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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26905294 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Przemax
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November 05, 2025, 04:28:50 AM

Quote
Imagine if you had started to buy bitcoin for $10 per week since the date of your registration, you might have had invested around $5k by now and accumulated around 1.5 BTC.. so even if you would not be rich, you would still have some concrete ideas in regards what it is like to accumulate and HODL bitcoin.

I was a hodler but when I was a succesful hodler I "forgot" about my investments to sell them later. And yes those were the numbers roughly. You are good. And I was a hodler since 2014.
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November 05, 2025, 04:37:47 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Hmm The Italians had a bad time tonight.

Mikie  Sherrill crushed Jack Ciattarelli. 56% to 43%

And Zoran Mamdani smashed Andrew Coumo. 48 to 41% with Curtis Sliwa getting 8%

Here's the thing. The economically conservative types are all projecting that M. will wreck New York like all socialists and communists wreck. But that's different when you're talking about someone that controls one area.

He will be made to look like a genius, but all of the funds that cause things to seem like they're flourishing will be sucked out of the areas of the United States that produce.

It'll be a good magic trick though.

Damn it, I said I was going to hibernate and then the great giant price drop suck me back in and now I'm talking about NYC politics.


It will be a very interesting time and show to watch.

Looking at him calling out trump right now.


You ever watch trump promote wrestling back in the day?


this will be trump vs mamdani

seems like it should be quite a show.
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November 05, 2025, 05:01:13 AM


Explanation
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November 05, 2025, 05:06:37 AM
Last edit: November 05, 2025, 06:26:35 PM by JayJuanGee
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You have been added to the positive Nancy tabulation and compilings.

Of course.

TROLL-POWER UNITES!!!!!!!!!

How are you going to buy more Bitcoin if you don't tighten the budget? Might as well starve to buy more BTC.
Or is that somehow unreasonable?   Tongue
I would imagine that some guys sell on a regular basis based on price and/or based on time, so there are likely ways to buy back on dips and also frequently there will be other sources of income, once a guy gets to a status of having enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin. .so then the price might not be a major factor, even though there likely is some tailoring buys and sells around broader cycle kinds of ideas in terms of considering is the BTC price generally UP, DOWN or FLAT.

Am I being too general?

I think that my point is that there is a difference if a guy mostly has gotten through his accumulation phase, so there would be less emphasis on accumulation.. except maybe on dips and/or if some extra bitcoin might have had been sold (to generate cash) on rips.. and sure accounting for any other income sources that might be part of the picture.

Surely some guys might not be sure if they have enough bitcoin or more than  enough bitcoin, so they might not be sure if they are mostly through their bitcoin accumulation phase yet or not.

I understand that you may or may not have reached a status of overaccumulation, since your forum registration date is August 2017... so yeah, we have to go somewhat based on our own timeline and how much corn we might have had been able to accumulate and then how we might have had managed our maintenance of it in the event that we might be able to transition into sustainable withdrawal of one form or another.
Is there such a thing as overaccumulation of Bitcoin for a Bitcoiner?

It is more about passion and dedication than it is about being wealthy enough or having achieved some sort of a goal with Bitcoin. The game is clear to everyone: There are a limited amount of sats in this world. Grab them while they're cheap.

I have given plenty of examples in the past, and there are a variety of ways to measure overaccumulation status (and getting there), and likely our own 9 individual factors may well have an effect on how any of us would conclude getting to overaccumulation status.. yet at the same time, it merely could be age, health and past standard of living factors that could affect such conclusion..

It seems a bit presumptive of you (and others who come to the same conclusion) that no matter what people are going to want more and more and more.  I cannot agree with such a presumption, even though I recognize and appreciate that really young people might be able to expand more in terms of their standard of living expectations as compared with older people.

In order to rebutt your assertion in which you proclaim that no one can reach overaccumulation status, I really would only need to provide one example in which the information could be extracted or some variation of the information could be extracted in order to show that your assertion is wrong.

Here's the hypothetical:**

Let's say that a person had come into bitcoin around the beginning of 2016, so right now, this person would be around 10 years in bitcoin...

And maybe in 2016, this hypothetical was in his mid 30s, and he had already spent 10 years investing at the time that he got started in bitcoin, so between 2006 and 2016 he had an income of between $25k and $35k, and so during that time his investment portfolio had gotten up to about $50k because he had invested around $30k and the portfolio had gained in value.. and maybe he had been investing between $50 and $100 per week, so when he came to bitcoin in 2016, he already had an investment habit of $100 per week and he had and investment portfolio of $50k (including learning how to manage his cash and to maintain a system that he had back up funds).

So in 2016, when he came to bitcoin, he decided that he would frontload (reallocate) into bitcoin to put $15k of his already existing investment portfolio into bitcoin between January 2016 and June 2016, which would have had been $555 per week for 26 weeks, and so he would have had invested $15k and accumulated right around 33.5 BTC for that quantity invested.

Thereafter, from July 2016 until present, he would have had continued investing into bitcoin at $150 per week, which would have had resulted in nearly another $70k invested until now and therefore right around another 14 BTC accumulated.  

In the beginning of 2016, he was making $35k per year, and now he makes $50k per year, so he figured that he would be willing to quit his job as long as his bitcoin could support himself at a minimum of $80k per year with a 7% raise each year.

In essence right now this hypothetical guy holds right around 47.5 BTC with around $85k invested, and you are going to try to proclaim that at some point, he would not have had concluded that he has enough and/or more than enough bitcoin to support his aspirations to have a passive income of $80k per year with a 7% increase each year?

Right now, his 47.5 BTC could support an income of about $260k per year forever and ever and ever with an increase of income of 7% per year forever and ever and ever, and so it seems to me at some point earlier this hypothetical guy would have had figured out that he has enough or more than enough bitcoin.  

Right now this hypothetical guy is about 45 years old, and it seems to me to serve as a pretty clear example of a person who had accumulated enough or more than enough bitcoin.  Furthermore, variations the example that I gave could achieve similar result of a conclusion of a guy who would have had accumulated enough and/or more than enough bitcoin in order to support his aspiration and more than his aspirations.

It seems to me that guys who set goals for themselves about wanting more and more and more are being unrealistic and/or creating unnecessary and unrealistic goals for themselves that are not necessary to achieve, even though sure people can do whatever they like, even dumb shit in which they are no longer seeking financial freedom but instead perhaps wanting to just show off and creating higher and higher and higher goals without being able to satisfy themselves due to psychological problems rather than dealing with reality.  

Sure, I am not proclaiming that guys do not set unrealistic and ever unreachable goals in terms of what they believe that they want to always be higher and higher, but it seems to me that in those kinds of cases, such guys are making their goals impossible to reach since they are setting goals that they will never be able to reach... instead of attempting to be more realistic and reasonable in terms of how they might be both happy and financially sound without having to feel like they have to compete with Elon Musk or some other fictional character and fictionally high standard that might not be even within what they really want in terms of their own past standard of living that they might want to improve within reason but not in unlimited ways.. perhaps double or triple what they had been accustomed rather than 100x (or infinity of) what the standard of living that they had been accustomed.

But you can do and believe what you like in terms of what you believe to be the non-existence of overaccumulation status, if you are wanting to impose those kinds of never attainable standards upon yourself and/or you think that "everyone" has those kinds of standards, when they likely do not.

**Edited aspects of my above hypothetical person and the accompanying comments about such hypothetical person being able to reach (and exceed) overaccumulation status.

Huge $113 Billion volume in 24 hours  Shocked
Perhaps movements of coins from weaker hands to stronger hands?
Perhaps so, JJG... Hoping stronger hands is where the coins end up! I'm sure a lot will go to Blackrock and Fidelity for their ETFs that people are buying a lot of, and hodling...  

I doubt that is a preferable state of affairs, even though it may well be the case that the stronger hands are currently the owners of the ETFs, since people are not actually holding their coins if they have ETF shares and they tend to not even have a right to self-custody their coins.. .so not exactly preferred but it could be the case that several of the ETF providers are buying coins with other people's money who buy those ETF shares.

It would be difficult to argue that the ETFs are the preferred way of holding bitcoin  in terms of either financial sovereignty of individuals and/or having the power to move the coins or to protect them from certain kinds of attacks by 3rd parties (such as the ETF administrators) or even governmental entities that might undermine bitcoin through such instruments - even if the thread might not seem obvious at the moment, and even though bitcoin cannot stop folks from coming to it and creating financial instruments upon it, so it might be up the market to figure out how those things are valued and the extent to which bitcoin still has value if hardly anyone is holding their own coins and if the custody of coins transfers into third party owners and/or the administrators of ETFs and various other derrivative product administrators, whether referring to MSTR like products or otherwise.
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November 05, 2025, 05:12:15 AM

Saw this news, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/bitcoins-november-sell-off-worsens-as-investors-take-risk-off-on-worries-about-the-ai-trade-.html

I had no idea Bitcoin fell below $100K until I saw the news, but it looks like it’s already starting to recover.

Hold on, brothers... this isn’t the first time we’ve seen something like this. We’ve been through it together so many times before. Bitcoin might fall again and again, but it always finds a way to recover just as many times.
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November 05, 2025, 06:01:15 AM


Explanation
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November 05, 2025, 06:19:34 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Looks like Fidelity ETF had it's worst day, maximum outflow -$357MM or they had to sell around BTC3.570! Blackrock on the other hand had $0 they didn't buy or sell any corn. Someone collecting lots of corn through sneaking Fink.
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November 05, 2025, 07:01:12 AM


Explanation
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November 05, 2025, 07:20:03 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), LoyceV (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Paashaas (1), d_eddie (1)

I personally do not agree that the bull market is over, for one simple reason. And it is that there was no such thing this year at all. It was a year with multiple crashes and recoveries, each time going 1-2% higher than the previous ATH. I would define this as a sideways movement with an indication of an upcoming bull market. Even now we are 20% below the last ATH and at level 0 compared to the beginning of the year. At the moment there is one unknown and that is whether this crash is not due to a still unknown to us large bankruptcy like FTX, sales of a large amount of bitcoins by a large investor like Tesla, etc. If this is the case, we will have a bear market, despite the fact that we have not had a bull market. Whether in a year we will hit -80% as we always have and will "rejoice" at prices of 30K or whether we will hold at some higher level like 100K, 90K, 70K,... I do not dare to predict. But I am partially prepared for this. Based on my expenses from the previous 4 years, I gradually sold over 110K for the next 4 years of life expenses. I also bought a new car for 100K euros, so I hope I will not have any new major expenses so that I do not have to sell at prices about 30K. Yes, it will be unpleasant for me to drop out of the status that I virtually had at 126K, but this is a choice that I have always made. It is better to feel poor and humiliated than to have sold too much and watch the price break through 150K, 200K, etc. without it bringing me any benefits. Not to mention that in just 5-6 years the current 1m will be equivalent in purchasing power to at most 500K, or maybe 100K.
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November 05, 2025, 07:36:16 AM
Last edit: November 05, 2025, 10:03:01 AM by Paashaas
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Bitcoin reached the bottom of the consolidation channel tapped the 50 week moving average which happens 3 times before followed with a strong pump.

A $26,000 red candle is heavy but no reason for drama. There is no such thing as a bear market just a massive beartrap.

Market maker will hunt those billions in short above $120,000+ range.

Going tot the gym have a splendid day.
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November 05, 2025, 07:47:35 AM
Merited by LoyceV (2), El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1), Hottiek (1)

I see a lot of dip coming my way.

Maybe I finally get a decent amount of coin.

If you are even in a position to buy a bunch of coin, then you are and have been too much in cash.  

But, hey. What else is new?

You try to act like you are sufficiently in, but you are not.  You are always hedging for downs that may or may not end up happening.



Searing's Adage on Bitcoin
------------------------------

1) If 'everyone' says Bitcoin is 'pumping' you will get in when it is 'dumping'.

2) If 'everyone' says Bitcoin is 'dumping' you will get in when it is still 'dumping' just lower down the chain.

3) If 'everyone' says Bitcoin is going sideways....you will 'wait' to buy because it is too high or not low enough....when stable on sideways..it confuses you.

4) IF when you buy everyone and else sells (buddies) and when you sell everyone else buys (buddies) and they get mad if they are not informed of your actions before

hand....you have a problem

5) Bitcoin is a "merciless bitch' so don't time the market above...just HODL and at least accumulate some more btc dust.....failure is your friend it forces

you eventually to HODL.

The above is 'mostly' correct but only applies to me personally....which I guess I should be thankful for...above 'beat me into HODL'ing' all these years.....stupidity on the

above and failure saved me and made me the HODL'er I am  since 2015 (coward..cower and HODL) ...I am today.....sheesh....lame but hey it seems to still be working.


Meanwhile, Bitcoin,  the 'merciless slut' is out on the street again...lowering price to flash her knickers at the world and make my blood pressure boil....grrrr....

she will come back right, she loves me right,....she won't crush my dreams? grrrr....








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November 05, 2025, 08:01:12 AM


Explanation
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November 05, 2025, 08:32:38 AM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Bitcoin reached the bottom of the consolidation channel tapped the 50 week moving average which happens 3 times before followed with a strong pump.

A $26,000 red candle is heavy but no reason for drama. There's is no such thing as a bear market just a massive beartrap.

Market maker will hunt those billions in short above $120,000+ range.

Going tot the gym have a splendid day.

Following with -insert meme star wars figure: its a trap-

following with going to the gym, a lot of programming today.
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November 05, 2025, 09:01:15 AM


Explanation
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November 05, 2025, 09:44:20 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), cAPSLOCK (1), Paashaas (1), d_eddie (1)

Spoiler: (mostly) OT

Following up on the Muscarin experiment.
I had a night of energizing sleep. Surprisingly, because i used to wake up at the same level of tiredness than i went to sleep.
Next thing i noticed was the good old Earworm generator got energized as well (Sleep Token's "Infinite Baths", FYI).
It was harder to follow through conversations with simultaneously present background noises, which were all feeling annoying and almost overwhelming again, and a hint of the ability to (intentionally keep) focus was still there, leading to the assumption of a half-life in the range of 4-5 hours. It reminded me a little bit of Ritalin, but mixed with Benzodiazepine. Blood flow was considerably improved, but blood pressure was also lowered. My wife complained my body being to "hot" when we went to sleep, sadly she was speaking only of temperature. The bowel got activated, but not in unpleasant ways. I'd call step one a success. It was showing me what the Attention Deficit and Hyperactivity in adult AD(H)D really means by completely stripping those symptoms for about 8 hours, and gradually fading them in again in about the same time.

A little introduction into AD(H)D:

Imagine you want to dig a hole in the garden, you go outside to the shed, already thinking about something else, when the the grass suddenly catches your attention for being a little too high. So you open the door to the shed and look at the mower and think "this needs to be done first". While filling the tank, you notice foliage lying around the trees, so you get the rake and start making piles. An hour later, you notice you got thirsty, need to pee and leave the garden for taking care of that inside the house. Inside the house, you notice the dishwasher peeping it's ending score,  so you take out the stuff and put it away, to discover that the dishwasher could need a quick clean, which you do thoroughly for the next 40 minutes or so, but then you really feel you got to goo and take a pee. In the bathroom, you remember the hole you wanted to dig.
So out to the garden again, your eyes are catching the mower, so you start it up and turn around, look at those piles of leaves and think you best gonna put it away before mowing, so you stop the mower and do just that. You get done in 10 minutes but the wheelbarrow got dirty in the process, so you clean it, even more intensive that needed, when you find the wheel could need new bearings. Luckily you have impulse-ordered some a few months ago in foresight. So off to the basement to look for the bearings, which are found after half an hour, but not beacuse they were stowed away somewhere deep, but you walked by a pile of clothes that definitely needed a wash, right now. But before you could do that, the washing machine needs to be emptied, the clothes hung up, and wrinkle-free at best too. You had to keep the bearings in one hand, not to forget about what your original plan was, and to lay them to the side and forget where you put them in a few seconds.
OK, so bearings changed in a matter of minutes, but when putting back the tools you needed, you notice that you're really thirsty, go inside take a glass out of the cabinet and notice it's not perfectly clean, which makes you look at every glass in the same cabinet, putting the not perfectly clean ones aside and start cleaning them, which really gets you more thirsty, but you know, if you don't finish the current task now, you will probably never do it. Later, all the glasses are dried, clear and back in the cabinet, but ordered by size and shape, which took another five minutes. Then you take one and drink some tap water. Feels great. A little later, while reading the newspaper and drinking some freshly brewed coffee, you remind that damn hole again (do you too?), so it's off to the garden again where you spot the mower. DAMN!
Mowing the lawn for one hour, putting it all away, but you really have no time to clean things now. You run to the shed, grab the shovel and look at a pile of tools you wanted to clean last time, but they are all stained and dirty.
The story is already long enough, so i'll fast forward:
In the evening, you have perfectly cleaned all your tools in the shed, but you feel quite wasted, suddenly you remember that appointment you missed and start thinking "i should call. How would i apologize? I need a good reason, so lets find one..." probably not making that call this evening, but maybe tomorrow, and.... HOLY FUCK, did i even dig that hole??!! (Which makes you feel terribly useless for the rest of the evening, and probably the next few days too, so you decide to cancel all phone calls and meetings).
Three days ago, i wouldn't even remember what the purpose of this little story was, mid-typing.

I wrote that on 40+mg of mushroom powder, which is yesterdays dose halved, and that's probably why it didn't get a mess, or more messy than it already got. Quite stringent, i think, and i even remember what i wrote, what this posting is (or should be) about and that i have to go buy some important things next. These three things, i surprisingly remember today. I didn't have to scroll up dozens of times to remember what i already wrote. I didn't spot errors, i hit the backspace key about 20-30 times less often than usual. I feel confident to send this post without feeling the need of editing it a couple of seconds later (and rinse/repeat that for a few times).

My earworm reappeared shortly for a few moments while typing this, my coffee cravings returned, but less intensive. I finally feel something like being aware of time passing. Yesterday felt like the day had two extra hours.
It seems that the sweet spot of dosage is around 60mg for the current batch i ordered, which should last for two years after doing the maths, and it feels truly life changing.
So if you know somebody close to you who is battling ADHD and doesn't tolerate stimulants well or wants to get off amphetamines that his/her insane doctor prescribed, and this person is able to safely dose, take and secure substances (for those with kids) which are not approved, this might be well worth a try.

Now i won't bother you with OT any longer for today, i finally have a plan for the day, i even remember it quite well and now it's time to go on with it.


In all excitement, i missed the Bitcoin funeral yesterday. Sorry  Grin
Have a nice day.

EDIT: OK, quickly re-reading, i did find a few minor errors, but i was able to leave them as they are. This is not the me i got used to, but i like some things about it.
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November 05, 2025, 10:01:13 AM


Explanation
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November 05, 2025, 11:01:18 AM


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November 05, 2025, 11:45:53 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)

I hear Willy and Markus will be returning shortly  Wink
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November 05, 2025, 11:46:10 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

Here we go again... More day price heat maps! This time I plotted the day closing price, and also all ATHs from 2016 up to October 31, 2025. Without further ado, here are the heat maps:

Day Closing Price (2016 ~ 2025)



Just look at that blood red color. Isn't it beautiful? Like the dawn of a fine day.


All-Time-Highs (2016 ~ 2025)



...getting a glimpse of Bitcoin's peaks throughout its history. More such dots to come, and brighter, for sure!

Have fun everyone!
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November 05, 2025, 12:01:21 PM


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