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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26839629 times)
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September 09, 2025, 11:26:15 PM

Anyone using a wallet that depends on J.S. needs a bitch slap to begin with.
I have Blue wallet on my device  Smiley
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September 10, 2025, 01:27:16 AM
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It's weird how complicated people like to make shit. People have been talking about Elliot waves and bitcoin since I started here in 2013. Buy now, sell now, definitely this is what the future holds. Sounds fucking stressful if you ask me. Plus a recipe to end up with 0 bitcoin. I'm sure there are people out there that have made a killing, survivorship bias and all that. Maybe even a couple know what the fuck they are talking about. Still stressful.

With btc the KISS principle has always worked out pretty fucking well, and will continue to do so as far as I can see.

Buy bitcoin. Only sell if you absolutely have to. Like a loved one needs a kidney, or the bank is coming to repossess your house or some shit. In bear markets don't look at the price. Sometimes for years. Chill the fuck out. Don't think you are smarter than you really are, sure as fuck don't think you are smarter than the chaos that is bitcoin price movements.

Buy bitcoin. Don't stress. Don't sell. Don't be greedystupid.

If every chart producing oracle that has come and gone from these pages had done that, there would be a lot more rich forum members. Your charts, models and fancy theories will send you broke. I'll still be here. Once I forgot my password for 3 years. Thank god for JohnTheRipper.

Buy bitcoin. Chill the fuck out.

Nice post.  The Bitcoin way...

Matt Odell made the saying "Stay humble - stack sats" famous.  It is in the same vibe as your above philosophy.

I admit I never liked the "humble" word in there.  Not because I do not think humility is important, but he uses it in a very narrow definition.  Humility is something valuable to cultivate accross all domains of one's life.  I have failed in many, but I am not done yet.

Still... I kinda like your version better: "Chill the fuck out. Don't think you are smarter than you really are, sure as fuck don't think you are smarter than the chaos that is bitcoin price movements."
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...
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September 10, 2025, 03:29:51 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2025, 03:52:42 AM by Biodom
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Can't believe its been nearly 13 years since I started posting on the wall observer thread. Cheering for the downfall of the bear whale. Hearing the same FUD over and over again. Updating bitcoin core over and over again, checking the binaries, devising stronger and stronger security as my investment went from 4 figures, to 5 figures, to 6 figures, then 7.... and now finally hitting 8 figures. From a $5k investment. Crazy. While everyone in my real day to day life told me it was stupid, a scam, a total waste of money, destroying the planet, a right wing grift.

About to finally sell 1/3 of my stash. Will buy a mostly passive business returning $400k a year....for ever. Generation wealth for the kids i have had since that first investment. No going without food like I had to growing up. No getting bullied for wearing hand me down dunlop volleys. No eating carrots on Canteen days because Mum couldn't afford to spare any cash. 100% certain I would be better off just hodling the BTC, but can't pass up the chance to set my family up with cash flow for life. I'm sure lots of people here have had to make similar decisions .

And the only people that really understand are you reprobate fuckers....the ones that have been here with me the whole time....the ones that believed when the world called us crazy. The ones that made me laugh. So thanks everyone. I'll keep most of my stash, and I'll keep checking in here, reading the thread when ever I feel down, or like a need a laugh. Here's to all you fuckers. I love you all, and I love how far we have come.


Big congrats!
That said...somehow I have a feeling that we might also know you by some other nick...otherwise, what a posting/logging restraint over 12 years!
Of course, you don't need to answer.

Notably, "passive business returning $400k a year....for ever" hardly exist, as far as "forever" part is concerned.
Surely, you can buy a bond of a long duration that guarantees the cash flow as long as the country in question perseveres undisturbed, but business?
Perhaps, I am just not familiar with some businesses that are essentially forever.
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...

KuCoin announces cloud mining to begin September 16.  They will have some 10 EH/s at the start and will use water-cooled miners.  Also will offer mining for DOGE and LTC.  Other then that, not a whole lot of details.

https://cointelegraph.com/press-releases/kucoin-presents-kumining-embodying-simple-mining-smart-gains

If it looks like it might work out to be economical for users, I may join KuCoin as another exchange to buy & sell BTC.

I have been reading this fat thread carefully for the past few days, and I can see in detail that many people have made many complaints about Kucoin. KuCoin exchange has been defrauding users and has disabled withdrawals for thousands of accounts. So I must tell you that if you need to buy and sell other coins including Bitcoin, then I recommend that you use an exchange other than KuCoin.
Enter this link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5557466.msg65752334#msg65752334

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About to finally sell 1/3 of my stash. Will buy a mostly passive business returning $400k a year....for ever.


So just selling 1/3 of hitting 8 figures = north of 3,5-ish mil. $
What is the invest preference for you this kinda days? returning 400k a year?
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So another day sideways.  and the 106-124 slot is extended .

Dec to Sept so far.
Crazy how weak Bitcoin has been this year so far.
Really hope to see it take off soon, we’re getting comfortably outperformed by Gold this year which is kinda pathetic.

I have to maintain conviction that we break out soon, surely.

I think that bitcoin is performing fine.

Sure, from time to time, there are going to be other assets that might appear to be outperforming bitcoin in short or medium term timeframes.

The zoomed out pictures shows that bitcoin is eating the fuck out of gold's lunch, but hey whatever, if you want to get distracted by short-to-medium noise, then that is on you.

By the way, I would also consider that gold is not a threat to the powers that be, since they have already figured out various ways to control it, so there could even be some attempts by the powers that be to pump gold, even though they are likely retarded in terms of how much money they are going to end up losing by betting on the gold horse rather than on the bitcoin horse, and for sure there are quite a few folks recently coming out of hybernation to tell us how wonderful gold is.  [insert eye-rolling meme here].

Anyone using a wallet that depends on J.S. needs a bitch slap to begin with.
I have Blue wallet on my device  Smiley

I did a quickie search to ask the internet (AI is everywhere these days) whether BlueWallet uses Java Script, and sure the answer was yes.

I use BlueWallet and I have been recommending it as a "good" starting wallet... but yeah of course with any hot wallet (or wallet held on a phone), we have to be careful in regards to how much value we hold on such phone wallets (hot wallets).

Can't believe its been nearly 13 years since I started posting on the wall observer thread. Cheering for the downfall of the bear whale. Hearing the same FUD over and over again. Updating bitcoin core over and over again, checking the binaries, devising stronger and stronger security as my investment went from 4 figures, to 5 figures, to 6 figures, then 7.... and now finally hitting 8 figures. From a $5k investment. Crazy. While everyone in my real day to day life told me it was stupid, a scam, a total waste of money, destroying the planet, a right wing grift.

I hate to do the math, even though I did the math.. the fewest number of coins that you could have (at spot prices)  to have had touched upon 8 digits would be 80 BTC.. .and in order to get 80 BTC for ONLY $5k, you would have had to pay $62.50 per coin or less  - unless you traded yourself out of your average cost per BTC...

Of course the last time that BTC prices touched upon $62.50 was in 2013.  I am not sure if it dipped all the way to $62.50 after the run up to $263 in March/April 2013, but it was not any long lasting price, even though before February or so of 2013, you could have had easily gotten BTC for less than $62.50 and even less than $10 for most of 2012 and into the first few weeks of 2013.  

About to finally sell 1/3 of my stash. Will buy a mostly passive business returning $400k a year....for ever.

That does not sound like a good idea.. but hey whatever do what you like.

Take the best investment in the world and stick it in a likely inferior investment.

If  you were to have 80 bitcoin or more, then currently that quantity of bitcoin would allow you to withdraw $410k per year in a perpetually sustainable way, and sure the main issue is cashing out $410k every year..  Bitcoin would also allow you to have a 7% increase in the amount each year... so $410k in year 1, $439k in year 2, $470k in year 3, $502k in year 4, etc, etc, etc.

I am not opposed to diversifying some of it out, even though surely bitcoin seems solid.. but again, yeah whatever floats your boat

Even if you withdrew 1/3, the remaining 53.3 BTC .. Could generate you around $280k per year with 7% increases each year, which will likely cause it to surpass the value of your inferior investment (cashflow)  in a cycle or two.  I have not worked out the numbers of course, and future performance does remain a wee bit of a speculation, too... so there is that angle, too.

Generation wealth for the kids i have had since that first investment. No going without food like I had to growing up. No getting bullied for wearing hand me down dunlop volleys. No eating carrots on Canteen days because Mum couldn't afford to spare any cash. 100% certain I would be better off just hodling the BTC, but can't pass up the chance to set my family up with cash flow for life. I'm sure lots of people here have had to make similar decisions .

It is not unreasonable.. especially if you are really ONLY cashing out around 1/3 of it.

And the only people that really understand are you reprobate fuckers....the ones that have been here with me the whole time....the ones that believed when the world called us crazy. The ones that made me laugh. So thanks everyone. I'll keep most of my stash, and I'll keep checking in here, reading the thread when ever I feel down, or like a need a laugh. Here's to all you fuckers. I love you all, and I love how far we have come.

The experience is a bit surreal for those of us who largely held and accumulated for a couple of cycles or more, and surely there can be quite a bit of value to the front loading aspect, even though it would have had been difficult to get 80-ish BTC for ONLY $5k.   I subscribe to more of the ongoing investment philosophy, even though surely buying on the dip could have had worked out.. so in some sense, you had a bit of a different approach than what I would have had imagined, even if there might have had been some front loading of the initial $5k.. I would have considered ongoing buying at least to a point.. but yeah, what do I know?

Call me a wet blanket.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy    Tongue Tongue

[edited out]
Big congrats!
That said...somehow I have a feeling that we might also know you by some other nick...otherwise, what a posting/logging restraint over 12 years!
Of course, you don't need to answer.

I recall seeing him chime in from time to time over the years.

Notably, "passive business returning $400k a year....for ever" hardly exist, as far as "forever" part is concerned.
 

I hardly buy that part either... since .let's says that the $400k per year is coming from $4 million that had been cashed out of bitcoin.  No traditional investment is going to pay you at that rate 10% .. .. They might pay you at 4% for the ability to use $4 million in cash which would be around $160k per year... .. which is also part of the justification to keep it in bitcoin, even though surely like I mentioned above, I am not opposed to the idea of diversifying. .especially if it is ONLY 1/3 of the stash....
 
Surely, you can buy a bond of a long duration that guarantees the cash flow as long as the country in question perseveres undisturbed, but business?
Perhaps, I am just not familiar with some businesses that are essentially forever.

Some specifics might be helpful to describe such a financial tool/device if it were to exist.

And, yeah, congrats Biodom, you out wet-blanketed me.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


[edited out]
Thanks man! I may have more than one account lol. Even had one stolen by Russian's over that time lol.

It's barely a business. Just a form of industrial real estate that the world will probably be in need of for a long time, that requires very little input from me, in an area where they are definitely not making more industrial real estate. Basically a landlord, with a few wrinkles.

I have my doubts that income will be up to expectations.  Sounds like you will be get scammed out of $4 million and/or 1/3 of your bitcoin stash... hahahahaha.. even though yeah, it might also work out.. .. so sure, you have your own level of due diligence in terms of considering if the numbers are correct.

Oh, and by the way, I have a hard time believing, also, that a guy might be able to get through 12.5 years investing in bitcoin without some drama..

...KuCoin announces cloud mining to begin September 16.  They will have some 10 EH/s at the start and will use water-cooled miners.  Also will offer mining for DOGE and LTC.  Other then that, not a whole lot of details.

https://cointelegraph.com/press-releases/kucoin-presents-kumining-embodying-simple-mining-smart-gains

If it looks like it might work out to be economical for users, I may join KuCoin as another exchange to buy & sell BTC.
I have been reading this fat thread carefully for the past few days, and I can see in detail that many people have made many complaints about Kucoin. KuCoin exchange has been defrauding users and has disabled withdrawals for thousands of accounts. So I must tell you that if you need to buy and sell other coins including Bitcoin, then I recommend that you use an exchange other than KuCoin.
Enter this link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5557466.msg65752334#msg65752334

You are likely correct that cloud mining (and telling everyone how wonderful it is going to be, blah blah blah) is likely merely just another way for KuCoin, et al, to scam its users.
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The world would be much better if people questioned, but no, there are very few who question what it is because it is happening around us and around the world, governments throw poison in the air and say that it is to kill mosquitoes, but those who die are the bees and dragonflies, who control the larvae and mosquitoes,.... JJGEE is a good example of a questioner, although not all the questions he asks have a defined goal, but in most of them, they are very interesting questions to answer. for a better world, we need more JJG!





The first week of September could be better for BTC....   just like in September 2022, Although things are different now.the signs are not good....
... for September, and I think October and November onwards will be same from 2022 as well... also, maybe(hehehe...)


You seem to have had gotten your years wrong.

If you understand that bitcoin has been in a 4-year cycle pattern for the past 16-ish years (sure it is not necessarily precise, but it is how many of us consider the BTC price movements and/or dynamics).

Accordingly, since we are in 2025, then we are looking at 2021 as the place where we are at and not 2022..... since 2022 was pattern upon a downward year that came after the 2021 top, and yeah, the pattern may well not be exact, but if you are looking at 2022 you are in the wrong part of the cycle since 2022 goes along with 2026 looking forward and it goes along with 2018 looking back.


Don't get me wrong. There are some guys who are considering that the 4- year cycle could break at any time, yet it seems to be better to counting the dynamics of the 4-year cycle rather than making up some theory that makes little sense... especially 2022 was totally a down year and we spent 2023, 2024 and this year slowly (and sometimes not so slowly) grinding up from the 2022 lows.. and so therefore questions relate to the extent to which the cycle might be ending or if we might have some kind of a blow off top or potentially otherwise deviating from the four-year cycle by going into some kind of an extended uppity period that drags in to 2026 - which many people consider to still be possible, but it still does not put us into 2022 based on actual dynamics of where we are at, and 2022 we ended up going below the 200-WMA for right around 16 months, and ever since about early 2024 we have been significantly above the 200-WMA.. including currently - nearly 120%  above the 200-WMA.

Wouldn't' you consider the dynamics to be different right now since we are 120%-ish above the 200-WMA as compared to September 5, 2022 (the date circled on your chart, when we were about 14% below the 200-WMA?

What you are saying is confusing, and you are proclaiming to aspire towards being a bitcoin trader. Right?



No, in this case, I wanted to show the same date with a similar pattern, in the case of the same day/month of a different year, on the day I wrote it was the same day ...nothing relevant, just the pattern that , I see similarity because it is coming from a top, in the case of 2022, , the top was much further away, Taking into account the same date that i d mention, but also as I said, things are different now, institutional demand.
 I believe that your question has already come with the answer,....., more dynamic market, perhaps a shortening of the cycle, already predicting the next cycle and more demand...........

.I also see how little time it, the price, stays low after it reaches a new high?.. still above 110, and now seems to be reversing the process, as if it had formed a shoulder head shoulder in the monthly.this after it passed in 116 ~120, with good volume, seller in 4 out of seven weeks...,  And I also didn't say if the price will fall or rise... but the last line meeting was at 116, which has a good volume in that area.... But didn't I say buy or sell? Told? It was not and will not make a trade warning, however, just a similar detail in the dynamic price on the same day and month, three years ago.....

Is it okay?, where I'm wrong, can you correct me, please.

I did not want to repeat, but, I will try different,,. Why would I copy a chart out there to show just one detail?

Quote
By the way, is that your chart with the various squigglies?  or did you get such chart from someone else?
Grin Roll Eyes



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Well, it seems that Saylor is an example to follow for every institution:
...and perhaps creating a honey pot for Uncle Sam to take.
true!
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