Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[pinhead666]

Bitcoin hits 97,000k$+

Inter fans buying bitcoin to celebrate?
 

Wow..

right now btc price 97,404$. As soon as possible btc price hits 100k+

[cAPSLOCK]

https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/new-hampshire-law-creates-first-state-strategic-bitcoin-reserve

“live free or die”

I mean... Bitcoin is STILL a binary bet... which is rare.

So live free, or die indeed.

[JayJuanGee]

first off thanks for contest.
30 days 111,111.11
60 days 123,456.78
90 days 144,444.44

Whoaza, Philip!!!!!!

You are no longer proclaiming that the ATH of $109,356 won't be breached prior to October?

You are expecting $111,111.11 by early to mid-June-ish?  exact date depending on when the new pope is selected

The liquidity charts vs bitcoin are good for hopium, but so far bitcoin did absolutely nothing in 2025.
"Everybody" seem to be buying, but the price is not moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: a gigantic buying, vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.

It probably changes after the interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.
That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.

cycles are done.  we are in the age of pope to be trump.

quoting this to preserve this opinion 

Protip:  Philip should not be taken seriously.

He says all kinds of seemingly random crazy shit to see if any of it might end up coming true.. It is like Philip has a dartboard in his "thinking shed" with pieces of paper containing the full gammut of possibilities of things that he could say ranging from normal to crazy-ass shit that he could say, and then he throws the dart to see which crazy-ass thing ends up getting select for him to say at any particular moment.

Sorry (not sorry) to give away your secret, Philip.   

[edited out]

I got more where that came from.

I know.

You can ONLY fit so many pieces of paper on a dart board, so you have some crazy-ass pieces of shit that are waiting to be added to your dartboard.  What a great imagination you have in your elder years!!!!   

[cAPSLOCK]

https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/new-hampshire-law-creates-first-state-strategic-bitcoin-reserve

Gents,
If you are reading this, you probably frontran a nation State.
It is something you can write on your tombstone.


Here lies fillippone.
He frontran Blackrock an many Nation States”.
Fucking legend.

“Here lies fillippone, beloved human being.
Died at 104 years, taking care of his 22 years old wife.
He frontran Blackrock an many Nation States”.
Fucking legend.

Wait no...  I dont want fillippone to die!

Oh wait I read the fine print.. ok yeah, I suppose we gotta all go sometime.  I'll race ya!

And of COURSE we front ran nation states!!!  Of course we did!  Stupid nation states.


On this topic I have thoughts...  So. OBVIOUSLY.  As in OBVIOUSLY... we are seeing large purchases by various entities.  

But empty blocks.

So,  I have been saying for a while (possibly starting a little early) that these sorts of purchases are not happening on exchange in the open.  But rather lots of Bitcoin being sold by OTC desks and then bundled into single (but LARGE) transactions.  Things like this:



Say you are a 50 year old cypherpunk In 2010.    Or maybe the family member of one who already passed.  And you hold THOUSANDS of Bitcoin.  The game is quite different for you than it might be for the average "pleb".  You can sell  4295 bitcoin today and finance quite the luxurious life.  In fact for more than just you.  And perhaps you have that many behind as well... knowing that in time that other half will be worth orders of magnitude more than what you just sold.

So your progeny can live as kings... and you can reap a kingly fortune for the life you have left.  (long live the king... really)

But here's the thing.  And I am likely early here as well...

Eventually these kings will run out of ammo.

I am not the brightest bulb in the WO.  In fact... far from it.  Do I need to spell out what happens after the kings have settled the first round?

I imagine not... but let me know because I am willing to keep blathering to a receptive audience.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

<snip>And of COURSE we front ran nation states!!!  Of course we did!  Stupid nation states.


On this topic I have thoughts...  So. OBVIOUSLY.  As in OBVIOUSLY... we are seeing large purchases by various entities.  

But empty blocks.

So,  I have been saying for a while (possibly starting a little early) that these sorts of purchases are not happening on exchange in the open.  But rather lots of Bitcoin being sold by OTC desks and then bundled into single (but LARGE) transactions.  Things like this:



Say you are a 50 year old cypherpunk In 2010.    Or maybe the family member of one who already passed.  And you hold THOUSANDS of Bitcoin.  The game is quite different for you than it might be for the average "pleb".  You can sell  4295 bitcoin today and finance quite the luxurious life.  In fact for more than just you.  And perhaps you have that many behind as well... knowing that in time that other half will be worth orders of magnitude more than what you just sold.

So your progeny can live as kings... and you can reap a kingly fortune for the life you have left.  (long live the king... really)

But here's the thing.  And I am likely early here as well...

Eventually these kings will run out of ammo.

I am not the brightest bulb in the WO.  In fact... far from it.  Do I need to spell out what happens after the kings have settled the first round?

I imagine not... but let me know because I am willing to keep blathering to a receptive audience.

Well, the entity is transferring FROM Coinbase, not to it, so most likely a whale withdrawing to another account/wallet and not selling.
The rest..sure, some OGs are "stupidly" selling, perhaps.
I guess the number being close to six digists is like an aphrodisiac for a sell by them, assuming a buy (for less that $1) or mine in 2010.
It must be hard to hodl when you are up almost 100000X (made a mil on each $10 invested, lol) and overall situation is, perhaps, sub-optimal (or at least this is the prevalent "vibe").
That Fidelity guy (Peter Lynch) was always suggesting to take profits at 10x..so they are "overdue".

[philipma1957]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/india-fires-three-missiles-across-203325715.html

two nuclear powers launching missiles at one another.

What could go wrong?


late nite F.u.d.

[OgNasty]

Would love to see it go to 105k this week

I’ll remain cautious until we hit $110K. That’s when I’ll switch to starting to feel euphoria again. At $120K I will probably enter a period of disbelief. If we go as high as $200K this year I may shed actual tears. Anything above that and I would probably be paralyzed by what I was witnessing.

I end by saying we rise 69% over the next 69 days.

[JayJuanGee]

<snip>And of COURSE we front ran nation states!!!  Of course we did!  Stupid nation states.
On this topic I have thoughts...  So. OBVIOUSLY.  As in OBVIOUSLY... we are seeing large purchases by various entities.  

But empty blocks.
So,  I have been saying for a while (possibly starting a little early) that these sorts of purchases are not happening on exchange in the open.  But rather lots of Bitcoin being sold by OTC desks and then bundled into single (but LARGE) transactions.  Things like this:

Say you are a 50 year old cypherpunk In 2010.    Or maybe the family member of one who already passed.  And you hold THOUSANDS of Bitcoin.  The game is quite different for you than it might be for the average "pleb".  You can sell  4295 bitcoin today and finance quite the luxurious life.  In fact for more than just you.  And perhaps you have that many behind as well... knowing that in time that other half will be worth orders of magnitude more than what you just sold.

So your progeny can live as kings... and you can reap a kingly fortune for the life you have left.  (long live the king... really)
But here's the thing.  And I am likely early here as well...

Eventually these kings will run out of ammo.
I am not the brightest bulb in the WO.  In fact... far from it.  Do I need to spell out what happens after the kings have settled the first round?

I imagine not... but let me know because I am willing to keep blathering to a receptive audience.

Well, the entity is transferring FROM Coinbase, not to it, so most likely a whale withdrawing to another account/wallet and not selling.
The rest..sure, some OGs are "stupidly" selling, perhaps.
I guess the number being close to six digists is like an aphrodisiac for a sell by them, assuming a buy (for less that $1) or mine in 2010.
It must be hard to hodl when you are up almost 100000X (made a mil on each $10 invested, lol) and overall situation is, perhaps, sub-optimal (or at least this is the prevalent "vibe").
That Fidelity guy (Peter Lynch) was always suggesting to take profits at 10x..so they are "overdue".

It can be difficult to imagine having 4,000 or more coins, and surely a guy can sell fractions of his stash at various points in time based on a bird in hand is better than two in the bush, and it may not matter very much if most of it is profits.  I have layed out quite a few scenarios where guys can be selling decently large chunks of his stash at various points in time and not really ever run out.. surely one or them is 10% for every doubling, but even selling 25% for every doubling is not necessarily going to meaningfully deplete stashes that might be several thousand coins.

Sure, the overall wealth is shrinking in terms of bitcoin, yet even the guy who sells 25% every time it doubles, the value of his BTC stash is still growing at least equal to the amount being sold... surely we still get a better compounding effect if the amount sold is less than 10% for every doubling, and yeah, some folks are not interested in building generational wealth.

Would love to see it go to 105k this week

I’ll remain cautious until we hit $110K. That’s when I’ll switch to starting to feel euphoria again. At $120K I will probably enter a period of disbelief. If we go as high as $200K this year I may shed actual tears. Anything above that and I would probably be paralyzed by what I was witnessing.

I end by saying we rise 69% over the next 69 days.

Going paralyzed is not a good reaction.  I recommend against it.

[xhomerx10]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/india-fires-three-missiles-across-203325715.html

two nuclear powers launching missiles at one another.

What could go wrong?


late nite F.u.d.

 Well, just in case our world goes pear-shaped overnight, I just want to say, I love you guys!  Thanks for the support, encouragement and entertainment during the greatest rollercoaster ride I could never have dreamed of.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DaNNy001]

Would love to see it go to 105k this week

I’ll remain cautious until we hit $110K. That’s when I’ll switch to starting to feel euphoria again. At $120K I will probably enter a period of disbelief. If we go as high as $200K this year I may shed actual tears. Anything above that and I would probably be paralyzed by what I was witnessing.

I end by saying we rise 69% over the next 69 days.

But all will happen just a matter of time, ofcourse only the patient ones will see this come to actualization and still be beneficiaries to the testament if you know what you are doing @HODL_on_strong

[philipma1957]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/india-fires-three-missiles-across-203325715.html

two nuclear powers launching missiles at one another.

What could go wrong?


late nite F.u.d.

 Well, just in case our world goes pear-shaped overnight, I just want to say, I love you guys!  Thanks for the support, encouragement and entertainment during the greatest rollercoaster ride I could never have dreamed of.

Yeah btc has been a lot of fun.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Well, the entity is transferring FROM Coinbase, not to it, so most likely a whale withdrawing to another account/wallet and not selling.
The rest..sure, some OGs are "stupidly" selling, perhaps.
I guess the number being close to six digists is like an aphrodisiac for a sell by them, assuming a buy (for less that $1) or mine in 2010.
It must be hard to hodl when you are up almost 100000X (made a mil on each $10 invested, lol) and overall situation is, perhaps, sub-optimal (or at least this is the prevalent "vibe").
That Fidelity guy (Peter Lynch) was always suggesting to take profits at 10x..so they are "overdue".

Good point(s). And I prob picked a bad example of a "whale move". But at the same time I am assuming there's still a fair chance these moves are related to lots or even combinations of lots sold over the counter.

Could also be CB just rotating things or upgrading coins already in storage to a new address for some internal reason.

Speaking of which I hope the security folks there really really know what they are doing.

Also. The combination of various layer 2 systems (including plain old custodial systems) as well as less interest in monkey jpegs for a moment have cleared mempools for sure. Transactions are being batched I expect as well.

I know Philip has expressed concern that things like lightning will kill mining.

I do not think we will see clear mempools for long.

The race is on.  We WILL see more large moves happening as settlement for various things though seeing as there seems to be quite the uptick in big players filling in.

Such intersting times.

Hopefully India and Pakistan can chill out. 😜