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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26967614 times)
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September 06, 2025, 04:31:33 AM

The crazy part of the MSTR snub is that they added 2 companies with lower market caps. To me that signals not a lot of faith in Bitcoin. Saylor now finds himself in a spot where he is going to have to pump the price higher between now and December by any means or else it is definitely game over for this cycle.

he does btc no favors.

I frankly do not want him in the sp 500

and to think that ends the so called four year cycle shows me a lot of other btc people do not have much faith.

My guess is we see a five or 6 year up trend which means 2026 or 2027 before a drop.
This can’t be said to be completely wrong.Saylor is definitely a big name in the bitcoin space. but BTC cycles depend on liquidity, global monetary policy adoption rate and investor sentiment. Historically the 4-5 year cycle was linked to the mining reward halving. but with ETFs and institutional involvement now, this cycle could extend. So, a bullissh trend may continue until 2026/2027 with a major correction likely afterward.
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September 06, 2025, 05:12:29 AM

The crazy part of the MSTR snub is that they added 2 companies with lower market caps. To me that signals not a lot of faith in Bitcoin. Saylor now finds himself in a spot where he is going to have to pump the price higher between now and December by any means or else it is definitely game over for this cycle.

he does btc no favors.

I frankly do not want him in the sp 500

and to think that ends the so called four year cycle shows me a lot of other btc people do not have much faith.

My guess is we see a five or 6 year up trend which means 2026 or 2027 before a drop.
If this happens it will be the first time to see 5 to 6 years uptrend cycle in the history of Bitcoin.

At least investors would be glad to milk the market for consecutive years after previous loses during the bear market.

Change in market structure will tell a wonderful story while investors count their eggs  as price match to $150k then $200k...$250k continuously.

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September 06, 2025, 06:18:01 AM


Yup. Lemme live that fantasy.
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September 06, 2025, 06:21:30 AM
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Some guy (who speaks a bit like the "mad hatter" from "Alice in wonderland") proudly predicts MSTR bankruptcy scenario in 2026.

I dunno. I don't see any mathematical possibility for MSTR to go bankrupt. Saylor seems to have engineered it well.

OTOH, I'm not convinced that everyone that has bought their stock will be above water in perpetuity.

YMMV. DYOR.
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September 06, 2025, 06:25:02 AM

Samson Mow talks about an "omega candle".  I think hes probably onto something.  We will see...

Even a stopped clock it correct twice each day.
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September 06, 2025, 06:26:53 AM

By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  
I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.
What a legend  Cool
Nah - just a person with patience and a vision...

Your vision (or would it be visions?) with bcash and bsv (ie bcash sv) did not go very well.

Your kidding, right? You gotta be.

Current market price notwithstanding, name a more _capable_ blockchain than BSV.

I can wait....
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September 06, 2025, 07:00:10 AM
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At one point, BSV was very capable. Capable of attracting scumbags, thieves & con artists. They all felt at home there. After it became apparent it had no future they went elsewhere, however. Now BSV is just lingering reminder that

1) brute scaling techniques don't work, and
2) nobody wants to use a coin run by sociopaths.

A cautionary tale about the excesses of greed, shamelessness, and hubris, all rolled into one.
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September 06, 2025, 07:19:25 AM
Last edit: September 06, 2025, 07:36:08 AM by OutOfMemory
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By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  
I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.
What a legend  Cool
Nah - just a person with patience and a vision...

Your vision (or would it be visions?) with bcash and bsv (ie bcash sv) did not go very well.

Your kidding, right? You gotta be.

Current market price notwithstanding, name a more _capable_ blockchain than BSV.

I can wait....

Please just don't.
Not again.
Maybe make a new thread, if such not already exists?

EDIT: Also, it should be called BCSWV, to match the trial result, no?
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September 06, 2025, 09:02:30 AM
Last edit: September 06, 2025, 09:33:26 AM by JayJuanGee
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<snip>
But at our current point I am quite confused.  

<snip>Even in the presence of all these things... the cycle continues.
Bitcoin does not care.
I agree with the confusion part, not 100% agree with the second, but don't disagree either...it just remains to be seen.
Some guy (who speaks a bit like the "mad hatter" from "Alice in wonderland") proudly predicts MSTR bankruptcy scenario in 2026.

I don't buy it necessarily, but MSTR gyrations is something bitcoin would have to endure at some point.
It may be at least moderately likely that bitcoin would at some point undergo a secular bear market, but I don't envision this happening until 8-10 tril in market cap (or maybe even higher).

It seems that a lot of hodlers are uncertain about the state of the market rn.

You mean that a secular bear market has to come in bitcoin merely because it has largely been in a bull market since 2011/2012-ish?

If we have exponential s-curve adoption, then there is no reason that a "secular bear market" would have to happen merely based on a 4/5x increase from here..

That makes little sense.

Sure we have all kinds of manipulation attempts, but there is no reason that bitcoin might not get to 300 Trillion to 500 trillion or more before some kind of a more meaningful bear market might play out... but even then...

In other words if something is still in its early stages of adoption (which bitcoin seems to be in spite of some folks/institutions/governments seeming to focus and to want to hoard it), there is no reason that any kind of a secular bear market is imminent even within a cycle or two or three.... in spite the existence of likely ongoing attacks from status quo incumbents who are still trying to wrap their minds (and practices) around it to accept it rather than to battle it.. For their own sake it is likely better and/or easier to just figure out ways to try to accept it.. even though, yeah, I wouldn't really expect bitcoin's path forward to be that easy. and/or unambiguously upward without meaningful attempts at battling it..

I don't think everyone knows the rules around here from the get go.
..I am glad that he/she/(bot?) cooperated...and no fuss, apparently.

Plagiarism is pretty serious in this forum and not even the first time that twat had gotten caught doing it.

The price is up nearly $4,000 in the last half a day and continues to rise. I like that… We seem to have broken the downtrend. There isn’t really any resistance between $113,500 and $117,000, so a move up from here would start to make this rally look pretty aggressive.

Within 24 hours, Bitcoin price went up and then fell down 4k$. Just keep an eye on Bitcoin in the long run, I am waiting for the day when it will hit 200k$.

What you going to do then (at $200k)?

I suspect that probably at around $200k-ish, you will sell too many too soon... since you still seem getting overly excited about that price, and you seem to be struggling with the idea of investing into bitcoin, rather than trading it and/or trying to play its likely ongoing and likely inevitable waves.

 What a strange coincidence these last 4 ~5  hours
seem to have sold BTC and bought gold in the same time?


Don't get distracted by gold.

It is an inferior product.

By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  
I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.
What a legend  Cool
Nah - just a person with patience and a vision...
Your vision (or would it be visions?) with bcash and bsv (ie bcash sv) did not go very well.
Your kidding, right? You gotta be.
Current market price notwithstanding, name a more _capable_ blockchain than BSV.

I can wait....

You may well be waiting for a long time at that picnic table like a skeleton of your former lil bear selfie.

Of course, I am not kidding.. Why should anyone, including yours truly, even need to go down this path with your ongoing, persistent and irrational stubborn lil selfie.

It seems that through all of these years, you still have not figured out by now that the value in bitcoin is not merely about a few features here and there.

If any shitcoin wants to beat the incumbent (namely dee cornz), they need to be clearly and unambiguously in the ballpark of 10x better that the cornz, other wise the incumbent is going to hang onto its position.

Have you heard of bitcoin?

Bitcoin is more than 10x better than the dollar and gold.. and that is why it is going to continue to beat the shit out of both of them and continue to take market share from both of them (including other places where monetary value is stored and/or even transacted).  There is no shitcoin that is even close to bitcoin in terms of sound money qualities, including but not limited to your supposed lovely little project with the scammer manipulators,  i.e. bcash sv.. ..

Yeah, sure there are going to be all kinds of ways to transact value, including bitcoin, but bitcoin does not completely get its value merely for its ability to be transacted without difficulties, it gets its value from other sound money attributes that include but not limited to its scarcity, verifiability, portability, divisibility, etc.

It's sad that you have not learned your lesson and/or learned what bitcoin is over the past many years, even though you are a technical guy and you do not seem to be dumb, but for some reason you still seem to think some arguable technical superiorities (even if such technical superiorities were true) would be enough to steal away bitcoin's network effects (in the spirit of those outlined by Trace Mayer).   

And, of course bitcoin has an ability to be spent directly, yet Gresham law principles are going to continue to incentivize folks to spend their inferior monies before spending their bitcoin, so the mere fact that other coins are being transacted upon does not give them value - especially if no one is really wanting to hold them, besides nutjob speculators who might not even understand the thing that they are holding does not have as much value as they consider it to have.

By the way, we have had these kinds of discussions in the past, and if you are going to persuade any of us to want to consider any shitcoin (including Bcash sv, aka BSV) as some kind of better product, you have to persuade factually (meaning that you have the burden of production of evidence) and you have to persuade logically (burden of persuasion that the various logical pieces fit together to support your conclusion, ie that BSV, shitcoin, is superior to bitcoin)..

You want to suggest that I (or any other person supporting bitcoin) has any such burdens?  Bullshit.. You almost deserve batslap for that nonsense - if some of us did not miss you so much, you are going to quickly go back to your previous argumentative self..  about about a dumbass scam shitcoin?  You go... you have the burden, so no need to wait for me to try to produce evidence or logic to dispute your baloney assertions... even if you are likely technically smarter than me (and many guys here) you are seemingly otherwise retarded about what brings value to bitcoin (sorry to come out with hardball assertions in regards to what you seem to be wanting to suggest that you were not wrong about that shitcoin, BSV).
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September 06, 2025, 10:19:32 AM
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Surely we break out to the upside soon, we’ve seen no euphoria, no excitement, no parabolic move to the upside like previous bull runs. I’m not sure if you can even call this current situation a bull run. We started the year at 95k, we are at 110k which is pretty pathetic really.

We’re not even up 20% in 2025. we’re being vastly outperformed by Gold. I refuse to believe the top is in at 124k, it can’t be surely. Q4 is when the fireworks will begin and if not, well, is that the end of huge gains in Bitcoin?



@merlijntrader
WHAT IF THE BITCOIN BOTTOM IS ALREADY IN?

2017 bottomed in July.
2021 bottomed in July.

Every post-election year July bottoms. Never September.

2025 is running the same script.

If you’re still waiting for September lows…
Q4 ignition is closer than most think.

https://x.com/merlijntrader/status/1964237133000167449
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September 06, 2025, 11:34:45 AM
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Surely we break out to the upside soon, we’ve seen no euphoria, no excitement, no parabolic move to the upside like previous bull runs. I’m not sure if you can even call this current situation a bull run. We started the year at 95k, we are at 110k which is pretty pathetic really.

We’re not even up 20% in 2025. we’re being vastly outperformed by Gold. I refuse to believe the top is in at 124k, it can’t be surely. Q4 is when the fireworks will begin and if not, well, is that the end of huge gains in Bitcoin?


LFC, the US unemployment numbers are rising, quite a lot, actually. I can't link sources, because all i know about this is from a chart in a youtube video i watched in the morning. The FED is now expected to lower rates (100% expectation for 25bpt, roughly 15% expectation for 50 bpt cut) and Powell is not the dumb guy Trump wants to make us believe he is. Bitcoin and ETFs are still part of the economy, since it slowly (or fast, it depends on perspective) emerged from the geeky-cheeky internet pizza money to a public store of value. Maybe a few percent of "1st world people" were grasping this until today, and it is scepticism that is keeping more people from taking risks (relatively spoken - keeping fiat money out of scope here).
Those who turn market cycles against themselves (aka FOMOers) will burn their money, but those are controlled by greed, so maybe it's just what they deserve in a greater scheme of things, and it's a part of their learning curve. They will either stay out or adjust, but those are still only forming a relatively small group of buyers.

To me, it looks good, even if it bores the shit out of my ass right now.
We are still early.

EDIT: If you still remember, i entered Sept 2017 and it felt like now. Then a 15% dip occured before things went up considerably faster than before in that year.
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