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Its a nice feeling getting there a bit earlier, I have a pretty good plan from now until end of the year. Will re-asses again closer to Dec as I plan out next year. The over accumulation though gives me some buffer, the one decision I need to make though is whether i transition to maintenance or keep accumulating. I haven't quite got there yet, but I am thinking about it.
Likely it would be somewhat safer to consider these phases in terms of some kind of a spectrum, so surely when you are in your earliest stages of BTC accumulation you would likely be strict and aggressive so long as you have other aspects of your cash management in a relatively strong status. So within the transition to maintenance you become less and less intense in regards to how you accumulate, and maybe at some point you are ONLY accumulating on dips rather than accumulating all of the time (such as every week).
Surely the lines are not exactly clear, and so you might start to think of yourself as still accumulating but more opportunistically, and maybe you are still spending a decent amount of your income on accumulating bitcoin, but you are feeling a bit less rushed about it.
For example, rather than buying every week, you might hold the money that you would have usually been using to buy bitcoin until the end of the month and sure along the way if there are any meaningful dips or you perceive the BTC price to be in a low area, you might buy a few times before the end of the month, but then you might go through the whole month without buying.. so then at the end of the month, you have a balance that would have historically been used to buy bitcoin, and then decide if you are going to roll that amount over into the next month or allocate it for something else (investing in something else or consumption), and it could take several months or even several years to completely discontinue accumulating more (or discontinue adding money from your cashflow to buy more bitcoin), yet you should be able to figure out some systems that allow you to be comfortable with the process or the kinds of conditions in which you might add more outside money into your bitcoin versus just letting it maintain itself, whether you start to have sales in there or not.. surely the more that you over-allocate, then the more comfortable you should be able to become to release some coins now and then... I sometimes still have some problems with shaving some off, since I will become tempted to do spend and replace with my sales, even if maybe I might not replace as quickly as I used to do historical, but instead I will just put the replacement amount as some kind of a dip price (adding the amounts to my buy on the way down kind of BTC buy orders).
I could imagine that some folks want to spend a certain amount of time overallocating before they even become comfortable selling any BTC, so there may be times in which you are accumulating regularly and then you go to more sporadic accumulation and then maybe you go to some kind of a state that you are just waiting it out, you are not really accumulating any more and you are not selling any either (maybe spend and replace if you do), so some of your abilities to accomplish these matters might depend on your other cashflows, and surely if you start to feel that your BTC stash is large enough, you may well purposefully decide to discontinue some of your cashflow sources...so then maybe at that point some of the expectations would be that you might use some of your bitcoin or perhaps you have some other sources of assets or income that you would draw from first by activating them... Gresham's law would suggest to spend from other sources prior to starting to draw from your bitcoin and also the more than your bitcoin sits without you drawing from it, then it should be in a position to tolerate higher and higher levels of withdrawal whether you make such withdrawals in a price based approach or in a time-based approach.
Tentative timeline to make a decision is to overaccumulate to end of 2025, then during my Dec 2025 planning transition. As of now though I could easily talk myself into starting another accumulation phase post 2025, but we will see what happens.
It seems a good practice to have a few scenarios in mind, and of course, it is difficult to know specifically where you might be in terms of both bitcoin price and whatever you accumulated even though it sounds like you have some pretty decent ballpark ideas.
Whenever choppiness comes up in the price, I always go back to the 200 WMA and go are we uppity,downity or matchity to it so there is some comfort here at the moment with 34k 200 wma vs 56-62k short -term range we are in now.
I am not sure where you are finding your 200-WMA, but all the places I see the 200-WMA, it is just above $38k, currently.
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategySurely we should be able to have some reliance on the 200-WMA as a kind of bottom.. even though surely we know that it can be broken through from time to time, and we still have to witness more time with the BTC price staying close to it for longer periods of time in the future if the BTC price might start to go up slower or less fast (maybe bitcoin getting out of its earliest stages of adoption and the price slope becoming less steep with the passage of time), and through bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA has continued to go up and BTC's spot price has tended to mostly stay above it, even tending to be more than 50% above it as it is right now right in that price territory...
My bad I typo'd that WMA #, I was thinking of the number but my kb fingers decided an alternative one. Ultimately for me personally the WMA is a nice barometer, not just as a bottom indicator but as strength in the market. Next 6 months should see an increase in the rate of change w/w in WMA as per the 4 yr cycle, so thats something I'm watching week to week. Whether it does, or slow down or whatever happens, will be using that data for decision making when the time comes.
Surely the barometer idea also makes sense.
@Greyhats: Immediately stop your BTC accumulations!!!!!, and don't go into an overaccumulation status.. it is not worth it.. Ask Phil.. He knows everything (or almost everything.. that's why you probably already have more BTC than him..., which should be the opposite. hahahahahahaha).
Oh noooooesssss what will i do!
I had been thinking that I should have had said that "this is investment advice" even though it started with Phil.. I was the one repeating it.. so I should take some credit.. I know that some times guys get mad at me when I fail/refuse to put the lol in there or the Jk.. .. so each of us has to figure out how are we going to balance our investment portfolios or our bitcoin allocations based on all the available information, whether correct or incorrect and we also have to figure out the "seriously?" part.
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