Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

I get your point because from the swearing in of trump till now the emphasis has been on crypto currency and not Bitcoin well let see how things will turn out in the coming days because trump is a politician plus trump has his own Coin that he has launched the same thing for Elon musk let it not be what am thinking about because trump may be using the word crypto currency so as to favour his Coin and that of his friend musk but let see what he has for Bitcoin because in his campaign promises Trump promised to make America the Bitcoin hob of the world

I do think Trump's coin is not likely a worry because it seems like it's more of a money-raising stunt. Unfortunately, there's plenty of shitcoins to muddy the issue and it seems not unlikely that it could be some basket of coins ultimately which will, of course, end up being damaging to the concept. I think pre-mined shit will likely (hopefully) meet with some kind of legal resistance.


I actually have some Ripple from the giveaway. In theory. But I have no recollection of the account details and when I went to their site to see if anything jogged my memory, there doesn't even seem to be any way to recall those wallets.

Then there was the time I had to rescue my ETH using javascript from archive.org.

Pure shittery.

On an issue like this, which doesn't involve the USA directly, I think even the allies could go their own way.

I'd expect the UK to implement a CBDC because it's an easy way to unperson someone. France, Germany and maybe Italy also seem possible candidates.

[Biodom]

On an issue like this, which doesn't involve the USA directly, I think even the allies could go their own way.

No they will follow the USA on it but if and when a crypto winter comes they will switch to cbdc.

To me we get 3-5 years here and it may turn really bad after that.

but I am fairly sure about the next 3-5 years.


which of course is a first for me.

I do not write about 3-5 years of goodness for crypto (crypto is the trumpeter's word not mine)

Ever so take it with a grain of salt or maybe a whole salt shaker.

Brilliant, @phil
A small correction...maybe 3-3.5 years...before the 'fear' of what comes next...the opposite wave of executive orders, maybe.

that said, i made the following conclusions for myself;

1. New pres does not care about bitcoin per se
2. Because of #1, I don't see a tax free bitcoin..not even a 1% chance.
3. Because of #2, a sell plan needs to be developed and executed within the next 3-3.5 years.
But, heck, i probably just sell some in a panic in 2026 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Donald Trump has signed an executive order to develop a national digital asset stockpile and a crypto working group.

[...image removed...]

Crypto... As expected. At least Ross got his pardon. Not that he's a saint, but 2 x life + 40 yrs was far too harsh. In a few years' time he'll be a millionaire (if he isn't already).

[...as above...]

I would’ve rather seen a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, but I guess politicians all have their own pet projects they want to pump. The way of the world. Still, you have to take a win when you get them and that’s what this is for Bitcoin. I think Solana and Ethereum holders are being given a gift on the back of Bitcoin, but that’s ok. This is the birth of a new asset class.

Forget BSR. It's CSR now. The new trend. SOL, ETH, XRP and all...

So thanks to the trumpeter we now have to talk shitcoinery or fall behind the times.

Okay disclosure of my shitcoinery

Eth = No
Solana = yes
Doge = yes
Ltc = yes

along with some small others.

btc = 90% of my crypto

shitcoins = 10% of my crypto

So lets all thank the trumpeter for ending DEI but picking Crypto over BTC

OK, I'll come clean too:

XMR = Yes <-- For anonymity -- I don't consider Monero a shitcoin. It's an extremely capable coin for privacy. A beautiful design.

LTC = Yes <-- Bought some in the early days, left them alone -- Would have gained much more had I bought BTC instead.

---

BTC > 99% of my portfolio

XMR+LTC < 1% of my portfolio

You are like Sir Galahad comparing to some other sinners around here, lol
Although, I expect to never even contemplating selling bitcoin BEFORE I sell something else.

[cAPSLOCK]

We are going to move big one way or another i think. ..

I predict shitcoins and possibly cap gains as topics...

HoDL.

Bitcoin wins.

[Biodom]

It's bigger than the Bitcoin reserve.

Indeed.
But I would say that everything this evening was bigger than the BSR.
Don't forget that this evening, Trump has killed CBDC not only in the US but globally.

Custody of bitcoin by banks:

You:
Take some of my bitcoin for custody, please.

A bank:
1. Where did you get it, mofo?
2. Do you have a written proof of it's purity followed by a notarized affidavit?
3. What are these satoshis sent from multiple wallets of dubious origin, eh?

Get outta here! SAR, SAR....Saaaar!

[d_eddie]

I actually have some Ripple from the giveaway.

I missed that, but collected some Stellar. Sold them long ago for bitcoin.

On an issue like this, which doesn't involve the USA directly, I think even the allies could go their own way.

I'd expect the UK to implement a CBDC because it's an easy way to unperson someone. France, Germany and maybe Italy also seem possible candidates.

The UK might do as they please, and maybe they will. On the other hand, France, Germany or Italy need to sway the ECB or it's a no go. And if/when it happens, the other countries in the Euro will have to accept the resulting digital currency, which means let their citizen use it (or force them to, more likely). There is some pressure to do so. The ECB appears to hate bitcoin more than other central banks - see some of the papers published by a few ECB folks. A digital euro may help "solve the bitcoin problem". My opinion is that the USA (or the new president) won't care much or at all.

[d_eddie]

Custody of bitcoin by banks:

You:
Take some of my bitcoin for custody, please.

A bank:
1. Sure, send it to this address.

(Some time later)

You:

Give me back some of my bitcoin, please. You may send it to this address.

The bank:
1. Where did you get it, mofo?
2. Do you have a written proof of it's purity followed by a notarized affidavit?
3. What are these satoshis sent from multiple wallets of dubious origin, eh?

Your story was incomplete. I took the liberty and fixed it.

[nutildah]

It's bigger than the Bitcoin reserve.

Bullish

This defeats the entire purpose of Bitcoin but OK.

[JayJuanGee]

Dumpster and/or Dumbster

Same guy.

yeah I prefer musky trumpeter ,but it is a bit insulting to Louie and Miles.

Have to play around a bit and improve that nickname.

I have to think about it too.  It can be difficult to figure out whether how much he is damaging is outweighing any benefit that might come from his various self-dealings, and surely even folks who supported him (or voted for him or acted like he was the best thing since sliced bread) sometimes act shocked about some of his actions, which surely can be quite difficult to defend someone who blanketedly just says that it's o.k. that you guys did all that violence on my behalf back in the day that I was crying and lying about the unfairness and injustices of the world and sure some people were hurt along the way.. .. You can get out of jail for free, just like I did... blah blah blah.. lying to himself or lying to others in terms of ongoingly proclaiming that he (Trump/dumb/dump/whiner/narcissist) is the "true" or "most important" victim that needs sympathy.. blah blah blah.  Not easy to boil down into potentially a couple of rhyming words....and I hate to even say or think nice things about him.. but there are some facts that are positives... which surely freeing of Ross is one of them, and potentially some of the unclassifying of some government documents might be helpful, perhaps..even though simultaneously he is in the process of trying to snuff out records/documents/proceedings that relate to his own obvious criminal behaviors.. that we are not supposed to be thinking about, as if his bullying, thug criminal ways of thinking are suddenly going to become pure, including wanting to snuff out a bishop over words and thoughts, too.. and there could be no proper bishop who is a woman, right? right? right?

If Ross really has access to  430 BTC, he could sell perpetually at a rate of 10% per year based on the 200-WMA, which would largely be currently around close to $1.9 million per year ($160k per month) which and so that should be more than enough income.

Eggxactly. What's the essence of owning such amount and not been able to navigate himself in current society.
He has pretty lost a decade of its life and would some funds to settle.

I was thinking about my earlier post on this particular topic, and I had mentioned that Ross could fairly easily get by with 1/4 that 430 BTC amount, and probably a more realistic assessment is that many folks would be at default entry-level fuck you status with merely 1/20th that amount, which would be 21.5 BTC, and so referring to the same link that I provide in the above post, 21.5 BTC would still result in a 200-WMA value of $935k, which I would assert that is perpetually sustainable with a 10% per year withdrawal rate which would be $93.5k per year and $7,800 per month. 

Who couldn't figure out ways to reasonably and practically live off of a passive income of $7,800 per month?   

And, surely if a person wanted to be conservative with his BTC withdrawal and ONLY withdraw around $6k per month, I am pretty confident that the BTC value would be rising way faster than the rate of withdrawal and after a few years there would be enough of a value cushion in the BTC holdings that there likely would be justification to increase the withdrawal rate to even higher than $7,800 per month... but surely, some of these ways of calculating BTC sustainable withdrawal rates are still somewhat new/novel (I might have invented some of them my lil selfie), so it may take a bit of time to accustom ourselves to such sustainable withdrawal formulas that actually fit our lil precious, as an asset in our investment portfolio.

I wonder how many cryptos here today will be here in five years, ten, twenty or fifty years? In the history of technology few companies take the lead and keep it. The ones that have like Apple and Microsoft make massive amounts of money.

Few crypto projects make any money. They are unprofitable and overpriced so will fall by the way side in such a dynamic space, replaced by smarter, leaner, better solutions.
Ethereum or Solana may be king but both have issues because they are old technology. In years to come as blockchain is more understood Ethereum will be challenged. I'm betting on the one with best odds to be here in fifty, a hundred, a thousand years time.

Bitcoin

Wow.. you really appear lost.

https://x.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1882461591222063171
Not the worst speech

Bitcoin instead of crypto would have been better though

Does anyone think he even knows the difference? Everyone needs to get used to the fact that he will be mentioning "crypto" more and more, and Bitcoin less and less.

Well duh why be a btc maxer when you can do you own meme and make a few billion dollars.

The down side of this is very simple if crushing btc makes more money for him than boosting btc he will  crush btc.

He does not have a chance of crushing BTC, yet he surely can attempt to play both sides of the fence and take advantage of various ambiguities... whether you become a casualty of his little games may well be based on whether you decide to play...and surely, there are going to be BTC price swings in both directions that might partially come from that little twat or some other possible shenanigans of others who might play on similar themes (whether coordinated or just happening to be in the same place at the same time).

I am not going to proclaim myself as exempt from being affected and/or potentially damaged (or benefited) by either the behaviors of that disingenuine twat or my own behaviors that might be preemptive or responsive.

https://x.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1882461591222063171
Not the worst speech

Bitcoin instead of crypto would have been better though

Does anyone think he even knows the difference? Everyone needs to get used to the fact that he will be mentioning "crypto" more and more, and Bitcoin less and less.

Crypto is very much similar to digital fiat that can be controlled and manipulated by governments. In presence of crypto, why would any government go for decentralised Bitcoin that they can't control and manipulate?

Even though many of us dislike devolving into shitcoin talk, you make a decent point about ways governments will talk around bitcoin, and so we may or may not even be able to determine certain attacks or certain defenses that might be needed...so surely there could be questions about whether bitcoin is the Trojan horse or whether governments will be able to Trojan horse their way into the inner bitcoin circles (to the extent that inner bitcoin circles actually exist in bitcoin that would be attackable in ways that would be beneficial to the attacker who may or may not be incentivize to kill or to enlamen the golden goose)..

[Biodom]

interesting...from reddit

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1i898x8/interesting/

J'Accuse type stuff...

[cAPSLOCK]

https://njump.me/nevent1qqstzcu5tv3hgsqpz207wxggr07ealkeha6p2l03wvr4dgssjamjq7szyrprpmwnfjjusvvt73vj4szkeh3h2xwnjhqfqnphagwx2zu26jn3yqcyqqqqqpsn7u0lt


Ross.

[Richy_T]

The UK might do as they please, and maybe they will. On the other hand, France, Germany or Italy need to sway the ECB or it's a no go. And if/when it happens, the other countries in the Euro will have to accept the resulting digital currency, which means let their citizen use it (or force them to, more likely). There is some pressure to do so. The ECB appears to hate bitcoin more than other central banks - see some of the papers published by a few ECB folks. A digital euro may help "solve the bitcoin problem". My opinion is that the USA (or the new president) won't care much or at all.

Fair take. I completely failed to take account of the EU.

[Greyhats]

Hmm so if I understand this correctly

2009 - Present: Purchase BTC via an exchange, store in your wallet(YourKeysYourCoin)
2019 - Present: Purchase BTC wrapped in some shitcoin, store in your shitcoinwallet(YourKeysYourShitcoin)
2020 - Present: Purchase IOU for BTC via MSTR stock purchase, stored in MSTR wallets(NYKNYC)
2024 - Present: Purchase IOU for BTC via an ETF, stored in ETF companies wallets(NYKNYC)
2025 - Present: Purchase IOU for BTC from your bank, stored in bank's wallets(NYKNYC)


Is it right to say that more counter party risk options are being pushed out? I guess ultimately the purchaser doesn't have to use any onramp other than YKYC but there will always be people who choose convenience over security. Is the next blackswan event more than likely going to a failure in one of these on ramps do you think?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

https://x.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1882461591222063171
Not the worst speech

Bitcoin instead of crypto would have been better though

Does anyone think he even knows the difference? Everyone needs to get used to the fact that he will be mentioning "crypto" more and more, and Bitcoin less and less.

With a possible btc reserve and be surrounded with some knowledgeable people I think btc won’t be less and less but IS the main point

To many try to find some bad stuff in all he does, but at this time he is doing very OK in terms of BTC imho
So not always drink the negativity cool aid and appreciate a bit as well.

I don't mind giving that dweeb some credit, yet it seems quite problematic to actually believe he is honest when he has shown he is not.

Sure, some of the things he is doing is quite positive for bitcoin, and I find the Ross release as quite a touching act with very material and symbolic results.  Trump is still a quite problematic character in a lot of ways - a lot of it comes from his own behaviors.. including that it seems that many of us should be skeptical of people in power, even if they might end up doing some things that are actually fair, just and/or the right thing to do.

To many try to find some bad stuff in all he does, but at this time he is doing very OK in terms of BTC imho

hey much as i dislike some policies he has at the same time my net worth has gone up rather nicely since he was elected. hard to not like that one.

I am pretty confident that uie pooie likely would have been o..k either way...whether you would have had to eat your Ramen plain or you are able to throw a shrimp or two in there due to our redheaded narcissist lil buddy.

 

At least Ross got his pardon. Not that he's a saint, but 2 x life + 40 yrs was far too harsh. In a few years' time he'll be a millionaire (if he isn't already).

I am pretty sure that even if Ross were starting at zero, he is surely not going to end up flipping burgers at McDs.

It will be interesting to see if he chooses to involve himself in any bitcoin projects, bitcoin related project or if he chooses to keep a low profile.

It could be the case that he chooses to take on an identity or maybe to contribute in ways that are less attributable to him.  He seems like a pretty interesting and talented kind of guy, and I surely don't buy the various stories about him supposedly agreeing to a hit, especially since the allegation was made and then it was dropped, so there likely were a lot of questions regarding whether some of Ross's communications were really his own or that there might have been folks who were saying things and making it look like Ross's communications.

In any event, Ross is totally pardoned and expunged, which I consider the odds to be pretty great that he is not in any kind of category that is even close to many of actual provenly violent thugs that Trump blanketedly pardoned the day before.

On an issue like this, which doesn't involve the USA directly, I think even the allies could go their own way.

No they will follow the USA on it but if and when a crypto winter comes they will switch to cbdc.

To me we get 3-5 years here and it may turn really bad after that.
but I am fairly sure about the next 3-5 years.
which of course is a first for me.

I do not write about 3-5 years of goodness for crypto (crypto is the trumpeter's word not mine)
Ever so take it with a grain of salt or maybe a whole salt shaker.

Brilliant, @phil
A small correction...maybe 3-3.5 years...before the 'fear' of what comes next...the opposite wave of executive orders, maybe.

that said, i made the following conclusions for myself;

1. New pres does not care about bitcoin per se
2. Because of #1, I don't see a tax free bitcoin..not even a 1% chance.
3. Because of #2, a sell plan needs to be developed and executed within the next 3-3.5 years.
But, heck, i probably just sell some in a panic in 2026 

Holy shit Biodom.  You are a nutjob!!!  Maybe you and Phil both?.. hahahahaha  .. had to get a little dig in at Phillip too, even though you, Biodom, make Phillip look normal and/or within some kind of realm of rational.

A sell plan for the reasons that you outlined?   Oh gawd. 

Speaking of Gawd..... Gawd save you from ur lil selfie..  #nohomo 



 

Custody of bitcoin by banks:
You:
Take some of my bitcoin for custody, please.

A bank:
1. Sure, send it to this address.

(Some time later)
You:

Give me back some of my bitcoin, please. You may send it to this address.

The bank:
1. Where did you get it, mofo?
2. Do you have a written proof of it's purity followed by a notarized affidavit?
3. What are these satoshis sent from multiple wallets of dubious origin, eh?

Your story was incomplete. I took the liberty and fixed it.

For sure.  Just to reiterate.  Your "friendly neighborhood" bank would not have any problem taking your lil precious.

Hmm so if I understand this correctly
2009 - Present: Purchase BTC via an exchange, store in your wallet(YourKeysYourCoin)
2019 - Present: Purchase BTC wrapped in some shitcoin, store in your shitcoinwallet(YourKeysYourShitcoin)
2020 - Present: Purchase IOU for BTC via MSTR stock purchase, stored in MSTR wallets(NYKNYC)
2024 - Present: Purchase IOU for BTC via an ETF, stored in ETF companies wallets(NYKNYC)
2025 - Present: Purchase IOU for BTC from your bank, stored in bank's wallets(NYKNYC)
Is it right to say that more counter party risk options are being pushed out? I guess ultimately the purchaser doesn't have to use any onramp other than YKYC but there will always be people who choose convenience over security. Is the next blackswan event more than likely going to a failure in one of these on ramps do you think?

Getting bitcoin through Peer to peer has always been available in some kind of way, and there are ways that miners get coins too, yet several of the miners are currently going through KYC when involved with many of the pools, which wasn't always the case.

Exchanges and various third party rug pulls have frequently happened, so surely we would expect that there will be some future third party rug pulls  or hacks or creation of paper bitcoin, yet it would not necessarily need to rise to the level of a black swan kind of event, but would reinforce ideas of keeping some portion of your coins (perhaps 90% or more) in your own custody, even though we know that self-custody can have some of its own complications, and so a decent number of coins have been lost or reallocated to someone else due to self-custody mistakes.

There surely are learning curves for many of us, even if we have been in bitcoin for a while, there can be challenges regarding how we hold our coins, how we do our transactions, whether we mine  or run a node and various ways that we might interact with bitcoin directly, or use various third party custodian solutions or some folks have more technical abilities to learn and share information to help less technical people.  Even if we figure out some ways to increase our peer to peer avenues of using our bitcoin might be helpful to the various bitcoin systems.

[Biodom]

A sell plan for the reasons that you outlined?   Oh gawd.  

Speaking of Gawd..... Gawd save you from ur lil selfie..  #nohomo  

Dude, it is much better to sell some at 23.8% max cap gains tax during current admin OR sell some at 43.4% tax (43.4=39.6+ 3.8 NIIT; plus, maybe even unrealized gains taxes).
Nobody says anything about tomorrow ...3-3.5 years (four would be pushing it into potentially an alternative admin) seem optimal.

[JayJuanGee]

A sell plan for the reasons that you outlined?   Oh gawd.  

Speaking of Gawd..... Gawd save you from ur lil selfie..  #nohomo  

Dude, it is much better to sell some at 23.8% max cap gains tax during current admin OR sell some at 43.4% tax (43.4=39.6+ 3.8 NIIT; plus, maybe even unrealized gains taxes).
Nobody says anything about tomorrow ...3-3.5 years (four would be pushing it into potentially an alternative admin) seem optimal.

I am glad that you are planning so far in advance.

Nothing wrong with that.

right?


right?



rrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiigggggghhhhhhtttttt?



 

[laspol65]

https://njump.me/nevent1qqstzcu5tv3hgsqpz207wxggr07ealkeha6p2l03wvr4dgssjamjq7szyrprpmwnfjjusvvt73vj4szkeh3h2xwnjhqfqnphagwx2zu26jn3yqcyqqqqqpsn7u0lt

Ross.

Ross Ulbricht Will roar Like Bitcoin.
That is why he must take a second chance.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com