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News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 30.2 [Torrent]
 
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26911936 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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October 26, 2025, 12:14:54 AM

buddy is holding us up over 110k for now which I can work with
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October 26, 2025, 02:21:48 AM

Russia is now using bitcoin for foreign trade.

Chinese oligarchs use bitcoin to get money out of the country.

Meanwhile, Trump tariff announcements are used as cover for insiders to put in massive shorts on BTC.


https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1982270024527073404?t=QmXWPb8Q3dE_JLnNUWiZMA&s=19
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October 26, 2025, 03:36:56 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

that is a fair offer lets give it til Feb 2027 which is about 15 months.

 I figure that is long enough to see if an attack causing a huge mess will happen due to expansion to 100,000kb.

I know you could be correct and it is a non issue

although maybe I am right and caution would have been better.
The pick is more than fair and a honest one. I accept it. I will bookmark this post. Of course it is better that I am right about this in terms of consequences for the network, but let's wait and see.

What about you OutOfMemory? Do you want the same date or do you want more time?


If the Core side is proven to be right again, I hope that some of you will take that as a lesson to stop siding with the doomsday side in the future (regardless of the topic). The stories that Core is corrupt, that Gloria fucked her way to the top, that OP_RETURN will be the end of us all are easy to believe because of narrative bias. They are all appealing and juicy stories. The opposite of this is "everything is fine, nothing is wrong"; it is just very boring. Most people tend to be biased towards some juicy stories, even if they consider themselves "independent thinkers" (which is not possible for those that easily fall under this spell).

thank you and lets stop fighting over it .. It is done while I would have preferred a multi step approach to get there maybe  this is better.

Worst case scenario it sucks and there is a reset backwards to a lower number.

How do you guys plan to decide who is right/wrong over this "issue"?

I mean... the difference will probably be subtle in its impact...

It's not that it opens new ways to spam the blockchain but it certainly makes it a bit more direct (no need for out-of-band "tricks") and also probably a bit cheaper because of the increased mining pool competition for those over-the-previous-soft-limit tx's. Also probably some overall increase in the "standard" mempool size as now those tx's will propagate over all (assuming no tinkering with datacarriersize) core30 nodes.

We are talking about, maybe, a 5-25% (max) impact in those metrics... which is not directly distinguishable from previous "volatility" and/or other external events that happen "naturally" over time.

So, again... how do you guys plan to evaluate who was right? Based on which metrics and what amount of "acceptable deviation"... against which "previous baseline"?

If this were a bet I would find extremely hard how to declare a "winner".



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October 26, 2025, 03:45:16 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2)

I can continue the series tomorrow if people want.

Sounds good.

Good news, or bad news?
Trump pardons Binance founder Changpeng Zhao

Quote
Changpeng Zhao, founder of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance, has been pardoned by US President Donald Trump.
Zhao, also known as "CZ", was sentenced to four months in prison in April 2024 after pleading guilty to violating US money laundering laws.

Binance also pleaded guilty and was ordered to pay $4.3bn (£3.4bn) after a US investigation found it helped users bypass sanctions.
The pardon reignited debate over the White House embrace of cryptocurrency as the Trump family's own investments in the industry have deepened.

Overall, it sounds good to me.

Why didn't you express an opinion?  Do you have one?

Massive Bitcoin orange pill spotted in Lugano, Switzerland

X

You don't have an opinion either in regards to such a seemingly straight-forward topic?

SATOSHI STATUE IS BACK IN LUGANO, SWITZERLAND
MOST BEAUTIFUL TRIBUTE TO THE LEGEND!
https://x.com/BitcoinConfEUR/status/1981697522130419874?t=T4q7hkvvXwLp-RRgzszujQ&s=19


And?

Do you have any opinion about it?

Next in my series will be a summary of the two arguments.  I will try to be balanced. Wink 

You are worse than me.. .as far as length.. . .

Gonna have to start calling you "wordy man".  .

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Most of the users should not have an opinion on this topic, you do not understand what you are talking about.
This is a very good sample of one of the most used arguments by both sides.  Though I think it has been used much more heavily by the pro-core contingent (the Knots side could be chided similarly for thier overuse of the CSAM argument just to be fair).

"Shut up.  You should not even have an opinion.  You are too stupid."
Yes, when you regularly come to wrong opinions and spread misinformation you should shut up.

I don't buy the "you should shut up" argument, even though I do understand that some folks are wrong and they are disingenuine in their attempts to engage on the topic, and they may also be spreading wrong and/or bad information. 

I doubt that cAPSLOCK fits in such category of disingenuine-ness.. even though there are likely areas that he is wrong.

... in the meantime, I'm waiting for the last few days of the month to see if Bitcoin will close below or above the opening of the month.

Why does it matter if bitcoin closes October higher or lower than it's price at the opening of the month?

To me, where bitcoin closes at the end of the month (as long as it is within 20% or so of the opening price), seems like a BIG "SO FUCKING WHAT?"  Sure, there might be some significance with BIG divergence, but mere 5% to 15% in either direction?  Not easy for me to see the significance.

..and say that I have been following what _cAPSLOCK have been saying, I have always had a concern with consensus, forks, disagreements, and also with time, new members will replace them, and we do not know what they will think, since the current ones are already in this misdemeanor...  Whether it is right or wrong on some points, I believe it is a valid concern. but it is also a subject that I prefer to just follow and leave to you experts.
Congratulations, with this approach you are already smarter than any filterboy no matter how many years they have been in Bitcoin.  Smiley Just always be careful what experts you choose to listen to, often bias plays a role.

In any case, definitely don't listen to the religious transaction-tsar wannabe luke-jr or the ethereum advisor who had a stroke mr. Szabo.

I have a hard time understanding how it helps to call names, even though filterboy is a funny name,. but it is not conducive to substantive discussions... even though I get your point that you are asserting that you have already attempted to have substantive discussions and proclaiming that those on the opposite side of the argument are lacking in abilities (or willingness) to accept your supposed "truthful" arguments.
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October 26, 2025, 03:56:56 AM


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buddy is holding us up over 110k for now which I can work with

Explanation
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 He needed to rest for an hour, it's not easy, but because it's the weekend, he's working a lot.

'Russia is now using bitcoin for foreign trade.
Chinese oligarchs use bitcoin to get money out of the country.
Meanwhile, Trump tariff announcements are used as cover for insiders to put in massive shorts on BTC.
'

https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1982270024527073404?t=QmXWPb8Q3dE_JLnNUWiZMA&s=19
These that are shorting now,  when they'll reverse your position,  maybe  they should  fall on  big trap... because these that are holding to up, can reverse your positions too, when they reverse yours.
  Both sides need to liquidate their positions at some point.
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October 26, 2025, 04:17:30 AM

that is a fair offer lets give it til Feb 2027 which is about 15 months.

 I figure that is long enough to see if an attack causing a huge mess will happen due to expansion to 100,000kb.

I know you could be correct and it is a non issue

although maybe I am right and caution would have been better.
The pick is more than fair and a honest one. I accept it. I will bookmark this post. Of course it is better that I am right about this in terms of consequences for the network, but let's wait and see.

What about you OutOfMemory? Do you want the same date or do you want more time?


If the Core side is proven to be right again, I hope that some of you will take that as a lesson to stop siding with the doomsday side in the future (regardless of the topic). The stories that Core is corrupt, that Gloria fucked her way to the top, that OP_RETURN will be the end of us all are easy to believe because of narrative bias. They are all appealing and juicy stories. The opposite of this is "everything is fine, nothing is wrong"; it is just very boring. Most people tend to be biased towards some juicy stories, even if they consider themselves "independent thinkers" (which is not possible for those that easily fall under this spell).

thank you and lets stop fighting over it .. It is done while I would have preferred a multi step approach to get there maybe  this is better.

Worst case scenario it sucks and there is a reset backwards to a lower number.

How do you guys plan to decide who is right/wrong over this "issue"?

I mean... the difference will probably be subtle in its impact...

It's not that it opens new ways to spam the blockchain but it certainly makes it a bit more direct (no need for out-of-band "tricks") and also probably a bit cheaper because of the increased mining pool competition for those over-the-previous-soft-limit tx's. Also probably some overall increase in the "standard" mempool size as now those tx's will propagate over all (assuming no tinkering with datacarriersize) core30 nodes.

We are talking about, maybe, a 5-25% (max) impact in those metrics... which is not directly distinguishable from previous "volatility" and/or other external events that happen "naturally" over time.

So, again... how do you guys plan to evaluate who was right? Based on which metrics and what amount of "acceptable deviation"... against which "previous baseline"?

If this were a bet I would find extremely hard how to declare a "winner".





Btc is enough risk for me.

How to determine if it was rushed and fucked things up.

Or that the 1250x increase caused no issues at all.

I will worry about this as time moves on.

To me if an accidental fork happens before 15 months I would be correct.

Anyone remember the accidental major fork about 10 years ago.

About 40% of the hash went to the wrong fork.

Back in the day that was not a lot of cash value it would be now.
A dump of all of ICE’s names and home addresses .

Since there is 1250x the space a classified dump as mentioned above would be an example.

If there are small shifts in the system no one really gives a fuck.

Basically I see around 2 trillion in value as I type.

A legal case and a price dump would qualify.

But no major court cases the developers would be fine.


Not to say this major change working and embolden the developers to another major change counts even if the next change causes a major issue.

Frankly I do not think it will fuck up. But I prefer a more gradual approach.
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October 26, 2025, 05:47:48 AM

Saylor predicts that Bitcoin can make it to 21$ million in next 21 years while BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said that in long run Bitcoin can rise to 1.6 - 2 million USD. 

Now it's up to us, how we plan our future Bitcoin journey. There are people who says that time to get massive gain from Bitcoin is gone but Saylor and Tom Lee are predicting that it's still the right time to accumulate Bitcoins.
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-2m-tom-lee-michael-140215916.html
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October 26, 2025, 06:03:00 AM

Insane Bitcoin drone show lights up the sky in Lugano Switzerland.

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October 26, 2025, 06:52:23 AM

Insane Bitcoin drone show lights up the sky in Lugano Switzerland.

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Spectacular!

It's amazing how so many drones are able to align their positions so accurately, even on animated images (roller coaster).
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Spectacular!

It's amazing how so many drones are able to align their positions so accurately. (although I did spot a few "dead pixels")



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Last edit: October 26, 2025, 01:28:42 PM by ESG
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... in the meantime, I'm waiting for the last few days of the month to see if Bitcoin will close below or above the opening of the month.

Why does it matter if bitcoin closes October higher or lower than it's price at the opening of the month?

To me, where bitcoin closes at the end of the month (as long as it is within 20% or so of the opening price), seems like a BIG "SO FUCKING WHAT?"  Sure, there might be some significance with BIG divergence, but mere 5% to 15% in either direction?  Not easy for me to see the significance.

...,seems like a BIG "SO FUCKING WHAT?
Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy =) =D  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy....

_Hi!  \y/
-...
_how like i said before, *the lattest time that btc close bellow of your openning price on october was
2014.>



- ...
... Oh yes, past price doesn't make future price, I have to agree.
-...
 -For me , this mean an strong resistance to the price  to keep growing....should come an new low...what this mean?, this mean that the odd  you  to  lose 'the BET' increase to 75%!
 but, instead close bellow, if close above of 14079, should be a good signal to new highs, and the odd  to  You  win, increases   to 75%!!! Sounds Good? seemsly...but. And also as I said a lot and a lot before, 116 could become an important resistance if it's not a support.... because the things are diferent now and etc... remember?
-...
  -My opinion on what can happen and not the odds?...According to recent events on the world stage, as well as market uncertainties, putting all this together, the market is locked in a war, I expect a lot of volatility on the last day of the month, and closing between 110~116.
 But the market always surprises us in the last few hours, perhaps, this week, little by little the volatility begins to increase and we will already have a sense of what the opening of November will be.

   .   The same way you bet on this uncertain bet, I bet myself, that I will get my prediction right, and my prediction is based on the feeling I have after balancing these factors that I mentioned above and a few more, and the result is that I feel that no matter how volatile it is in the last day, it will close above. I am 80% convinced of this, but some factors indicate that the price can close below and plummet and as the month goes on lose even 100k, And if it ends up closing above, this crab will continue to try to climb the quarries at the edge of the sea, and the waves hindering it from rising!   at the same time I will be very happy for having nailed., I'm an idiot who gets happy for anything !

{BIG "SO FUCKING WHAT?"}I Hope that i had answerade...?....  an least i tried...hehhe...

There are 5 days left for closing. so, the days ov october up today>



_____________________________________________________________________________

_  Maybe Satoshi maybe is , Steven Spielberg, because BTC looks like a Thriller film. Cheesy Grin Cheesy
 


 




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October 26, 2025, 08:09:14 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), AlcoHoDL (1), psycodad (1)

[edited out]
Let me know if you would rather me stop my series...  I would get it.  I do not think there is a LOT left... Wink

I doubt that you really need any of us to agree or not with your postings or their length, even though surely it could be the case that some members (regulars of this thread or not) might agree with you and some might disagree. .and even though I am inclined to think that sticking with some earlier version of core (before v 30) would be better then running knots, I understand the signaling aspect... and yeah, I find it a bit problematic for some of the Core supporting folks to be arguing not to run knots when there are not very many alternatives..

....and yeah on a personal level, I have been bothered more about the way that Core had implemented in such a seemingly rushed way and seeming to have had not really met any burden to establish why there was a rush to implement version 30, which to me, causes me to wonder if any changes can be put in Core if they are just seeming to update when there did not seem to be any meaningful legitimate reason to do so... but yeah, I am also likely a bit of a retard when it comes to following many of the technical arguments.. .. so up until now, I have not been chiming in very much on this particular update.

you to have decent fact based information from which to come to your own conclusions.
Complete bullshit. Most of your posts are misinformation and contain mostly lies. Correct information about the OP_RETURN situation can be found in other forum boards. It is most certainly not going to be posted by a retard in a independent thinker costume called cAPSLOCK. If he continues to keep this up then we can conclude he wants to join the transactions review board so that he can spend his day looking at CSAM together with luke-jr.  Smiley Perhaps this OP_RETURN situation shall provide an opportunity to identify pedophiles who have been hiding in their caves all this time.

You are devolving even worse. Are you trying to be purposeful in your denigration in order to derail the subject matter?  I am having difficulties seeing the point of being purposefully denigrating, even if you might have had identified some areas that cAPSLOCK is wrong, I doubt that they rise to the level of purposefully uninformative.. .

Even if many of us might not be in the weeds of technical experts (especially in this particular thread  - even though some guys are more technical than others, for sure) or even specifically informed about some of the technicalities of the version 30 trade offs, many of us are not so dumb as to not be able to recognize differences between good and bad arguments...  especially if they are getting into unsubstantiated personal attacks.

Sometimes i toke myself to calm environment to reason how some people got information that makes them to speculate of Bitcoin price wrongly, And if someone rely on some information about Bitcoin price through social media, the person might slump and die, I think most of the social media influencers is given so many wrong analysis of Bitcoin why?
I want us to take a look of this speculation I came across in X today, to check if this man is making a point or is telling fallacy.

https://x.com/CaliCrypto/status/1981869168665530688?t=qXNZNkwoKYvxKCVz0aC0gA&s=19
Bitcoin price drives IBIT price, not the other way around, lol.
$100bil passive asset cannot drive the 2.2 tril underlying.
LOL.

EDIT: that said, who knows what random event may or may not happen in the future.
That means it's not sure  of what he just said, in other way rounds that means what he just said is under probabilities. That's the meaning of may or may not.

Currently, I have a hunch that bitcoin will never go below $80k ever again, and I am willing to enter into a 50/50 bet regarding such.

Sure there are probabilities bitcoin could go lower than $80k, and there are probabilities it could even go lower than $60k, yet the lower that you are expecting it to go, the lower the probabilities that it will make such a dip journey. but yeah, it is still possible to happen.

My bet that bitcoin will never go below $80k has been outstanding for a decent amount of time, probably decently longer than a month, yet surely so far no takers.

Do you want to give it a go, Riginac111?   You must be thinking greater than 50/50 odds that BTC will go below $80k if you are spouting out (and taking serious) those even lower numbers as if they had some kind of a fighting chance of happening.

Personally, I would be quite satisfied if there was a fork that was exactly the same software, but just retained a 160-bit opreturn limit, and retained the customization abilityfor the node runners.
uh that 'fork' is called Bitcoin Core! --  you can set the limit to whatever you want.  You always could at every point in time.
What was changed was the default value -- to reflect the reality of what major miners *already* changed it to, in order to avoid collateral harms.

There was a proposal that didn't make it configurable since that was the simplest thing to do, but once it was clear that some people wanted to change it it, that proposal was rejected in favor of an alternative that was configurable.
Perhaps you need to sit back and reflect and ask yourself why you feel like you are entitled to make demands about what other people choose to do with their own computers and time?

If you think dictating other peoples choices is important to you then maybe Bitcoin is just not for you.  It's not for everyone, apparently.

That is a little patronizing** Greg, especially since many of us have been in bitcoin for more than a decade.. and surely we are not going to just abandon bitcoin, even if some guys might choose to take a smaller allocation in bitcoin if they are worried about various aspects of the future of bitcoin or its stability or if there might be thoughts that upgrading changes in versions) is being done in ways that might be compromising the cornz.. since many of us likely realize that if changes are merely carried out by small groups (even if they are arguably "better," then perhaps some future changes might end up putting in nefarious features without the realization that such nefarious features are there or even concerns that bad actors could be influencing upgrades... which I think are some of the concerns about the latest version (version 30) being more about the process rather than the technical aspects of what is actually in the code or if the code is worse or better, but instead how can the code just be upgraded without some meaningful justification.  

**Note:I see that Hueristic already responded and used the word hypocrite, and maybe that is a bit more accurate, even if it does come off as a bit strong, even though he (Hueristic) did seem to explain what he meant by the use of such stronger language.

I am not one of those kinds of guys that necessarily wants to quit bitcoin yet or who is thinking about taking any kind of meaningful amounts of bitcoin off the table due to perceptions of what bitcoin might be becoming as compared to what I might have had thought what it is (whether erroneously had those thoughts or otherwise), even though surely I have been selling bitcoin on the way up since $250. .but mostly less than 5% for every doubling of the price.. . but that's just one of my own ways of dealing with potential uncertainties that might exist in regards to bitcoin having gone through nearly 9 doublings since it was $250 in 2015.

By the way, there are quite a few guys on this forum that tend to trust your judgement on various matters, yet there could be cases where we might consider that maybe you are wrong in regards to the extent to which some change, such as version 30, might have had gotten through by influences of bad actors and/or that the changes that were made were either not justified or they were rushed and put into bitcoin when they were not needed.  I am not claiming that I would know, even though surely some guys (including yours truly) become skeptical when we get senses that changes might be being made and/or rushed through.. so then some of us might get the sense that if the changes are not really urgent, then why is there an appearance that they are being rushed through.  Whether historical bitcoiners are technically correct or not in regards to the changes that are being made, there still can be anxiety in regards to whether the changes were justified and if the process for their getting adopted and accepted was sufficiently open and/or justifiable as being more necessary than not.. or whatever might be the standard for making such changes, when there seems to be so much vocal opposition and concerns about the changes being made and the justifications (if suffiicient?) for making them.
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