Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

next 20k BTC on the move..

seems that OGs need fiat..

Awkward to see BTC dump against shitcoins

[Biodom]

next 20k BTC on the move..

seems that OGs need fiat..

Awkward to see BTC dump against shitcoins

They invest in treasury companies, perhaps, thus amplifying their stash, effectively, ...or so it seems...at least Adam Back just did it with 30K btc.

[Gachapin]

next 20k BTC on the move..

seems that OGs need fiat..

Awkward to see BTC dump against shitcoins

They invest in treasury companies, perhaps, thus amplifying their stash, effectively, ...or so it seems...at least Adam Back just did it with 30K btc.

how would that amplification work?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

next 20k BTC on the move..

seems that OGs need fiat..

Awkward to see BTC dump against shitcoins

They invest in treasury companies, perhaps, thus amplifying their stash, effectively, ...or so it seems...at least Adam Back just did it with 30K btc.

how would that amplification work?

See my prior post (a page or two back), but in short: treasury companies are trading at a premium to their btc net asset value (NAV) because they can raise additional funds.
This is the whole "game" of M. Saylor.
MSTR has about 76% premium to NAV (was as much as 200% beforehand).

Let's say, AB contributes 30K btc at 117K. This is $3.51 bil and then company raises 800mil in addition (to buy btc). AB would have  81.4% equity in the company, but the company might trade (if at MSTR premium) at 4.31X 1.76=7.586 bil, therefore his "portion" of the equity would be 6.174 bil, thereby he almost immediately "makes" 6.174-3.51=$2.66 bil.
On paper, of course, but you get the point. Metaplanet at some point had 6-8X over NAV, so my numbers are conservative.

[Gachapin]

next 20k BTC on the move..

seems that OGs need fiat..

Awkward to see BTC dump against shitcoins

They invest in treasury companies, perhaps, thus amplifying their stash, effectively, ...or so it seems...at least Adam Back just did it with 30K btc.

how would that amplification work?

See my prior post (a page or two back), but in short: treasury companies are trading at a premium to their btc net asset value (NAV) because they can raise additional funds.
This is the whole "game" of M. Saylor.
MSTR has about 76% premium to NAV (was as much as 200% beforehand).

Let's say, AB contributes 30K btc at 117K. This is $3.51 bil and then company raises 800mil in addition (to buy btc). AB would have  81.4% equity in the company, but the company might trade (if at MSTR premium) at 4.31X 1.76=7.586 bil, therefore his "portion" of the equity would be 6.174 bil, thereby he almost immediately "makes" 6.174-3.51=$2.66 bil.
On paper, of course, but you get the point. Metaplanet at some point had 6-8X over NAV, so my numbers are conservative.

Thanks!

[d_eddie]

Bummer about the failed vote on crypto bills today. Apparently the exclusion of a ban on a central bank digital currency was the reason for the failure. It looks like they’ll be voting on it again later today with an amendment to get it passed. Then on to the senate, where hopefully they will add in the elimination of capital gains. Now is the time.

I actually like the "never a CBDC" part. Put it in please. Capital gains might be a tad extreme, harder.

"never CBDC" and "capital gains" are the two provisos that make the most sense.
cap gains: gold miners don't pay taxes when they unearth gold and even refine it...only when they sell.
farmers don't pay taxes when the cow gives birth to a calf-only when a farmer sell that "new" calf/cow.

So..why it is 'extreme'? It is just common sense. You sell mined bitcoin-then you pay tax on the income you've got-at least this is my take on it as the most logical way of thinking.
I don't really care about stablecoins and CLARITY.

Ah, I was wrong. Actually, I was focusing more on the stablecoins and CLARITY side. That might turn out to be a big deal. If I'm getting it right, it will be a way to let the approved banks unlock funds to buy treasury T-bills (the most legitimate backing for a stablecoin), especially if their reserves should not be rewarded with interest anymore. This is akin to money printing for private banks, or at least similarly bullish for the M2 money supply. No effect on corn at all  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[raywhite714]

"Hello everyone, I'm Ray White Jr., custodian and inheritor of the SatoshiNakomoto repository. I'm here to connect with like-minded individuals and share insights on cryptographic provenance and Bitcoin's legacy."

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[yixichloro2xx]

You can theorize about the process, yet it seems to me that getting through a whole cycle of bitcoin accumulation will likely help you to have a bit of a track record, and even help you to figure out how well you might have been able to follow your original plan or if you might have had tweaked your plans at various points along the way.

In the last few years I have come to understand that anyone who is persistently accumulating bitcoin at a similar rate for 4 years is likely going to have average BTC prices that are right around the 200-WMA, and surely if your accumulation period is even longer then your average cost per BTC will be further and further below the 200-WMA.. which historically has tended to be a good place to be, especially if you can get your average cost per BTC to be more than 35% below the 200-WMA while still building a decently large BTC stash in the process.

Don't get me wrong, since I am not advocating that it is better to have a low cost of BTC rather than accumulating a decently large bitcoin stash, and as an investment, it can take a bit of time to have both the low cost per BTC and a decently large BTC stash.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Going through a full Bitcoin cycle gives you a better picture of how well your strategys should holds   up in real conditions, not just in theory. It also shows whether you stuck to your plan or had to adjust based on what the market threw at you.

I have  also noticed how powerful DCA can be over time. Staying consistent over four years tends to bring your average cost close to the 200week moving average, which historically is a solid position to be in. And if you keep going beyond that, your average   can end up even further below that level, which gives a stronger base for future gains.

Of course the main goal is to build a solid stack without over extending yourself and if that stack ends up being built at a strong average price, that is  even better. But finding that balance between growing your holdings and not chasing the lowest price is something that only time and discipline can really help you manage..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[kanftka]

Foundation Season 3 Episode 1 Was fantastic!

I have no doubt it will suck by the end of the season but this episode was a must watch even if you don't follow the series.

It stands on its own.

How do you see the mule?  In episode 1 after taking over Kalgan I think he is going be a big threat to Hari seldons whole plan...His powers of manipulation make him nearly impossible to predict, which completely breaks the psychohistory model. If the show does him right, he is going to flip everything upside down

Luckily I could never get through the book when I was younger so I don't know the story but He reminds me of the character in Dune that the spice or some such thing gave those mind powers to. I don't remember anything about last season and lost complete interest in it so i'll probably watch one of those youtube videos that recap the season so I can catch back up on the story line. I cant even remember what Harry's goal was on a global scale but he gives a interesting bit of info in this episode that I don't want to ruin. Is he a mind saved in a computer matrix or something, I cant really remember but I do remember the Empires make clones of themselfs so I'm assuming that's what he does?

Hari Seldon is  a kind of a digital ghost like a preserved mind in a system (like a computer matrix). He died early in the story but left behind an AI version of himself to guide the foundation, which he created to help shorten the collapse of the galactic empire and the dark age that follows.
‎
‎So basically,the foundation was meant to preserve knowledge and rebuild civilization faster, but over time, it is  growing in ways Hari didn’t fully plan  like mixing in religion and politics.... While the empire is ruled by cloned emperors which are the Cleon1 copies  in three forms,dawn (young), day (middle), and dusk (old). They are  supposed to be identical, but now they are starting to change emotionally and act unpredictably.
‎
‎Now there is also a rising threat called the Mule  a powerful figure who could completely break Haris psychohistory predictions.
‎
‎So yeah it is empires falling, clones glitching, a digital ghost trying to guide humanity, and a mysterious supervillain looming in the background. Season 3 is setting all of that up for chaos.....

Man fr, this is something else.
Hari really thought he had it all figured out, but now everything is just going sideways. It is mad how one guy like the Mule can throw off the whole plan, like all that math and prediction can not handle real life chaos.

And those Cleons? Watching them start to act different even though they are meant to be the same is crazy. You can see the cracks showing, and it is only getting worse.

Foundation turning into a full blown mess in the best way lol, empires crumbling, people going off script, and Hari ghost just trying to hold it all together. I didn’t think I would be this into it, but yeah, I am fully hooked now. Haha

[SaintFlow]

next 20k BTC on the move..

seems that OGs need fiat..

Awkward to see BTC dump against shitcoins

Call it a dump - someone bought and got their order filled at size.

Imagine you just turned a billionaire "on paper" and realized that there are many more people hodling 20k and imagined himself in a prisoner dilemma.
Imagine you wake up and feel the urge to diversify billions. Interesting thought experiment. How many chairs are you sitting on?

[El duderino_]

Off topic Haiku

Impossible task
4 remains W S O P
Grinder keeps grinding.

Goodluck #Kenny

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[promise444c5]

Did he actually cash out the full $2 billion or some portion of it?  I cannot imagine wanting to put $2 billion in cash, but I could imaging cashing out some portion of it, maybe even $10million to $100 million.. if the guy might have had some specific purchase in mind.

My thoughts exactly. Who needs to have $2B in cash? Even having a tenth of that in cash is overkill.

https://decrypt.co/330197/satoshi-era-bitcoin-whale-4-billion

[Hueristic]

Foundation Season 3 Episode 1 Was fantastic!

I have no doubt it will suck by the end of the season but this episode was a must watch even if you don't follow the series.

It stands on its own.

How do you see the mule?  In episode 1 after taking over Kalgan I think he is going be a big threat to Hari seldons whole plan...His powers of manipulation make him nearly impossible to predict, which completely breaks the psychohistory model. If the show does him right, he is going to flip everything upside down

Luckily I could never get through the book when I was younger so I don't know the story but He reminds me of the character in Dune that the spice or some such thing gave those mind powers to. I don't remember anything about last season and lost complete interest in it so i'll probably watch one of those youtube videos that recap the season so I can catch back up on the story line. I cant even remember what Harry's goal was on a global scale but he gives a interesting bit of info in this episode that I don't want to ruin. Is he a mind saved in a computer matrix or something, I cant really remember but I do remember the Empires make clones of themselfs so I'm assuming that's what he does?

Hari Seldon is  a kind of a digital ghost like a preserved mind in a system (like a computer matrix). He died early in the story but left behind an AI version of himself to guide the foundation, which he created to help shorten the collapse of the galactic empire and the dark age that follows.
‎
‎So basically,the foundation was meant to preserve knowledge and rebuild civilization faster, but over time, it is  growing in ways Hari didn’t fully plan  like mixing in religion and politics.... While the empire is ruled by cloned emperors which are the Cleon1 copies  in three forms,dawn (young), day (middle), and dusk (old). They are  supposed to be identical, but now they are starting to change emotionally and act unpredictably.
‎
‎Now there is also a rising threat called the Mule  a powerful figure who could completely break Haris psychohistory predictions.
‎
‎So yeah it is empires falling, clones glitching, a digital ghost trying to guide humanity, and a mysterious supervillain looming in the background. Season 3 is setting all of that up for chaos.....

Man fr, this is something else.
Hari really thought he had it all figured out, but now everything is just going sideways. It is mad how one guy like the Mule can throw off the whole plan, like all that math and prediction can not handle real life chaos.

And those Cleons? Watching them start to act different even though they are meant to be the same is crazy. You can see the cracks showing, and it is only getting worse.

Foundation turning into a full blown mess in the best way lol, empires crumbling, people going off script, and Hari ghost just trying to hold it all together. I didn’t think I would be this into it, but yeah, I am fully hooked now. Haha

I thought the rebels swapped the youngest ones DNA?

[kanftka]

Foundation Season 3 Episode 1 Was fantastic!

I have no doubt it will suck by the end of the season but this episode was a must watch even if you don't follow the series.

It stands on its own.

How do you see the mule?  In episode 1 after taking over Kalgan I think he is going be a big threat to Hari seldons whole plan...His powers of manipulation make him nearly impossible to predict, which completely breaks the psychohistory model. If the show does him right, he is going to flip everything upside down

Luckily I could never get through the book when I was younger so I don't know the story but He reminds me of the character in Dune that the spice or some such thing gave those mind powers to. I don't remember anything about last season and lost complete interest in it so i'll probably watch one of those youtube videos that recap the season so I can catch back up on the story line. I cant even remember what Harry's goal was on a global scale but he gives a interesting bit of info in this episode that I don't want to ruin. Is he a mind saved in a computer matrix or something, I cant really remember but I do remember the Empires make clones of themselfs so I'm assuming that's what he does?

Hari Seldon is  a kind of a digital ghost like a preserved mind in a system (like a computer matrix). He died early in the story but left behind an AI version of himself to guide the foundation, which he created to help shorten the collapse of the galactic empire and the dark age that follows.
‎
‎So basically,the foundation was meant to preserve knowledge and rebuild civilization faster, but over time, it is  growing in ways Hari didn’t fully plan  like mixing in religion and politics.... While the empire is ruled by cloned emperors which are the Cleon1 copies  in three forms,dawn (young), day (middle), and dusk (old). They are  supposed to be identical, but now they are starting to change emotionally and act unpredictably.
‎
‎Now there is also a rising threat called the Mule  a powerful figure who could completely break Haris psychohistory predictions.
‎
‎So yeah it is empires falling, clones glitching, a digital ghost trying to guide humanity, and a mysterious supervillain looming in the background. Season 3 is setting all of that up for chaos.....

Man fr, this is something else.
Hari really thought he had it all figured out, but now everything is just going sideways. It is mad how one guy like the Mule can throw off the whole plan, like all that math and prediction can not handle real life chaos.

And those Cleons? Watching them start to act different even though they are meant to be the same is crazy. You can see the cracks showing, and it is only getting worse.

Foundation turning into a full blown mess in the best way lol, empires crumbling, people going off script, and Hari ghost just trying to hold it all together. I didn’t think I would be this into it, but yeah, I am fully hooked now. Haha

I thought the rebels swapped the youngest ones DNA?

Yeah, that is what happened. The rebels messed with the youngest Cleon’s DNA, Dawn. I think that happened in a part of Season 2. They made sure he was not an exact copy like the others, just to shake the whole dynasty from within.

The crazy part is how that one small change started exposing all the cracks. Day lost it when he found out. He was ready to kill Dawn just to protect the legacy. And it was obvious that the perfect clone system was already falling apart emotionally and politically.

Now, It is not just about outside enemies anymore, the Empire is breaking from the inside. That DNA change looks minor, but it is not..