Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[d_eddie]

+700 attaboy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[tiCeR]

The market is still not tired enough to scare all the weak hands.. Making frustrations also on (very) long term holders.

It's still OK for now. However if we don't see any real break (up) in Q4 2024.. + US elections, and still in this range (or below), which will mean that the alts market would collapse even MUCH more.. well probably ugly to see in that case, and maybe we would have to expect lower targets for that cycle..

During this time S&P500 still at ATH. If stocks market declines after US election or any other bullshit (kamala, recession, wars etc..)  what's the probability of a BTC/crypto bull market? probably quite LOW.

So to resume yeah, bears can play few more days / weeks.. but if Q4 has nothing convincing and same/worse than now.. make your own conclusions.

Great post, agree with everything written here. Bitcoin can perform badly throughout summer very often. There’s no reason to really panic, I am just irritated after seeing a new ATH before the halving so I expected a lot higher by this point in the year.

Traditionally Bitcoin tends to start moving in halving year at Q4. I will be concerned if the price isn’t in the $70,000s at least by the time we hit December. Obviously if Trump gets in then it will be good for the price.

LFC’s irritated eyes firmly on Q4.

But bitcoin has proven to show that it can go sideways for a very long time and it is more the big whales who get price moves going. But simultaneously they know that if they don't get a pump going, more people get nervous and sell. As it was said, market is still not tired to scare the weak hands. It could go on like this for another year. I think I wouldn't be too concerned about what bitcoin did in the past. I believe if a group of whales thinks it is time to increase their net worth, it is probably time to get a pump going.

The halving effect has become less influential and nobody can really tell when it actually had its effect. Could be like buy the rumor sell the news and this could be far in advance of the actual halving dates and I think the there is less of a psychological impact these days. Back in the days the halving event was huge and it looks more impactful due to going down 50% from a much higher coinbase transaction. Since it is not so much the case in terms of plain numbers these days, the effect is probably lower as well.

What could Trump realistically do to give bitcoin a boost? Cut taxes? I have read that the Trump organization is planning their own crypto platform. But this would only be another trash centralized place for trading I guess.

Whatever it means though, since he

"... told his 90 million followers on X that he would lay out “a plan to ensure the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet” later on Thursday."

it is likely going to have a relatively substantial effect at least in the short term.

[fillippone]

The market is still not tired enough to scare all the weak hands.. Making frustrations also on (very) long term holders.

It's still OK for now. However if we don't see any real break (up) in Q4 2024.. + US elections, and still in this range (or below), which will mean that the alts market would collapse even MUCH more.. well probably ugly to see in that case, and maybe we would have to expect lower targets for that cycle..

During this time S&P500 still at ATH. If stocks market declines after US election or any other bullshit (kamala, recession, wars etc..)  what's the probability of a BTC/crypto bull market? probably quite LOW.

So to resume yeah, bears can play few more days / weeks.. but if Q4 has nothing convincing and same/worse than now.. make your own conclusions.

Great post, agree with everything written here. Bitcoin can perform badly throughout summer very often. There’s no reason to really panic, I am just irritated after seeing a new ATH before the halving so I expected a lot higher by this point in the year.

Traditionally Bitcoin tends to start moving in halving year at Q4. I will be concerned if the price isn’t in the $70,000s at least by the time we hit December. Obviously if Trump gets in then it will be good for the price.

LFC’s irritated eyes firmly on Q4.

Seasonality is not good for Bitcoin, actually, in September we are used to go down:



"Wake me up when September ends"

[philipma1957]

The market is still not tired enough to scare all the weak hands.. Making frustrations also on (very) long term holders.

It's still OK for now. However if we don't see any real break (up) in Q4 2024.. + US elections, and still in this range (or below), which will mean that the alts market would collapse even MUCH more.. well probably ugly to see in that case, and maybe we would have to expect lower targets for that cycle..

During this time S&P500 still at ATH. If stocks market declines after US election or any other bullshit (kamala, recession, wars etc..)  what's the probability of a BTC/crypto bull market? probably quite LOW.

So to resume yeah, bears can play few more days / weeks.. but if Q4 has nothing convincing and same/worse than now.. make your own conclusions.

Great post, agree with everything written here. Bitcoin can perform badly throughout summer very often. There’s no reason to really panic, I am just irritated after seeing a new ATH before the halving so I expected a lot higher by this point in the year.

Traditionally Bitcoin tends to start moving in halving year at Q4. I will be concerned if the price isn’t in the $70,000s at least by the time we hit December. Obviously if Trump gets in then it will be good for the price.

LFC’s irritated eyes firmly on Q4.

Seasonality is not good for Bitcoin, actually, in September we are used to go down:



"Wake me up when September ends"

yeah but how many Septembers did we get a rate cut from the feds?

[Ambatman]

+700 attaboy

plus seven hundred
Atta boy such a kill joy
So-ma still Hodling


#haikuforamundaneprice

[Ambatman]

The market is still not tired enough to scare all the weak hands.. Making frustrations also on (very) long term holders.

It's still OK for now. However if we don't see any real break (up) in Q4 2024.. + US elections, and still in this range (or below), which will mean that the alts market would collapse even MUCH more.. well probably ugly to see in that case, and maybe we would have to expect lower targets for that cycle..

During this time S&P500 still at ATH. If stocks market declines after US election or any other bullshit (kamala, recession, wars etc..)  what's the probability of a BTC/crypto bull market? probably quite LOW.

So to resume yeah, bears can play few more days / weeks.. but if Q4 has nothing convincing and same/worse than now.. make your own conclusions.

Great post, agree with everything written here. Bitcoin can perform badly throughout summer very often. There’s no reason to really panic, I am just irritated after seeing a new ATH before the halving so I expected a lot higher by this point in the year.

Traditionally Bitcoin tends to start moving in halving year at Q4. I will be concerned if the price isn’t in the $70,000s at least by the time we hit December. Obviously if Trump gets in then it will be good for the price.

LFC’s irritated eyes firmly on Q4.

Seasonality is not good for Bitcoin, actually, in September we are used to go down:



"Wake me up when September ends"

September effect
The fed made me feel that this would make the fourth September with a positive movement.
We can't really rule out a chance of a pump until the end of September.
Approximately 20% of it occurring is still a chance.

[fillippone]

<...>
Seasonality is not good for Bitcoin, actually, in September we are used to go down:



"Wake me up when September ends"

yeah but how many Septembers did we get a rate cut from the feds?

2019, apparently, since genesis block:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

<...>
Seasonality is not good for Bitcoin, actually, in September we are used to go down:



"Wake me up when September ends"

yeah but how many Septembers did we get a rate cut from the feds?

2019, apparently, since genesis block:

that chart looks hopeful .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

The market is still not tired enough to scare all the weak hands.. Making frustrations also on (very) long term holders.

It's still OK for now. However if we don't see any real break (up) in Q4 2024.. + US elections, and still in this range (or below), which will mean that the alts market would collapse even MUCH more.. well probably ugly to see in that case, and maybe we would have to expect lower targets for that cycle..

During this time S&P500 still at ATH. If stocks market declines after US election or any other bullshit (kamala, recession, wars etc..)  what's the probability of a BTC/crypto bull market? probably quite LOW.

So to resume yeah, bears can play few more days / weeks.. but if Q4 has nothing convincing and same/worse than now.. make your own conclusions.

Great post, agree with everything written here. Bitcoin can perform badly throughout summer very often. There’s no reason to really panic, I am just irritated after seeing a new ATH before the halving so I expected a lot higher by this point in the year.

Traditionally Bitcoin tends to start moving in halving year at Q4. I will be concerned if the price isn’t in the $70,000s at least by the time we hit December. Obviously if Trump gets in then it will be good for the price.

LFC’s irritated eyes firmly on Q4.

But bitcoin has proven to show that it can go sideways for a very long time and it is more the big whales who get price moves going. But simultaneously they know that if they don't get a pump going, more people get nervous and sell. As it was said, market is still not tired to scare the weak hands. It could go on like this for another year. I think I wouldn't be too concerned about what bitcoin did in the past. I believe if a group of whales thinks it is time to increase their net worth, it is probably time to get a pump going.

Sure, any of us hope for the white whale to rescue us, yet I have my doubts that whales control BTC's price as much as any of us would like to think.

yeah, sure, they are here playing around with the BTC price, but still seems like a BIG so what to me.

We might consider that the bear whales are constantly trying to push BTC's price down as far down as they can get it to go and to hold it down there for as long as they are able to, yet from time to time, they lose their abilities to continue to keep BTC prices down.

The halving effect has become less influential and nobody can really tell when it actually had its effect.

I will believe that the halvening is less influential when I see it.  Personally, I have not seen the halvenining to be less influential, and yeah, we have had around 4.5 months of 1/2 of the amount of newly issued coins, so surely the ongoing restriction on such new issuance has some effect.. and we can even say that the prehavening price rise was partly led by ETFs but also partly led by ideas that the halvening was coming.

People are free to write off the effects of the halvening, yet I consider those kinds of presumptions as premature...and let's see where we are at the end of 2025 and if you have some explanation that excludes the "effects (influencialness) of the halvening"

Could be like buy the rumor sell the news and this could be far in advance of the actual halving dates and I think the there is less of a psychological impact these days. Back in the days the halving event was huge and it looks more impactful due to going down 50% from a much higher coinbase transaction. Since it is not so much the case in terms of plain numbers these days, the effect is probably lower as well.

Could be.  But I am not going down such presumptive path until I see actual convincing evidence.

What could Trump realistically do to give bitcoin a boost? Cut taxes? I have read that the Trump organization is planning their own crypto platform. But this would only be another trash centralized place for trading I guess.

The theory seems to be that friendliness towards bitcoin (and crypto/shitcoins, et al) is more bullish for bitcoin as compared with anticipated ongoing hostility towards bitcoin and crypto.  Whether any of those theories are correct is still to be seen.

Whatever it means though, since he

"... told his 90 million followers on X that he would lay out “a plan to ensure the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet” later on Thursday."

it is likely going to have a relatively substantial effect at least in the short term.

Even though Trump is a dweeb in several ways, even irritating to listen to, he has had some pretty solid bitcoin talking points, even though he seems to NOT have too much of an idea about the difference between bitcoin and shitcoins, even though from time to time, he suggests that he knows the difference.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

~snop

What could Trump realistically do to give bitcoin a boost? Cut taxes? I have read that the Trump organization is planning their own crypto platform. But this would only be another trash centralized place for trading I guess.

The theory seems to be that friendliness towards bitcoin (and crypto/shitcoins, et al) is more bullish for bitcoin as compared with anticipated ongoing hostility towards bitcoin and crypto.  Whether any of those theories are correct is still to be seen.

 Guys, guise, guise, guys guys...

 You don't have to theorize

 Think "unrealized"

early haiku

https://financialpost.com/financial-times/kamala-harris-rattles-tech-elite-tax-unrealized-gains

Kamala Harris rattles Silicon Valley elite with prospect of tax on unrealized gains
Democratic proposal faces long odds but has nevertheless alarmed ultra-wealthy venture capitalists, entrepreneurs and investors


 Her current proposal might not affect us directly at this time but this would open the door.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

rip anandtech

https://www.anandtech.com/show/21542/end-of-the-road-an-anandtech-farewell

anandtech is where i 1st heard of bitcoin

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

rip anandtech

https://www.anandtech.com/show/21542/end-of-the-road-an-anandtech-farewell

anandtech is where i 1st heard of bitcoin

 

first place that helped me  with btc. and they steered me to bitcointalk.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com