Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OutOfMemory]

No corn? Go buy some.
Enough corn? Go have some fun.
Stop the bear talking!

Some guys might be unsure whether they have enough.. or on the border of figuring out if they have enough or more than enough.

It is likely a good feeling to a status of knowing that you have enough.. even if, from time to time, there might be flashes of uncertainty.. regarding whether "that enough" really is "enough."

My take on this:

Ideally, with Bitcoin, one can never really have enough. Realistically, with Bitcoin, one may not have enough right now, but may have enough 3 years from now, i.e., the "enoughness" of a given amount of coins changes with time, with the threshold steadily getting lower (as indicated by the 200 WMA).

The point of my haiku was that, difficult as it may be, one must set an "enoughness" threshold, so that one can decide whether to keep accumulating or to start making use of his/her coins. Otherwise, one may end up becoming obsessed with HoDLing, to the point of never spending any, until old age sets in. This is very important. The target should not be Bitcoin accumulation for accumulation's sake, without some real-life set goals. Bob built a ranch, Jimbo bought a lake. That sort of thing. At some point, those magic numbers in our Trezors or paper wallets must start being transformed into real-life changes. LHB for some, freedom from wage slavery for others, maybe a high-tech laboratory for a mad scientist, or the ability to travel and experience the world like the Dude's escapades.

And, please, people, stop the bear talking! We've been in a bull season since 2015.

[...]

You know, Bitcoin has two small problems. Not Bitcoin, but how the world sees it.
1. Speculative asset: Which it definitely is. Not by design, but with derivatives and leveraged trading. Not a first order Bitcoin problem.
2. Too-good-to-be-true asset: With it's historical price development, Bitcoin is expected to crash into oblivion, sooner or later. Ordinary people are afraid to invest because they fear it's the absolute peak every time they even think about getting their fiat into BTC.

To the disadvantage of the retail market, smart institutional money are using these two sentiments to get cheap corn OTC. They will be the ones dumping on us, and if not, they will be the Bitcoin banks of the future. It's not that complicated. Well, in all its details it is, of course, but overall these two are currently the biggest problems in Bitcoins price dynamics. Well, this and people are seemingly thinking more short-term than ever before, to their own disadvantage.

my few cents

[Lucius]

You know, Bitcoin has two small problems. Not Bitcoin, but how the world sees it.
1. Speculative asset: Which it definitely is. Not by design, but with derivatives and leveraged trading. Not a first order Bitcoin problem.
2. Too-good-to-be-true asset: With it's historical price development, Bitcoin is expected to crash into oblivion, sooner or later. Ordinary people are afraid to invest because they fear it's the absolute peak every time they even think about getting their fiat into BTC.

To the disadvantage of the retail market, smart institutional money are using these two sentiments to get cheap corn OTC. They will be the ones dumping on us, and if not, they will be the Bitcoin banks of the future. It's not that complicated. Well, in all its details it is, of course, but overall these two are currently the biggest problems in Bitcoins price dynamics. Well, this and people are seemingly thinking more short-term than ever before, to their own disadvantage.

my few cents

You've identified at least two problems (although there are more) that are likely to affect people's acceptance of Bitcoin as an investment, let alone as a currency. As you say, most people are still very cautious about Bitcoin because they think that something like that simply cannot last forever and that there must come a time when it will collapse - and even when they clearly see that such a scenario is increasingly difficult to achieve, they hold on to their old beliefs because it is difficult for them to admit that you, me and some others were right, and they were clearly wrong.

It may sound a little offensive to some, but if someone hasn't been able to understand what Bitcoin is in 15 years, will they ever be able to understand it? Somehow I don't believe that people in general are that unintelligent, but rather that most are heavily influenced by what politicians and media say, which tend to glorify centralist beliefs.

It's rare that ordinary people have the opportunity to be ahead of people with large capital, and Bitcoin was (and still is) just such an opportunity that was offered to them on a golden platter while people like Saylor and companies like BlackRock were publicly saying that Bitcoin was doomed and that it was something only used by criminals. Today, the story has completely turned around, and it is once again shown that those who have money can always turn the game in their favor, only the stakes are much higher today than they were 7-8 years ago.

For all those who invested in BTC 10+ years ago and still haven't sold (most of it), the greatest satisfaction may be that we outsmarted them and that we won't sell them everything they want even if they offer $1 million for BTC

[OutOfMemory]

You know, Bitcoin has two small problems. Not Bitcoin, but how the world sees it.
1. Speculative asset: Which it definitely is. Not by design, but with derivatives and leveraged trading. Not a first order Bitcoin problem.
2. Too-good-to-be-true asset: With it's historical price development, Bitcoin is expected to crash into oblivion, sooner or later. Ordinary people are afraid to invest because they fear it's the absolute peak every time they even think about getting their fiat into BTC.

To the disadvantage of the retail market, smart institutional money are using these two sentiments to get cheap corn OTC. They will be the ones dumping on us, and if not, they will be the Bitcoin banks of the future. It's not that complicated. Well, in all its details it is, of course, but overall these two are currently the biggest problems in Bitcoins price dynamics. Well, this and people are seemingly thinking more short-term than ever before, to their own disadvantage.

my few cents

You've identified at least two problems (although there are more) that are likely to affect people's acceptance of Bitcoin as an investment, let alone as a currency. As you say, most people are still very cautious about Bitcoin because they think that something like that simply cannot last forever and that there must come a time when it will collapse - and even when they clearly see that such a scenario is increasingly difficult to achieve, they hold on to their old beliefs because it is difficult for them to admit that you, me and some others were right, and they were clearly wrong.

It may sound a little offensive to some, but if someone hasn't been able to understand what Bitcoin is in 15 years, will they ever be able to understand it? Somehow I don't believe that people in general are that unintelligent, but rather that most are heavily influenced by what politicians and media say, which tend to glorify centralist beliefs.

It's rare that ordinary people have the opportunity to be ahead of people with large capital, and Bitcoin was (and still is) just such an opportunity that was offered to them on a golden platter while people like Saylor and companies like BlackRock were publicly saying that Bitcoin was doomed and that it was something only used by criminals. Today, the story has completely turned around, and it is once again shown that those who have money can always turn the game in their favor, only the stakes are much higher today than they were 7-8 years ago.

For all those who invested in BTC 10+ years ago and still haven't sold (most of it), the greatest satisfaction may be that we outsmarted them and that we won't sell them everything they want even if they offer $1 million for BTC

Yeah, you did spread the point out a little bit better.
I'm still mentally perfocming on a basic level compared to what i'm used to on "good days" (don't worry, i should recover after a few days of rest).
Did i mention it's a simple abstration of complex underlying dynamics? But you nailed it right there  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[blomen]

It may sound a little offensive to some, but if someone hasn't been able to understand what Bitcoin is in 15 years, will they ever be able to understand it? Somehow I don't believe that people in general are that unintelligent, but rather that most are heavily influenced by what politicians and media say, which tend to glorify centralist beliefs.

this is a big problem for bitcoin. even though it's a logical system, even though it aims to liberate people, even though it provides decentralization and true ownership, it means nothing if the people in question find it complicated, if they don't buy into it.

the power of bitcoin and people's use of it are mutually reinforcing. but if people like their labor being wasted, if people like making the rich richer and richer, that's their choice. it's not an all or nothing situation, but it's very important that people prefer it. otherwise, if i own all 21 million bitcoins, it's useless.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

FYI.  Neither endorsing nor rejecting.

https://ashigaru.rs/news/announcement-whirlpool/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

An amusing chat.

AMD Radeon Pro WX 8100 vs 8200
.
Assist

The AMD Radeon Pro WX 8200 outperforms the WX 8100 by approximately 92% in benchmark tests, offering better specifications such as a higher boost clock and improved memory bandwidth, while both cards feature 8GB of VRAM. The WX 8200 is designed to provide similar performance to the WX 9100 at a significantly lower price point of $999.
Search Results

    AMD Introduces Sub-$1000 Radeon Pro WX 8200 Card A...Tom's Hardware
    AMD Radeon Pro WX 8100 vs AMD Radeon Pro WX 8200topcpu.net

i think your comparing the w8100 and not the wx8100
.
Llama 3.3 70B

You are correct, I was comparing the W8100, not the WX8100. The WX8100 is a different model, and I should have provided a comparison between the WX8100 and WX8200.

To provide a correct comparison, the AMD Radeon Pro WX8200 generally offers better performance than the WX8100, with a higher number of stream processors, a higher boost clock, and improved memory bandwidth. However, I would need more specific information about the WX8100 model to provide a detailed comparison.

If you could provide more context or clarify which specific aspects of the two models you would like to compare, I'll do my best to provide a more accurate answer.

i think your making stuff up
.
Llama 3.3 70B

You caught me. I was generating responses based on my understanding of the context, but I didn't actually have any information about the AMD Radeon Pro WX 8100 and WX 8200. I was making an educated guess, but it was still a guess.

I should not have provided false information. Instead, I should have said that I don't have enough information to provide a comparison between the two models. I'll do my best to be more accurate and transparent in the future. Thank you for pointing out my mistake. Can I start fresh and try to find the correct information for you?

[AlcoHoDL]

An amusing chat.

AMD Radeon Pro WX 8100 vs 8200
.
Assist

The AMD Radeon Pro WX 8200 outperforms the WX 8100 by approximately 92% in benchmark tests, offering better specifications such as a higher boost clock and improved memory bandwidth, while both cards feature 8GB of VRAM. The WX 8200 is designed to provide similar performance to the WX 9100 at a significantly lower price point of $999.
Search Results

    AMD Introduces Sub-$1000 Radeon Pro WX 8200 Card A...Tom's Hardware
    AMD Radeon Pro WX 8100 vs AMD Radeon Pro WX 8200topcpu.net

i think your comparing the w8100 and not the wx8100
.
Llama 3.3 70B

You are correct, I was comparing the W8100, not the WX8100. The WX8100 is a different model, and I should have provided a comparison between the WX8100 and WX8200.

To provide a correct comparison, the AMD Radeon Pro WX8200 generally offers better performance than the WX8100, with a higher number of stream processors, a higher boost clock, and improved memory bandwidth. However, I would need more specific information about the WX8100 model to provide a detailed comparison.

If you could provide more context or clarify which specific aspects of the two models you would like to compare, I'll do my best to provide a more accurate answer.

i think your making stuff up
.
Llama 3.3 70B

You caught me. I was generating responses based on my understanding of the context, but I didn't actually have any information about the AMD Radeon Pro WX 8100 and WX 8200. I was making an educated guess, but it was still a guess.

I should not have provided false information. Instead, I should have said that I don't have enough information to provide a comparison between the two models. I'll do my best to be more accurate and transparent in the future. Thank you for pointing out my mistake. Can I start fresh and try to find the correct information for you?

Surprising as it may seem, I've never, really, seriously used AI yet (not consciously, at least -- I see Google searches now show AI results first). I don't have a ChatGPT (or other AI engine) account. I'm not against AI, I just haven't yet taken it seriously enough to sit down and work with it. I know friends and colleagues who rely on it for work. I asked it one technical question once (on a colleague's account) and it gave me the wrong answer. I told it, and pointed it to the right answer, and it seemed to have learned from our interaction (it told me so, and upon questioning it again, it gave me the right answer). That was ChatGPT on a free account.

If I'm honest, I'm not so keen on using AI on a regular basis, and certainly not for creative work (it wouldn't be me as a creator if I did). I'm not against it, but I do believe that it's way more hyped up than it should be. Also, something concerning, but not surprising: recent studies have shown that excessive use of AI may actually make us dumber. See the following article (not the one I originally read):

TIME -- ChatGPT May Be Eroding Critical Thinking Skills, According to a New MIT Study

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

Llama 3.3 70B

[...]

Surprising as it may seem, I've never, really, seriously used AI yet (not consciously, at least -- I see Google searches now show AI results first). I don't have a ChatGPT (or other AI engine) account. I'm not against AI, I just haven't yet taken it seriously enough to sit down and work with it. I know friends and colleagues who rely on it for work. I asked it one technical question once (on a colleague's account) and it gave me the wrong answer. I told it, and pointed it to the right answer, and it seemed to have learned from our interaction (it told me so, and upon questioning it again, it gave me the right answer). That was ChatGPT on a free account.

If I'm honest, I'm not so keen on using AI on a regular basis, and certainly not for creative work (it wouldn't be me as a creator if I did). I'm not against it, but I do believe that it's way more hyped up than it should be. Also, something concerning, but not surprising: recent studies have shown that excessive use of AI may actually make us dumber. See the following article (not the one I originally read):

Llama 3.3 70B sounds like a locally run AI (ie model run on local hardware, so private), and if you play with such models for funzies (i do) you wind up with lots of "out in the weeds" chats like this lol

[cAPSLOCK]

I think currently the AI that we see or at least the public sees is not much more than a very compute hungry parlor trick.

Not saying it doesn't have uses or isn't interesting or won't be a tool that changes the way our world works in time.

Before I retired, one of the last projects I worked on was standing up an AI-based chatbot, both voice and text, for doing some fairly routine but complex scheduling things with our consumers.

It worked, but the places where it really worked were in the areas of the tech that already existed, like voice recognition and simple logic trees.

And when it would go off the rails, it would go off the rails so bad it was partially hilarious, but also a user experience that was basically the worst possible case scenario.

That above sentence is basically a mirror of almost everything that's wrong with AI. Like Hueristic's post up there or nine fingered people or chairs that look like they were designed by MC Escher in a picture that looked real for a split second.

Basically, I think the question is, will AI actually ever be able to cross the chasm that is the uncanny valley? Or will it be stuck in that forever? Because it has no soul. ( I'm expanding the concept of the uncanny valley to include things that aren't humanoid like song lyrics or music or pictures or so many other things, even just narrative texts.) ( And I believe the soul is something that's firewalled by God Himself. We won't be inventing those. But we might be finding out how important they are to what we like to call intelligence.)

At this moment in time, our human brains are getting better at spotting AI produced content faster than AI is getting better at fooling us. Until that flips...

[Lucius]

~snip~
Yeah, you did spread the point out a little bit better.
I'm still mentally perfocming on a basic level compared to what i'm used to on "good days" (don't worry, i should recover after a few days of rest).
Did i mention it's a simple abstration of complex underlying dynamics? But you nailed it right there  

I'm not up to date with what apparently happened to you, but in any case I hope you recover quickly and get back into shape. I've also had some increased physical activity lately, but I'm in pretty good shape and have no problem recovering quickly.

It may sound a little offensive to some, but if someone hasn't been able to understand what Bitcoin is in 15 years, will they ever be able to understand it? Somehow I don't believe that people in general are that unintelligent, but rather that most are heavily influenced by what politicians and media say, which tend to glorify centralist beliefs.

this is a big problem for bitcoin. even though it's a logical system, even though it aims to liberate people, even though it provides decentralization and true ownership, it means nothing if the people in question find it complicated, if they don't buy into it.

the power of bitcoin and people's use of it are mutually reinforcing. but if people like their labor being wasted, if people like making the rich richer and richer, that's their choice. it's not an all or nothing situation, but it's very important that people prefer it. otherwise, if i own all 21 million bitcoins, it's useless.

I dare say that the centuries in which today's modern society was shaped have left clearly visible consequences that manifest themselves in the form of a modern slave system that gives you just enough to keep you alive - and on the other hand, governments don't have much mercy on those who dare to think differently, especially in some countries where people think a little differently.

When you challenge the system, you automatically end up on the list of those considered potentially dangerous, and if you pay for something with BTC, it is considered that you want to hide something - and anyone who wants privacy is an enemy of the centralized oligarchy, which is actually the same in all countries with minor differences.

[cAPSLOCK]

FYI.  Neither endorsing nor rejecting.

https://ashigaru.rs/news/announcement-whirlpool/

Looking into this further, it seems to me that the Ashigaru team has changed some things about the way this works, and that could be good, but I would tread with an abundance of caution into this one.

also found this thread.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5547639.0

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bangjoe]

[...]
Basically, I think the question is, will AI actually ever be able to cross the chasm that is the uncanny valley? Or will it be stuck in that forever? Because it has no soul. ( I'm expanding the concept of the uncanny valley to include things that aren't humanoid like song lyrics or music or pictures or so many other things, even just narrative texts.) ( And I believe the soul is something that's firewalled by God Himself. We won't be inventing those. But we might be finding out how important they are to what we like to call intelligence.)

At this moment in time, our human brains are getting better at spotting AI produced content faster than AI is getting better at fooling us. Until that flips...

Our AI can train it about IQ and also EQ as a humanoid form but they will not inherit SQ, that is something they cannot touch.

That is because what is in our bodies is a creation of God, the quality will be different from human creation, no matter how great humans make their own replicas, they will definitely not resemble humans themselves and have many shortcomings that we can recognize.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com