Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

First I am not a gold fan.

For sure, I was not exactly suggesting that you were a fan of gold, but just that your framing was a bit looney, but what else is new?

and as for eating lunch last 15 years.

Now that I see where you are going with this, I feel a bit regretful by suggesting bitcoin's birth as a fair starting point, so starting close to zero value in terms of bitcoin not even really having a price in the very beginning is a bit of an unfair advantage for bitcoin.

It might be more fair to choose something like the start of 2012 and something like $5 as bitcoin's starting value (price) (so yeah instead of 15.5-ish years, we would just use something like 12.5-ish years), which would then give bitcoin a starting market cap of somewhere in the $105 million territory if we would be using 21 million as bitcoin's known supply into the future, even though right around mid-to-late 2012 half of bitcoin's total supply would have had come available by the time the first halvening took place..so ONLY around 10.5 million bitcoin would have had been actually issued, so bitcoin's starting market cap would have had been somewhere around $50 million-ish

lets look into 2009 to 2024 marketcaps

jan 2009 btc lets say 1,000 usd at less than 1 penny a coin
aug 2024 btc lets say 1,200,000,000,000 usd at 60,000 a coin

so 1000 to 1.2 trillion in ratio is great but in total value it gained 1.2 trillion

what was gold in jan 2009 822 price about  5.6 trillion with an estimated range of 4.3 trillion to 6.5 trillion

I would say at least your going with market cap comparisons, but then your presentation is a bit confusing.

Maybe if we suggest bitcoin's market cap is in the ballpark of $50 million in early 2012 and I might be willing to concede that gold's market cap might have been in the $4.3 to $6.5 trillion range..  (let's just go with $5 trillion), so yeah, such a starting point would put bitcoin's market cap would have had been right around 1/10 million the size of gold's market cap (remove 6 zeros from each of the market caps).

was was gold in august 2024 2519 price cap of 17.2 trillion with a estimated range of 13.6t to 20.4t

so yeah btc went up from a cap of 1000 usd to 1.2 trillion in 15 years.

and gold went up from 4.3 / 6.5 trillion to 13.6t/20.4t

so yeah price wise btc was a penny  and gold was 822 usd in 2009

and at 60,000 to 2,500 price wise btc whaled smoked crushed gold.

Even though your presentation is confusing, we are likely in a similar territory since I am suggesting that now bitcoin's market cap is right around 1/15th the size of gold's market cap when historically (starting from January 2012) bitcoin's market cap was somewhere between 1/10 millionth the size of gold's market cap.

but total value gold gained far more maybe 9trillion to 1trillion.

My first reaction was that I was going to call you the "R" word while throwing in a few curses, yet I am going to try to refrain a wee bit, since I can be nice like that sometimes.

Anyhow, if you are saying that bitcoin ONLY went up in value by $1 trillion (which technically it would be about 1.1999995 trillion (since bitcoin started with ONLY about $50 million of market cap) and gold's market cap went up somewhere between $9 trillion and $11 trillion (let's just say it went up $10million) , so therefore, gold went up more in value than bitcoin, and I am going to have to retract my temporary niceness for just a moment and call you fucking retarded.  That is largely an irrelevant way to be framing and hinging your argument on nominal increases in value rather than percentage increases in value... but hey, whatever, you can do what you like in terms of your coming up with such largely irrelevant and nonsensical framing and even arguing such a point as if you were actually saying something meaningful and important...

Ok.. let me cool down for just a second and concede that even though you are technically correct that bitcoin's market cap ONLY went up just shy of $1.2 trillion and gold's market cap went up in the territory of $10 trillion, but still bitcoin started from nearly zero (which was around $50 million if we use the start of 2012 as our starting point and gold started out at around $5 trillion in early 2012).

and gold will not lose value if mining stops
while btc will lose value if mining stops.

Another pie in the sky imaginary piece of evidence that might be technically true, but still fantasy land framing for some pie in the sky scenarios to play out...   Yeah, sure, any investment thesis should attempt to account for fringe possibilities, yet you are wanting to considerably denigrate bitcoin's value proposition based on fringe possibilities that largely ONLY are being argued by you (I haven't seen anyone else arguing that point, so you are seeming to be unique in that level of presumption of both Armageddon but also presuming that bitcoin mining would stop from such an outlier scenario).

So we can brag and love our btc .  and I hold a good amount of it. but don't think gold is losing in terms of market cap it is still gaining every year.

You can believe what you like, even while your little fantasy gold ends up getting passed up by bitcoin, whether it is this cycle or the next cycle or sometime later down the road, it is not very difficult for bitcoin to reach parity with gold's market cap and then to thereafter to pass it up, even though there can be no real guarantee (or concrete assurances) proclaimed as to when it is going to happen, even though bitcoin's market cap parity with gold surely is within reach for even this cycle.

Otherwise, I stick with my original conclusions that bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch, is currently eating gold's lunch and likely to continue to eat gold's lunch into the future until such time as some kind of more representative value comparison starts to play out in the market in which bitcoin will likely come close to 1,000x or more of gold's market cap, even though there could be rough patches along the way in getting there, whether it is from bitcoin going up in value or gold coming down in value or a combination of the two, and including that it could take 50-200 or more years for such more representative prices based on value play out in the market.

[edited out]

so the gold in cap did 12 trillion gain
the btc in cap did 1.2 trillion gain..

so in my measurement gold out preformed btc 10 to 1 in last 15 years.

yeah i know that people will say btc was say 1 penny and gold was 822 in 2009

so 1 penny to 60k crushes 822 to 2500 true it does.

but 1.2 trillon gain loses bigly to a 12 trillion gain.

just saying both things are fully true.

Oh wow.. You seem to be arguing your points as if you really believe them.    Both things are factually true, but they don't hold the same amount of persuasive logic in terms of how you are wanting to use them for predictive power, even though you are free to assign whatever level of weight and persuasive power to your nearly retarded points as you would like. #nohomo

btw i have far far far far more btc than gold.

i hold

btc
silver

Your points are still dumb
and almost embarrassingly silly
no matter which assets/currencies you hold.

well I can go back to longer term thinking. The biopsy of my prostate all 14 cores were benign.

Great.

i can go back to calling you a retard now, without feeling guilty about it (hopefully, Gachapin does not get mad at me for calling you that).

Long live philipma1957!!!!

Having lost a lot of relatives to prostate cancer and getting a high PSA test requires get the biopsy.

Which literally is a P.I.T.A. I was fairly terrified that some or a lot of the cores would turn out to be cancer.

They all were clean. So I just have to do PSA tests three times a year. Which is better then cancer.

Your shit is clean then.  (or maybe I should say "your junk.")

Still hoping to beat the family record of 93 for males. Then get to 105 so I can give the btc away to JJG

I would like that too.. but geez Louise, February (or whatever month it is) of 2062 seems like such a long way off.. .. that is nearly 37.5 years.  It would be a stretch for each of us.

got you going tonight 😀.

it is interesting when comparing total value of gold gain since 2009 as compared to total value of btc gained.

do i really think it mean gold is better no . but 9 trillion gain does kick the ass of 1.2 trillion bigly.

it is always better when dealing with your own mortality if you can if the probable number.

When my three relatives got that cancer they died in 5-9 years.

So at 67 I was stressed thinking fuck I could be down to only 5 years. which is not too long a period of time.

back to beating the family record of 93. which at 26 years is easy to deal with.

Still holding most of my btc

the new car is pretty nice.

lets go bitcoin make jjg’s mockery win over my fuckery.😀

[Richy_T]

Definitely inflation but for example store brands are 3-4 times cheaper than Heinz (which it owns).
A HUGE difference.
I avoid Heinz products these days. Just ridiculous.
£4 buys a good quality hand crafted tomato sauce at a local fair.
Not worth the mass produced red schlop that comes out of Warren Buffet's inflated ass.

To be fair, store brand beans and bread are sold as loss leaders. Get people in for 20p beans and 12p bread and they might also buy a pack of Hob Nobs and a six pack of Guinness. This is not the same everywhere and buying bread in the US is often painful paying $2-$3 for a loaf. Though with that said, it seems to be a tactic that US stores are trying out. Wally world has 'Italian' and 'French' bread for $1 and Kroger has a reasonably priced loaf which I actually prefer to the popular US branded options.

[philipma1957]

Definitely inflation but for example store brands are 3-4 times cheaper than Heinz (which it owns).
A HUGE difference.
I avoid Heinz products these days. Just ridiculous.
£4 buys a good quality hand crafted tomato sauce at a local fair.
Not worth the mass produced red schlop that comes out of Warren Buffet's inflated ass.

To be fair, store brand beans and bread are sold as loss leaders. Get people in for 20p beans and 12p bread and they might also buy a pack of Hob Nobs and a six pack of Guinness. This is not the same everywhere and buying bread in the US is often painful paying $2-$3 for a loaf. Though with that said, it seems to be a tactic that US stores are trying out. Wally world has 'Italian' and 'French' bread for $1 and Kroger has a reasonably priced loaf which I actually prefer to the popular US branded options.

bread prices in the usa are fucking nuts.

$6.29 for a 2 pound loaf of arnold white bread.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

got you going tonight 😀.

I am somewhat glad that you are enjoying yourself in the process.

it is interesting when comparing total value of gold gain since 2009 as compared to total value of btc gained.

Sure it is interesting, yet potentially not for the reasons that you believe it is interesting.

do i really think it mean gold is better no .

You are pretty close to believing such a thing with your nonsense change in nominal value hang-up.

but 9 trillion gain does kick the ass of 1.2 trillion bigly.

If bitcoin and gold were starting from the same place, then that point would be relevant.

How can the basic idea of starting capital be staring you in the face and you still want to focus on a mostly irrelevant point.  It's almost like you are being disingenuous with your claim, yet part of the sadness is that you seem to seriously believe that you are making some kind of a relevant and/or materially meaningful point.

Yes, I will concede that percentage is not the ONLY framework, and I will concede that you are stating a technical truth, but the mere fact that you are stating a technical truth does not make it either a smart point or even a point that rescues you from retarded-ville. 

And, making the matter worse, you continue to argue the point.

it is always better when dealing with your own mortality if you can if the probable number.

When my three relatives got that cancer they died in 5-9 years.

So at 67 I was stressed thinking fuck I could be down to only 5 years. which is not too long a period of time.

back to beating the family record of 93. which at 26 years is easy to deal with.

Easier said than done.

You likely already realize that things are breaking down..

Sure, you can figure out some good habits and perhaps even figure out some ways to reverse your aging (or whatever damage that you already have), but 26 more years... .. that is no walk in the park at your age.. and then I am thinking such a thing will be a challenge for me  too, though I don't want to have negative thoughts, but I have already contemplated my mortality a few times, and surely I am trying to have good habits, but there is ONLY so much that any of us can do... diet, rest and exercise.. and perhaps not unwittingly causing damage to yourself... and there are always various environmental exposure matters too, such as plastics.. and some things we might not always realize to be negatively impacting us.

Still holding most of my btc

That is not saying much.

Not that I want you to give up Opsec, but from my point of view, most is more than 50%, and so maybe it will work out...

the new car is pretty nice.

I sometimes consider various things that I can buy, but then I think of the hassle of various parts of the ownership.. but then it sometimes can be tempting.

The other day, I was movig some boxes around, and some other furniture, and things in storage, and some of the stuff was mine, some was my parents and some was dead relatives, and I was thinking, why do I have all of this stuff that I am not using, and other people seem to have had abandoned it.. and yeah, someone has to sort through it, and once in a while I will go through a box and decide to throw some stuff out or to put some of it to use or to give it away.. but still, there can be difficulties.

I have another situation where I had worked with someone else and build what is equal to a 6 car garage, but ONLY half of it can be used for garage type space and the other half is kind of like a shop, but then when I was working with the other person to build it, I had not realized that there was like another 30 feet that could have had been built in the same location, so then I have regrets about having had built it in that way... which could have had made it easier to buy a few more toys.. for the garage side.. so instead there could have been space for another 3-4 cars and maybe some other stuff... .. so yeah, there can be hassles when adding more things, sometimes.  I do have a pretty new car, very luxurious too... . .and sometimes when I go on a trip, I don't want to rent the same level car as my own car, since sometimes it could cost like $4k a month just to rent the same level car as my own, and I did that with some cars having some of the same features, but still costing $2k per month to rent and still end up with a way inferior car to the main one that I own.

lets go bitcoin make jjg’s mockery win over my fuckery.😀

I am not going to complain about UP.. yet sometimes we just seem to be in a kind of "stuck zone," and whether weak hands are being shaken or not, the length of consolidation time can sometimes be a bit aggravating, even though we are still not even in that bad of a place, especially if we consider where we were 1 year ago or even where we were 2 years ago.. so surely relative to the last couple of years, I feel that we are not in any kind of bad place, even though witnessing some more UP might not be a bad thing, I am just not as smug about our passing through noman's land/don't wake me up zone without any hitches, when largely we have been in such zone since about the end of February so that has been 6 months of such, which also is not unusual to have 6 months or more of consolidation, yet I had expected that we weren't in a consolidation zone, even though I would not have had been surprised to consolidate in the $40ks, so in some sense we are even in a better consolidation location than would have been my late 2023 to early 2024 expectations... I mean prior to passing through more than half of noman's land and making ATHs prior to the halvening.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Glen Hoddle]

We will go up in about 6 hours, when Nvidia posts +- 10% up on target earnings.

Probably back to 64K I guess.

So stupid.

 

Although we are currently in the midst of volatility in the Bitcoin market, it will definitely increase the price of Bitcoin though we need patience. The more patience and investment we have, the more future holdings and bitcoins we can get to the highest possible price. As we are very close to a bull market.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ambatman]

lets go bitcoin make jjg’s mockery win over my fuckery.😀

I am not going to complain about UP.. yet sometimes we just seem to be in a kind of "stuck zone," and whether weak hands are being shaken or not, the length of consolidation time can sometimes be a bit aggravating, even though we are still not even in that bad of a place, especially if we consider where we were 1 year ago or even where we were 2 years ago.. so surely relative to the last couple of years, I feel that we are not in any kind of bad place, even though witnessing some more UP might not be a bad thing, I am just not as smug about our passing through noman's land/don't wake me up zone without any hitches, when largely we have been in such zone since about the end of February so that has been 6 months of such, which also is not unusual to have 6 months or more of consolidation, yet I had expected that we weren't in a consolidation zone, even though I would not have had been surprised to consolidate in the $40ks, so in some sense we are even in a better consolidation location than would have been my late 2023 to early 2024 expectations... I mean prior to passing through more than half of noman's land and making ATHs prior to the halvening.

I must say am quite surprised with the recent dip that investors would be selling while knowing that rate would be cut starting next month.
Yes September has always been know to be bad for Bitcoin but I thought it was thinking this one would be different
Except this dip is just market manipulations to get at cheaper price (more biased towards this).

As we are very close to a bull market.

We have been in the bull market since 2023 and still ongoing.

[bitcoinPsycho]

lets go bitcoin make jjg’s mockery win over my fuckery.😀

I am not going to complain about UP.. yet sometimes we just seem to be in a kind of "stuck zone," and whether weak hands are being shaken or not, the length of consolidation time can sometimes be a bit aggravating, even though we are still not even in that bad of a place, especially if we consider where we were 1 year ago or even where we were 2 years ago.. so surely relative to the last couple of years, I feel that we are not in any kind of bad place, even though witnessing some more UP might not be a bad thing, I am just not as smug about our passing through noman's land/don't wake me up zone without any hitches, when largely we have been in such zone since about the end of February so that has been 6 months of such, which also is not unusual to have 6 months or more of consolidation, yet I had expected that we weren't in a consolidation zone, even though I would not have had been surprised to consolidate in the $40ks, so in some sense we are even in a better consolidation location than would have been my late 2023 to early 2024 expectations... I mean prior to passing through more than half of noman's land and making ATHs prior to the halvening.

I must say am quite surprised with the recent dip that investors would be selling while knowing that rate would be cut starting next month.
Yes September has always been know to be bad for Bitcoin but I thought it was thinking this one would be different
Except this dip is just market manipulations to get at cheaper price (more biased towards this).

As we are very close to a bull market.

We have been in the bull market since 2023
2013 and still ongoing.

FTFY

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

PAVEL DUROV is free.
Bail set at 5 millions € and cannot leave french territory till the trial.

He should hop on his private jet and gtfo while the gettin's good.

The best thing is for him to return to his homeland, where he would have protection from all possible prosecutions for any criminal offenses - because there pedophiles, rapists and criminals of all levels receive forgiveness if they survive 6 months at the front. Besides, what's 5 million euros to someone who has $15 billion - those French are really funny if they think it can keep him in the country just because he paid their bail.

[ivomm]

The main question is, will we have an exponential bull run again lasting 6-12 months and starting later in 2024 or the first half of 2025? What are the objective prerequisites and obstacles to this?

Prerequisites:
1. The presence of ETFs, which include many institutions in the market that would not otherwise participate in the retail market.
2. The changed attitude of large financial institutions and politicians. For the first time, the issue of the US government buying and holding bitcoins as a strategic reserve was seriously raised.
3. The usual impact of the halving on market equilibrium.
4. Since February, there has been a decline in bitcoins in exchange wallets, from 2.72m to 2.39m. If this trend continues, theoretically after 4 years the wallets will empty. This means that long before then, there will be a significant rise in price. This is the so-called supply shock. How much longer can it be delayed? It is possible that this could go on for a few more days only. Possibly months, but hardly more than 6, when bitcoins will drop to around 2M.




Obstacles:
1. Recurring sales of large amounts of bitcoins by the US government and others (my country Bulgaria also has about 200K bitcoins, for which sales nothing is known about.)
2. The usual influx of indians with leveraged long positions who squeeze out every daily percentage rise and so stopping the price growth.
3. Other factors like FUD, wars, market crash etc.

It should be noted that obstacles only delay the bull market in time, making it to be more ominous. As for the peak of the bull market, it has always been determined by a single factor - when the Coinbase server will crash. And I'm not joking! Yes, it's not in any financial textbook or TA, but it is a fact that every local peak in the last 7 years has been marked by a crash of Coinbase, followed by an immediate crash in price. This is ridiculous and unfortunate because it is the very truth. The unwillingness of Coinbase to invest a few thousand bucks and replace their obsolete servers is leading to billions in losses all over the world. That's why no one can make a reasoned prediction about the peak of the bull market, only lucky guesses.

When planning sales, one should consider the lowest possible values - there to sell for immediate needs, and the highest - for extras. My lowest in case of a premature crash is 200K and highest is 400K. There may also be a supercycle with a double top with these values. That's my estimation of the Coinbase servers stamina only, otherwise I have no doubts that price over 400K is achievalbe in this (super) cycle.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

PAVEL DUROV is free.
Bail set at 5 millions € and cannot leave french territory till the trial.

He should hop on his private jet and gtfo while the gettin's good.

The best thing is for him to return to his homeland, where he would have protection from all possible prosecutions for any criminal offenses - because there pedophiles, rapists and criminals of all levels receive forgiveness if they survive 6 months at the front.

Unless they've pissed off the king president in the past (since the vKontakte affair).
I don't think Pavel wants to be seen anywhere in Russia.
Any French prison+orange suit combination beats the bottom of some Russian sea+concrete monoshoe.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Going to get me one of these in preparation for
 September's face melting rally

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Take a breather buddy
@philip I got your back, though it seems you're OK ;-)
Glad you got that thing off your chest