTC buy orders).

I could imagine that some folks want to spend a certain amount of time overallocating before they even become comfortable selling any BTC, so there may be times in which you are accumulating regularly and then you go to more sporadic accumulation and then maybe you go to some kind of a state that you are just waiting it out, you are not really accumulating any more and you are not selling any either (maybe spend and replace if you do), so some of your abilities to accomplish these matters might depend on your other cashflows, and surely if you start to feel that your BTC stash is large enough, you may well purposefully decide to discontinue some of your cashflow sources...so then maybe at that point some of the expectations would be that you might use some of your bitcoin or perhaps you have some other sources of assets or income that you would draw from first by activating them... Gresham's law would suggest to spend from other sources prior to starting to draw from your bitcoin and also the more than your bitcoin sits without you drawing from it, then it should be in a position to tolerate higher and higher levels of withdrawal whether you make such withdrawals in a price based approach or in a time-based approach.

Tentative timeline to make a decision is to overaccumulate to end of 2025, then during my Dec 2025 planning transition. As of now though I could easily talk myself into starting another accumulation phase post 2025, but we will see what happens.

It seems a good practice to have a few scenarios in mind, and of course, it is difficult to know specifically where you might be in terms of both bitcoin price and whatever you accumulated even though it sounds like you have some pretty decent ballpark ideas.

Whenever choppiness comes up in the price, I always go back to the 200 WMA and go are we uppity,downity or matchity to it so there is some comfort here at the moment with 34k 200 wma vs 56-62k short -term range we are in now.
I am not sure where you are finding your 200-WMA, but all the places I see the 200-WMA, it is just above $38k, currently. 
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Surely we should be able to have some reliance on the 200-WMA as a kind of bottom.. even though surely we know that it can be broken through from time to time, and we still have to witness more time with the BTC price staying close to it for longer periods of time in the future if the BTC price might start to go up slower or less fast (maybe bitcoin getting out of its earliest stages of adoption and the price slope becoming less steep with the passage of time), and through bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA has continued to go up and BTC's spot price has tended to mostly stay above it, even tending to be more than 50% above it as it is right now right in that price territory...
My bad I typo'd that WMA #, I was thinking of the number but my kb fingers decided an alternative one. Ultimately for me personally the WMA is  a nice barometer, not just as a bottom indicator but as strength in the market. Next 6 months should see an increase in the rate of change w/w  in WMA as per the 4 yr cycle, so thats something I'm watching week to week. Whether it does, or slow down or whatever happens, will be using that data for decision making when the time comes.

Surely the barometer idea also makes sense.

@Greyhats: Immediately stop your BTC accumulations!!!!!, and don't go into an overaccumulation status.. it is not worth it.. Ask Phil.. He knows everything (or almost everything.. that's why you probably already have more BTC than him..., which should be the opposite. hahahahahahaha).
Oh noooooesssss what will i do!  Grin

I had been thinking that I should have had said that "this is investment advice" even though it started with Phil.. I was the one repeating it.. so I should take some credit.. I know that some times guys get mad at me when I fail/refuse to put the lol in there or the Jk.. .. so each of us has to figure out how are we going to balance our investment portfolios or our bitcoin allocations based on all the available information, whether correct or incorrect and we also have to figure out the "seriously?" part.

Biodom
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August 21, 2024, 09:49:54 PM

According to rumors, treasury (in US) is preparing to re-characterize bitcoin from "property" to "currency", apparently.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-federal-agencies-redefine-money-cryptocurrency-reporting

Bitcoin is one of the few things where it is defined differently by each three letter agency (in US).
I am not sure if if would mean anything from a practical point of view.
Thoughts?
xhomerx10
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August 21, 2024, 09:55:14 PM
Last edit: August 22, 2024, 01:13:20 AM by xhomerx10


 OMG!  She's Trump with more hair and bigger teeth.  Ca Me La!  Ca Me La! Ca Me La!

edit: So excited I forgot the image.
JayJuanGee
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August 21, 2024, 09:58:33 PM

According to rumors, treasury (in US) is preparing to re-characterize bitcoin from "property" to "currency", apparently.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-federal-agencies-redefine-money-cryptocurrency-reporting
Bitcoin is one of the few things where it is defined differently by each three letter agency (in US).
I am not sure if if would mean anything from a practical point of view.
Thoughts?

It seems that it would be good to me.. almost on the road to legal tender.. or recognizing that another country  (or perhaps other countries) have already recognized bitcoin as a currency, so in that regard no capital gains tax... and way less burdensome acco unting.

As far as KYC and AML, I am not sure whether or how that would be affected, but it does seems that just taking the capital gains (or motives around capital gains reporting) would be a step in the right direction in order to remove quite a few of bitcoin's current transactability obstacles.

Sure, there could be choices and/or attempts to be draconian in other ways such as having to report ownings (holdings), but it seems way less justifiable to pass any laws to require the reporting of holdings if the asset is recognized as a currency... but yeah don't put it past desperate governments to NOT engage in contradictory behaviors.


OMG!  She's Trump with more hair and bigger teeth.  Ca Me La!  Ca Me La! Ca Me La!

I see that Homer's in love!!!!

Maybe you should consider "calming down" a wee bit?  


You should already realize that we (royal perhaps?) strive to not become too emotional in this thread,


right?




right?



rrrrrrrriiiiigggggggghhhhtttt?


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Ambatman
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August 21, 2024, 10:01:51 PM

61.7k

Feels good.
Would be better if it just divorce the 50's on move on without looking back.



Breaking out of this Symmetrical triangle would be bottomless pit for the bear.
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August 21, 2024, 10:13:53 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitcoinPsycho (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

About the latest pop: shorters covering just before getting wiped out a little above 61? If so, and if she keeps going up, I'm expecting a string of liquidations around 62+ too. Keeping fingers crossed. I will celebrate their dead margin with a small poem.


Sure you can watch porn
If you feel a bit forlorn
But don't short the corn(TM)



#haiku
#rhyming_haiku
AlcoHoDL
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Addicted to HoDLing!


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August 21, 2024, 10:18:04 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)



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August 21, 2024, 10:18:59 PM

[...]

Sure you can watch porn
If you feel a bit forlorn
But don't short the corn(TM)

#haiku
#rhyming_haiku


Excellent!
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August 21, 2024, 11:56:44 PM

Is it also possible that the bitcoin somehow goes to zero someday? Like how it could even possible?

Fu***king Question ❓
 Bitcoin is the most valuable asset at present. This Bitcoin is ruling the whole world, this Bitcoin will be a valuable asset to every person. 
Maybe I you will die but Bitcoin will live.
xhomerx10
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August 22, 2024, 01:25:44 AM

~snip


OMG!  She's Trump with more hair and bigger teeth.  Ca Me La!  Ca Me La! Ca Me La!

I see that Homer's in love!!!!

Maybe you should consider "calming down" a wee bit?  


You should already realize that we (royal perhaps?) strive to not become too emotional in this thread,


right?




right?



rrrrrrrriiiiigggggggghhhhtttt?


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

 It was the image of a bitcoin that got me excited and I guess I forgot that Harris already had 3.5 years to "back measures to help bitcoin grow" and actually did the opposite as part of the Biden administration.  I'm pretty sure her next move is to say she'll fire Gensler on day 1 if elected...   
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August 22, 2024, 01:28:57 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Is it also possible that the bitcoin somehow goes to zero someday? Like how it could even possible?

It will go to zero but hopefull that is in the:

" Year 2525 if man has still survived"

Yeager and Evans I think.
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August 22, 2024, 01:56:09 AM

Is it also possible that the bitcoin somehow goes to zero someday? Like how it could even possible?

It will go to zero but hopefull that is in the:

" Year 2525 if man has still survived"

Yeager and Evans I think.

 So you don't think our robot overlords are going to be into bitcoin once they eliminate us?
nutildah
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August 22, 2024, 04:02:27 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I came here specifically to check the price of corm only to see ChartBuddy stopped 11 hours ago. Is it a sign that we're never going below $60k again?

So you don't think our robot overlords are going to be into bitcoin once they eliminate us?



The tiny dude standing next to the PoS terminal is a hologram. It turns out that even though robots destroyed humanity, they still like their instructional videos to feature holograms of humans. "Now just enter the amount to be paid here."
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August 22, 2024, 04:07:14 AM
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 OMG!  She's Trump with more hair and bigger teeth.  Ca Me La!  Ca Me La! Ca Me La

We think we've got it bad with Justin Sinclair? (Sorry, he doesn't deserve his father's name. He takes more after his airhead bimbo mother.)

Trump vs Kamala is so much worse.

Democracy? Lawl.
philipma1957
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August 22, 2024, 04:49:32 AM

Is it also possible that the bitcoin somehow goes to zero someday? Like how it could even possible?

It will go to zero but hopefull that is in the:

" Year 2525 if man has still survived"

Yeager and Evans I think.

 So you don't think our robot overlords are going to be into bitcoin once they eliminate us?


No they will be trying to understand why we liked food and sex things like that.
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bitcoin retard


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August 22, 2024, 07:31:14 AM
Merited by Lucius (1)


 OMG!  She's Trump with more hair and bigger teeth.  Ca Me La!  Ca Me La! Ca Me La

We think we've got it bad with Justin Sinclair? (Sorry, he doesn't deserve his father's name. He takes more after his airhead bimbo mother.)

Trump vs Kamala is so much worse.

Democracy? Lawl.

nothing to worry about...

"Those who make the decisions are not elected, and those who are elected have no power to decide."
Former German Minister of the Interior, Seehofer
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August 22, 2024, 10:15:39 AM

The 3 rule of bitcoin:

1st rule: don't sell your bitcoin,
2nd rule: buy the dip and hold,
3rd rule: follow the 1st and 2nd rule deeply.


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August 22, 2024, 10:16:39 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), sirazimuth (1)

nothing to worry about...

"Those who make the decisions are not elected, and those who are elected have no power to decide."
Former German Minister of the Interior, Seehofer

It's hard to find an honest politician, this one is perhaps one of the few on that list, or he just had a moment of weakness in which he admitted what we all know. Politicians are just pawns on a chessboard, and those who play the game move them according to their wishes.

People who believe that one candidate is better than the other when it comes to Bitcoin are seriously delusional. The facts are that about 50% of Americans want one, and the other 50% want another candidate - while the majority of people in the EU, including politicians, do not want Donald, neither China nor Ukraine want him. On the other hand, Hungary, Russia and North Korea have a very good opinion of him - in any case, a very "nice company".

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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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August 22, 2024, 10:37:13 AM




The tiny dude standing next to the PoS terminal is a hologram. It turns out that even though robots destroyed humanity, they still like their instructional videos to feature holograms of humans. "Now just enter the amount to be paid here."

holo-dude should look like bill gates
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$120000 in 2024 Confirmed


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August 22, 2024, 10:50:16 AM

Daily analysis



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