The market is still not tired enough to scare all the weak hands.. Making frustrations also on (very) long term holders.
It's still OK for now. However if we don't see any real break (up) in Q4 2024.. + US elections, and still in this range (or below), which will mean that the alts market would collapse even MUCH more.. well probably ugly to see in that case, and maybe we would have to expect lower targets for that cycle..
During this time S&P500 still at ATH. If stocks market declines after US election or any other bullshit (kamala, recession, wars etc..) what's the probability of a BTC/crypto bull market? probably quite LOW.
So to resume yeah, bears can play few more days / weeks.. but if Q4 has nothing convincing and same/worse than now.. make your own conclusions.
Great post, agree with everything written here. Bitcoin can perform badly throughout summer very often. There’s no reason to really panic, I am just irritated after seeing a new ATH before the halving so I expected a lot higher by this point in the year.
Traditionally Bitcoin tends to start moving in halving year at Q4. I will be concerned if the price isn’t in the $70,000s at least by the time we hit December. Obviously if Trump gets in then it will be good for the price.
LFC’s irritated eyes firmly on Q4.
But bitcoin has proven to show that it can go sideways for a very long time and it is more the big whales who get price moves going. But simultaneously they know that if they don't get a pump going, more people get nervous and sell. As it was said, market is still not tired to scare the weak hands. It could go on like this for another year. I think I wouldn't be too concerned about what bitcoin did in the past. I believe if a group of whales thinks it is time to increase their net worth, it is probably time to get a pump going.
The halving effect has become less influential and nobody can really tell when it actually had its effect. Could be like buy the rumor sell the news and this could be far in advance of the actual halving dates and I think the there is less of a psychological impact these days. Back in the days the halving event was huge and it looks more impactful due to going down 50% from a much higher coinbase transaction. Since it is not so much the case in terms of plain numbers these days, the effect is probably lower as well.
What could Trump realistically do to give bitcoin a boost? Cut taxes? I have read that
the Trump organization is planning their own crypto platform. But this would only be another trash centralized place for trading I guess.
Whatever it means though, since he
"... told his 90 million followers on X that he would lay out “a plan to ensure the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet” later on Thursday."
it is likely going to have a relatively substantial effect at least in the short term.
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