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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26912766 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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November 04, 2025, 03:57:53 AM

[edited out]
 .Of course it's not something to brag about, but do you think I get happy being called a bot?

You want to argue about it?

    I've even said here, that my intention here is not to win anything. not even wanting to be a shakspeare.
     .If on the one hand I thought that somehow you were trying to help, I can say that I am starting to see a little differently and it seems that is not what I thought.

I have no obligation to help you.

Perhaps you can try to help yourself, and I doubt that I am not the ONLY one feeling a certain high level of suffer from your largely babbling posts.

      For a long time I read here without wanting to participate, to avoid this confusion that came to my side. Which in my point of view, seems to be very purposeful.

    So, being aware of the rules of the topic, I thought, it doesn't hurt me to do what is written in the description:
"
~  Whenever there is a significant change in market depth, please update this thread with a new depth chart, and a good price chart with some TA is also welcome, feel free to comment on these if you have something to worth contributing, ( if your post is not at all TA it will be deleted )

Posting guild lines:
 Please lets keep this thread clean. ( I will be removing any off topic posts )
 Do not post random comments on this thread, unless it is directly related to the last wall update (ex. The 20K ask was was NOT sold into, it was removed after being tested)
 When you post a chart please use bitcoincharts.com, mtgoxlive.com, btccharts.com or bitcoinity.com (This information may be out of date)

Recommendations
Do: Post ''TA'' and ''news'' items related to Bitcoin, engage in friendly debate and banter, ignore people who offend or insult you
Don't: Be a drama queen
..~  I promise to not delete post simply because i do not agree with the bearish TA.
thank you for your input!
...~  
the rules of this thread is an attempt to keep this thread from having +1000 post when price is doing big moves, and instead relay important indicators during critical moments.
also when the market is more calm we can expect to see wall posts and TA price charts, back to back without any relevant chatting, making easier to analyze.
there are other threads where speculators can discuss their sentiment, just not here...
.........~  ;;;
is also welcome here.

just don't be posting about your "FEELINGS" and you won't get delete.  Tongue

"Disclaimer: All posts in this thread are for entertainment purposes only." Nothing in this thread should be construed as financial advice.
*note: This thread was started by adamstgBit. I took over after he went AWOL.
"
So it seems to me to be very wrong to be following this guide.

Try to use common sense, and perhaps post more like a person rather than copying and pasting a bunch of bullshit... .. but hey in the end, you can do what you like.. .. even choose to post a bunch of drivel.. to the extent that you might be doing it on purpose, I cannot be sure.  If you are just quasi-retarded, then try to post less with better substance when you do post.

.I can  tell   you  and   guarantee  you, that I  am   an  organic user,  who   has  no ambition  to   be  a shakespeare,  to   raise  my ranking,  as   much as  in   activities,  as far  as   this  merit   business,  I guarantee  that   if  there was  a   button  here where  I   could  block   the  receipt of  merit,   this  button   would be  on  .
.
  .  When I come to write here, I come of my own free will, with no intention of causing engagement, without any ambition, and or publicizing something of mine, I could put the link to my TV', and call for visualization for my nonsense there, but I have no interest in things like that.

There is still a lot of clutter in your posts, to that you are a human (organic user?  perhaps you are a cat?)

So, if this type of user like me,  do not   is welcome here in the forum, and yes is welcome ambitious users who only intend to raise the rank, to be able to participate in subscription campaigns and be forced to write every day, random things, in random topics, redundant combposts that do not reach any, then really I begin to see that this place is really not for me,. and the only thing I have to do here, is, only when I need a technical information, open a topic and or go to a topic from which I will find the solution to my problem? Coming here only in the interest of solving my problems...? this is and a point that I'm always reflecting..

Nothing wrong with coming the forum to attempt to use it to your advantage.

...
  , Now, I could be wrong, but the way that you explained what I'm doing, I understood well, but it also came to my mind, that you're not so much the guy I thought you were, because somehow besides making me understand why you insult me bot,

There are a lot of bots in recent times, and a lot of drivel in your posts... and sure, if you are not a bot, then you are posting a lot of lame stuff.. . .including your response (this one that I am responding to).

I also understood that somehow, you wanted to get rid of me....

The forum and even this thread has a high tolerance - even for a lot of shitty posts and posts that tend towards non-substantive nonsense like yours.

I am a little surprised that your profile has not been tagged yet.. so sometimes posters who might not be breaking forum rules, their profile will still end up getting tagged for the pattern of drivel that is coming from them.. Sometimes the tags are red and other times they are neutral.

like a way for you to feel superior by demeaning the next one, even if you're not wrong.  

There are different members on the forum and in this thread, and some have more tolerance and some have less tolerance.. some members just choose to ignore the drivel, since it can be time consuming to engage, especially if the members might not really be trying to improve.. which may or may not be applicable in your case.

And so,  maybe  I'm really   wrong  with my   impression  that you're  a   guy  who was  somehow   trying  to   help,  both me  and   others...

You think that I have an obligation to support streams of nonsensical posts?  and members who I question their intention or if such members are actually even attempting to produce good (or helpful) content in their posts?

Because, if  I   publish  a related  news,   and  make a  short   comment,  I have  no   opinion,  if   I  publish a  news   that  I find   interesting,  and give  my opinion  a   little  higher, I  am   trying  to   be  a Shakespeare,  typing random  keys   hoping  for a  coherent   result.... Damn,  I'm   a  bot and  I   didn't  know it!

There are a variety of threads, not just this one.

I just glanced at your forum registration date, and yeah, I am surprised that you have been registered here since September 2018, and you still post so crappily.. and yeah, I see you have quite a few posts in the gambling sections, so you have posted in other areas of the forum, so there could be some threads where your topic is more fitting.  I don't really feel like reviewing your post history in detail since my attention was brought to your posts mostly based on your recent crappy posts in this thread and not really based on whatever your earlier forum interactions might have had been.

.Even though I don't come here to annoy anyone, without the intention of offending anyone, without wanting to troll anyone, start talking, I don't do that, And when I  come  to   respond when I'm quoted, and or make a random comment, I can be off topic,  and   if  that's the reason, I believe the moderator should come and delete what I said wrong and then I be aware of what I'm doing wrong.

Well, it is true that this thread has the most tolerance for off-topicness, as long as you are not pumping shitcoins or breaking some forum rules.

But  that   hasn't  happened yet,  and   I  personally   would  like it  to   happen.  I also tried to see if my posts here are considered spam, I didn't find anything that relates.  

Sure it could be that your crap and your drivel has not yet risen to a high enough (or would it be low enough?) level in order to be considered spam.

Also, I leave here the list that Mprep made, Well, I went to reread it, to try to understand if I'm doing something wrong, but I didn't find anything>>>         https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=703657.0    
.   So I don't know if in fact, if you're unleashing me to write here, or for some reason, a kind of persecution, whatever... but I find it very strange that you approach me... and it makes me very thinking about avoiding wasting this time.

I cannot recall claiming that you broke any forum rules.  I just recall that so far I had accused you of being a bot and/or posting a lot of meaningless nonsense. 

So far I see that you have been posting a lot of meaningless drivel to try to argue that you have good intentions or whatever might be the point(s) that you are wanting to make in your response.   

And, yeah, some members get mad at me when I engage with members who seem to have shitty posts... So it does not necessarily help me to waste time interacting with you, when your arguments are not even very good.

Maybe that's your goal, maybe you're an expert in it, and that would be your role. i dont know...
 So, in conclusion, yes, if there really is a topic here that should be respected, I realized that most or 100% of the times I disrespected it, it was exactly when interacting with the quotes in general, as an example, this type of whining post that I'm making here now and ending here.

So?  that means you are going to try harder or what?

______________________________________________________________________......Acc ording to the selling volume in the weekly, the BTC USD pair tends to look for the 50-week average at 103k, trying to find support, and failing, the next support near 88k in two months, and if it does not return to the 50-week average, the tendency is for it to look for the average of 180 weeks in 56k at the moment, which can take about a maximum of 6 months if the loss of the 50-week average is lost.


It can be difficult to know where the BTC price might go.. and I am thinking that if we spent a week or longer below $95k, I might start to feel worried about whether we are still in a bull market.

Can you guys stop being depressive all the time? This is not what I signed up for. Be better.
bruh
its bitcoin.. you signed up for an grand experiment

and fun is where you find it

I don't really like dips, but they are way more tolerable and fun when there had been both financial and psychological preparation for them.

So many of us longer term bitcoiners get lulled into cycle theory and we might not always realize how we might be becoming disappointed because the price is not seeming to conform with our expectations.. and it seems to happen in a different way each cycle, and sure maybe this time the top ends up being in. 

There is some need to prepare for that possibility, even though I still personally think that the odds are less than 50% that the top is in .. but yeah.. we don't really know until events play out, and even if I were to be more optimistic and assign something like 65% odds that the top is not in (which seems a bit overly optimistic), even in that overly optimistic scenario there still would be 35% odds that the top is not in.. so it is not like it is a done deal, and right now we are still bouncing between right around 11% (at $112k) and 17% (at $105k) from the top.. so our level of correction is note even egregiously high... at least not yet.
 
We have been through much worse than this, and it never really feels good to go through large corrections, and surely many of us are much more excited and willing to throw around jokes when the BTC price is going up rather than when it is going down.

Worst bull-run ever.

Be a little more original.    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

That line has already been used. 

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

[edited out]
I am having tons of fun right now.

Looking for some solid dip say 90k

You really think?

I hope not, even though surely once we get below $100k (if we were to get there) my buy orders start to become spaced out in $3k increments.

I am not denying that we could go there, and especially end up spiking there, since currently there does seem to be some downity momentum.. so there are always ways to try to squeeze some more HODLers out of their coins.

And that's why I am buying dippppp!
you know like that song 'don't fear the reaper'

my new lyrics are 'don't fear the dipper'
That's the spirit! Someone should write that version of the song.

bruh
its bitcoin.. you signed up for an grand experiment

and fun is where you find it
It was more fun when people were positive and dreaming of moons and mars when the price was $100. Now they are depressive at a price of $100k. Absolutely crazy..  Cheesy

You are likely reading too much into sentiment, and sure you are not the ONLY one who gets caught up on such a mostly lame metric.
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November 04, 2025, 04:49:10 AM

Worst bull-run ever.

you mean

Worst bull-run ever over?
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November 04, 2025, 06:01:15 AM


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November 04, 2025, 06:25:55 AM
Merited by goldkingcoiner (2), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Seems like 'someone' is trying to convince me that this cycle is over

It will take a few months until sentiment is bad enough. so we will probably go up in Q1 26.
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November 04, 2025, 06:34:34 AM
Last edit: November 04, 2025, 06:51:17 AM by OgNasty


If you like this dip, you're going to love the next 18 months!

As the market sits with its fingers crossed hoping that the government or index funds saves this rally, I tend to find myself being a little more realistic.  I don't think we see another new high this year.  I think Strategy doesn't get included into the S&P 500 on December 5th when the next rebalancing announcement is made and I think this leads to a massive selloff that continues at least through next Halloween.  I think buying in January of 2027 at a price around $60K is very possible.  I highly recommend people make sure they have enough saved to ensure they will not be forced to sell any Bitcoin over the next two years.

@OgNasty - Why are you being so fucking negative?

You're supposed to be a bold, tough HOLDING Bitcoiner!  Haha! What kind of bullshit negative talk is this coming from an OG here?   Huh

I said many months ago that I would turn bearish mid-September. This 4-year cycle is complete. Bitcoin has decoupled from M2. We’re down 20% already. Everyone is in complete denial. The economy is crumbling. The Fed injected over a hundred billion dollars this week to keep the banking sector functioning. Auto delinquencies are at all time highs. The housing market is the most unaffordable in history. Hold if you want. I’ll be bullish again in 2027. For now I have switched from wanting to buy the dips to wanting to sell the peaks.

For the record, nobody in this thread would be happier than me if Bitcoin shot up to a million a coin tomorrow. It just isn’t happening. I’m sorry.

Edit: I do hope I’m wrong and you are all right.
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November 04, 2025, 06:37:44 AM
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Dip basements build skyscraper.

Are you still waiting? .Foolish

Stay Cool.    HODL  .Bullish
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November 04, 2025, 07:01:13 AM


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November 04, 2025, 07:03:48 AM

Worst bull-run ever.

Indeed.

Bull market (if you can even call it that) is cooked. Not selling any more below $120,000 so I am likely done selling until 2028/29.

Four year cycle vindicated sadly.

Edit -

@JayJuanGee - Who was the other guy in addition to Mia Chloe, that I will be taking money from at the end of Q1 in 2026?
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November 04, 2025, 07:11:29 AM

Worst bull-run ever.

Indeed.

Bull market (if you can even call it that) is cooked. Not selling any more below $120,000 so I am likely done selling until 2028/29.

Four year cycle vindicated sadly.

Edit -

@JayJuanGee - Who was the other guy in addition to Mia Chloe, that I will be taking money from at the end of Q1 in 2026?
Well I probably lost it already buh I guess I'll just wait and see
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November 04, 2025, 07:21:12 AM

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Lol.
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November 04, 2025, 07:36:08 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitmover (1)

Of course, mixed feelings here.
On the downside: seeing all those blokes speaking nonsense about bull run is over, bear market for the next six months, comparing bitcoins to failing altcoins.
On the upside: more cheap satoshis.

On the downside: people calling a move to sub 100K as certain
On the upside: knowing bitcoin is going to do bitcoin things.
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November 04, 2025, 07:42:01 AM
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No need to panic for a manipulated dump from Blackrock and Binance.

Just a classic 20% cleansing.
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November 04, 2025, 08:01:18 AM

Its all red for now... don't know what it will be in the coming days, weeks etc

No one does... certainly not does claiming to know.

Just sell, buy, Hodl, sit it out... no other options.
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November 04, 2025, 08:25:14 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Paashaas (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Worst bull-run ever.
Indeed.
Bull market (if you can even call it that) is cooked. Not selling any more below $120,000 so I am likely done selling until 2028/29.

Four year cycle vindicated sadly.

Edit -@JayJuanGee - Who was the other guy in addition to Mia Chloe, that I will be taking money from at the end of Q1 in 2026?

Oh yeah, you are correct. I almost forgot.  There was Mia, and then a second one wanted to jump on the bandwagon...  

I had to look at your post history to see that it was Ambatman  (Here's a link).

[edited out]
Well I probably lost it already buh I guess I'll just wait and see

Don't give up so easy, Mia.  We got nearly 5 months remaining in the timeline for the bet.   A lot can happen in 5 months, and the fake outs in regards to the BTC price are strong for a reason... Strong fake outs, like this current grand dip, get's HODLers to depart with their coins and also contributes to some folks being too scared to buy more coins.. also wrecks the leveraged longs, too..

Sure, it is possible that LFC ends up winning the bet, even though I doubt that even our most recent price actions have either brought his odds higher than 50% or brought us out of the bull market.

Of course, if we are ultimately out of the bull market, then LFC would end up winning the bet because we would be more inclined for down than up and we would not make any more highs until the next bull market.. ..

So yeah... interesting times, but no need to lose spirit, yet.

I am likely not going to get worried unless we both go below $95k and spend more than a week below $95k.. and that might not even be enough to get overly worried... but yeah a lot is possible to happen in the coming nearly 5 months.. keep the spirits up and maybe make sure that you buy (and secure) an extra 0.001 BTC, just in case.

Of course, mixed feelings here.
On the downside: seeing all those blokes speaking nonsense about bull run is over, bear market for the next six months, comparing bitcoins to failing altcoins.
On the upside: more cheap satoshis.

On the downside: people calling a move to sub 100K as certain
On the upside: knowing bitcoin is going to do bitcoin things.

Surely momentum is a bitch and it can be aggravating going through these corrections.. and yeah, hoping that it is merely a correction and not a bear market and surely other variations too.. .and we also know that some of the bigger players are just salivating in regards to getting coins off of retail.

Its all red for now... don't know what it will be in the coming days, weeks etc

No one does... certainly not does claiming to know.

Just sell, buy, Hodl, sit it out... no other options.

From my point of view, during downity periods, selling does not seem like a good option, unless you had already done it at some point above $115k-ish..or you have some system that you are selling on the way up and not selling on the way down.

I do appreciate that various shitcoins seem to be dumping harder than bitcoin, but yeah, it sometimes can be difficult to get our bearings when the price is dumping so much... My solution had always been buying on the way down, yet even I can frequently be frustrated to have so many buys and so it seems that it takes a long time to dig back out of such a hole, even in the better case scenarios it can sometimes be grueling to work our way back out of the negative (or the red period).
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November 04, 2025, 08:28:07 AM


If you like this dip, you're going to love the next 18 months!

As the market sits with its fingers crossed hoping that the government or index funds saves this rally, I tend to find myself being a little more realistic.  I don't think we see another new high this year.  I think Strategy doesn't get included into the S&P 500 on December 5th when the next rebalancing announcement is made and I think this leads to a massive selloff that continues at least through next Halloween.  I think buying in January of 2027 at a price around $60K is very possible.  I highly recommend people make sure they have enough saved to ensure they will not be forced to sell any Bitcoin over the next two years.

@OgNasty - Why are you being so fucking negative?

You're supposed to be a bold, tough HOLDING Bitcoiner!  Haha! What kind of bullshit negative talk is this coming from an OG here?   Huh

I said many months ago that I would turn bearish mid-September. This 4-year cycle is complete. Bitcoin has decoupled from M2. We’re down 20% already. Everyone is in complete denial. The economy is crumbling. The Fed injected over a hundred billion dollars this week to keep the banking sector functioning. Auto delinquencies are at all time highs. The housing market is the most unaffordable in history. Hold if you want. I’ll be bullish again in 2027. For now I have switched from wanting to buy the dips to wanting to sell the peaks.

For the record, nobody in this thread would be happier than me if Bitcoin shot up to a million a coin tomorrow. It just isn’t happening. I’m sorry.

Edit: I do hope I’m wrong and you are all right.

I have my doubts if cycle theory is still working. This time has already been too different...



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November 04, 2025, 08:30:09 AM

Worst bull-run ever.

Indeed.

Bull market (if you can even call it that) is cooked. Not selling any more below $120,000 so I am likely done selling until 2028/29.

Four year cycle vindicated sadly.

Edit -

@JayJuanGee - Who was the other guy in addition to Mia Chloe, that I will be taking money from at the end of Q1 in 2026?

yep that's what the majority will think... I hope the majority gets fucked like always
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November 04, 2025, 08:34:24 AM
Merited by Gachapin (1)

Just sell, buy, Hodl, sit it out... no other options.
Given my track record, when I sell something the bottom is in and it goes up again. I just sold a small amount as a sacrifice. You can thank me later Tongue
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