Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

.....................
If, by next year's end,
Price is still at 5 digits,
I will drink your tears!
.....................

I have heard some not unreasonable assessments that the BTC price could go up 3x to 10x from here, but then correct back down into the 5 digits - and yeah, not getting out of the 5 digits prior to the end of 2025 would be one thing, and correcting back down into the 5 digits would be another thing.

Frequently, how far we go up and how long we are able to stay up may well end up affecting the severity of the down, yet at the same time, prior to 2022-ish many of us (including a lot of folks who ended up getting quite reckt) speculated that BTC prices would not dip below the 200-WMA, unless such dips might merely be short-term and not too severe spikes below such threshold levels.

Yet we experienced a fairly extensive period of time of much of 16 months below the 200-WMA between June 2022 until October 2023, and there was a decent amount of time more than 10% below the 200-WMA with the greatest spike below the 200-WMA being 36% below.

In any event, it still seems that spending more time at higher prices has somewhat of a Lindy Effect that seems to make it somewhat more difficult to deviate as much from the gravitating price points, which has also been described as a Power Law, too.

Based on how much BTC demand seemed to have been flowing through the ETFs caused me to consider that we had decently good chances of reaching $120k to $180k this year and then potentially consolidating somewhere in that range, and surely I am not very excited about theories of going to 6 digits and then returning back to 5 digits, since I was thinking our top for this cycle (meaning by the end of 2025) would be somewhere north of $220k and perhaps even north of $400k, and I am not even opposed to the supra $1 million scenarios.. though it could be a wee bit too soon for those supra $1 million scenarios to play out and even feeling a bit looney just mentioning them, even though I likely would not even be assigning greater than a few percentage point odds on something like that for this cycle anyhow.. but I still likely come off as a bit looney just for mentioning such.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ambatman]

Hey, maybe it's wealthy British peeps who are driving bitcoin down?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/ar-AA1pMdyP

Wealthy individuals and entrepreneurs are already fleeing Britain as fears grow over a raft of tax rises in Rachel Reeves’s first Budget.
An exodus is being reported by bankers, financial advisers and business chiefs with experts warning that the Chancellor risks ruining hopes of faster economic growth with a widely expected increase in capital gains tax (CGT)...He said: “There is definitely a cash flow advantage to the Government in allowing all these transactions to go ahead over the next couple of months because they get their tax sooner rather than later.

“The uncertainty now is just creating this insane period where people are triggering gains that they wouldn’t otherwise trigger for maybe many years.”

I guess all sells before the announcement would be under the old CGT "regime", right?

This would be worse if Kamala Harris wins the election.
Investment would seem like something only the gutsy do.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

testing "too drunk to post on WO" theory

[savetherainforest]

testing "too drunk to post on WO" theory

You just need a long f^cking password on your phone.

The way it works is when you are too drunk you will never be able to open your phone, because you are too drunk.   

[nutildah]

[aesma]

My two weeks summer vacations are ending, preceded by two weeks where I didn't work much as I went to see Olympic events.

As usual I'm not too happy about going back to work, but with $100K BTC on the horizon, then $150K BTC, then $200K BTC, I'm more and more wondering why work ?

I still haven't been able to buy a house for various reasons so I have a big stash of cash, enough to live off a few years renting a villa in Bali or something, waiting for my BTC stash to become fuck you money...

Friend, since you waited and couldn't buy a house, you should be patient for a while longer. Of course the bull run will pump the price of Bitcoin to the maximum, so patience is needed here. 
You wait calmly of course you can buy double house in future your bitcoins will multiply.  Bitcoin may touch 100k and 150k dollar soon after its bull run.

aesma has been mentioning the house-buying topic for quite a while, maybe even a whole bitcoin cycle, so he seems to be pretty patient, when it comes to the housing matter.

On the other hand, I do appreciate the point that with the passage of time it has been taking way and way fewer bitcoin to buy the same house, even if the house might have had gone up 50% or more in the past several years..

I was attempting to have a similar conversation with a renter who is in the process of becoming a first-time home buyer, and my suggestion was  to NOT get so anxious in regards to getting a house and perhaps investing in bitcoin for a whole cycle or more and then revisiting the housing matter a wee bit down the road.. .. but yeah, people can sometimes get anxious to stretch their budgets in order to get into a house of their own, even if they are going to end up considerably debt-laden and with quite a few burdens and costs (my friend's chosen housing situation was within a home owners association kind of a set-up so the association fees did not even seem to be that attractive from my perspective, either).

Looking at housing in the US (even though I can't live there, in fact currently I can't even travel there due to a Cuba vacation) I found out about high HOA fees for condos or even mobile homes, that's crazy. Here the only people paying large fees like that live in true luxury flats, I'm talking Trump Tower stuff, not a mobile home...

Anyway there is a bit of urgency now in my housing situation, at some point I was ready to use some BTC to buy but that's not the case anymore, I keep the BTC, however I have enough cash/stocks to buy something outright or with a manageable mortgage (down to 3% here in France so not too bad).

I was thinking, well I'm still thinking, about moving to a cheaper, warmer country, in a seaside place, but that means quitting my job so it's a risky move, in the end I have decided to push that back a few years, I will take vacations instead, visit some countries to pinpoint the destination, maybe even French bits (French Caribbean, French Polynesia, Reunion island, New Caledonia is out with the civil war going on there).

So it makes sense to get a house for a few years, I might even keep it after I leave as a pied-à-terre.

Also if BTC goes up as we all want I could quit the job in a couple of years and stay here for a bit to see if I adapt well to not working, maybe go to the local swimming pool every day or something to "simulate" my final destination, go on longer vacations there, before making the move.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

hey buddy I am going to give you a merit as a bribe to drop price more . I want to buy some dip.

[Richy_T]

Looking at housing in the US (even though I can't live there, in fact currently I can't even travel there due to a Cuba vacation) I found out about high HOA fees for condos or even mobile homes, that's crazy. Here the only people paying large fees like that live in true luxury flats, I'm talking Trump Tower stuff, not a mobile home...

HOAs are far from ubiquitous and not that hard to avoid. You just tend to hear a lot of people complaining about them because many are terrible. There is also lots of affordable, spacious housing if you don't have to be in a big city and I like the area I live in but it would be hard to recommend it as a destination for someone looking to make the most of their wealth right now. Wait a few years and see how things shake out.

[JayJuanGee]

Sounds like a self-description.. of uie-pooie.

#Just noticing.

[edited out]

Looking at housing in the US (even though I can't live there, in fact currently I can't even travel there due to a Cuba vacation) I found out about high HOA fees for condos or even mobile homes, that's crazy. Here the only people paying large fees like that live in true luxury flats, I'm talking Trump Tower stuff, not a mobile home...

I doubt that the USA is the ONLY place that has those kinds of locations..

What you seem to be describing would be a type of gated community, and some of the gated communities are designed for seasonal inhabitants that might have mobile homes or they might even have some quasi-permanent homes within the gated community, yet they pay for the lot (and maybe a house is already there or they can put their own house, or just use it as a mobile location with electrical hookups and perhaps plumbing hookups, and the reason for the Home Owners association fees would be for servicing of the various public areas, such as the roads and parks that are within the community, and there likely would be at least one community house (with meeting rooms and party rooms) and perhaps a few community swimming pools, saunas, gyms, public laundries and bathrooms.  Security might involve the employment of gate guards and also security cameras.  Perhaps some of them have community stores and restaurants within their parameters, too, and some are in better locations than others or more economical than others.

Anyway there is a bit of urgency now in my housing situation, at some point I was ready to use some BTC to buy but that's not the case anymore, I keep the BTC, however I have enough cash/stocks to buy something outright or with a manageable mortgage (down to 3% here in France so not too bad).

With the 3% rates, you are likely referring to an adjustable mortgage, which can become tricky even though I agree that 3% would not be bad if you are able to sustain a mortgage rate like that over several years.  That kind of a rate would be even better if it were fixed.

Even if you have a decent amount of BTC right now might not be a great time to get rid of any of them, but from what I recall of your situation, you are not quite at the point that you are done accumulating, yet many of us who have been in bitcoin for a while likely realize that if we have been in bitcoin for a while, then we likely have decent options in regards to shaving off some of our stash from time to time for various expenses that we might have if we believe that there could be circumstances in which we are not quite if we have enough other kinds of our cashflow that we might want to use for such expenses, so in that regard, the BTC price is still 50% above the 200-WMA, so it is not really at bottom prices, even though surely many of us are likely anticipating a wee bit of a bump up in BTC prices from here.,... yet we can never really know about how likely would be the bump up in BTC prices with any level of confidence, so sometimes, if we are not sure about the price direction, there might be some value in terms of selling some BTC, especially if we are confident that we are going to be needing the money in the near-term.

I was thinking, well I'm still thinking, about moving to a cheaper, warmer country, in a seaside place, but that means quitting my job so it's a risky move, in the end I have decided to push that back a few years, I will take vacations instead, visit some countries to pinpoint the destination, maybe even French bits (French Caribbean, French Polynesia, Reunion island, New Caledonia is out with the civil war going on there).

I gather that French is spoken in each of those areas.  Are there any English speaking places that you would consider? Or are you less comfortable with English-speaking locations?

So it makes sense to get a house for a few years, I might even keep it after I leave as a pied-à-terre.

Also if BTC goes up as we all want I could quit the job in a couple of years and stay here for a bit to see if I adapt well to not working, maybe go to the local swimming pool every day or something to "simulate" my final destination, go on longer vacations there, before making the move.

It can be quite a bit of work to travel from location to location, and then packing light can feel like there is not enough stuff .. the living out of a suitcase feeling can sometimes be a bit difficult.. while at the same time, there can be adventure in it too..

hey buddy I am going to give you a merit as a bribe to drop price more . I want to buy some dip.

It is not good to be rooting for DOWNity.

#Just saying.

It makes you sound like a low coiner, no coiner and/or a trader^**....


Oh Wait......


 

** Edit: I was considering adding a few more, such as shitcoiner, bitcoin naysayer, and/or fiat worshipper, but I decided not to quite go there, yet.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

It seems the neckline for my inverse head and shoulder prediction did not pan out.

Could it still be considered a H&S if the neckline isn't completely parallel to the x axis? I think no.

[AlcoHoDL]

.....................
If, by next year's end,
Price is still at 5 digits,
I will drink your tears!
.....................

I have heard some not unreasonable assessments that the BTC price could go up 3x to 10x from here, but then correct back down into the 5 digits - and yeah, not getting out of the 5 digits prior to the end of 2025 would be one thing, and correcting back down into the 5 digits would be another thing.

Frequently, how far we go up and how long we are able to stay up may well end up affecting the severity of the down, yet at the same time, prior to 2022-ish many of us (including a lot of folks who ended up getting quite reckt) speculated that BTC prices would not dip below the 200-WMA, unless such dips might merely be short-term and not too severe spikes below such threshold levels.

Yet we experienced a fairly extensive period of time of much of 16 months below the 200-WMA between June 2022 until October 2023, and there was a decent amount of time more than 10% below the 200-WMA with the greatest spike below the 200-WMA being 36% below.

In any event, it still seems that spending more time at higher prices has somewhat of a Lindy Effect that seems to make it somewhat more difficult to deviate as much from the gravitating price points, which has also been described as a Power Law, too.

Based on how much BTC demand seemed to have been flowing through the ETFs caused me to consider that we had decently good chances of reaching $120k to $180k this year and then potentially consolidating somewhere in that range, and surely I am not very excited about theories of going to 6 digits and then returning back to 5 digits, since I was thinking our top for this cycle (meaning by the end of 2025) would be somewhere north of $220k and perhaps even north of $400k, and I am not even opposed to the supra $1 million scenarios.. though it could be a wee bit too soon for those supra $1 million scenarios to play out and even feeling a bit looney just mentioning them, even though I likely would not even be assigning greater than a few percentage point odds on something like that for this cycle anyhow.. but I sill likely come off as a bit looney just for mentioning such.

I cannot disagree with anything you're saying above. In Bitcoinland anything is possible and it would not surprise me (but would somewhat disappoint me) if we saw the price climbing up to 10x of its current value only to soon drop down to 5 digits. Still I somehow doubt the swing will be that wild. Maybe dropping down to low-6-digit levels, and then gently climbing up to find its steady-state maturity value (a.k.a. sideways/ant-pump/dumps until the next cycle). Will that pattern hold true forever? I don't think so, but I do think price will be monotonically increasing on average ("going up forever, Laura"), just not at the same magnitude/cycle (slowing down, which is why early adopters were (are) always the winners when compared to later ones).

About the 200-WMA, it is still my favorite indicator, although, again, small (or even larger) dips below it occasionally do not (and would not) surprise me. Its mathematical equation is far too simple to carry any significant/deep meaning that would make the indicator "intelligent" enough to capture the intricacies of a piece of code that's orders of magnitude more complex. Yet, it still does a pretty good job at setting a lower bound on the price, and giving us a frame of reference to assess things like "fuck-you" status thresholds and other such funzies. And, looking at the 200-WMA from a fully zoomed-out perspective, I do not really see many serious violations of its role as a price lower bound (every rule has exceptions, etc.), so it still remains my go-to reference for helping me answer the "when" and the "how much" questions that often arise in the life of a HoDLer.

I like your reference to the Lindy Effect, it does seem to fit the history of Bitcoin, in that each cycle more or less builds a foundation upon which further price increases can create a staircase effect. Couple that with the ETFs and the general adoption that we've seen in recent years, and it's difficult for anyone (even enemies of Bitcoin) to dismiss its future. As for the price levels you mention in your last paragraph, I don't see any reason why we won't see them, especially near the end of 2025 when this cycle is likely to reach its peak. I think we are all in for some exciting times in the next 12-15 months. Perhaps many of us are going to reach very close to the end of this (never-ending, really) journey. Perhaps...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com