Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Charcol]

-$903MM outflow from ETFs today. Who knew that speculative assholes would speculate

For those who opened leverage last week, and thought it would be $150,000. I left the screenshot for them. The next time someone claims it, I Will them this. Maybe they thought Trump would come and give them $200,000...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Almost $1 billion longs liquidated.  

Week and monthly RSI could be more streched down with a capitulation red candle.

They are speed running the bear market for a total reset, short and heavy wrapped as the biggest bear trap ever.

[somac.]

Almost $1 billion longs liquidated.  

Week and monthly RSI could be more streched down with a capitulation red candle.

They are speed running the bear market for a total reset, short and heavy wrapped as the biggest bear trap ever.

Remember the first peak 2021 64k, a few weeks of chop then 60k, then down to 30k in 2 weeks. This is kind of running the same way, of course later in 2021 it printed a new high of 69k, no one expected that at the time. Just saying.

[BobLawblaw]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ivomm]

I don't know how stupid one has to be to had a whole year to sell over 110K and selling now at 80K. Anyone can check the stats, but I'm certain that millions of bitcoins were sold in the last month. Why are we making fun of mindrust then, at least he didn't realize a loss! And all new investors sold at a 30% loss. Not to mention the long liquidations. They have 100% losses guaranteed by default. But the same goes for all the holders who sell at these prices. This is a disgrace! For me, they can no longer boast that they were ever real hodlers who believed in the idea of ​​bitcoin. For me, they are in the same category as mindrust, regardless of the fact that they made some profit. In just a few years, they will see how their fiat is worthless and they cannot buy the things they planned. At the same time, bitcoin remains the only protection against inflation and salvation from any financial crisis or stealing by banks/governments.

[somac.]

I don't know how stupid one has to be to had a whole year to sell over 110K and selling now at 80K. Anyone can check the stats, but I'm certain that millions of bitcoins were sold in the last month. Why are we making fun of mindrust then, at least he didn't realize a loss! And all new investors sold at a 30% loss. Not to mention the long liquidations. They have 100% losses guaranteed by default. But the same goes for all the holders who sell at these prices. This is a disgrace! For me, they can no longer boast that they were ever real hodlers who believed in the idea of ​​bitcoin. For me, they are in the same category as mindrust, regardless of the fact that they made some profit. In just a few years, they will see how their fiat is worthless and they cannot buy the things they planned. At the same time, bitcoin remains the only protection against inflation and salvation from any financial crisis or stealing by banks/governments.

Amazingly stupid is all I can think of. Which makes me think this thing is coming to an end soon. Stupid people couldn't have accrued many more coins than what has already sold, surely. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[somac.]

Interesting https://xcancel.com/_The_Prophet__/status/1991789044087586861#m

This is one of the most extreme, structurally anomalous readings Bitcoin has ever printed.

It reinforces exactly what we’ve been saying about forced flow + microstructure break.

Let’s dissect it properly.

1.   The Chart Is Legit – and It Confirms the Distortion

The three core claims are:

A.  Lowest 1D MACD reading ever

This checks out.

To get a new all-time low MACD on the daily, despite only a −33% drawdown, means the velocity and smoothness of the selling is far more extreme than the magnitude of the drawdown.

That never happens in organic markets.

This is exactly what forced institutional, algorithmic, or risk-mandated selling looks like:
•consistent pressure
•no reflexive bounces
•no momentum resets
•no buyer-led intervention

Healthy markets don’t do this. Broken execution does.

B.   RSI 21 on 1D - only 4 times in 5 years

Also correct.

When you hit RSI 21 during:
•a broad risk-off collapse (2020, 2021)
•cascading liquidations (FTX 2022)
•macro shocks

…you expect massive multi-day or multi-week reversals afterward.

Yet today, that RSI is printing in a vacuum - with no macro shock, no credit event, no leverage blowout, no ETF redemptions of size.

This is compression, not trend destruction.

C.   Only -33% from ATH despite these extreme readings

This is the most important part.

In every prior moment where MACD/RSI were this extreme:
•Price was down 50–70%.
•Funding was deeply negative.
•Positioning was wiped clean.
•Derivative markets were collapsing.

But now?
•Price is down just 33%.
•ETFs (except for one day) still show net positive January - now.
•Permanent holder accumulation is at historical peak.
•Solana ETFs printing green every day.
•Microstructure is broken, not sentiment.

That is the tell.

**This is not a natural market.

This is not a real seller.
This is one or more forced entities closing risk in a broken market.**

2.  The Chart Literally Shows Structural Divergence

Look at the pattern:
•MACD at all-time low
•RSI at capitulation-level
•Price still structurally in an uptrend
•Higher highs + higher lows still intact

This is the definition of:

Microstructure catastrophe + macro strength.

If macro or cycle structure were breaking, you would NOT get:
•186,000 BTC absorbed by permanent holders in 6 weeks
•Solana ETF 18-for-18 green
•ETH holding stronger than BTC
•Forced flow during the same 9:30 AM slot for 2 weeks

This is a bottleneck, not a cycle reversal.

3.  The Seller Hypothesis Fits the Chart PERFECTLY

This chart is exactly what you’d see if:
•A distressed fund
•A broken market maker
•A forced unwind
•A liquidation mandate
•A risk-reduction algorithm

…is dumping on schedule, irrespective of price.

Healthy markets make:
•rounded bottoms,
•wick-driven reversals,
•volume spikes at inflection points,
•and sentiment-coherent reactions.

This market is making:
•forced candles
•identical timed flow
•thin liquidity breaks
•RSI/MACD extremes without macro justification
•divergence where you normally get confluence

This is clinical, mechanical execution - not macro.

4.    What This Actually Means

A.   This is NOT a 2021-style trend break

2021 break was:
•funding stress
•cascading longs
•spot selling
•macro tightening
•exhaustion of buyer demand

This is none of that.

This is:
•spot bid strong
•long-term holders buying
•ETFs still accumulating
•liquidity thin only on one venue
•macro neutral to bullish
•seller highly constrained and systematic

This is not May 2021.

This is much closer to March 2020 - a forced actor swinging a wrecking ball through fragile books.

B.  This confirms the “October 10 microstructure fracture”

The indicators align with the exact thesis we just posted:

A market maker or deep liquidity provider failed on October 10 - leaving a hole in the order book.

This current selling pattern is that same entity (or someone tied to them) unwinding risk.

This explains:
•timing
•rhythm
•pressure
•lack of reflexivity
•bizzarre lack of bid absorption
•BTC-specific stress
•“why alts aren’t breaking”
•“why ETH isn’t collapsing”
•“why Solana has massive inflows”
•“why macro isn’t involved”
•“why forced RSI/MACD divergence exists”

It fits too well.

This is not random.

5.  Final Answer

Yes, the chart is real.

Yes, it is unprecedented.

No, it is not bearish long-term

No, the cycle is not broken.

Yes, it confirms a forced seller or broken execution system.

Yes, this is the last echo of the October 10 fracture.

Yes, the unwind will end.

And when it ends, the rebound will be violent.

[BitHodlers]

What needs to happen for you to turn bullish again?

I’m mid to long term bullish, I have to be, most of my entire net worth is in Bitcoin. I just think it’s the end of the cycle, which magically (or not) has landed in Q4 of a post halving year again.

For me to be wrong (I hope I am) and turn short term bullish again, we’d need to reclaim 100k and trade above it before the end of Q1 2026. Maybe in that scenario I’d be wrong, the four year cycle would be dead and we’d power to multiple new all time highs in 2026. I really hope that’s what happens but I doubt it, I’ve seen this movie before.

Very fair view, and thanks for answering. I like that you provide a proper answer instead of being vague as some people. Let's observe what happens in the remaining days of this quarter or in Q1 of the next and get back to this post at a later time.

Unfortunately with Bitcoin falling 30% so quickly for absolutely no reason whatsoever, people are not going to be interested in investing in such a volatile and risky investment even tough some talking heads call Bitcoin a 'store of value'. There needs to be some faith healing...because investors are abundantly losing faith in Bitcoin..  

If you think 30% is a lot, don't look at the stock market lol.

Almost $1 billion longs liquidated.  

Week and monthly RSI could be more streched down with a capitulation red candle.

They are speed running the bear market for a total reset, short and heavy wrapped as the biggest bear trap ever.

It is one or the other, we will find out soon enough. 

[somac.]

A bounce really would be nice.

70s here we come.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

A bounce really would be nice.

70s here we come.

It’s wild, relentless selling. This doesn’t happen very often, it’s like FTX, China bans, Covid and Gox.

[somac.]

A bounce really would be nice.

70s here we come.

It’s wild, relentless selling. This doesn’t happen very often, it’s like FTX, China bans, Covid and Gox.

It's rare, like a said before very 2021 like, 2 weeks, 25% down each. By all accounts I've heard this is still being driving mainly by only one or a few sellers. If that's true how the hell did they get so many coins and why sell now at these shitty prices. It's like they have a unlimited supply of coins, it's odd.

[BTCETFInvestor]

JJG - I have recently (as recent as today in fact) bought more spot Bitcoin ETF, and plan to add more in the months ahead... I'm tracking the price equivalent of more than 5 BTC.

Well, good for you in terms of the ongoing buying BTC price exposure (even though not the real corn).

JJG - I hope you can agree with me that the Abu Dhabi Investment Council is quite experienced and very capable of making good investments!

The Abu Dhabi Investment Council knows that buying spot Bitcoin ETFs is an excellent way to invest in BTC. Experienced investors do not have to buy and self-custody the coin to reap the future gains in BTC we all expect!

Abu Dhabi Council Triples Bitcoin ETF Stake: The Abu Dhabi Investment Council nearly tripled its stake in BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (Ticker: IBIT)

► https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/cryptocurrency-news/abu-dhabi-triples-bitcoin-etf-stake-despite-losses/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

I don't know how stupid one has to be to had a whole year to sell over 110K and selling now at 80K. Anyone can check the stats, but I'm certain that millions of bitcoins were sold in the last month. Why are we making fun of mindrust then, at least he didn't realize a loss! And all new investors sold at a 30% loss. Not to mention the long liquidations. They have 100% losses guaranteed by default. But the same goes for all the holders who sell at these prices. This is a disgrace! For me, they can no longer boast that they were ever real hodlers who believed in the idea of ​​bitcoin. For me, they are in the same category as mindrust, regardless of the fact that they made some profit. In just a few years, they will see how their fiat is worthless and they cannot buy the things they planned. At the same time, bitcoin remains the only protection against inflation and salvation from any financial crisis or stealing by banks/governments.

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

A bounce really would be nice.

70s here we come.

It’s wild, relentless selling. This doesn’t happen very often, it’s like FTX, China bans, Covid and Gox.

Bitcoin never failed to surprise.


EDIT: We may (continue to) bounce here:

[somac.]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Huge volume of $144 Billion in the past 24 hours and nearly $1 Billion in positions wiped out in just one hour!

► https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-billion-wiped-1-hour-114457045.html