Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Yeah, i recognized that at the time "AI" is not even capable to sum up referenced results correctly.
So, google AI is giving false, sometimes dangerous advice, which isn't even backed by the linked sources.
Real AI is still vapor. It always was. Hollywood fiction.

Search ai is wrong a lot.

AI is pretty fucked up at the moment as it can not correctly compare things and figure out what is garbage worthless info.

[cAPSLOCK]

After some contemplation, reading, and a little shitposting I have come to the conclusion that the op_return saga is lose/lose and mostly meaningless.  Probably.

SO many competing things are true.

I typed a LOT of stuff... and then deleted it.


Here is the thumbnail...

A few Core Devs seem to be assholes.
Core Devs are not all bad.  It's an impossible job to please everyone.
Jameson Lopp is acting like a super duper asshole ("My investments in various companies are a 'rounding error' to my bitcoin holdings (lol lol))
Lopp has contributed.
Luke Dashjr is crazy and sees everything is extreme black and white.  Also smart.
Luke has contributed.
Luke is the ONLY ONE contributing and guiding Knots.
His acolytes (like Bitcoinmechanic) are likely right about some things and wrong about others.
Few real bitcoinners want spam on the blockchain.
Many devs for BTC CORE think PR this AVOIDS the worst parts of spam.

BITCOIN does not care.
BITCOIN is antifragile.
If BITCOIN cannot survive this then it was doomed from day 1.

There.

I will have changed my mind and will type ENTIRELY different things tomorrow.

Maybe.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick
I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office
I think it was Hayes's blog

Here, found it. December 18, 2024. It might have been mentioned by someone else earlier on, during sleepy Joe's reign, but it wouldn't have had the same resonance.

Currently, gold is valued at $42.22/oz on the American balance sheet. Technically speaking, the Treasury issues a gold certificate to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury values at $42.22/oz.

Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed receives a dollar credit, which can be spent on the economy. The larger the devaluation, the higher the TGA balance immediately grows.

This makes sense because, essentially, dollars are being created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. Every $3,824/oz increase in the statutory price of gold generates a $1 trillion increase in the TGA. For example, adjusting the carrying cost to the current spot price of gold would generate a $695 billion TGA credit.

(My emphasis)

Keep in mind Bessent is the puppet master now.  Powell is dubbed towel boy (or worse) because he can't and won't do much, despite the apparent position of absolute power he seems to hold. It's the curse of the Fed chair: nominally independent, but factually in serfdom to politics.

Personally, I don't think this will happen. There are subtler ways of printing without printing, and my guess is they will be picked over the very apparent and likely too noisy gold accounting trick.

[cAPSLOCK]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick
I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office
I think it was Hayes's blog

Here, found it. December 18, 2024. It might have been mentioned by someone else earlier on, during sleepy Joe's reign, but it wouldn't have had the same resonance.

Currently, gold is valued at $42.22/oz on the American balance sheet. Technically speaking, the Treasury issues a gold certificate to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury values at $42.22/oz.

Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed receives a dollar credit, which can be spent on the economy. The larger the devaluation, the higher the TGA balance immediately grows.

This makes sense because, essentially, dollars are being created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. Every $3,824/oz increase in the statutory price of gold generates a $1 trillion increase in the TGA. For example, adjusting the carrying cost to the current spot price of gold would generate a $695 billion TGA credit.

(My emphasis)

Keep in mind Bessent is the puppet master now.  Powell is dubbed towel boy (or worse) because he can't and won't do much, despite the apparent position of absolute power he seems to hold. It's the curse of the Fed chair: nominally independent, but factually in serfdom to politics.

Personally, I don't think this will happen. There are subtler ways of printing without printing, and my guess is they will be picked over the very apparent and likely too noisy gold accounting trick.

Bessant is an interesting and enigmatic fellow.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Volgastallion]

Im tired of hearing in the normal world (outside our BTC world) so many idiots talking and repeating like parlors "the best investment is always gold, you never lose value".

Lets analize this phrase a little because if some of this people start to at least understand what they are saying first can come to a good conclusion.

First of all in the same phrase you can find the answer and the contradiction, if is the best investment how it can never lose his value? Or better to point out, if he never lose value is that is not a investment itself it only not lose value, and that makes it a reserve of value nothing more. They are confused between the nominal price against  FIAT money, but its not worth more its only not losing his value.

Some fools never understand a pretty basic concept, the money is to BUY goods and Services, so no matter the equivalence against another coin or FIAT that is only for an easy accountabilitie but the main fact is how much good and services you can buy with the same at determinate time, more or less?.

In change of gold, BTC not only is a reserve of value is it a proper investment and he keeps gaining value not only because of his deflacionary idea, but also because against an equivalence FIAT or good and service you are gonna be buying and having more of that with the same amount of BTC.

IF you take gold and adjust it with the inflation you are gonna see it, you gain nothing at all. But if instead of gold you buy BTC and you adjust it by inflation.... well surprise surprise look how much more did you have.

[Hueristic]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick (without actually selling any), I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office. I think it was Hayes's blog - one of my preferred sources for bitcoin relevant macro analysis - but I wouldn't bet my family jewels on that. At any rate, it's not a new idea, as it's been mentioned several times after Biden went to sleep.

They located the philosophers stone!

Scientists Discover a Fungus That Produces Real Gold — And You Can Grow It at Home

https://techoreon.com/discovery-of-fungus-producing-real-gold-grow-at-home/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Satofan44]

A few Core Devs seem to be assholes.

Plenty of them are ego tripping assholes. They could use a big dose of humility. This OP_RETURN thing is a complete disaster and stupid. Great use of time, but I guess if someone else pays your bills who cares?  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick (without actually selling any), I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office. I think it was Hayes's blog - one of my preferred sources for bitcoin relevant macro analysis - but I wouldn't bet my family jewels on that. At any rate, it's not a new idea, as it's been mentioned several times after Biden went to sleep.

They located the philosophers stone!

Scientists Discover a Fungus That Produces Real Gold — And You Can Grow It at Home

https://techoreon.com/discovery-of-fungus-producing-real-gold-grow-at-home/

Wow! That's amazing, bro!

[Biodom]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick
I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office
I think it was Hayes's blog

Here, found it. December 18, 2024. It might have been mentioned by someone else earlier on, during sleepy Joe's reign, but it wouldn't have had the same resonance.

Currently, gold is valued at $42.22/oz on the American balance sheet. Technically speaking, the Treasury issues a gold certificate to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury values at $42.22/oz.

Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed receives a dollar credit, which can be spent on the economy. The larger the devaluation, the higher the TGA balance immediately grows.

This makes sense because, essentially, dollars are being created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. Every $3,824/oz increase in the statutory price of gold generates a $1 trillion increase in the TGA. For example, adjusting the carrying cost to the current spot price of gold would generate a $695 billion TGA credit.

(My emphasis)

Keep in mind Bessent is the puppet master now.  Powell is dubbed towel boy (or worse) because he can't and won't do much, despite the apparent position of absolute power he seems to hold. It's the curse of the Fed chair: nominally independent, but factually in serfdom to politics.

Personally, I don't think this will happen. There are subtler ways of printing without printing, and my guess is they will be picked over the very apparent and likely too noisy gold accounting trick.

Bessant is an interesting and enigmatic fellow.

Yeah, he is interesting. When he speaks, I seem to understand where he is going with it..and he is quite polite, it seems, albeit there were rumors of F-words flying around during his alleged confrontation with Elon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Regarding the Arizona bill, Governor Hobbs is known to veto most of the bills, let's not get our hopes up there.

Nvidia is new to me, do you have any sources?
The US selling gold to buy bitcoin -- I believe it when I see it.

Hobbs is an incompetent idiot, but she won’t alienate Bitcoiners by vetoing this bill. It’ll pass automatically on Monday. That’s what I’m expecting.

The Nvidia rumor is all over X. If there is no truth to it, they got a lot of folks to repeat it.

The rumor I’m reading is that the United States will revalue their gold to current prices giving them a $900 billion dollar increase on their books, which they will use to sell off $100 billion and invest in Bitcoin. I think the old multiple of an investment’s effect on market cap is 15? If so, this sends us to $170K this year by itself. Add in $10 billion in short covering, $50 billion in buying from Strategy, potentially $100 billion from other large companies, billions from other governments, retail, banks… You can see the path to $444K beginning to materialize. You crazy bastards are going to get rich!

4x to 5x from here is not that outrageous, yet i suppose that we probably would have to count the top from somewhere around our jumping off point, which I would like to suggest to be $27k from October 2023 for this particular cycle.. so then $444k would be right around 16.5x.. which may well be the same (or similar) to our 2021 run if we count $69k as our top, and $4,200 from April 1, 2019 as our jumping off point.

These kinds of patterns are difficult to rely upon as a predictor, and they seem a bit incredible to set forth such scenarios prior to their happening.   I have recently had conversations in the real world with no coiners (bitcoin skeptics) about bitcoin reaching $1 million anywhere between 1 year and 8 years, and they look at me like I am crazy, and frequently I will proclaim that they hardly have any credibility or knowledge on the matter, and I may have had even been talking with them about bitcoin for a couple of cycles (or more) already, and they still have not taken much if any actions to establish a reasonable bitcoin allocation... and even if they had taken some kind of a reasonable bitcoin position 8 years previously, they would be in a much better position to have insurance against quite a bit of the current dollar debasement that we are ongoignly witnessing.  

I don't know why some people are so skeptical to understand that bitcoin is an asset to throw some value into for the future. I feel they don't see bitcoin from your own perspective and they also don't want to accept the fact that the price of bitcoin will increase overtime. It is these same people that will say that you are lucky to invest in bitcoin if bitcoin price reaches $1 million because they failed to take advantage of your knowledge in bitcoin and invest with as little as $10 using DCA overtime due to the lack of confidence in bitcoin.

There is ONLY so much that any of us can do in order to help folks to get started in bitcoin with some amount of money that would be reasonable to them.  On a regular basis between mid-2014 through 2016, I would regularly send gifts of anywhere between $5 and $20, but then if someone had a birthday or a high school graduation, I would send something like $80, and so there were some of those transactions that would have gone up in value a lot over the years... I do still send some gifts from time to time, so I guess that I am not completely out of the practice of sending a gift if someone I know sets up a bitcoin wallet..

Ongoingly, it remains difficult to get folks to really buy into bitcoin and then to study it and even to work on setting up private wallets... and yeah, frequently if they set up some kind of a wallet through a third party, like an exchange they will feel better, even though many of us know that they likely need to move their value to private wallets after they build up their stack for some time..maybe once it gets above a certain amount such as $500 or $5k, then maybe at that point they would make sure to learn about private ways of holding their BTC. 

There are some easy routes to setting up wallets, yet when we get into back ups and various ways to protect our coins, admittedly, these matters can become complicated.... and a certain level of adventure seems to be needed for those choosing to buy bitcoin and then to move it into some kind of self custody.

As for the CEX/OTC issue, i don't plan to sell much on the way up, at least too little to qualify as serious OTC client, i guess.
On the other hand, my ladders are set up for medium term, with enough spare powder to shoot later. It's not that i would lose so much, but it would be hard having to watch the bubble burst with only market-sell opportunities that fail because of liquidity issues and/or CEX failure.
I will still keep most of my corn for the far future, like tens of years from now.

I have frequently considered that it is good to have a few ways of selling coins through exchanges and/or in private ways...and it can be difficult to find new sources. Of course, fees are going to vary, and it seems to me that if there was a bit of a free market, then we would see all kinds of ways to get in touch with folks to buy and sell privately, and Local bitcoins was a good thing, while it existed... and it would be nice to have similar kinds of resources available, especially if traveling or visiting other locations... but even locally, if any of us were to be able to set up ways to directly interact with other bitcoiners to buy and sell goods and services.  That would also be good.

[xhomerx10]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick (without actually selling any), I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office. I think it was Hayes's blog - one of my preferred sources for bitcoin relevant macro analysis - but I wouldn't bet my family jewels on that. At any rate, it's not a new idea, as it's been mentioned several times after Biden went to sleep.

They located the philosophers stone!

Scientists Discover a Fungus That Produces Real Gold — And You Can Grow It at Home

https://techoreon.com/discovery-of-fungus-producing-real-gold-grow-at-home/

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hossain Risfa]

The $BTC pump is just getting started..