Are there any old price predictions like from years ago which were actually correct?
Here’s what I was saying 13+ years ago. I believe the price was around $5 at the time and in chat groups I was saying the price would hit $4,000. For the record, I paid off my mortgage in 2017 and became completely debt free. At the time (in 2011) you could mine a BTC per day on a regular household computer. I think the most important part is the final sentence. That is what kept me from cashing out before I reached my goals.
This is what I'm thinking. I don't see why anyone would sell before 2016 unless: A) They're greedy and mine simply to make a quick buck (this never works out). B) They're poor and $20 is a lot of money to them, in which case they shouldn't be mining bitcoins in the first place, they should be finding a job. C) They don't know anything about bitcoins and have no clue that there won't ever be enough for everyone in the US to even have 0.1 of them, let alone people in the world.
I'm hoping to sell my bitcoins when they'll pay off my mortgage and not before. Hopefully that happens before I pay it off myself in the year 2031. If they never return a penny, at least I got to be a part of something I believe in.
This is what I was saying 11 years ago when the price was around $100, still trumpeting $4K+. This was also before I was aware the donations were spent on developing a new forum (still yet to materialize).
I haven't seen the donations spent on anything dumb yet, so I'm happy. Wait til BTC hits $4,000 and then find a use for them.
Factoring in inflation and a decade of market growth and this prediction from 10 years ago isn’t too far off from what we’re seeing now. Not bad given the price at the time was around $600. I can spend BTC on Amazon/Walmart using third parties, the ETF is live, El Salvador is using it, and next week Russia is expected to start trading oil using crypto…
I think a market cap of 8-20 billion is appropriate for the current market ($380-$952 BTC). I think if paypal/ebay/amazon start accepting it, you could make the case for an 80 billion dollar market cap ($3,800 BTC). If investors begin to embrace the coming ETF and companies like Walmart start accepting it, you could probably make a case for a 200 billion dollar market cap ($9,500 BTC). If small countries start using it as their national currency and organizations like OPEC use it to price their products, you could see >400 billion dollar market cap (>$19,000 BTC). I personally think it will continue to grow until it settles in somewhere around an 80 billion dollar market cap for a while. My $0.02.
As for the future… If the US passes a bill to start stacking a set amount of BTC, I think we could see a $800K Bitcoin bubble as early as 2029.
Maybe your statements reflect a certain amount of "directionally correct" that I was attempting to describe in my early responsive post?
Maybe it is good or maybe not to pay off a mortgage, rather than just keeping that money in BTC, and presumptively you were selling decently large amounts of bitcoin in the $4k territory, which is hardly anything to be proud of when it comes to supposedly being right.
I am not proclaiming to know the right answer, and yeah, making it through a whole cycle and then being into your second cycle is likely giving you both more options and more compounding effects on your bitcoin, yet in recent times, I have also heard you mentioning that you don't have enough bitcoin - which surely seems like another mistake, since if you are in your third cycle (and perhaps even by the second cycle) you should have enough bitcoin, even if you might have sold some along the way... unless maybe you got hacked or you weren't really able to accumulate enough, yet if you weren't able to accumulate enough then perhaps it would not have been a good idea to be selling decent sized portions of your stash in 2017 at around $4k-ish.
I have told my own story in regards to someone who I had gotten into bitcoin, since about late 2014, yet that person did not buy a whole hell of a lot of bitcoin, yet maybe their average cost per BTC was in the ballpark of less than $400 per BTC, and so during 2015 and even into much of 2016, I was trying to continue to reinforce that person not to be selling any bitcoin around the old all time high of $1k-ish, and I also suggested that I am not going to be disappointed if the person at least waited until $2k to sell any or all of the bought bitcoin, yet on a personal level I was not planning to sell much if any of my BTC outside of my already established practice of shaving small amounts at various price points on the way up... so within that context, I said that I was anticipating a blow off top to be at least in the ballpark of $3k to $5k, but I would not be upset if that person started selling at or above $2k - yet that person was free to do what they liked.. and reminding as a model that I really wasn't selling much.. which surely I ended up riding that wave all the way up to $19,666 and all the way back down to $3,124 and various prices in between, and perhaps I should have had sold a bit more on the way up and not have had been less eager to buy back all the way back down from $17k-ish to $4k-ish as the BTC prices continued to fall back down.
I don't have much if any lesson out of this, except to suggest that there are a lot of things that several of us could do (and might have had said to back up what we are doing) to establish that we were directionally correct in the price direction, without necessarily being so arrogant as to proclaim that we got it right (especially in regards to specifics) or that there weren't some ways that we could learn from our own BTC portfolio management tactics.
Surely any of us mostly HODLers and BTC accumulators may well proclaim that we were more right than we were wrong as long as we were mostly erroring on the side of accumulating and HODLing.. at least accumulating until such a point that wee have enough or more than enough so that we can start shaving off of our BTC stash at any time that we want and not necessarily feel any compulsion to replace what we spent...and we are going to reach those kinds of conclusions at different points, and surely there are some folks who believe that there aren't any reason to sell coin (with a kind of an assumption that we could never have enough bitcoin - and I surely don't subscribe to that school of thought), even though I also don't really agree with making large scale sales of BTC either, even though I do believe that we can sell reasonable amounts on the way up.. and so I am not really knowing how BIG of chuncks would be selling too much, since frequently when the chunk that is sold becomes overly BIG, then there might be a bit of a presumption that the sale is made with an expectation of buying back some or all of the sold BTC at prices sufficiently lower than the sold price and so an assumption that the BTC price is dropping a certain amount to make the sale "worth it."
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