Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.

This would make little sense, as the futures are more expensive in normal conditions (contango, positive funding rate).

it depends:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/basis-trading.asp

The speculator who takes the opposite side of this trade will have purchased futures contracts for 25 cents per bushel higher than the spot price (the basis). If that speculator hedged their bet by selling contracts at the spot price ($4.00 per bushel), they would now have a position that is long the basis.

From the same source:

In futures trading using a basis trading strategy, an investor would either "long the basis" or "short the basis" depending on if the trader thinks the basis will increase or decrease.

The opposite side of the trade (short the basis, that is, short actual corn and long futures) means the speculator is expecting corn to go down. In a contango market, this is NOT a market neutral strategy. This isn't how smart money generally moves.

This is explained on the complementary page on the same site, documenting the negative basis trade:

The [negative basis, i.e., short corn, long futures] trade is usually done with bonds that are trading at par or at a discount
--snip--
When you short a credit default swap, this means you have bought protection much like an insurance premium. While this might seem counterintuitive, remember that buying protection means you have the right to sell the bond at par value to the seller of the protection in the event of default or another negative credit event. So, buying protection is equal to a short.

(My emphasis and [clarification]).

In other words, there could be speculators who play the negative basis trade, but only as a form of protection (likely they are already long "basis", that is, physical btc), not for actual speculation. Actual speculation in a contango market (a market where futures are more expensive than the "real thing"), again, entails the normal (positive) basis trade.

[Volgastallion]

Or Pope Trump begins end of times and oh well.

Since you mention it, i take the chance to invite people from here for the last time to my latest contest since tomorrow the Conclave starts.

Beat The Conclave.

The late entries can have a better grip since the developing of the hindu and pakistan tensions rising....

[Biodom]

To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.

This would make little sense, as the futures are more expensive in normal conditions (contango, positive funding rate).

it depends:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/basis-trading.asp

The speculator who takes the opposite side of this trade will have purchased futures contracts for 25 cents per bushel higher than the spot price (the basis). If that speculator hedged their bet by selling contracts at the spot price ($4.00 per bushel), they would now have a position that is long the basis.

From the same source:

In futures trading using a basis trading strategy, an investor would either "long the basis" or "short the basis" depending on if the trader thinks the basis will increase or decrease.

The opposite side of the trade (short the basis, that is, short actual corn and long futures) means the speculator is expecting corn to go down. In a contango market, this is NOT a market neutral strategy. This isn't how smart money generally moves.

This is explained on the complementary page on the same site, documenting the negative basis trade:

The [negative basis, i.e., short corn, long futures] trade is usually done with bonds that are trading at par or at a discount
--snip--
When you short a credit default swap, this means you have bought protection much like an insurance premium. While this might seem counterintuitive, remember that buying protection means you have the right to sell the bond at par value to the seller of the protection in the event of default or another negative credit event. So, buying protection is equal to a short.

(My emphasis and [clarification]).

In other words, there could be speculators who play the negative basis trade, but only as a form of protection (likely they are already long "basis", that is, physical btc), not for actual speculation. Actual speculation in a contango market (a market where futures are more expensive than the "real thing"), again, entails the normal (positive) basis trade.

well, maybe they expect backwardation soon.
the long and the short of it...some VERY large party has to be doing some shorting (not sure via which mechanism).
Otherwise, constant large buying and no price movement does not make sense.
My suspects are tether and blackrock.

[d_eddie]

In other words, there could be speculators who play the negative basis trade, but only as a form of protection (likely they are already long "basis", that is, physical btc), not for actual speculation. Actual speculation in a contango market (a market where futures are more expensive than the "real thing"), again, entails the normal (positive) basis trade.

well, maybe they expect backwardation soon.
the long and the short of it...some VERY large party has to be doing some shorting (not sure via which mechanism).
Otherwise, constant large buying and no price movement does not make sense.
My suspects are tether and blackrock.

Indeed, Tether and Blackrock are sure long enough with the real thing to justify getting a little protection.
However, I think all the buying that's going on without moving the market much is to be ascribed more to OGs selling their stash away OTC.

[xhomerx10]

https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/new-hampshire-law-creates-first-state-strategic-bitcoin-reserve

“live free or die”

  I'm all for the NH BSR but "Live free or die" my buttocks!  Have you ever seen the property taxes there?  Sheesh!

[Hueristic]

After re-introducing a failed 2023 proposal to raise the data storage capability of OP_RETURN outputs, critics flagged down the 2025 copycat before it merged into production. Colloquially, some are referring to the surprising incident as a sort of bitcoin OP_RETURN war.

Peter Todd, the creator of PR 32359 on the request of Chaincode Labs’ Antoine Poinsot, affirmed, “ I was asked to open [PR 32359] by an active Core dev because entities like Citrea are using unprunable outputs instead of OP_Return, due to the size limits.”

https://protos.com/bitcoin-devs-in-op_return-war-motivated-by-harm-reduction/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

I did enjoy
Int-bar today
What a match….

[philipma1957]

https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/new-hampshire-law-creates-first-state-strategic-bitcoin-reserve

“live free or die”

  I'm all for the NH BSR but "Live free or die" my buttocks!  Have you ever seen the property taxes there?  Sheesh!

bro the plates are made by jailed prisoners.


but let me fact check that.

bingo found it

https://www.neatorama.com/2008/04/09/oh-the-irony-new-hampshires-live-free-or-die-license-plates-made-by-prisoners/

[Volgastallion]

I did enjoy
Int-bar today
What a match….

WHAT A MATCH, i dont remeber one that good since the Totenham Ajax. With a super crazy end,and not suitable for the faint of heart.

Barcelona have it in their hands after a miracle comeback but between Sommer preventing more goals from Barcelona and the failure in that last play in Barcelona defense make the match goes into an extraordinary over time.

Lamine Yamal what a player, he has no luck today and Sommer prevented him to score, but my god what a player, he dances everyone with the ball.

For which team you were? And tomorrow what did you expect?

Plus i was watching the game and checking X to see India and Pakistan conflict and the BTC standing strong.

[Ambatman]

I did enjoy
Int-bar today
What a match….

The final can't beat this.....
A Real Madrid fan but have to give it to Barcelona
They are still world class despite the loss.

For which team you were? And tomorrow what did you expect?

Personally would prefer Arsenal
It would hurt less to be eliminated by the Champions 

[Merit.s]

I did enjoy
Int-bar today
What a match….

The final can't beat this.....
A Real Madrid fan but have to give it to Barcelona
They are still world class despite the loss.

Two finals in three years speaks better of Inter 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

buddy wakes up 🆙

[Biodom]

Inter fans buying bitcoin to celebrate?
 

[philipma1957]

Inter fans buying bitcoin to celebrate?
 

Would love to see it go to 105k this week

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Leahized]

Inter fans buying bitcoin to celebrate?
 

Would love to see it go to 105k this week

Yeah, However I would like to see 100k in 72 hours.

BTC is touching on 97k

[xhomerx10]

https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/new-hampshire-law-creates-first-state-strategic-bitcoin-reserve

“live free or die”

  I'm all for the NH BSR but "Live free or die" my buttocks!  Have you ever seen the property taxes there?  Sheesh!

bro the plates are made by jailed prisoners.


but let me fact check that.

bingo found it

https://www.neatorama.com/2008/04/09/oh-the-irony-new-hampshires-live-free-or-die-license-plates-made-by-prisoners/

 Now that's ironic.  Clearly the state has become just a tad disconnected from its motto.  Maybe it's time to modernize it - "Well... at least we're seatbelt free!"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com