Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

we ran up about 17x from jan 2017 to dec 2017
that would mean we top 1.5 million next dec 2025

I don't think it scales that way. It can do that while the money needed to move the market cap is so little as to be negligible. Double 1 million, it's 2 millions. Or even a few millions - almost no sweat. Now, double a dozen of times and you get into several billions. Now the whole thing changes, because there's only so much the average Joe can do.

It's similar to the physics of pendulum motion. The famous result about isochronous oscillations - that is, the time duration of a pendulum swing is independent of the displacement - only works when we can assume the displacement x small enough: such that x/sin(x) ~ 1. As soon as the money needed goes beyond a certain order of magnitude (that is, when the pendulum swings are wider, as in over 0.1 radians ~ 6 degrees), isochronism doesn't hold anymore. And proportionality of our number movement won't scale anymore.

Another way to look at it is that perpetual exponential growth cannot be sustained in a closed system. There's a lid somewhere, and any exponentially growing quantity (such as btc number under unform rate of growth) is bound to hit it.

This doesn't mean number can't go up for a very long time. It only means it can't keep on going up at a constant rate for a long time. The rate of growth must decrease.

[Biodom]

What are you going to do at or around your seemingly modest target?

About a week and a half ago, I had already gone through a process of figuring out and then setting my sell orders after $150k and then up to around $450k, and sure I may have had been cheating a little bit since I had already outlined a tentative plan earlier in 2024, but then I thought that I could sleep on the tentative plan until BTC prices started getting closer to $100k, and so we kind of got stuck without getting too much closer to $100k, but then by December 4th / December 5th, my sell orders up to $150k started to seem quite scarce and as if they could easily fill and then catch me off guard without having any sell orders on the books.. so I did not want that.

Anyhow, it feels a bit better to have the numbers in place, and yeah, each time we get into these price discovery areas there are some disorienting aspects and at the same time some grounding that comes from making the readjustments.. like $100k is our new floor or something like that... even though sure, the floor could be pierced, but $100k becomes a new Schelling point... in which it seems more likely that we are going to Schell (if that's a word?) above rather than below the Schelling point.

Without giving too much away, I’m going to take what I deem as a lot of money out between $140,000 - $200,000. I still remember being deluded in 2016 and 2017 as a moon boy, thinking it would keep going up which led to me selling nothing. The ensuing bear market was tough because I had a lot of regrets. I said then, that would not happen to me again.

If the price continues to rise past $200,000 and we end up in some type of super cycle I will just sell more as we go up. Absolute maximum % of the current stash I am willing to sell is 50% this cycle but in all likelihood it will be 25% or thereabouts.

Obviously the plan will be to buy as much back as possible in the inevitable bear market that follows in 2026/27.

Good plan. Every time I sell (not this cycle so far), it goes up, though.
In fact, anything I sell in significant volume, goes up afterwards, so I kind of developed a sell "PTSD".
216K sounded cool to me before, but with all this new developments, I just don't know.


I don't believe 17x from prior high is likely this cycle, but it is not impossible.
Maybe, play it by the "ear"?

[JayJuanGee]

What if....if Trump Bitcoin reserve allocation will indeed happening as a result the price will moon upwards $500,000+ in 2025.

we'd have a run-up like back in the days. Last cycle's was was broken by shitcoiner Musk and the Chinese mining ban

Again: don't forget Gensler hamstringing spot ETFs. I blame him and nasty senile Biden.

Get out of here guys, and we can describe a variety of reasons for price swings and even over exuberance in the sense that if we have various frauds going on in the market too that caused a downward cascade of contagions once some of those started to fall.. so who really can identify any one point and if the BTC price should have had kept going up when we found out about cascading issues when they started to come down. 

It seems like Terra Luna kind of started the cascading, but there was also artificial prop coming from how 3 arrows capital and some of those were trading on the premium GBTC, that turned into a discount.. and then all of a sudden everyone was fucked.. since many were depending on that trade in order to offer their various outrageous and guaranteed yield products... with Celsius, Voyager, Blockfi,.. and surely the cascade of those contributed to the FTX/Alameda fall (after SBF was going to save all of the fledgling businesses first).

What are you going to do at or around your seemingly modest target?

About a week and a half ago, I had already gone through a process of figuring out and then setting my sell orders after $150k and then up to around $450k, and sure I may have had been cheating a little bit since I had already outlined a tentative plan earlier in 2024, but then I thought that I could sleep on the tentative plan until BTC prices started getting closer to $100k, and so we kind of got stuck without getting too much closer to $100k, but then by December 4th / December 5th, my sell orders up to $150k started to seem quite scarce and as if they could easily fill and then catch me off guard without having any sell orders on the books.. so I did not want that.

Anyhow, it feels a bit better to have the numbers in place, and yeah, each time we get into these price discovery areas there are some disorienting aspects and at the same time some grounding that comes from making the readjustments.. like $100k is our new floor or something like that... even though sure, the floor could be pierced, but $100k becomes a new Schelling point... in which it seems more likely that we are going to Schell (if that's a word?) above rather than below the Schelling point.

Without giving too much away, I’m going to take what I deem as a lot of money out between $140,000 - $200,000. I still remember being deluded in 2016 and 2017 as a moon boy, thinking it would keep going up which led to me selling nothing. The ensuing bear market was tough because I had a lot of regrets. I said then, that would not happen to me again.

If the price continues to rise past $200,000 and we end up in some type of super cycle I will just sell more as we go up. Absolute maximum % of the current stash I am willing to sell is 50% this cycle but in all likelihood it will be 25% or thereabouts.

Obviously the plan will be to buy as much back as possible in the inevitable bear market that follows in 2026/27.

Fair enough.  50% would seem outrageous to me, and even 25% seems high, but I suppose you have to do what you have to do.  I already have so much extra cash just from small sales on the way up (even here and even moreso I expect as we go.. which I can already see the projections), so I have a hard time imagining selling even more than I have, which still amounts to way less than 25%.. and probably amounts to less than just a few percent with the projected sales that I have all the way up to $450k, even though I can appreciate the inclination to sell some large chunks... and surely I have to figure out some ways to spend more money.. without causing too much work for myself.

These days, even if we get ups and downs all over the place, it seems that if we are getting to a place that if we end up getting crashes all the way back down to $100k then it does not even feel bad to sell some at the crash points, except my system already allows that I would be selling on the way up, so why would there be a need to sell at the bottom, unless I run out of money to buy BTC.. but it seems that the more the BTC price goes up (which was the historical case too) the more difficult it becomes to run out of cash..

just like it probably did not feel too bad for the guys who had average costs of below $100 per coin to be selling some of their coin around $20k in 2022.. in the event that they migh have had ended up in such a situation.. ... .. Sure, no one wants to sell the bottom rather than the top, but if some of us might end up getting to be so far in profits, then shaving off some extra cornz at various points along the way does not really make much of a difference if it happens to be at a mere 100x in profits rather than doing some of the shaving at 1,000x in profits or some number in between those amounts.. .. ..like whining in such a way that I only got 186x profits rather than I could have had gotten 342x profits.. .  Don't get me wrong..since I might be talking a wee bit hypothetical about some of those levels of profits, since my own portfolio is only right around 106x in profits at the moment.. so it is not as BIG as the numbers that I am hypothetically describing.. which is one of the nice things about using $1k as an average cost per coin roundening.

What if....if Trump Bitcoin reserve allocation will indeed happening as a result the price will moon upwards $500,000+ in 2025.

we'd have a run-up like back in the days. Last cycle's was was broken by shitcoiner Musk and the Chinese mining ban

Again: don't forget Gensler hamstringing spot ETFs. I blame him and nasty senile Biden.

we ran up about 17x from jan 2017 to dec 2017

that would mean we top 1.5 million next dec 2025

Even though there is a law of large numbers at play, what you say is not out of the realm of possible, but it is probably still around less than 9%-ish odds that we get more than $1 million this cycle.  I must admit that my numbers could be wrong, too, since there are a lot of decently UPpity price pressure factors working in favor of dee cornz, at the moment though.

[d_eddie]

I already have so much extra cash just from small sales on the way up

Remarkable result, given the 0.63BTC you may or may not have.

[pinhead666]

some of these huge new ATH numbers just casually tossed out around here would make satoshi proud

ngl enjoying this much

thank you again satoshi

Who knows he would be watching how the market is flying, dancing round in his seating room with kids and wife. Saying "we made it".
Just today two different ATH has been created. Hodl tight!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[aesma]

I'm waiting for that moment-

https://x.com/naiivememe/status/1868563965724495876

My number is around that one too.

Like one of the answers I'm already having trouble getting to the office before 10AM, or getting there at all. Fortunately I can work from home last minute.

[philipma1957]

I'm waiting for that moment-

https://x.com/naiivememe/status/1868563965724495876

My number is around that one too.

Like one of the answers I'm already having trouble getting to the office before 10AM, or getting there at all. Fortunately I can work from home last minute.

If you are approaching f. u. level be careful you do not want to pull the

trigger and do it in one shot.

Shave a bit off at a time.

[aesma]

OT: Google's quantum computer.
https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/10/google-says-its-new-quantum-chip-indicates-that-multiple-universes-exist/
and
https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/

Willow’s performance on this benchmark is astonishing: It performed a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 1025 or 10 septillion years. If you want to write it out, it’s 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years. This mind-boggling number exceeds known timescales in physics and vastly exceeds the age of the universe. It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in a multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.

The logic of this is difficult to follow for me: they claim that the fact that their quantum computer is so much faster than the regular computer (does something in 5min that "regular"supercomputer can only do in 10^25 years, which is roughly 1 million billion times longer than our Universe existed somehow indicates that the quantum computer uses parallel universes to do the calculations. This just does not seem right to me.

However, I can imagine the quantum computer "spawning" those universes, maybe virtually, to "help" it's calculations.
Otherwise, it is not clear to me how it managed to link up with those preexisting universes as there is nothing there that one might consider an interface.
I read the D. Deutsch book, but the argument there was just as unclear. Perhaps, I am just not getting it.

A related video by Sabine Hossenfelder:

Did Google's Quantum Computer Find Evidence for the Multiverse?

I've not read or watched any of that latest news but such announcements about a quantum computer having done something quickly that a normal computer would take ages to do are always very misleading. Because quantum computers are used to find results that you wouldn't even try on a normal computer. At the same time the quantum computer will be unable to compute something your smartphone will figure out easily. It's a bit like comparing a computer and a human brain if I can use an analogy that will speak to people.

[aesma]

I'm waiting for that moment-

https://x.com/naiivememe/status/1868563965724495876

My number is around that one too.

Like one of the answers I'm already having trouble getting to the office before 10AM, or getting there at all. Fortunately I can work from home last minute.

If you are approaching f. u. level be careful you do not want to pull the

trigger and do it in one shot.

Shave a bit off at a time.

Oh I would only sell enough to last 2-3 years at most. Confident in the price still going up, and if I end up totally wrong, well I would still be able to work again. Then I would probably build a plan to shave off at certain other numbers and put that into other investments to edge my bet.

[PremiumcryptoHub]

Forbes.

Treasury plans to fund $200 billion for Bitcoin reserves.


https://cryptoslate.com/donald-trump-reportedly-plans-to-leverage-us-treasury-over-200b-fund-for-bitcoin-reserves/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Are we unpoor now?

instant ramen with eggs and green onion it is...   sushi time

 I'm going for the full Bento box.

you actually have the box? ok mr moneybags.

i just eat off the floor

 Actually it's just an empty, old tackle box I filled with ramen and some mixed frozen veggies.  You can't even tell the difference.

[philipma1957]

Are we unpoor now?

instant ramen with eggs and green onion it is...   sushi time

 I'm going for the full Bento box.

you actually have the box? ok mr moneybags.

i just eat off the floor

 Actually it's just an empty, old tackle box I filled with ramen and some mixed frozen veggies.  You can't even tell the difference.

bento is usually stainless steel. my tackle boxes were not. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

I already have so much extra cash just from small sales on the way up

Remarkable result, given the 0.63BTC you may or may not have.

Thanks.  The credit for remarkable results is not me, since bitcoin is amazing like that.  As you mentioned, I claim to have more than 0.63 of dee cornz, which used to be 3x of the intial BTC accumulation target for many normie newbies; however now that the BTC price went up so much, normie newbies are likely going to need to set their initial BTC accumulation sites lower, such as shooting for an initial charge of 10 million satoshis or something like that, which may also end up giving me permission to dip into my own bottom threshold level of corn.. because in some sense, it does not seem to be fair for me to be bragging to having more than 6x larger than the normie newbies initial stacking targets.

Another thing is that normie newbies can aim for achieving 1 million satoshis in their BTC stash at a time... so then I will feel bad if I say that I have more than 63 million satoshis, which then is more than 60x their initial stacking targets, yet surely it might still be reasonable for many of them to shoot for getting to 10 million satoshis in their stash.. .. Anyhow, if I might start to feel guilty about having too many or maybe that I reasonably have more than enough cornz, then perhaps I would thereby be able to feel comfortable in cashing some of them out on our likely soon^tm way up to $450k, yet my historical rule has been to try to at least maintain some kind of a reasonable floor level of satoshis in my stash and in my vision of the future of my stash.. .in order to feel rich, to feel like I am getting richer faster, and to feel like I have a sufficient quantity of options...

Another great thing about bitcoin is to spend from your other sources of income and cashflow first, especially if any of us wants to continue to allow our stashes to grow, which is another reason that I have tended to be a stickler for not selling too much of dee cornz on the way up, yet ONLY when we have enough BTC or more than enough BTC should we be selling any of them..or engaging in practices to sell any of our cornz..

By the way, I keep refreshing the amount of bitcoin that is needed for my ideas of default western entry-level fuck you status, and it recently crossed below 19 BTC based on my new formulas for calculation.  My assessment is that a person with that quantity of BTC has crossed over the $800k valuation based on the 200-WMA, and therefore would be authorized to withdraw up to 10% per year based on dollar withdrawals and the 200-WMA dollar value, which would be $80k per year or $6,666 per month.

I'm waiting for that moment-

https://x.com/naiivememe/status/1868563965724495876

My number is around that one too.

Like one of the answers I'm already having trouble getting to the office before 10AM, or getting there at all. Fortunately I can work from home last minute.

If you are approaching f. u. level be careful you do not want to pull the

trigger and do it in one shot.

Shave a bit off at a time.

That is one of the problems in using spot price for your valuation of your BTC, and it would not be good to sell all of your BTC and then be completely in fiat..  or have to come back to working because of miscalculating the numbers... even though I think that many people just calculate how much their stash is worth, and then they divide it by how many years they believe that they are going to need it... which is not a very good way to do it... which is part of my concern when I see guys throwing out a BTC spot price and saying once bitcoin reaches that price, then I am going to pull the fuck you lever.

[xhomerx10]

Are we unpoor now?

instant ramen with eggs and green onion it is...   sushi time

 I'm going for the full Bento box.

you actually have the box? ok mr moneybags.

i just eat off the floor

 Actually it's just an empty, old tackle box I filled with ramen and some mixed frozen veggies.  You can't even tell the difference.

bento is usually stainless steel. my tackle boxes were not. 

You're thinking of your old lunchbox! 



Tackle boxes were made of plastic.

[JayJuanGee]

Are we unpoor now?

instant ramen with eggs and green onion it is...  sushi time

I'm going for the full Bento box.

you actually have the box? ok mr moneybags.

i just eat off the floor

Actually it's just an empty, old tackle box I filled with ramen and some mixed frozen veggies.  You can't even tell the difference.

bento is usually stainless steel. my tackle boxes were not.  

You're thinking of your old lunchbox!  

Tackle boxes were made of plastic.

Many of us know that Phil is not any kind of a spring chicken. I have information to know that he barely even knew about plastics until he was in his early 20s.

Here's a video capture of young Phil.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxihhBzCjk

Sorry to dox, but Phil's real name is Ben.