Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

As for the CEX/OTC issue, i don't plan to sell much on the way up, at least too little to qualify as serious OTC client, i guess.
On the other hand, my ladders are set up for medium term, with enough spare powder to shoot later. It's not that i would lose so much, but it would be hard having to watch the bubble burst with only market-sell opportunities that fail because of liquidity issues and/or CEX failure.
I will still keep most of my corn for the far future, like tens of years from now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Krubster]

Regarding the Arizona bill, Governor Hobbs is known to veto most of the bills, let's not get our hopes up there.

Nvidia is new to me, do you have any sources?

The US selling gold to buy bitcoin -- I believe it when I see it.

Hobbs is an incompetent idiot, but she won’t alienate Bitcoiners by vetoing this bill. It’ll pass automatically on Monday. That’s what I’m expecting.

The Nvidia rumor is all over X. If there is no truth to it, they got a lot of folks to repeat it.

The rumor I’m reading is that the United States will revalue their gold to current prices giving them a $900 billion dollar increase on their books, which they will use to sell off $100 billion and invest in Bitcoin. I think the old multiple of an investment’s effect on market cap is 15? If so, this sends us to $170K this year by itself. Add in $10 billion in short covering, $50 billion in buying from Strategy, potentially $100 billion from other large companies, billions from other governments, retail, banks… You can see the path to $444K beginning to materialize. You crazy bastards are going to get rich!

Thanks for your insight. I've read up on the Nvidia rumors, that's huge if true. The US, even bigger. Interesting times.

[d_eddie]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick (without actually selling any), I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office. I think it was Hayes's blog - one of my preferred sources for bitcoin relevant macro analysis - but I wouldn't bet my family jewels on that. At any rate, it's not a new idea, as it's been mentioned several times after Biden went to sleep.

[JimboToronto]

The Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC correlation (with a lag) is running perfectly still. $150,000+ by mid July?

I can definitely live with that.

....

I might even buy 2-3 chickens so I can have egg in my ramen every single day! ......what time to be alive!

You mean 2 or 3? The profligacy... some people are shameless!

Maybe he meant between 2 and 3.

2 for laying eggs and a quarter or half chicken to dice up to really turn the ramen into a celebratory feast.

Or you can really live it up and go Jamaican:



*no homo*

[d_eddie]

This might be *nohomo*, but the "cock flavour" thingy is a turnoff anyway.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Its going to be fun when AI is running the world.

tl;dr:

Human: Is JTAG a serial interface?

   AI: Yes, it's a serial interface.

Human: Hmm... Is it really serial though?

   AI: Actually, no, it's a parallel interface.

Human: Oh. But how many bits does it simultaneously transfer?

   AI: It transfers 1 bit at a time, like a serial interface.

Human: OK, so it's a serial interface then.

   AI: Yes, it's a serial interface.

Human: But, there are many signal involved (TCK, TMS, TDI, TDO).

   AI: Yes, so this means JTAG is actually a parallel interface.

Human: Right, but there is still 1 bit being transferred per clock cycle.

   AI: You're right about that. This means it's a serial interface.

This has happened to me all too many times. More often than not, I'm able to steer the AI towards several different, conflicting answers to a specific question. In its current state (at least the versions accessible to the public), I don't think AI can be used as a reliable source of information, even on technical questions where the correct answer is usually indisputable, as in the above example. The sad (and potentially dangerous) thing is that many people blindly use AI to "do the work" for them, without even trying to cross-check the content it spews out. I have a colleague at work, with a Ph.D. in physics, of all things, who, when asked to review a paper for a journal, sometimes can't even be bothered to read it, but just lets ChatGPT comment on it and simply submits the response to the editors. Can you imagine? Your submitted paper, which you worked really hard to write, experiments performed, etc., at the mercy of an AI engine...

If you want to see how clever (or not) ChatGPT really is, watch this video (may have posted it before, can't remember). It delves into how an AI "thinks" (at least as it pertains to image generation), and its relation to empiricism, as introduced by Scottish philosopher David Hume nearly 300 years ago.

YouTube — Why Can’t ChatGPT Draw a Full Glass of Wine?

[philipma1957]

Yeah, i recognized that at the time "AI" is not even capable to sum up referenced results correctly.
So, google AI is giving false, sometimes dangerous advice, which isn't even backed by the linked sources.
Real AI is still vapor. It always was. Hollywood fiction.

Search ai is wrong a lot.

AI is pretty fucked up at the moment as it can not correctly compare things and figure out what is garbage worthless info.

[cAPSLOCK]

After some contemplation, reading, and a little shitposting I have come to the conclusion that the op_return saga is lose/lose and mostly meaningless.  Probably.

SO many competing things are true.

I typed a LOT of stuff... and then deleted it.


Here is the thumbnail...

A few Core Devs seem to be assholes.
Core Devs are not all bad.  It's an impossible job to please everyone.
Jameson Lopp is acting like a super duper asshole ("My investments in various companies are a 'rounding error' to my bitcoin holdings (lol lol))
Lopp has contributed.
Luke Dashjr is crazy and sees everything is extreme black and white.  Also smart.
Luke has contributed.
Luke is the ONLY ONE contributing and guiding Knots.
His acolytes (like Bitcoinmechanic) are likely right about some things and wrong about others.
Few real bitcoinners want spam on the blockchain.
Many devs for BTC CORE think PR this AVOIDS the worst parts of spam.

BITCOIN does not care.
BITCOIN is antifragile.
If BITCOIN cannot survive this then it was doomed from day 1.

There.

I will have changed my mind and will type ENTIRELY different things tomorrow.

Maybe.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick
I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office
I think it was Hayes's blog

Here, found it. December 18, 2024. It might have been mentioned by someone else earlier on, during sleepy Joe's reign, but it wouldn't have had the same resonance.

Currently, gold is valued at $42.22/oz on the American balance sheet. Technically speaking, the Treasury issues a gold certificate to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury values at $42.22/oz.

Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed receives a dollar credit, which can be spent on the economy. The larger the devaluation, the higher the TGA balance immediately grows.

This makes sense because, essentially, dollars are being created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. Every $3,824/oz increase in the statutory price of gold generates a $1 trillion increase in the TGA. For example, adjusting the carrying cost to the current spot price of gold would generate a $695 billion TGA credit.

(My emphasis)

Keep in mind Bessent is the puppet master now.  Powell is dubbed towel boy (or worse) because he can't and won't do much, despite the apparent position of absolute power he seems to hold. It's the curse of the Fed chair: nominally independent, but factually in serfdom to politics.

Personally, I don't think this will happen. There are subtler ways of printing without printing, and my guess is they will be picked over the very apparent and likely too noisy gold accounting trick.

[cAPSLOCK]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick
I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office
I think it was Hayes's blog

Here, found it. December 18, 2024. It might have been mentioned by someone else earlier on, during sleepy Joe's reign, but it wouldn't have had the same resonance.

Currently, gold is valued at $42.22/oz on the American balance sheet. Technically speaking, the Treasury issues a gold certificate to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury values at $42.22/oz.

Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed receives a dollar credit, which can be spent on the economy. The larger the devaluation, the higher the TGA balance immediately grows.

This makes sense because, essentially, dollars are being created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. Every $3,824/oz increase in the statutory price of gold generates a $1 trillion increase in the TGA. For example, adjusting the carrying cost to the current spot price of gold would generate a $695 billion TGA credit.

(My emphasis)

Keep in mind Bessent is the puppet master now.  Powell is dubbed towel boy (or worse) because he can't and won't do much, despite the apparent position of absolute power he seems to hold. It's the curse of the Fed chair: nominally independent, but factually in serfdom to politics.

Personally, I don't think this will happen. There are subtler ways of printing without printing, and my guess is they will be picked over the very apparent and likely too noisy gold accounting trick.

Bessant is an interesting and enigmatic fellow.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Volgastallion]

Im tired of hearing in the normal world (outside our BTC world) so many idiots talking and repeating like parlors "the best investment is always gold, you never lose value".

Lets analize this phrase a little because if some of this people start to at least understand what they are saying first can come to a good conclusion.

First of all in the same phrase you can find the answer and the contradiction, if is the best investment how it can never lose his value? Or better to point out, if he never lose value is that is not a investment itself it only not lose value, and that makes it a reserve of value nothing more. They are confused between the nominal price against  FIAT money, but its not worth more its only not losing his value.

Some fools never understand a pretty basic concept, the money is to BUY goods and Services, so no matter the equivalence against another coin or FIAT that is only for an easy accountabilitie but the main fact is how much good and services you can buy with the same at determinate time, more or less?.

In change of gold, BTC not only is a reserve of value is it a proper investment and he keeps gaining value not only because of his deflacionary idea, but also because against an equivalence FIAT or good and service you are gonna be buying and having more of that with the same amount of BTC.

IF you take gold and adjust it with the inflation you are gonna see it, you gain nothing at all. But if instead of gold you buy BTC and you adjust it by inflation.... well surprise surprise look how much more did you have.

[Hueristic]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick (without actually selling any), I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office. I think it was Hayes's blog - one of my preferred sources for bitcoin relevant macro analysis - but I wouldn't bet my family jewels on that. At any rate, it's not a new idea, as it's been mentioned several times after Biden went to sleep.

They located the philosophers stone!

Scientists Discover a Fungus That Produces Real Gold — And You Can Grow It at Home

https://techoreon.com/discovery-of-fungus-producing-real-gold-grow-at-home/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Satofan44]

A few Core Devs seem to be assholes.

Plenty of them are ego tripping assholes. They could use a big dose of humility. This OP_RETURN thing is a complete disaster and stupid. Great use of time, but I guess if someone else pays your bills who cares?  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick (without actually selling any), I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office. I think it was Hayes's blog - one of my preferred sources for bitcoin relevant macro analysis - but I wouldn't bet my family jewels on that. At any rate, it's not a new idea, as it's been mentioned several times after Biden went to sleep.

They located the philosophers stone!

Scientists Discover a Fungus That Produces Real Gold — And You Can Grow It at Home

https://techoreon.com/discovery-of-fungus-producing-real-gold-grow-at-home/

Wow! That's amazing, bro!