JJG are you over extended in your BTC to cash ratio?
You seem to be referring to my stating that I have around 2%-ish in cash and so then if we might calculate the shitcoins as around 0.5%, then that would leave me with about 97.5% in bitcoin. I do have other investments and cashflows.. so I am referring to money that is in the system and dedicated to bitcoin buys. .or at least money that is currently tagged as being available for such.
Those kinds of proportions do seem a bit awkward sometimes, since I am pretty sure that in the run up to $19,666 in 2017, I am pretty sure that my cash to bitcoin ration got somewhere into the 12% to 88% territories, yet over the years it seems that I have been making my BTC portfolio more robust, even though there is a kind of ever increasing low proportion that is in cash. Of course, I still have cashflow from other sources that pretty much sustain me and including that a lot of my traditional investments also supplementarily support a large portion of my standard of living. I do go through some thought experiments that I am able to withdraw cash from my BTC at any time if I want to do it, so it would not matter if the BTC price is $30k or $80k, and so I do have that kind of flexibility in terms of what I can do, and sure of course, if BTC prices were to even start to get close to the lower $40ks or even below that, then I would not feel good about selling any of my bitcoin, yet at the same time it would hardly be any kind of BIG deal either since I would still be selling at 40x profits rather than at 65x profits.. so I do have some of that kind of personal flexibility.
I will also mention that my ratios were fairly similar when we were up into the $60ks last time two times in 2021 too... yet in that regard, my 2%-ish or maybe it was 3% in cash was largely enough to support all of my BTC buy orders down to $20k, and sure I did a bit of tweaking of some of those buy orders to set them down to lower places, since I recall that the buy orders were initially set only to go down to about $21k or $22k-ish (since that was where the 200-WMA was at at that time), yet at various points in 2022 during the fairly severe price drops when I rejiggered aspects of that same available cash, I was able to use much if not all of that same available cash down to perhaps $18k-ish and then it seems that I injected some new cash to cover any of the BTC that I bought down to about $15.5k-ish and also to cover some additional reserves that I felt that I had to create so that my then BTC buy orders were able to go down to $11k-ish, even though luckily I did not have to execute any of my BTC buy orders between about $11k-ish and $15.5k-ish.
So yeah, it can some times seem strange how any of us might juggle whatever cash that we might have available and if that cash might be available for BTC buys or if such cashmight be available for other kinds of expenses and/or investments that any of us might want to make.
Apart from our 2022 dippening example, I have felt even more cash-strapped in some of the earlier times, in terms of my level of preparation for down and/or running out of money on some of our various past dips (such as the dip to $3,124 in November 2018 and some earlier dips), so I think that I am feeling even better right now, even though the number of 2%-ish does seem quite low. My current cash is covering my buy orders down to $26k-ish.. and surely as the BTC price goes up then more cash comes available, yet the percentage does not really seem to improve very much, yet I still sense that my buys and sells are sufficiently balanced for my current comfort level.
I guess the punchline answer is that I don't feel any major stresses, even though the numbers seem a bit lopsided, yet I think that the main point is that I am feeling sufficiently comfortable about how much cash I have dedicated towards my buy backs and the extent to which the BTC price price might go down to the levels upon which I am currently maintaining my buy orders.. and surely decisions in this respect continue to be a moving target, and in recent months I had been having some construction work done, and so when I was looking through some of my projected costs, I was thinking that I could potentially pull some of my buy orders between $26k-ish and $30k-ish and still feel that I am sufficiently covered in terms of where the BTC price might go and whether i have enough cash to cover where the BTC price could end up going.
Poll
