Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

I’ll buy some back if we enter a deep, depressing bear market but I just expected a lot better this year, you know.

I have accepted diminishing returns as adoption increases. That’s to be expected, we are not at a $100M market-cap any more. This year has been particularly disappointing though.

Bitcoin retired me before age 40. I am so grateful for how life turned out for me. Would I see Bitcoin as the best asset to invest in right now, if I was a newbie with <1BTC? I have to be honest, my answer is a strong no.

So personally, I am still heavily in Bitcoin, most of my net worth is in it. I would be looking elsewhere if I was a young guy without any Bitcoin though.

That is a big call but I can't blame you for saying it. Gold has been smashing Bitcoin for sometime now, stocks too, and it doesn't seem like that is changing.

Are people selling Bitcoin for gold, probably. One thing is certain though, nations are buying gold, not Bitcoin. I have gold but like you I am mostly in Bitcoin, I should probably be upping my gold and lowering my Bitcoin allocation.

A brand new person to investing would be retarded to invest in gold rather than bitcoin... but hey fantasize as you like.

Bitcoin is still in the ballpark of 1,000x or more better than gold, yet it is only about 1/9th the price.

It might take a bit of time for the market to work out these pricing matters, yet we should understand the trend, instead of getting distracted by current blips... but yeah, of course, do what you like.  Even things that are not so smart...

By the way, a brand new person to investing should invest no more than 10% the size of his bitcoin size into gold, and that might even be too much, but yeah of course, each of us can choose our allocations and see how things play out.

You have to remember that LFC has more than 10 years in bitcoin, and he likely did most of his BTC accumulation in the first cycle and perhaps bleeding a bit into his second cycle that also involved his spoiling himself by selling and then buying back cheaper..

The idea of selling his Bitcoin too early is not good enough and I don't see that as true hodler if the goal is to be buying an selling when the price of Bitcoin goes down. Those that are true holders do not panic when price go down and when price up up since the goal is to hold for a certain period of time which being bothered on what next happens in the market.

So he does not really consider himself an accumulator anymore except buying on dips, even though maybe it would do him some good to go back to his roots, and buy some on the dip, rather than whining about them.. but at the same time, he may have lost his way, too.

 When a holder considered buying the dip has a way to make money from the market, they should always have another though about that because people are doing so many things to help themselves but the idea is not good enough. Buying the dip is cool but taking that as a habit is frankly seen as too weak approach to the holding sense.

For sure, with beginners, anyone in their first whole bitcoin cycle, they should not get distracted by what longer term bitcoiners are doing, since they likely need to just concentrate on buying for at least a whole cycle, and perhaps even a couple of cycles before they might start get to the point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin, which is quite likely LFC's current status.. (or at least how he thinks about his current status related to bitcoin, even though he is proclaiming disappointment, which many of us longer term bitcoins are likely somewhat bothered by his saying those kinds of things - even though sure, he has a right to say what he likes and feel what he feels.

The concentration should be on buying and accumulate and the idea of the old Bitcoiners selling part of their holdings should not be a distraction. It only takes those that understand the market to stay firm and turn a deaf hear to all the noises in the market by whales and big portfolios talking about taking profits.

You are not necessarily wrong in anything you say, and guys can choose how to allocate and/or how to reallocate.  LFC is complaining about bitcoins performance, but he is not really selling it and he even said that he would plan to buy more if it dips a lot, so he is mostly complaining without rage quitting (at least not so far).

He probably is also wrong about better investments out there, even though surely anyone who is just getting started investing can figure out his allocation into bitcoin as compared to any other assets that he might consider as sufficient competitors to bitcoin. .and some folks consider diversifying, yet personally, I think that it may well be better to start out just with bitcoin and cash and then perhaps after building the bitcoin portion to a certain level (such as a year of expenses) then maybe at that point diversifying might make sense, but yeah, everyone can figure out these kinds of allocation priorities.. and the extent to which they even have a lot of money (discretionary income) to diversify (dilute) into other assets rather than focusing until their wealth is built up to a certain extent prior to diversifying.

[BitHodlers]

The lines are pretty clear I must say the problem is more that there was weaponized misinformation.

The OP return limit does nothing and most miners already bypass it. The change with Bitcoin Core doesn't really change anything. Policy rules are rules that Core can change arbitrarily. This would be different if we were talking about a consensus rule which is not the case here.

That was part of the issue in 2017 too..

The question was not so much about whether increasing the block size might be a good thing, but instead about governance and how changes are made.

So in this most recent case, the substantive change might not matter as much as going down the road of just willy-nilly changing things.. which can cause issues in terms of bad influences coming to bitcoin and then forcing a change.  A lot of folks are so far choosing NOT to run core version 30.. . .yet we will still have to see how it plays out, since not running core version 30 might not be a great option, either.. .and the battle and/or discussion is not necessarily over, yet.

But policy rules are not related to governance. The policy rules are subjective rules that are implemented by developers of Bitcoin Core. They can change them up and down at will. Consensus rules is where you need governance to make changes. Why should random people get to have an opinion on engineering changes that don't affect consensus? What makes them think they can have an opinion on it?

but I don’t think I’ve ever been as disappointed in Bitcoin as I currently am. Utterly pathetic 2025 so far.

I thought 150k was close to guaranteed but it looks miles off right now.

Less than 50% away is miles off? I think this flash crash has got you emotionally down. This is nothing. I expect better from long holders.

Lot's of negativity even from seasoned people, not too worried to be honest, expect to see higher prices soon(ish)

My thoughts are the same. We are at most 2 good weeks away from $150k unless people consider a 5% increase in 7 days a good week. 

[Lucius]

~snip~

[edited out]

I will be happy if we are over 120k on Jan 1.  yeah 130 or 150 or 200 would be nicer
I can not cash in large amounts this year due to tax issues so I have to wait tll Jan 1 or later.

I need to cash at least 35k in coin next year to cover expenses.
And the extra income will hurt me  tax wise if I do that this year.

You feeling lucky, punk?

I had to throw that in there.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Degenerate gambler or this guy knows something?

Powell speaks later today, could give us a clue about if the Fed is going to cut rates later this month. Feels like we are close to knowing if this bull run is over.


@crypto_chatter1
🚨 JUST IN: SOMETHING IS HAPPENING

The insider whale now upped his $BTC short to $498M.

This is the same guy who shorted just before Trump's speech.

Is there something he knows that we don't?

https://x.com/crypto_chatter1/status/1977999815737839921


Please God let Powell be dovish later. We need something to save this bull run.

Yes, he makes his money manipulating people, so basically that is all you need to know.

[ivomm]

If I had enough bitcoins, I would probably sell some for gold right now. This seems the best advice. But... What if the logic is wrong? If learned something during all these years is that when the chances for an explosive bull run are almost 0, she surprises everybody. I have the (SOMA) feeling that this is the case, and by the end of the year she will touch 200K. No arguments for that, no logic, nothing. Hence not a financial advice.  

[d_eddie]

If I had enough bitcoins, I would probably sell some for gold right now.

Boooooooo!
 

when the chances for an explosive bull run are almost 0, she surprises everybody.
(SOMA) feeling
end of the year she will touch 200K
No arguments for that, no logic

I feel the same and wouldn't mind knowing what someone's plums are saying.

[Hueristic]

Elon Musk said this about Bitcoin a few hours ago on X.

“That is why Bitcoin is based on energy: you can issue fake fiat currency, and every government in history has done so, but it is impossible to fake energy.”

Historically it has been bad when Elon mentions a cryptocurrency. Maybe this time will be different.

He should know, he's collected more of that fake money than anyone in history.

[JimboToronto]

This is what happens when the government starts getting involved.

Which government, or do you mean any government?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

If I had enough bitcoins, I would probably sell some for gold right now. This seems the best advice. But... What if the logic is wrong? If learned something during all these years is that when the chances for an explosive bull run are almost 0, she surprises everybody. I have the (SOMA) feeling that this is the case, and by the end of the year she will touch 200K. No arguments for that, no logic, nothing. Hence not a financial advice.  

I wouldn’t buy Gold now. In hindsight it’d have been a great idea to buy earlier this year but I’d be too worried that it looks very toppy here now. How much more gas is left in the tank on its ascent? It looks really over bought right now.

I sold enough Bitcoin to comfortably get me through six years now. I’d like to sell a lot more but I can’t at this price so I’ll just sit with my bags and pray.

[goldkingcoiner]

Degenerate gambler or this guy knows something

Gambler with a lot of money, basically.

x
This is the best example of decentralization. No bank account, no paperwork, just a smart phone, their freedom has been revealed. It is not limited to just one and a half investors, but has become open to everyone and is being used freely.

I could go for some corn while buying my corn. This is genius.

If I had enough bitcoins, I would probably sell some for gold right now. This seems the best advice. But... What if the logic is wrong? If learned something during all these years is that when the chances for an explosive bull run are almost 0, she surprises everybody. I have the (SOMA) feeling that this is the case, and by the end of the year she will touch 200K. No arguments for that, no logic, nothing. Hence not a financial advice.  

I am not a huge fan of gold even though I have gold in my name. I would rather keep my money in Bitcoin.

Everytime people find a new gigantic gold reserve somewhere, gold holders get screwed out of their money by deprecating potential value over time. Bitcooin's potential is hard-wired to keep rising steadily

[Franklyn-wood]

If I had enough bitcoins, I would probably sell some for gold right now. This seems the best advice.

Imagine a newbie saw this and rush and sell his BTC to buy gold and made 0.1 profit and the price of gold suddenly falls. Hahaha, that will be a life changing mistake from being on the right track to falling away because of market volatility. Gold is too volatile and anything can happen, you could see the price up today and down tomorrow and it's a sign of randomness in movement.

If learned something during all these years is that when the chances for an explosive bull run are almost 0, she surprises everybody. I have the (SOMA) feeling that this is the case, and by the end of the year she will touch 200K. No arguments for that, no logic, nothing. Hence not a financial advice.

The price of Bitcoin is going to hit $200k(very certain) and this is not a speculative calculation from random influencers.
This current bull is going to shock the entire market because their are several players in the market now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Degenerate gambler or this guy knows something?

Powell speaks later today, could give us a clue about if the Fed is going to cut rates later this month. Feels like we are close to knowing if this bull run is over.


@crypto_chatter1
🚨 JUST IN: SOMETHING IS HAPPENING

The insider whale now upped his $BTC short to $498M.

This is the same guy who shorted just before Trump's speech.

Is there something he knows that we don't?

https://x.com/crypto_chatter1/status/1977999815737839921


Please God let Powell be dovish later. We need something to save this bull run.

So the government has tamed BTC.

And sideways it is.

Well during all of Clinton's 2 terms and a year Or so of Bush's term gold stayed in a 200-400 dollar slot. It is now 4000

I have said sideways a lot the last 10 months.
Dec 2024 The high was 106+
Oct 2025 The today's price is 111

Seems sideways to me.

So I am still in the running for sideways and I am still in the running for the end of the 4 year cycle.

[asUHWEceyc]

Gotta love widespread despair at one hundred and ten thousand dollars per Bit Coin

Also: "sell btc for gold's remarkable performance!!1" L.O.L.

[Emeraldo]

Gotta love widespread despair at one hundred and ten thousand dollars per Bit Coin

Also: "sell btc for gold's remarkable performance!!1" L.O.L.

Sell Bitcoin to buy gold? What inspired this thought?
Okay sell your physical gold and buy BTC or sell your BTC to buy gold. The decision is in your hand.

[d_eddie]

Everytime people find a new gigantic gold reserve somewhere, gold holders get screwed out of their money by deprecating potential value over time.

There are several ways to get screwed with gold (some more violent than others).

[asUHWEceyc]

Gotta love widespread despair at one hundred and ten thousand dollars per Bit Coin

Also: "sell btc for gold's remarkable performance!!1" L.O.L.

Sell Bitcoin to buy gold? What inspired this thought?
Okay sell your physical gold and buy BTC or sell your BTC to buy gold. The decision is in your hand.

Select all of the squares containing a fire hydrant. When there are none left, click Verify.

[ivomm]

If I had enough bitcoins, I would probably sell some for gold right now. This seems the best advice. But... What if the logic is wrong? If learned something during all these years is that when the chances for an explosive bull run are almost 0, she surprises everybody. I have the (SOMA) feeling that this is the case, and by the end of the year she will touch 200K. No arguments for that, no logic, nothing. Hence not a financial advice.  

I wouldn’t buy Gold now. In hindsight it’d have been a great idea to buy earlier this year but I’d be too worried that it looks very toppy here now. How much more gas is left in the tank on its ascent? It looks really over bought right now.

I sold enough Bitcoin to comfortably get me through six years now. I’d like to sell a lot more but I can’t at this price so I’ll just sit with my bags and pray.

What I meant is if I had 1000BTC, I would sell like 10-20BTC for gold. But not for quick profit. More like longterm diversification for my heirs just in case. I'm perfectly aware that gold can crash 40% from the ATH and stay there for over 10 years. Thus it make sense to plan for 15+ years.