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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26838953 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
kanftka
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July 15, 2025, 08:58:36 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Foundation Season 3 Episode 1 Was fantastic!

I have no doubt it will suck by the end of the season but this episode was a must watch even if you don't follow the series.

It stands on its own.

Thanks for the heads up man, definitely watching it tonight. I have been following the series, curious to see how the Second Foundation starts making their moves…
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July 15, 2025, 09:03:29 PM

Only if you're an ant...  Wink

Yes, I am an ant to buy.
Bluedrem is an ant now, so his BTC is growing.
Would have understand better if only you were Orangedrem

But yeah, you're way far from an orange man.

Maybe blue fits you better  Roll Eyes
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July 15, 2025, 09:28:18 PM

Foundation Season 3 Episode 1 Was fantastic!

I have no doubt it will suck by the end of the season but this episode was a must watch even if you don't follow the series.

It stands on its own.
How do you see the mule?  In episode 1 after taking over Kalgan I think he is going be a big threat to Hari seldons whole plan...His powers of manipulation make him nearly impossible to predict, which completely breaks the psychohistory model. If the show does him right, he is going to flip everything upside down
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July 15, 2025, 09:35:17 PM
Last edit: July 15, 2025, 10:06:21 PM by Biodom
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Another SPAC bitcoin treasury company led by Cantor Fitzgerald.
This time it is interesting as it is Adam Back who is contributing 30000 btc (about $3.6 bil) to it.
It will be called BSTR Holdings.

https://www.ft.com/content/a4a362a6-cc8b-4188-8658-75183a3d6f5f

Maybe this explains some of the large moves of 2011 coins (bought for less than $1/btc).

https://cointelegraph.com/news/satoshi-era-whale-4-6b-transfer-14-year-hodl

EDIT: Now it is clear that he took quick steps following this opinion:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-treasury-adoption-alt-season-adam-back

Think about it: treasury companies typically have a premium anywhere from 1.8X (MSTR) to 6X (Metaplanet).
Even if it would be a minimal 1.5X, AB immediately 1.5X his $3.6bil in value and because the bitcoin treasury company price is correlated with btc price it would be even more beneficial for him to hold that vehicle (BSTR Holdings) instead of "just" btc. If the premium ever goes to 5X, he might dispose 20% back to "pure" bitcoin and voila! Depending on jurisdiction (he is not American), he might not even need to pay taxes.

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July 15, 2025, 09:51:06 PM

Foundation Season 3 Episode 1 Was fantastic!

I have no doubt it will suck by the end of the season but this episode was a must watch even if you don't follow the series.

It stands on its own.
How do you see the mule?  In episode 1 after taking over Kalgan I think he is going be a big threat to Hari seldons whole plan...His powers of manipulation make him nearly impossible to predict, which completely breaks the psychohistory model. If the show does him right, he is going to flip everything upside down


Luckily I could never get through the book when I was younger so I don't know the story but He reminds me of the character in Dune that the spice or some such thing gave those mind powers to. I don't remember anything about last season and lost complete interest in it so i'll probably watch one of those youtube videos that recap the season so I can catch back up on the story line. I cant even remember what Harry's goal was on a global scale but he gives a interesting bit of info in this episode that I don't want to ruin. Is he a mind saved in a computer matrix or something, I cant really remember but I do remember the Empires make clones of themselfs so I'm assuming that's what he does?
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July 15, 2025, 09:52:37 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

okay so all those little fuck around ladder up sales on kraken mean I can buy some dip.

 sweet!


and since I still have a large carry over loss no tax consequence

edit

dip added


 Speaking of dip, I hear you might be getting some flooding.  Seek high ground and stay safe, Mr. philipma1957!


Missed it. Rained like mad and flooding here and there. But not real close.

A week or so ago a tornado was about 4 miles away.

Not as bad as the one 2 years ago that one was under a mile away. But since it was over woods you see a debris cloud that hides the funnel.
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July 15, 2025, 09:59:22 PM

okay so all those little fuck around ladder up sales on kraken mean I can buy some dip.

 sweet!


and since I still have a large carry over loss no tax consequence

edit

dip added


 Speaking of dip, I hear you might be getting some flooding.  Seek high ground and stay safe, Mr. philipma1957!


Missed it. Rained like mad and flooding here and there. But not real close.

A week or so ago a tornado was about 4 miles away.

Not as bad as the one 2 years ago that one was under a mile away. But since it was over woods you see a debris cloud that hides the funnel.

Nowhere above ground is safe anymore.
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July 15, 2025, 10:01:16 PM


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yixichloro2xx
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July 15, 2025, 10:16:12 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Foundation Season 3 Episode 1 Was fantastic!

I have no doubt it will suck by the end of the season but this episode was a must watch even if you don't follow the series.

It stands on its own.
How do you see the mule?  In episode 1 after taking over Kalgan I think he is going be a big threat to Hari seldons whole plan...His powers of manipulation make him nearly impossible to predict, which completely breaks the psychohistory model. If the show does him right, he is going to flip everything upside down


Luckily I could never get through the book when I was younger so I don't know the story but He reminds me of the character in Dune that the spice or some such thing gave those mind powers to. I don't remember anything about last season and lost complete interest in it so i'll probably watch one of those youtube videos that recap the season so I can catch back up on the story line. I cant even remember what Harry's goal was on a global scale but he gives a interesting bit of info in this episode that I don't want to ruin. Is he a mind saved in a computer matrix or something, I cant really remember but I do remember the Empires make clones of themselfs so I'm assuming that's what he does?
Hari Seldon is  a kind of a digital ghost like a preserved mind in a system (like a computer matrix). He died early in the story but left behind an AI version of himself to guide the foundation, which he created to help shorten the collapse of the galactic empire and the dark age that follows.

‎So basically,the foundation was meant to preserve knowledge and rebuild civilization faster, but over time, it is  growing in ways Hari didn’t fully plan  like mixing in religion and politics.... While the empire is ruled by cloned emperors which are the Cleon1 copies  in three forms,dawn (young), day (middle), and dusk (old). They are  supposed to be identical, but now they are starting to change emotionally and act unpredictably.

‎Now there is also a rising threat called the Mule  a powerful figure who could completely break Haris psychohistory predictions.

‎So yeah it is empires falling, clones glitching, a digital ghost trying to guide humanity, and a mysterious supervillain looming in the background. Season 3 is setting all of that up for chaos.....
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July 15, 2025, 11:01:13 PM


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kanftka
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July 15, 2025, 11:29:49 PM

TRUMP POSTED THIS, HAPPY CRYPTO WEEK

BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE IN NEXT COMING MONTHS.

But before then, who is ready for a NEW ATH ??

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July 16, 2025, 12:01:16 AM


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July 16, 2025, 12:14:57 AM
Merited by Lucius (1)

In a few months, we'll feel sad Bitcoin is down to $75k again.
Now $119k feels sad. We're getting somewhere Cheesy
I'm convinced this place is a nest of masochists.
Yeah but..

after a while up and down does not hurt very much anymore..

I mean any mostly long time bitcoiners who had largely been long in their cornz position and even half asleep (vapourminer?) has made a killing since late October 2024.. .. and even more of a killing if we go back to November 2022.. . .and even more of killing if we go back to mid 2020.. .. .etc etc.. and even if you think about it, 5 years is not really a long time for an investment, and it is quite great when the investment ends up going up 20x or so in value in a matter of 5-ish years... that is not a long time.
you make a very good point , after going through the ups and downs for a while, it really does start to feel normal  especially when you are in it with a longterm mindset.....Those who have  held through the quiet times and stayed patient are now seeing the rewards, and it is  encouraging for people like me who are still early in the journey..... Five years may seem long at first, but looking back, it is  really not especially with the kind of growth Bitcoin has shown...

You can theorize about the process, yet it seems to me that getting through a whole cycle of bitcoin accumulation will likely help you to have a bit of a track record, and even help you to figure out how well you might have been able to follow your original plan or if you might have had tweaked your plans at various points along the way.

In the last few years I have come to understand that anyone who is persistently accumulating bitcoin at a similar rate for 4 years is likely going to have average BTC prices that are right around the 200-WMA, and surely if your accumulation period is even longer then your average cost per BTC will be further and further below the 200-WMA.. which historically has tended to be a good place to be, especially if you can get your average cost per BTC to be more than 35% below the 200-WMA while still building a decently large BTC stash in the process.

Don't get me wrong, since I am not advocating that it is better to have a low cost of BTC rather than accumulating a decently large bitcoin stash, and as an investment, it can take a bit of time to have both the low cost per BTC and a decently large BTC stash.

hey JJG
woke up from nap, did i miss anything?

I think what has been happening has been exciting, even though in terms of percentage, we are still not experiencing any meaningful face rippings.. but maybe, just maybe what happened could be a sign for where we might be going in the coming 3-6 months.

I hate to get overly confident, even though I have been continuing to have difficulties understanding how so much buying from known actors has not been translating into even more UPpity than what we have been seeing... and surely some UPpity and then some correction back down would not be unreasonable, even though I hate to count upon such things (either psychologically or financially).... so in some sense, I will cope either way..

[edited out]
1. Thanks for updating me at the news front, i don't track US politics that much, even less so since i am working on two projects at office at the time.

2. Yes, indeed, over a whole cycle, in non-top years July/August/September are quite negative (red) in non-top years, which masks their greenishness in cycle-top years.
That said, i ain't sure about September being green overall in those top-years.
I just hit "All" on the timeframe and "monthly" on the chart and inspected the results myself, to my own surprise, wrongly memorizing Summer months as generally bearish.

 I don't tend to get very excited in connection with seasonality proclamations.

Only if you're an ant...  Wink
Yes, I am an ant to buy.
Bluedrem is an ant now, so his BTC is growing.

You are welcome to be an ant too 😊

Cheers!

It seems that we all have to start as ants.. even though surely there are some of us who had investments in other assets become coming to bitcoin which truly helped us to accomplish some frontloading of our investment.  For bitcoin, I like the idea of frontloading, yet surely we have to figure out how to make sure that we are staying within our own means rather than overdoing it.

That was a shocking amount of BTC being dumped at $117,500.  The market seemed to absorb it and is holding up ok, someone sold a massive amount though for sure.  That's the largest volume spike we've seen in months, so that leads me to believe we might be near a new bottom here.  With this week being sure to be full of announcements, I think it might be a bit early to count this rally down for now.  It does seem to be taking a breather though.  We'll see how Europe responds when they wake up in a few hours.

Because turns out the guy who forgot 8 wallets from 2011, 10K BTC in each, just cashed out over $2 billion  Wink
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/05/eight-bitcoin-wallets-move-80000-btc-in-largest-ever-satoshi-era-transfers
https://www.theblock.co/post/361057/two-bitcoin-wallets-move-20000-btc-after-14-years


Did he actually cash out the full $2 billion or some portion of it?  I cannot imagine wanting to put $2 billion in cash, but I could imaging cashing out some portion of it, maybe even $10million to $100 million.. if the guy might have had some specific purchase in mind.
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July 16, 2025, 12:49:56 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), bitmover (2)

TRUMP POSTED THIS, HAPPY CRYPTO WEEK

BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE IN NEXT COMING MONTHS.

But before then, who is ready for a NEW ATH ??



I was just reading that Trump said they now have the votes to advance this bill. I think the next step is where the senate would add no capital gains taxes on Bitcoin if they were going to. I have my doubts but am trying to remain optimistic. I think if we are going to see capital gains tax on Bitcoin abolished this year, it will have to happen now.
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July 16, 2025, 01:01:13 AM


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July 16, 2025, 01:07:22 AM


Did he actually cash out the full $2 billion or some portion of it?  I cannot imagine wanting to put $2 billion in cash, but I could imaging cashing out some portion of it, maybe even $10million to $100 million.. if the guy might have had some specific purchase in mind.

My thoughts exactly. Who needs to have $2B in cash? Even having a tenth of that in cash is overkill.

If I had that much I would take out a few hundred mill, live my best life and no longer care about the price of Bitcoin since the rest would go to my descendents. I doubt I would even spend half of the withdrawn cash within my lifetime.
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July 16, 2025, 01:16:56 AM


Did he actually cash out the full $2 billion or some portion of it?  I cannot imagine wanting to put $2 billion in cash, but I could imaging cashing out some portion of it, maybe even $10million to $100 million.. if the guy might have had some specific purchase in mind.

My thoughts exactly. Who needs to have $2B in cash? Even having a tenth of that in cash is overkill.

If I had that much I would take out a few hundred mill, live my best life and no longer care about the price of Bitcoin since the rest would go to my descendents. I doubt I would even spend half of the withdrawn cash within my lifetime.

Yeah 2 billion is enough.

Not sure of prior wealth for the person.

But I would imagine the person had some wealth. SAY low millions 5-10.

Cashed 100,000,000 just in case.

And holding the rest just in case cap gains become tax free.
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July 16, 2025, 01:38:17 AM

Bummer about the failed vote on crypto bills today. Apparently the exclusion of a ban on a central bank digital currency was the reason for the failure. It looks like they’ll be voting on it again later today with an amendment to get it passed. Then on to the senate, where hopefully they will add in the elimination of capital gains. Now is the time.

I actually like the "never a CBDC" part. Put it in please. Capital gains might be a tad extreme, harder.
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July 16, 2025, 01:57:02 AM
Last edit: July 16, 2025, 02:13:50 AM by Biodom

Bummer about the failed vote on crypto bills today. Apparently the exclusion of a ban on a central bank digital currency was the reason for the failure. It looks like they’ll be voting on it again later today with an amendment to get it passed. Then on to the senate, where hopefully they will add in the elimination of capital gains. Now is the time.

I actually like the "never a CBDC" part. Put it in please. Capital gains might be a tad extreme, harder.

"never CBDC" and "capital gains" are the two provisos that make the most sense.
cap gains: gold miners don't pay taxes when they unearth gold and even refine it...only when they sell.
farmers don't pay taxes when the cow gives birth to a calf-only when a farmer sell that "new" calf/cow.

So..why it is 'extreme'? It is just common sense. You sell mined bitcoin-then you pay tax on the income you've got-at least this is my take on it as the most logical way of thinking.
I don't really care about stablecoins and CLARITY.
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