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November 20, 2025, 04:04:58 AM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26881948 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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November 14, 2025, 05:01:13 AM


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November 14, 2025, 05:22:56 AM

sandwich 🥪


 low carb I hope
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November 14, 2025, 06:01:15 AM


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JayJuanGee
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November 14, 2025, 06:09:53 AM

I am always at awe when the stupidest, most expected scenarios unfold (like the current setup)...makes the 'game' look rigged or at least pre-ordained.

Whatever looks obvious to you does not look so obvious to me.  Call me a dummy.

OT: the captcha comment: Can a book glide in the air? hmmm...it depends on what you consider gliding and when dropped from what altitude  Cheesy

Depends on if the book is open or closed, too... or if it is a paper back or hard cover.


Yeah but.  This time is real.

$100k is officially boring AF.
Stop waving the "do something stick"!  Smiley

But just here to say...  hang tight friends, s'gonna be ok.

How do you know that it is going to be o.k.?

I had a buy order hit in the lower $9k territory, and that order did not fill during the first round (wasn't that around 10 days ago?).. anyhow, it hit this second round, and so far we got a low of $96712 - my subsequent buy orders are every $3k until the lower $70ks and then the become every $2k.. I hope we don't get that low.  I will start to worry, perhaps if we get into the mid-$80ks, and then if some pretty BIG liquidations start to take place.  That surely would test the solidness of the various players... including a good number of those leveraged treasury companies.

Maybe folks are worried about a potential contagion and cascading based on leveraged treasuries starting to fail.. I have a hard time imagining that we go below our April 6 low of $74,434... but never say never.

So much winning.

You should feel good that you are hedged.

Why so bitter?  You hedged yourself.  Most similarly situated folks did not hedge. 


Just quoting this....  Before a big wave the tide pulls back.

Hopium.

First one's free.

Now on the second viewing, I am starting to wonder?  Did those three chicks live?

So today was a good dip day.  3 buys.
98.6
98.7
98.1
Now waiting to go under 96.5k for more dip.
I suspect we go to 88,888.88 by the weekend.
So get ready for more dip
Recall few months ago where these were like your sell order now they are Buys
Bitcoin is truly wonderful.
did not sell any in the 90's
have sold very very very very little all year.

I sold under 0.05 btc all year long and the sales were over 100k price level for btc every time.

Now (for the moment) you are looking like a genius.  Don't provide too many details to screw up the moment.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Even if I sound like i am just hating on winning.. congrats.

There surely are guys who don't have any dry powder..so there can be frustration to NOT have much if any dry powder during times like this... .and I am not talking about newbies.. Newbies likely should be buying at any price and the price should not matter so much, yet guys who have been in bitcoin for a couple of cycles or so sometimes would like to have at least some dry powder for times like these...    Yet I cannot blame them if they don't especially if they are still regularly buying bitcoin .. then in those cases they might not have enough money to have extra dry powder during times like these.

We have nearly a 24% dip from our $126,272 top on October 6 until our so far bottom of $96,712 from about an hour and a half ago as I type this post

100 is back in the menu

added 1% to my stack.  the dip was tasty

It would be quite difficult for me to add 1% to my stack, even though if you recall summer of 2023, I had reported being involved in an "accident" in which I was the beneficiary, and I probably ended up adding several percentage to my stack in and around (and because) of that incident. .. maybe 2.5% or arguably 3%?  When I tell the story in real life people's eyes kind of glaze over... hahahahahaha 

They don't know the percentage of my holdings, but they are kind of like in a state of awe.. and perhaps even wondering if I might be pulling their legs... .. It can be tough to tell some kinds of stories, whether in the real world or even on the webs, because there can be reluctance to give all of the details.

the question is:
 more dip or sideways or uppity?

That is always the question.

If the price is going down without a lot of support or some kind of a BIG bounce back... The beartwats are going to continue to play it, and if some regular folks are dumping, then they will exacerbate the dumps by throwing some of their own coins into the mix.. and sure they hope to get their coins back, but they don't care because they are hedged in areas outside of bitcoin..

In other words they are happy to take a loss for the cause.. but they should not want to end up looking like the German government from summer of 2024.

I am not going to claim to know.. even though it seems the downity momentum is continuing (until it is not).. and yeah.. maybe you are right about the $88k thing, but i hate to give you any credit before it ends up happening, since the trend could clearly reverse prior to getting even close to that low.  I'd rather call it after it happened rather than before it happens.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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November 14, 2025, 06:10:17 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

The bubble appears cancerous.

The absence of a proudhon post is troubling.

The cobra keeps biting.

The cake is a lie.

Ants are our only hope now.

If you're a WOer, you know.
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November 14, 2025, 06:30:43 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (5), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), goldkingcoiner (1), asUHWEceyc (1)

If my maths are right, in the last year (Nov24-Nov25) ETF gobbled up around BTC273k vs only BTC165k minted in that same period. And today Greyscale mini (ticker:BTC) with the lowest fees from all BTC ETFs (0,15%) suddenly dumped $318MM in one day the most in its history, more than Blackrock (-$256MM) or Fidelity (-$133MM). Someone is doing something funky.

Edit: for the reference Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF only held BTC48,674k so they dumped around BTC3.200 or almost 7% of their holdings in just one day  Shocked
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November 14, 2025, 06:32:55 AM

I was wondering at where all this bearishness was coming from?

Apparently, it is because the odds of a rate cut went down precipitously, which probably means that we had a bout of inflation (which has not been in released numbers yet because of a shutdown), which makes the whole setup very similar to the seventies when we had a three large waves of inflation..so far we had just one recently (post COVID)...with maybe two more to come toward the end of the decade...would be bad for bonds, less bad for stock, great for gold and, maybe, bitcoin.

Who knows, maybe a crab market until 2030-2032, then.
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November 14, 2025, 06:39:58 AM

Who knows, maybe a crab market until 2030-2032, then.

That means that the odds are increasing that I will be 100k satoshis poorer, and LFC 100k satoshis richer. 
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November 14, 2025, 06:54:50 AM

Edit: for the reference Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF only held BTC48,674k so they dumped around BTC3.200 or almost 7% of their holdings in just one day  Shocked
That kinda makes sense: if you're not into Bitcoin for the long term, an ETF is much easier to get in and out quickly without sending large amounts of Bitcoin to an exchange.

I was wondering at where all this bearishness was coming from?

Apparently, it is because the odds of a rate cut went down precipitously, which probably means that we had a bout of inflation
None of this makes sense. Bitcoin was supposed to be a hedge against monetary inflation, but apparently a 0.25% rate cut is much more important.
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November 14, 2025, 07:01:23 AM


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November 14, 2025, 08:01:14 AM


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November 14, 2025, 09:01:15 AM


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I guess this is OK.


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November 14, 2025, 09:09:01 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)

Time to hibernate?
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November 14, 2025, 09:52:53 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Where’s my beer… just sitting here watching this dump happen.

I’m inviting all of you, I know we’ve got plenty of poetic people here, come drop something in my thread.  Grin
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November 14, 2025, 10:01:12 AM


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November 14, 2025, 10:03:42 AM

Time to hibernate?
That's Bears job. Bull don't.
Who am I kidding, the winning is too much.
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November 14, 2025, 11:01:15 AM


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November 14, 2025, 11:33:46 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


So much winning.

You should feel good that you are hedged.

Why so bitter?  You hedged yourself.  Most similarly situated folks did not hedge. 

I don’t want to talk exact numbers but I planned to take out huge money this cycle.

Not for one second did I envisage the top being so pathetic. I am fine, perfectly hedged financially but just disappointed Jay.

Looks like we have to wait years again now. I’ve been thinking about what price I should buy back in and how many coins I should buy if, as it looks, we are heading into a bear. Maybe the previous ATH of 69k is a good price to start buying.
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November 14, 2025, 11:36:15 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Who knows, maybe a crab market until 2030-2032, then.
Let the crab market remain, the cycle eventually runs its own course, I wouldn't be surprised if the market remains sideways until 2030, 32 because long-term structure always wins over noise, those who stay in the loop will be ready to take the next leg in the end. The market never rushes, but those who wait definitely get rewarded, they win in the end!
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November 14, 2025, 11:54:42 AM

Me taking chance
being aggressive
staying clam down
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