Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CheapYoutubeHits]

Are there any old price predictions like from years ago which were actually correct?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

~snip~
Obstacles:
1. Recurring sales of large amounts of bitcoins by the US government and others (my country Bulgaria also has about 200K bitcoins, for which sales nothing is known about.)

It is incredible that this misconception is still alive after so many years. In one local media they even announced that these BTC were sold, but the conspiracy theories are still alive.

Specifically, local news publication Bivol wrote in April 2018, the government auctioned off its haul in a low-key affair which involved various international buyers.

The sale occurred a matter of months after the crackdown, as Bitcoin price [coin_price] reached its all-time high of around $20,000 in December 2017.

The publication claims that Bulgaria’s finance minister, Vladislav Goranov, told the Prime Minister’s Security Council the sale had taken place, and that the coins were sold piecemeal so as not to crash the market.

“Several sovereign wealth funds and Asian investors” purchased the coins for around €15,000 each, with Deloitte acting as a consultant, Bivol references Goranov as revealing.

Even more curiously, “experts from the US FBI helped to ensure the safety of transactions,” the last of which occurred April 1, 2018, Goranov is reported to have said.

PAVEL DUROV is free.
Bail set at 5 millions € and cannot leave french territory till the trial.

He should hop on his private jet and gtfo while the gettin's good.

The best thing is for him to return to his homeland, where he would have protection from all possible prosecutions for any criminal offenses - because there pedophiles, rapists and criminals of all levels receive forgiveness if they survive 6 months at the front.

Unless they've pissed off the king president in the past (since the vKontakte affair).
I don't think Pavel wants to be seen anywhere in Russia.
Any French prison+orange suit combination beats the bottom of some Russian sea+concrete monoshoe.

He would not end up in prison, the Russians would be very happy to welcome him as a hero because they say that even 50% of military communication goes through his platform, but so does a significant part of Ukrainian military-political communication. Maybe he left Russia, but he never ran away from what he really is.

[xhomerx10]

Going to get me one of these in preparation for
 September's face melting rally

 I can't wait!

 

[bitcoinPsycho]

Bitcoin dominance last 12 months performance, can you see what's happening here?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Take a breather buddy
@philip I got your back, though it seems you're OK ;-)
Glad you got that thing off your chest

well knowing the biopsy was clean takes the fear away.

Dying the way my grandfather died is something I don’t wish on many people.

Got another piece of gear ready to send to my host.

I will have 4x180= 720th btc

and 1x 9= 9gh scrypt

mining in a container in Iowa.

far smaller footprint of 13kwatt vs the old mine of 225kwatt in clifton nj.

I got the new car and will go on a day trip to Roebling Museum

https://www.roeblingmuseum.org/

and six flags great adventure.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

I believe today is the day that Dell computers will be reporting their earnings and we get to find out if they were the mystery stacker during the Germany/Gox distributions. I think if they did take a massive Bitcoin position it can only be good for the market, as Dell is a pretty huge company and others are sure to follow their lead.

[Lucius]

Dying the way my grandfather died is something I don’t wish on many people.
~snip~

I never doubted your health, in fact it always seemed to me that you would live at least until the age of one hundred (I hope even more) - because when I see that you are active every day on the forum, it is only a sign that you have more energy than some members half your age

This is how AI sees you at the age of one hundred

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Are there any old price predictions like from years ago which were actually correct?

Yes.

Those people who predicted that bitcoin prices (and adoption) was going up, they ended up being correct.

Similar predictions have been continuing to go on through the years, so I am not sure what you mean by years, but everyone who predicted that bitcoin prices (and adoption) was going up, they ended up being correct, whether it was from 12 years ago, 8 years ago, 4 years ago or even 2 years ago. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Are there any old price predictions like from years ago which were actually correct?

Here’s what I was saying 13+ years ago. I believe the price was around $5 at the time and in chat groups I was saying the price would hit $4,000. For the record, I paid off my mortgage in 2017 and became completely debt free. At the time (in 2011) you could mine a BTC per day on a regular household computer. I think the most important part is the final sentence. That is what kept me from cashing out before I reached my goals.

This is what I'm thinking.  I don't see why anyone would sell before 2016 unless:  A) They're greedy and mine simply to make a quick buck (this never works out).  B) They're poor and $20 is a lot of money to them, in which case they shouldn't be mining bitcoins in the first place, they should be finding a job.  C) They don't know anything about bitcoins and have no clue that there won't ever be enough for everyone in the US to even have 0.1 of them, let alone people in the world.

I'm hoping to sell my bitcoins when they'll pay off my mortgage and not before.  Hopefully that happens before I pay it off myself in the year 2031.  If they never return a penny, at least I got to be a part of something I believe in.

This is what I was saying 11 years ago when the price was around $100, still trumpeting $4K+. This was also before I was aware the donations were spent on developing a new forum (still yet to materialize).

I haven't seen the donations spent on anything dumb yet, so I'm happy.  Wait til BTC hits $4,000 and then find a use for them.  

Factoring in inflation and a decade of market growth and this prediction from 10 years ago isn’t too far off from what we’re seeing now. Not bad given the price at the time was around $600. I can spend BTC on Amazon/Walmart using third parties, the ETF is live, El Salvador is using it, and next week Russia is expected to start trading oil using crypto…

I think a market cap of 8-20 billion is appropriate for the current market ($380-$952 BTC).  I think if paypal/ebay/amazon start accepting it, you could make the case for an 80 billion dollar market cap ($3,800 BTC).  If investors begin to embrace the coming ETF and companies like Walmart start accepting it, you could probably make a case for a 200 billion dollar market cap ($9,500 BTC).  If small countries start using it as their national currency and organizations like OPEC use it to price their products, you could see >400 billion dollar market cap (>$19,000 BTC).  I personally think it will continue to grow until it settles in somewhere around an 80 billion dollar market cap for a while.  My $0.02.

As for the future… If the US passes a bill to start stacking a set amount of BTC, I think we could see a $800K Bitcoin bubble as early as 2029.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Pretty pathetic that we still can’t hold 60k, I must admit.

My confidence about how high we do or don’t go in this cycle comes in waves. We’ve been in no mans land for a long time now though. Maybe we don’t go as high as I initially thought this time.

Market looks weak AF tbh.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Haha, just noticed my 20 cent fee league payment confirmed yesterday already!

https://btcscan.org/nojs/tx/b55362339d143497f17c1638610a84d006c19bd0ac1176f75dc31aca6f921b64

Took 4 days, I can live with that.

[BitcoinBunny]

Pretty pathetic that we still can’t hold 60k, I must admit.

My confidence about how high we do or don’t go in this cycle comes in waves. We’ve been in no mans land for a long time now though. Maybe we don’t go as high as I initially thought this time.

Market looks weak AF tbh.

I'm surprised we are still farting around the 60K mark to be honest:

* ETFs approved and massively gaining momentum, biggest inflows into any ETFs ever.
* Blackrock one of the biggest hodlers now.
* Saylor doubling down
* Trump mentioning Bitcoin, being positive and doing his rally at BTC convention (even if he doesn't understand it)
* Copycat Policy Kamala somewhat friendlier towards Bitcoin
* Ethereum starting to turn into a forgotten turd (50% down ATH, compared to BTC 20%)
* Collapse of the NFT scams (maybe that's a negative though).
* Stablecoins more and more popular.
* Nvidia / AI still on top the world supposedly.

The BTC halvening didn't seem to matter either..... yet.

Probably it's just all the big boys still being on holiday with Leonardo DiCaprio and an army of 20 year old female models at the moment.
Who the f knows...

[JayJuanGee]

Are there any old price predictions like from years ago which were actually correct?

Here’s what I was saying 13+ years ago. I believe the price was around $5 at the time and in chat groups I was saying the price would hit $4,000. For the record, I paid off my mortgage in 2017 and became completely debt free. At the time (in 2011) you could mine a BTC per day on a regular household computer. I think the most important part is the final sentence. That is what kept me from cashing out before I reached my goals.

This is what I'm thinking.  I don't see why anyone would sell before 2016 unless:  A) They're greedy and mine simply to make a quick buck (this never works out).  B) They're poor and $20 is a lot of money to them, in which case they shouldn't be mining bitcoins in the first place, they should be finding a job.  C) They don't know anything about bitcoins and have no clue that there won't ever be enough for everyone in the US to even have 0.1 of them, let alone people in the world.

I'm hoping to sell my bitcoins when they'll pay off my mortgage and not before.  Hopefully that happens before I pay it off myself in the year 2031.  If they never return a penny, at least I got to be a part of something I believe in.

This is what I was saying 11 years ago when the price was around $100, still trumpeting $4K+. This was also before I was aware the donations were spent on developing a new forum (still yet to materialize).

I haven't seen the donations spent on anything dumb yet, so I'm happy.  Wait til BTC hits $4,000 and then find a use for them.  

Factoring in inflation and a decade of market growth and this prediction from 10 years ago isn’t too far off from what we’re seeing now. Not bad given the price at the time was around $600. I can spend BTC on Amazon/Walmart using third parties, the ETF is live, El Salvador is using it, and next week Russia is expected to start trading oil using crypto…

I think a market cap of 8-20 billion is appropriate for the current market ($380-$952 BTC).  I think if paypal/ebay/amazon start accepting it, you could make the case for an 80 billion dollar market cap ($3,800 BTC).  If investors begin to embrace the coming ETF and companies like Walmart start accepting it, you could probably make a case for a 200 billion dollar market cap ($9,500 BTC).  If small countries start using it as their national currency and organizations like OPEC use it to price their products, you could see >400 billion dollar market cap (>$19,000 BTC).  I personally think it will continue to grow until it settles in somewhere around an 80 billion dollar market cap for a while.  My $0.02.

As for the future… If the US passes a bill to start stacking a set amount of BTC, I think we could see a $800K Bitcoin bubble as early as 2029.

Maybe your statements reflect a certain amount of "directionally correct" that I was attempting to describe in my early responsive post?

Maybe it is good or maybe not to pay off a mortgage, rather than just keeping that money in BTC, and presumptively you were selling decently large amounts of bitcoin in the $4k territory, which is hardly anything to be proud of when it comes to supposedly being right.

I am not proclaiming to know the right answer, and yeah, making it through a whole cycle and then being into your second cycle is likely giving you both more options and more compounding effects on your bitcoin, yet in recent times, I have also heard you mentioning that you don't have enough bitcoin - which surely seems like another mistake, since if you are in your third cycle (and perhaps even by the second cycle) you should have enough bitcoin, even if you might have sold some along the way... unless maybe you got hacked or you weren't really able to accumulate enough, yet if you weren't able to accumulate enough then perhaps it would not have been a good idea to be selling decent sized portions of your stash in 2017 at around $4k-ish.

I have told my own story in regards to someone who I had gotten into bitcoin, since about late 2014, yet that person did not buy a whole hell of a lot of bitcoin, yet maybe their average cost per BTC was in the ballpark of less than $400 per BTC, and so during 2015 and even into much of 2016, I was trying to continue to reinforce that person not to be selling any bitcoin around the old all time high of $1k-ish, and I also suggested that I am not going to be disappointed if the person at least waited until $2k to sell any or all of the bought bitcoin, yet on a personal level I was not planning to sell much if any of my BTC outside of my already established practice of shaving small amounts at various price points on the way up... so within that context, I said that I was anticipating a blow off top to be at least in the ballpark of $3k to $5k, but I would not be upset if that person started selling at or above $2k - yet that person was free to do what they liked.. and reminding as a model that I really wasn't selling much.. which surely I ended up riding that wave all the way up to $19,666 and all the way back down to $3,124 and various prices in between, and perhaps I should have had sold a bit more on the way up and not have had been less eager to buy back all the way back down from $17k-ish to $4k-ish as the BTC prices continued to fall back down.

I don't have much if any lesson out of this, except to suggest that there are a lot of things that several of us could do (and might have had said to back up what we are doing) to establish that we were directionally correct in the price direction, without necessarily being so arrogant as to proclaim that we got it right (especially in regards to specifics) or that there weren't some ways that we could learn from our own BTC portfolio management tactics.

Surely any of us mostly HODLers and BTC accumulators may well proclaim that we were more right than we were wrong as long as we were mostly erroring on the side of accumulating and HODLing.. at least accumulating until such a point that wee have enough or more than enough so that we can start shaving off of our BTC stash at any time that we want and not necessarily feel any compulsion to replace what we spent...and we are going to reach those kinds of conclusions at different points, and surely there are some folks who believe that there aren't any reason to sell coin (with a kind of an assumption that we could never have enough bitcoin - and I surely don't subscribe to that school of thought), even though I also don't really agree with making large scale sales of BTC either, even though I do believe that we can sell reasonable amounts on the way up.. and so I am not really knowing how BIG of chuncks would be selling too much, since frequently when the chunk that is sold becomes overly BIG, then there might be a bit of a presumption that the sale is made with an expectation of buying back some or all of the sold BTC at prices sufficiently lower than the sold price and so an assumption that the BTC price is dropping a certain amount to make the sale "worth it."